Long $QQQ with a target of 460Near the close on Friday after break above daily anchored vwap I did buy some weekly calls looking for a bounce towards 460
I will update and manage the position on Monday
IWM
Bought calls near end of day in $DIAWe closed above daily anchored vwap late on Friday afternoon in AMEX:DIA so I did buy calls with a target towards 404
Will manage the position Monday morning
Was that it for $IWM? Do we correct before the real run?While I do think that IWM is the place to be over QQQ , I think this run has gotten a little ahead of itself.
I noticed something interesting today on the chart, if you look at it on the 6hr or 4hr, you'll noticed we tried to break above resistance on the 9am candle, and rejected hard back below it.
This leads me to believe that the next move from here is actually down, not up.
If we zoom out, the chart looks extremely similar to how it did before the covid crash. We formed a high, went down and v bottomed up into what looked like a breakout (Feb 2020), but instead formed a double top and then rolled over hard.
Now we've pretty much made the same move, we formed a high in 2021, corrected, v bottomed in Oct 2023 and now we're at the exact level where a double top could take place from the high that was formed in Jan 2022 before price broke down.
So will we have another covid style crash that brings price back to $150 or lower? TBD, but I have that feeling...
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-2 : Breakaway In Carryover ModeAs we have all experienced over the past 6+ days - outside news events can (and often do) disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns.
I've talked about the Kamala-Crush event (just 10+ days ago) that disrupted market trends after Biden stepped down from running for POTUS in 2024.
I've talked about how capital would shift away from risks because of the sudden shift in expectations.
I've talked about how this shifting capital would likely benefit the US market and what I call (major global economies) - where capital may rush into areas considered safer than most of the rest of the globe.
Then, we saw a bloody attack on Israeli children turn the world upside down with the threat of an Israel/Iran conflict.
We are now seeing Japan really become an issue with the BOJ attempting to manage risk factors related to their economy.
In my opinion, the past 10+ days have been a series of minor crisis events (some a bit more major than minor) that have played out to disrupt the US/Global markets with huge volatility.
We don't normally see 2.5 to 5.5% price swings - EVER. These types of price swings are MASSIVE.
We are living through a disruption that may go down in history related to a global shift in expectations.
But, at the same time, we've only seen the US markets fall 3.5% from the recent highs. Certainly not a CRASH event (yet).
Honestly, I don't expect my SPY Cycle Pattern to play out very well today. I believe these outside factors are really driving price action and I've clearly tried to highlight that in this video.
If & when the markets settle and move back into more normal types of price trending (away from outside factors driving price trend) - the SPY Cycle Patterns will likely fall back into a better predictive mode.
As I stated, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. The past 10-15+ days have been very unusual (to say the least). We've seen a series of events that are really unprecedented (starting with the Kamale-Crush).
Buckle up. Today could be a very interesting day if support holds. We may see the SPY attempt to rally back above $552-554 at some point.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Members Daily Analysis July 31 2024Strong AMD earnings rection pushed Semis higher....NVDA was the sympathy trade whihc became the primary.
Trimmed Disney profits.
Meta strong earnings / ARM weak earnings
Oil mega reversal / Nat gas weak.
Powell Dovish/ Yields drop /
BTC...a big move is brewing!Bitcoin keeps finding sellers off the SWB:69K previous all time high 2021 resistancce.
We have not had a definitive break above that are for quiet a long time.
If the bears reject price again were likely going back to 50K.
If the bulls can get above this level and hold some weekly closes we may have a move to 95K in a few months.
Very ley price action is set to unfold.
Use caution in this are.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 21st —>July 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/21/2024)
**SPX**-Rotation into small caps and industrial stocks continue, which led to more sell off in SPX
We have a lot of earnings coming up this week so that can shift the direction of the market as well.
Next resistance $5655and $5688
Next support $5521 and 5428
Weekly Sentiment = Bearish
**Chart Analysis:**
()
**Dollar Index:**
DXY- Looks like the dollar index found support as the euro weakens. Which means we could see further drop in SPX.
Next resistance $105.90
Support $104
Sentiment = Crossover to upside
**Put to call Ratio: 1.31 —> 1.15
Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024**
**Fear & Greed Index: 56—>49**
Is the market crashing? The SPY and IWM have completely diverged.
On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names.
A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM
Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off.
The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below.
Although this is typically bearish, we are getting into an area of oversold support.
If the SPY gaps down tomorrow, I think traders will be buying the dip with both hands.
The IWM has blasted above the 50MA, basically moving the exact opposite of the S&P500.
The question remains....are small caps going to hold their gains inside of the weekly topping tail?
MidCap vs. LargeCap. Technical & Fundamental Levels to WatchThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024.
As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD is about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50 gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC).
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999.
As of June 30, 2024 small caps price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.10, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet, while Total US Market (Russell 3000) P/B ratio is 4.42.
I'll be brief. Perhaps it will be the briefest brief over the past ten god years I'm here on TV.
DON'T MISS IT, AS IT ONE PER LIFE OPPORTUNITY.
The main technical graph is ratio between RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and S&P500 Index, and it back to support that was never seen over the past 25 years, since March 1999.
What's happened with market at these times?
⭐ Nasdaq Composite Index doubled in price over the next 12 months (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 4x down.
⭐ S&P500 Index printed +20 per cents (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 2x down.
⭐ March 1999 was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for Small caps vs Large caps.
Will history repeat itself..? Who knows... But personally I believe - Yes, it can.
is this signalling a market crash? The yield curve invesrion remains in place for the longest historical inversion run.
This cant be good right?
History shows once the spread between the 10 & 2 corrects back to normal / un-inverts you usually get a sell signal in the market.
We are observing a massive bullish wedge pattern unfolding and looks poised at any moment to breakout.
The un- inversion breakout usually happens quickly and sharply.
Small 'n Furious. Early 2020's Signaling A Big Midcap Run AheadThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is about 2% compared to a 7% gain in the S&P 500.
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999, which was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for small caps.
As of January 31, 2024 small caps price-to-book ratio is 2.01, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet.
Like a sensationally increased shares of Supermicro NASDAQ:SMCI or e.l.f. Beauty Inc NYSE:ELF , I believe many other small cap stocks can be the best ideas for 2024, in part because of that participation in the ongoing stock market rally is improving and is no longer concentrated in just ultra-mega-cap tech stocks, like it was in 2023.
If so-called breadth improves in the stock market, then small cap stocks will catch a bid.
There are three factors will help to boost small-cap stocks in 2024.
First, fund flows into the stock market are necessary for small cap stocks to outperform. If retail funds aren't flowing into the stock market, then funds likely aren't flowing into small cap stocks.
That have changed already in late 2023 as investors start to warm up the stock market.
To be clear, let's take a look at lower technical graph, so-called "AUM", or AMEX:IWM assets under management chart, that is one of the most important ETFs metrics. While it's been correlated pretty well with IWM price action over the past two years, last December has changed the rule, as managed assets smartly jumped to almost historical highs.
Second, small cap stocks are highly levered and tend to have a higher cost of capital, so a decline or no more hikes in interest rates should benefit small cap stocks much more than large cap stocks.
To be clear, let's compare two graphs: for actual U.S. Interest Rate and Expected on Dec, 2024 Interest Rate.
Finally, an expansion in economic growth could be a "huge tailwind" for small cap stocks as they are highly exposed to the domestic economy.
An overlooked area of the stock market is set to soar in 2024 after significantly underperforming the S&P 500 last year.
In technical terms, AMEX:IWM graph is near to break its 52- and 104-weeks highs, to deliver the price 50 percent higher after a breakthrough, like it did it before, on the hottest ever edge of 2020 and 2021.
Opened (IRA): IWM August 16th 191 Monied Covered Call... for a 187.46 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). Sold the -75 call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 187.46.
Max Profit: 3.54 ($354)
ROC at Max: 1.89%
ROC at 50% Max: .94%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the entire setup (stock + short call) as a unit, but won't hesitate to roll out the short call if in profit to keep my break even at or near where the underlying is currently trading.
Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish HugsSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell 2000 backlog in the first half of 2024 vs Large Cap S&P500 Index (SPX) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Nasdaq-100 indices (SPX).
As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD return was about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50% gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC).
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Thursday was a historically strange day in the stock market. That may be good news.
👉 The Russell 2000 rose more than 3%, while struggles for Big Tech stocks weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
At the same time, every stock in the so-called Magnificent Seven fell, including a more than 5% decline for Nvidia and a 2.3% drop for Apple, which dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
👉 Thursday was just the 2nd day in history since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 declined.
The split trading came after the June report for the consumer price index early Thursday showed headline inflation declined last month and is now up about 3% over the past year.
👉 The Nasdaq Composite underperformed the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percentage points in what appears to be largest ever daily gap on record.
The only other time the gap came in above 5 percentage points was in November 2020 (where broad stock rally began), right after Pfizer shared positive results from a Covid-19 vaccine trial.
What is The Russell 2000 Index in US stock market universe?!
👉 The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index.
👉 The Russell 2000 Index represents just as low as 7% of the total market capitalization, however it includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership (appr. two-third of The Russell 3000 Index components).
👉 The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.
Russell 2000 Index characteristics (as of June 30, 2024)
Price/Book: 2.10
Dividend Yield: 1.44
P/E Ex-Neg Earnings: 16.90
EPS Growth - 5 Years: 14.14
Number of Holdings Russell 2000: 1,921
Russell 2000 Index Technical aspects
In technical terms Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish Hugs
SPX & NDX to SHORT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX
Rising wedge pattern forming in S&P 500.....big banks price target forecast for fiscal year 2024 were $4800-$5600 ....eventually hitting all PT mid 2024......S&P500 fell last week and DJI rose last week with 4% percentage difference which means investors or big money booking profits from tech and large weighted stocks in S&P 500 and investing in small caps and value stocks because of low inflation and hoping rate cuts soon.
NASDAQ100 just witnessed bearish engulfing candle on thursday 11th july 2024....engulfing previous 4 days candles.
Read:https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:1590409c1094b:0-ai-super-bulls-pay-attention-to-the-biggest-divergence-since-2001-tsla-call-buyers-crushed/
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 14th —>July 19th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/14/2024)
**SPX**- As we predicted last week, market was bullish, We also saw lower than expect CPI and PPI data which pushed the chance of a rate cut to 88% in September.
Due to the chance of rate cut actually happening, we are seeing rotation into small cap stocks and industrials.
Next resistance $5626 and $5655
Next support $5490 and 5385
Weekly Sentiment = Slightly Bearish
**Chart Analysis:**
()
**Dollar Index:**
DXY- As rate cut chances increase and JPY FX started to increase, we are starting to see weakness in the dollar.
Next resistance $105
Support $104
Sentiment = Oversold
**Put to call Ratio: 1.56 —> 1.31
Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024**
**Fear & Greed Index: 54—>56**
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade 7/12 - Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern should be very interesting. Do we carry over the deep selling pressure from yesterday or do we reject the downward price trend and revert back to the previous bullish trending.
I expect a reversion back to the bullish trending setting up today. If the overnight price action were to continue downward today, the emotional selling pressure from yesterday would have been more evident.
I believe the price will attempt to find support today and could move into a short squeeze later today - setting up a possible recovery rally above $565 on the SPY today.
Of course, it is almost impossible to accurately predict future price trends, so I'm doing my best as we see this massive volatility hit.
Remember, I'm trying to help you learn to become a better trader by watching prices, learning the techniques I try to teach, and applying the best techniques possible to keep you on the right side of the price trend.
Of course, if we do see a rejection of this downward price move, it will become evident before Noon ET. If not, we may be in for an even deeper downward trend.
This is why I clearly suggested traders learn to allocate funds properly. Learning to reduce trade sizes while volatility increases is critically important—unless you like blowing up your account.
So, buckle up.
$RUT FANTASTIC STRENGTH, $NDX is the opposite!WOW what a phenomenal day!
There was HUGE volume on the TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM & it closed near the highs of the day!!!
NASDAQ:NDX on the other hand had heavier than normal volume and closed near the lows of the day
Add to the misery, bearish engulfing was formed today. NASDAQ:QQQ
Did we just see the initiation of money rotation?
IWM Rally Around the Corner?Bullish divergence is spotted on the IWM/QQQ chart, IWM is being dragged down because of Fed hawkish comments and KRE underperformance. This is a weekly chart so we need time for this to play out, I remain bullish on IWM for the remainder of the year, even just 1% of inflows from QQQ into IWM could make it go up 10%.
Short QQQ, Long IWM?The long tech trade seems to be coming to an end here. If we continue to reject this trendline, then I think the Mag 7 and Nasdaq trade could be over and you'll be better off longing "value" going forward.
On an individual stock basis, there's a number of names that look to be forming bottoms in the value space and a number of stocks (META, NFLX, NVDA, etc.) that all look to be forming tops.
Time to rebalance the portfolio around value?
The chart should be the guide should it reject and fall from here.
Understanding Technical Indicators - Avoid FaultsI received a question from a member today related to Divergence on RSI or Stochastics.
I've been lucky to actually sit down with the creator of Stochastics, George C. Lane, to discuss his indicator and how he used it to trade.
I've also been luck to be able to attend multiple industry conferences over the past 20+ years where I've been able to watch and listen to dozens of the best technicians and analysts explain their techniques.
Boy, those were the days - right?
This video is going to help you understand most technical indicators are designed based on a RANGE of bars (usually 14 or so). This means they are measuring price trend/direction/strength/other over the past 14 bars - not longer.
And because of that you need to understand any trend lasting more than 14+ bars could result in FAILURE of the technical indicator.
Watch this video. I hope it helps.
Get some.
SPQ/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7/10 - Gap Up/Higher PatternToday's Gap Up/Higher pattern in Trend mode may provide a strong price rally attempt after yesterday's somewhat non-existent Momentum Rally pattern.
I believe the lack of price movement yesterday resulted from markets waiting for Powell's comments and not wanting to get too far ahead of themselves.
Today, I believe the markets will resume trending to support the continued bullish price move and possibly make up for some of the missing price trends from yesterday.
We'll see - one way or another.
We need to see a solid upward opening price gap today - leading to a moderate melt-upward type of trend. Today's price trend may be explosive - even though we have limited data/news.
Remember, if you like my research, content, and info, share, boost, like, and visit my website to learn more.
Get some.
PRTS - Penny stock about to launchPRTS is a car parts online seller. During covid boon, the company grew agressively, so is their share price and market cap.
Since then, not much dilution, 600m NR, P/S is below 0.1!!
Issue is profitability, the company does not have a debt issue, current cash and current profitibability and FCF can last years so no dilution to be expected.
In July, they started a TV commercial campaign, insider buy at 1.09 level for 100k usd. I mean for me this is an obvious play, but at 1.10 below, ride to 2 usd easily. Even then P/S will be still 0.2 and with their transformation of product portfolio, if they post a profitable quarter end of the year, easily we will x3 here.
I put enough money that I will not be sad if I lose. I think we are at the floor prices but anything can happen, this is not classic mag7, yet I see a very nice risk reward with stop loss at 0.95
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade July 7 thru July25 - 3 Weeks AheadThanks for all your comments and boosts.
Remember, it is almost impossible to predict price range/movement 3~4 weeks in advance accurately - as I'm trying to show you with this video.
What I see happening over the next 3+ weeks is a continued rally phase for about five days, then an exhaustion peak sets up (a Last Engulfing pattern), followed by a short (2~4 day) contraction in price, leading to a FLAGGING pattern (sideways), before price attempts to move higher again on July 24~25.
If my analysis is accurate, there are two or three very opportunistic trading moves over the next three weeks. Additionally, for day traders, we will see some considerable price volatility start to set up after July 15.
Many of you have asked how I'm able to do this accurately. The simple answer is that I've been training myself to use my SPY Cycle Patterns and research/TA skills to attempt to "see into the future" with some degree of accuracy. Of course, I'm not 100% accurate all the time, but I think I provide incredible value for skilled traders.
Knowing what to expect over the next two to three weeks can provide incredible insight into planning and trade decisions. That is what my SPY Cycle Patterns are all about.
Combine that with some skills related to TA and Fibonacci Price Theory, and I think anyone could attempt to do what I'm doing on this chart with some practice.
I will state this as clearly as I can... When my analysis aligns with YOUR analysis (regarding price trends/direction/range), I believe you can be more aggressive in your trading style. Otherwise, if I tell you, the price will be choppy and consolidated, cut your allocation levels to 25~50% and trade only for quick price objectives.
I fully believe in waiting for prices to develop the best opportunities and not trying to trade every day.
I'll be updating this outlook every morning with short videos.
Go get some.
