Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update:
JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high.
IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle.
DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern.
Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap.
TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish.
TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu.
VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps?
ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come.
So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
IWM
ROTATION ? OR TRANSITION TO BEAR QQQ VS QQQE has started to show a very clear move out and is just stating to hit the Big mega caps names . I DO NOT have any sign of a bottom now ! the line in the sand is at 375.91 in the QQQ and I would think that we will see the QQQE breaking the neckline of its head and shoulder pattern that has formed .Cycles are neg now till late jan to early feb . One by one of the winning mega caps cost msft seem to have now formed a top and i look for downside to be picking up rather soon . have a good weekend and best of trades WAVETIMER
Best places to go long or short the RussellThe Russell is even cleaner than the Nasdaq. Two major buy / sell areas on the chart. So far the Russell has been playing the game of chop. Sweep the lows, sweep the highs and move in the other direction. The same way we had a failed breakout, we could get a failed break down.
Best place to sell 2310-2360. Resistance/Gap combo and the real direction for now is down, so it is with the main trend.
2200 & 2080 are decent for short term trades. As we go down they are good for a bounce. If they get broken they are good to put shorts if the market bounces from lower.
Best place to buy long term is 1980-2030. Extreme support combo with 1. Untested breakout / gap, 2. Key Bollinger bands, 3. 400 DMA
NOBODY RINGS THE BELL AT THE TOP RING RING RING WAVE B TOP From an EW view and the fact we thrust up out of a 8 month triangle I had hoping for more upside .But I feel and looking at the fact the nyse is nearing its long term target fib projection for wave 5 THE IWM looks to be ending what could be wave C up to end wave B top into .50% retracement DO NOT BE LONG THIS INDEX
Meanwhile, small caps...Small caps appear to be melting up, the index tends to fill gaps and there's a gap at my red line. Note that it's an index gap and not a futures gap so there's no guarantee on this one. Also, it's tagging along the overbought zone so it can tank at any time.
I'd stay away from garbage stocks though if you;re going long
Closed: IWM January 28th 219C/231P Short Strangle... for a 16.48 debit.
Comments: Total credits collected of 16.48 (See Post Below); scratching it out here for exactly that amount. It's possible that I could've still made money on this trade since price was in-between the strikes of my inverted setup, but my preference is to look to scratch these out if given the opportunity and then redeploy the buying power in something more productive from an implied volatility and probability of profit perspective rather than hang out in them attempting to make them winners.
Russell, 22 Dec. End of a Gigantic RangeIWM has been in a range for 329 days. It has tested the lower boundary 7 times. Many analysts now believe that 2022 will see a rotation back into value and small-caps, after 2021 was the year of the big tech corporations.
Elliott:
The range makes it difficult to determine a clean count, however we can count 5 waves to the downside in the last swing from 8 Nov. This is important because any complex correction such as the WXYXZ would complete with a 5-wave move, before price departs to the upside.
Oscillators:
The MACD crossover is imminent and the MFI is pointing upwards after a bullish divergence.
Geometry:
Price has reversed on the 50% Fib of the current pitchfork with a typical reversal doji. The next resistance is the pitchfork median at 221, potentially the end of wave (i).
How I trade it:
If we assume that the range is a completed re-accumulation, we can begin to build back long exposure. In Wyckoff terms, we would now be looking for the LPS/SOS stages. If price gives us a wave (i)-(ii) structure (in blue), we will get a H&S pattern that provides a solid bullish setup (long above wave B of (ii)). Support on the pitchfork median and a break of the 20 week MA at 224 would then signal that our assumption is likely correct.
A well-prepared entry is important because price can also exit the range to the downside. The bullish idea is invalidated if price moves out of the pitchfork altogether, which is below 202.
Fiverr Weekly setup$FVRR I have my eyes set on this for the longer term. Not interested in short term noise. Small cap company I personally believe in.
Looks like a giant falling wedge on the weekly timeframe currently into demand. I may think about starting a leap position here.
I’m not sure when but when this baby decides to reverse look at all that reward to the topside.
BNGO DBD or DBR? $BNGO I like. Look for be building a base after a big drop. Looking for the DBD or DBR. Nice pattern here.
Long over break and hold of top trend line/ Pivot at $3.41
Short below 3.16
Until $3.41 breaks I will only be watching this. Big target still remains $4. Patience will pay here.
Keep in mind we are sitting at a weekly support level so I expect a big move to either side whichever comes first. Hopefully we can see this play out within the next few days.
"most fear the unknown" iwm updatemost fear the unknown, and in turn they stay away from it,
i walk into the unknown with confidence, knowing there is always opportunity ahead.
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iwm\rty (small caps) look to be on the verge of finding a big local bottom in this local region here through an expanded flat.
the law of alternation states: "if wave 2 was a simple zig-zag, then wave 4 will have to be a complex correction".
that's precisely what we're seeing here, a little complex correction phase to really shake out the weak hands out of this wicked market.
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wave 4 target = $2067.70
wave 5 target = $2800
Rolling: IWM January 7th 222C/232P to January 28th 219C/231P... for a 2.61 credit.
Comments: Rolling my January 7th 10-wide inverted short strangle out until after the holidays to a 12-wide, but improving the short put strike a smidge. Total credits collected of 16.48, so I'm functionally long the 231's with a cost basis of 231 - 16.48 = 214.52. Put another way, my share price break even is 214.52, so I'll need movement above that level to have it work out.
Closed: IWM December 31st 213/230 Short Strangle... for a 3.37 debit.
Comments: I received a total of 4.98 in credits for the original strangle plus adjustments. (See Posts Below). Closed it out today via order to take profit equal to what 50% max of my original short strangle was. 4.98 - 3.37 = 1.61 ($161) profit.
Closed: IWM December 23rd 222.5/224 Short Strangle... for a 6.39 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 8.10 in credits for this for the original short strangle plus credits received with various adjustments. (See Posts Below). Closed it out today via good until cancelled order to take profit at what was originally my 50% maximum for the original short strangle. 8.10 - 6.39 = 1.71 ($171) profit.