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IWM

The Week Ahead: XBI, ARKF, ARKG, BITO, ARKK, KWEB, IWM/RUTEarnings: TSLA (63/69). Announces on Wednesday after market close, so if you're looking to play the volatility contraction, look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's session or, if implied volatility afterglow persists, early Thursday after it has made its move. If NFLX earnings is any indication of whether TSLA will "behave," you may want to consider waiting until after the announcement to avoid a repeat of "the Netflix experience." As it is, the January 28th options are pricing in something bigly: +/- $82 or so, so 862 on the put side, 1026. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Rank >70%/30-Day >35%, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: Cathie Woods' funds continue to have a really bad hair day/week/month ... . XBI (100/48) ARKF (97/59) ARKG (87/66) BITO (82/85) ARKK (82/62) KWEB (74/58) EWZ (51/40) Pictured here is a bullish assumption BITO March 18th 17 short put, paying .60 at the mid price on buying power of 16.40. The broker is still requiring it to be cash-secured, so the ROC %-age is not all that sexy: 3.7% at max (25.0% annualized) as a function of buying power effect. Because of that, I would consider slapping on a cheap put to bring in the buying power effect, but the best you can currently do is to buy the 13, making it into a four-wide paying .38, and that amount isn't particularly compelling, particularly if you're going to be taking profit at 50% max. The ROC %-age is way better (9.5% at max), but I'd rather look at a setup where the long leg costs something like .05-.10, so I may stick a pin in that trade; lower strikes may populate at some point. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: QQQ (77/33) IWM (77/35) SPY (73/28) DIA (72/26) EFA (65/23) In the retirement account, I'll basically continue to ladder out short put as long as IVR/IV remains elevated. This is the exact environment in which I like to make additions on the put side: weakness plus increased implied volatility. Naturally, one begets the other. I'll also be keeping an eye on net portfolio delta to see if additional short delta hedge is required to keep me from getting overly directional which can make things more uncomfortable in a protracted down turn. I point this out because what people primarily see in my feed is "short put, short put, short put" and not the short delta hedges put on that are just kind of running in the background. There is individual trade delta, but also portfolio-wide delta.
AMEX:BITO
by NaughtyPines
IWM [Russel 2000] Inverse Head & Shoulders & BreakoutThe IWM as seen from the chart has been forming a solid and strong Inverse Head & Shoulders. An Inverse Head & Shoulders is a strong Bullish Chart Technicals Pattern, that can be seen here. 2 Shoulders, and 1 head in the middle, making the low. I am sharing this idea, as it is a pattern which has been printed on the Russel-2000 this past week, and can't go unnoticed! The Russel-2000 Index has also been in a YEAR-long consolidation, and is ready to make a move one way or another. On the weekly time frame of the Russel, the TTM_SQUEEZE Indicator a momentum indicator that can also predict big moves has been flashing red (signaling squeeze) and that a big move is coming one way or another. AFTER This recent breakout attempt in November from IWM, and a retest of the bottom consolidation levels, the russel seems ready to bounce up with this inverse head and shoulders, or make a break down. I think this is something to definitely keep on your radar folks! Good Luck Trading! I am personally looking at playing this with either : IWM febuary monthlys OR $URTY a 3x leveraged russel ETF
AMEX:IWMLong
by ZachSap
IWM trade update, and more swing putsIn my previous chart (linked) I gave notice of IWM breaking down from its range. The upper gray line marks the lowest close of the sideways range, and the lower line marks the dip last January. There is a lot of air underneath. I took profits on the dip to 205 yesterday. Today I bought 18Feb puts again at the 208-209 resistance. Now looking at 198 break, then 193, 185. fyi - My option swing trades usually last 1 day to 2 weeks. I only use long calls or puts, single leg.
AMEX:IWMShort
by OptionsRising
2
Opened (IRA): IWM March 4th 185 Short Put... for a 2.50 credit. Comments: Sold premium right at the close in the expiry nearest 45 days to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps. Holistically, I've been using IWM for shorter duration trades (~45 days until expiry) and SPY for longer duration ones (since it doesn't pay as well as a function of buying power effect), and then coupling that with a longer-dated short delta hedge or hedges. (See, e.g., Post Below). I'm still net delta long, just not as long as I would be were I to be all short put without some kind of short delta aspect.
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines
2
$IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets $IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets Well, here comes that 201 Death cross on the daily Lot’s of resistance to the up side GL, y’all… —————— I usually trade both ways, but lately I’ve been focusing more to the downside because of how high the market is. It makes more sense to sell puts right now, and I’m usually at Target 2 or 3. —————— I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence. I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news. If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time) Have fun, y’all!! (\_/) ( •_•) / >🚀
AMEX:IWMShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
The Week Ahead: NFLX, ARKF/ARKG/ARKK, XBI, KWEB, URA, IWM, QQQI haven't done one of these in quite some time, but thought I'd do one over this long holiday weekend. Earnings: I looked at a number of these for next week (there are quite a few) and have culled things down to the most liquid options underlyings, ideally with implied volatility rank >70% and 30-day greater than 50%. Only NFLX really fits that bill, even though it's a smidge shy of a 50% 30-day. For instance, I did look at CTXS (87/46), but when I dug into the options table, I wasn't fantastically excited about setting up a short strangle with only 2.5 to 5-wides where I'd want to set up my tent on both the put and call sides. NFLX (76.9% rank/44.8% 30-day) announces earnings on Thursday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of that session if you're looking to play the announcement for a volatility contraction. Pictured here is a February 18th 450/610 short strangle with the legs camped out at the 13 delta. Paying 9.20 at the mid as of Friday's close on buying power of 52.59 (on margin), it has a 17.5% ROC at max, 8.7% ROC at 50% max. I like to go wider with earnings announcement volatility contraction plays since these do one of two things: (1) come in immediately; or (2) give you headaches for several cycles if the move has been overly large and you have to defend the setup to scratch in a contracted volatility environment. If you're more of a defined risk bent, throw on some wings: the February 18th 440/450/610/620 iron condor is paying 1.90 on buying power effect of 8.10, 23.5% ROC at max, 11.7% ROC at 50% max. Naturally, these are just preliminary pricing and strikes. You'll want to adjust strikes as necessary, since the underlying is likely to move somewhat running into earnings. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Implied Volatility Rank >50% and 30-Day >35% and Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: ARKF (84/52) (Cathie Woods' Fintech Innovation) XBI (83/43) (Biotech) ARKG (79/59) (Cathie Woods' Genomic Revolution) KWEB (60/51) (China Internet) ARKK (59/44) (Cathie Woods' Innovation) URA (41/59) (Uranium) A lot of Cathie Woods' stuff in there ... . I like to reserve these for the monthlies, since the weeklies aren't all that liquid in some of these. Unfortunately, the February 18th monthly is a little short in duration for my tastes (33 days until expiry) and March a bit long, so will probably hand sit on deploying buying power in this area until the March monthly's duration shortens -- it's currently 61 days, and I like to keep things +/- a week or so of 45 days. One underlying that doesn't really have a 52-week valid implied volatility rank is BITO (1/68), since it hasn't been around for 52 weeks yet. However, that "1" indicates that its implied is low within the range its established since inception, and I'd naturally prefer it to be higher even though its 30-day outranks all of 30-days I've got in my little list, so I'm keeping an eye on it, having just exited a BITO short strangle on Friday. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: XLK (46/27) QQQ (43/25) EFA (35/17) IWM (36/26) DIA (24/18) SPY (23/19) I've moved XLK from my exchange-traded fund grid to my broad market grid, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.87 90-day) and an even closer correlation with QQQ. XLK is about half the size of QQQ, so if you like to layer on, it's a little more nimble for that purpose. I've been selling premium in small caps (IWM) in the weeklies to bide my time while monthly setups come in or have to be managed, but may consider sticking some of my pickle into QQQ next week given the fact that its rank implies that it's more "expanded" (if that makes any sense). I'd probably use the March 4th expiry, where the QQQ 16-delta 342/408 is paying 5.69 on buying power of 48.03, 11.8% ROC at max, 5.9% at 50% max. Naturally, the market may look entirely different from an implied volatility standpoint coming off a long holiday weekend, so I always have a second look at whether doing that is worthwhile once the market opens.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
5
Week 4, 2022: Market ExpectationsFor Week 4 I am expecting positive movement in the S&P 500, with not all sectors participating. I expect tech to have a dead cat bounce, maybe early in the week, especially when viewed on the equal weight QQQ. I believe it will be a bull trap before moving lower. The most bullish market, and that is used loosely, is the IWM. It looks like it could be forming a bottom, but it might need all winter to firm up. Time will tell Finally, Oil appears to be ready to break out to new highs again. I'm not saying it will be this week, but I wouldn't expect it to break too low this week. Maybe energy will rest for the week, but it might be a place to load up. S&P Equal Weight QQQ QQQ Equal Weight Small Caps Oil
SP:SPX
by SpartyPA28
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The DJT is also similar. The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias. The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed. All the above have MACD technically bearish bias. The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual. The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so. I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend. I hope we get some committed trend soon! Stay safe!
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
IWM - is stochastic warning of a major support break?IWM has been rangebound for almost one year now. Price was around highs of 170 before the "Covid drop." The 212 area is strong support, but it may break soon. Since price broke out of the upper resistance and fell right back into range, a break of support may soon follow. Let me explain how I use stochastic %K warning signals, which usually lead price movement. My custom setting is 10-period %K and 7-period %D (I do not use D-slow), which I find to work well for my day and short swing trades. When %K (blue line) drops from above 80 to under 20 in 2-3 candles, it warns of more selling, and the corresponding price candles are usually innocuous. Usually I look for price to bounce first and then make a significant drop, as happened at the end of October (white oval). %K gave a warning signal and was followed by a quick reaction bounce before a larger selloff. Sometimes, as is happening now, %K will give a warning and it is followed by lower RSI and continued selling. This signal does not work 100% of the time, but I use it regularly with high success to enter long option trades. Also, the same is true in the upwards direction; a sharp rise in %K from under 20 to over 80 signals a stock will soon make a significant move up. On 6 Jan I bought two put positions when IWM was 218-219: 21Jan 215 strike and 18Feb 210 strike. With markets dropping sharply right now, wait for a good entry. IWM should retest 212 and if it bounces up again instead of breaking support then I have plenty of time to exit Feb puts without a big loss.
AMEX:IWMShort
by OptionsRising
3
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern. Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap. TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish. TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu. VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps? ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come. So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader