IWM
that's what SL is for.recently russel broke the ceiling that was holding it for almost a year.
now it would be interesting entering a long during the retest. placing the SL just bellow last low made the 27th of october.
not because it's a safe trade but becasuse of the RR involved, since that the range has been broken, this leaves us with a proyection to the up side equivalent to the range it selve, wich is also the 1.6fib proyection of the recent impulse after the lst corrective phase.
currently the price is sitting on the 50% retracement of the move done until now.
on daily there are clear signs of a correction in act, volume is not as high as during the ceiling break and tho it made almost the sale movement.
on 4htf stochastic is starting to cross to the upside, i find stochastic the best indicator to trade russel's mid high tf, since it's a "range indicator", and in a range is where rus has been for almost a year.
on the 1H ft, there are divergences on stoch and rsi. this doesn't mean that the divergence can't follow forming.
in the end, it's a nice RR trade of 4:1, in'm already booked in at the 50%fib, and if goes to 38% i will think about adding contracts, using the same sl.
take in count that trading is not about having a 80% hit rate, that's impossible, and if some one says he does...well he was probably long during 2020/21. i mean, it doesn't surprise me that people will have had great RR these 2 years, but that shouldn't be taken as reference. the normal hit rate should be around 50% and risk managing like if your life depended on it makes your account grow steadily and constantly.
use the power of a steady compound growth rather than a yolo
and use SL, que pa' eso estàn Ramon
Rolled: IWM December 23rd 258 Short Call* to 246... for an .82 credit.
Comments: Rolled the short call aspect of my December 23rd short strangle to cut net delta in half. I originally opened this for 3.42 (See Post below) with a take profit target at 1.71, so am revising my take profit to 1.71 plus the credit received for the roll of .82 or 2.53.
The net delta of this short strangle (short put + short call) still leans long.
* -- Shown here at the 250 strike in order to fit it on the chart without squeezing.
iwm updatepreviously i discussed the requirement for iwm to break-out of the range it was in \ consolidate above it & hold to see continued upside for that final fifth wave.
we've broke out finally, but is this a real breakout, or is it just another trap?
i'd like to see it consolidate up here for at least another week before making any kind of decision.
if it could pull this off, we'll see small caps go parabolic for a bit.
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20 year count 👇
TOP ALT WAVE COUNT 249 ON DEC15 IWM THERE are 3 wave counts within the IWM VERY BULLISH WE ENDED WAVE 2 ALT is we ended a wave 4 within a diagonal and the 5th wave would end at 249 plus or minus 1.5 pts being a .618 of wave one up from march 2020 low and is wave 1 and 5 being within the 5th this is an area to which I WILL SELL OUT MY NEW 100 % LONG I WILL NOW PLACE A STOP AT 227 CLOSE ONLY . NEXT YEAR THE IWM WILL DECLINE OVER 16% MIN
$IWM Target 221$IWM Target 221
Lot’s of signs pointing down at the moment, and I have my eyes set on 221
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IWMLast week was a depressed week for small cap investors with a lot of stock reaching extreme oversold conditions not seen since the subprime crisis. The volume was also very low, which leads me to think that it was a possible tax selling reason. With the small-cap index pulling back to test the support zone previous resistance area, we might start to see next week the first signs of a rebound.
Leading Indicators panel point to a burn outLooks like the S&P500 should be running out of steam soon, based on the panel of leading indicators which most are about turning.
JNK just about broke down and topped out a pattern.
Russell2000 and the broad market Value Line failed a breakout.
VIX and TLT are about to break out.
The ES futures weekly chart have indecisive candlesticks for the past two weeks.
While not a bear trend, a likely technical retracement due...
Heads up
IWM - Doesn't Get More BearishJust another bearish post. All three of my regular indicators are now pointing to $IWM taking a dump.
Bollinger Bands, IWM is below the 20 DMA.
Stochastic flashed a bearish signal a few days ago, and is heading to oversold territory.
MACD crossed said to sell on Wednesday.
A contrarian investor would say its a good time to buy though. Persoanally, I'm selling call spreads for Dec expiration.
20 year elliott wave analysis ($iwm)someone asked me this evening if i thought iwm was in a phase of distribution right now- so i decided to take a deep dive into the entire history of this chart, and here's what i've come up with.
no, i do not think it is in a phase of distribution, instead it actually looks like a massive bull flag - in elliott wave theory terms, i'll call it a double or triple three - hard to say for now, since it is only halfway through this flat corrective phase.
my low ball long term upside target for iwm is at $335, high ball would be $375
this is in confluence with my 12 year spy analysis, you can view it down below:
ps. flat corrections can take a really long time to resolve, so i'd wait for a definitive break out, and a retest of the entire channel that it's in right now before attempting to play that upside swing.