2/13/22 LMTLockheed Martin Corporation ( NYSE:LMT )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 107.893B
Current Price: $396.19
Breakout price: $396.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $384.80-$369.85
Price Target: $416.00-$420.00 (1st), $434.00-$442.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 103-110d (1st), 211-221d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $LMT 6/17/22 400c, $LMT 9/16/22 400c
Trade price as of publish date: $19.40/contract, $25.30/contract
IWM
Rolling (IRA): IWM February 25th 193 Short Put to March 31st 178... for a .58 credit.
Comments: The 193 isn't at 50% max yet, but it's the highest strike I've got in my short put ladder, so taking the opportunity to both realize a little gain, strike improve, and receive a credit for doing it. Total credits collected of 2.09 (See Post Below) +.58 = 2.67 relative to a current price for the March 31st 178 of 1.93, so I've realized gains of .74 ($74) so far.
Rolling (IRA): IWM February 18th 194 Short Put to March 25th 178... for an .83 credit.
Comments: With only 7 days to go, rolling down and out to the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 3.53 (See Post Below) + .83 = 4.36 relative to the March 25th 178's current value of 1.80, so I've realized gains of 2.56 ($256) so far.
$IWM Russel 2000 - Small caps previous support now resistance?Small caps tend to lead the market. Not a great picture as we saw a strong reversal off previous support yesterday. Technically we have the 50dma trading below both the declining 200day sma and emas. The moving averages are pointing down and we are still under the anchored vwaps from the previous highs. We also seem to be forming a rising wedge formation which are usually continuation patterns in the direction of the previous trend (currently down). Not much to be bullish about in this chart, so odds are in favour of further downside, unless we can climb above a mountain of significant resistance levels above (something which seems unlikely at this stage).
2/9/22 TECKTeck Resources Ltd. ( NYSE:TECK )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Other Metals/Minerals)
Market Capitalization: 19.179B
Current Price: $35.95
Breakout price: $34.75 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.10-$29.85
Price Target: $38.20-$38.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 58-60d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $TECK 5/20/22 40c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.88/contract
2/9/22 BILLBill.com Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BILL )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: 25.38B
Current Price: $247.48
Breakout price: $260.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $222.85-$179.70
Price Target: $302.00-$309.00 (1st), $344.00-$352.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 36-39d (1st), 58-62d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $BILL 3/18/22 270c, $BILL 5/20/22 300c
Trade price as of publish date: $9.50/contract, $16.00/contract
2/9/22 SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp. ( NASDAQ:SBLK )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: 2.726B
Current Price: $26.66
Breakout price: $27.30
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $23.95-$21.95
Price Target: $30.70-$31.20 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 77-82d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SBLK 5/20/22 25c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.00/contract
2/9/22 CEIXCONSOL Energy Inc. ( NYSE:CEIX )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Coal)
Market Capitalization: 1.004B
Current Price: $29.13
Breakout price: $29.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $26.95-$24.05
Price Target: $32.50-$32.80 (1st), $36.20-$37.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 22-25d (1st), 41-46d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $CEIX 3/18/22 25c, $CEIX 6/17/22 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.90/contract, $3.80/contract
1 to 1 correction complete on IWM, looking for a 5th wave and 3kSo many growth stocks look similar in that we see large flat 3 wave corrective action that appears complete to me. This could be the blow off beginning. Typical for 12 months from tightening to top. Maybe its faster this time we shall see.
Rolling: IWM February 25th 197/198 Short Strangle to March 18th... 199 short straddle.
Comments: As with my February 18th IWM tight short strangle, rolling out my February 25th to the March 18th 199 short straddle for a 4.24 credit. Total credits collected of 12.80 relative to the March 18th 199 short straddle price of 14.46, so also still slightly underwater. I'll continue naturally continue to do defensive adjustments as necessary to keep these setups from getting too directional.
Rolling: IWM February 18th 198/197 Short Strangle to March 11th ... 199 short straddle for a 4.24 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gains by rolling the tight short strangle out to the March 11th 199 short straddle with 14 days to go. Total credits collected of 12.10 relative to the March 18th 199 short straddle price of 13.01, so it's still slightly underwater (credits collected are less than the current price of the setup).
Opening (IRA): IWM April 14th 160 Short Put... for a 1.73 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in the April monthly as part of a longer-dated strategy to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market using SPY, IWM, and QQQ. Targeting the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Will generally look to roll at 50% max.
Leading Indicators Reversal in ProgressInteresting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce...
JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound.
MACD still in bear territory.
IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have retraced hard, and bounced off a support. MACD crossed and still in bear territory... may not be over. sus.
TIPS failed a support and does not seem to be recovering, not bouncing for the matter. MACD appears to be recovering though. This one is rather odd, so I would just note and leave it for now.
TLT is not bullish as one would expect it to be. In fact, it looks bearish, which is favorable (bullish) for the equity markets.
VIX failed a solid break out and looks to be finding 16 again, signalling the interim volatilty is over and more bullish markets to prevail.
/HG Copper futures are held in a tight range and appear to be recovering this week - if it can hold steady and break out. MACD is not yet bullish.
Overall, the leading indicators are signalling an interim bottom. perhaps a larger than expected rebound should follow in the coming weeks...
Rolled (IRA): IWM March 11th 171 Short Put to March 18th 181... for a 1.24 credit.
Comments: After a few short days, this one's already at 50% max, so I rolled it out to 16 delta strike in the expiry nearest 45 days. Total credits collected of 2.59 (See Post Below) plus the 1.24 here or 3.83 relative to the 181 short put price of 2.13, so I've realized gains of 1.70 ($170) by rolling here.
Opening (Margin): IWM February 18th 198/233 Short Strangle... for a 3.57 credit.
Comments: I'm pretty much in everything at the top of the exchange-traded fund board and wanted to deploy a little more buying power before the February monthly shortens too much in duration, so selling premium in the broad market exchange-traded fund with the highest background implied. 3.57 on buying power effect of 28.05 (on margin); 12.7% ROC at max; 6.4% at 50% max. Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
Opened: IWM February 25th 197/300 Short Strangle... for a 3.27 credit.
Comments: Here, just adding in a little IWM in the weeklies around 45 days until expiry while I wait for the March monthly to shorten in duration to do other stuff.
3.27 on buying power effect of 26.15; 12.5% ROC as a function of buying power effect (on margin); 6.3% ROC at 50% max.