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IWM

$BITO Ready to Run?AMEX:BITO Kathy Woods AMEX:ARKW fund sold OTC:GBTC and bought $92mm AMEX:BITO yesterday. They also sold $COIN. There is the news. I am more of a technical trader, and I like the set-up on BITO here. I have started a one third size position in the anticipation of a break above the small consolidation area or pennant. My stop is tight, just below today’s low of day. I like the fact that it is trading above the IPO AVWAP which means that by volume most shareholders are in the money. That means there is little overhead resistance at this point. It is also trading above all the moving averages. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
AMEX:BITOLong
by jaxdog
5
$XOM Undercut and Reverse?NYSE:XOM this is a remarkably simple U&R play. I have gone long with the undercut and today’s reversal from the low on December 12, 2023. That low was $97.48. It broke above that this morning. My stop is simple. If it closes below $97.48, I am out because it will tell me it is resuming the downtrend. Should it push higher tomorrow, I will add to my position. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:XOMLong
by jaxdog
$WYNN Breaking Out?NASDAQ:WYNN Looks like it may be breaking out over the horizontal area of resistance. The 40 Week MA is just above and would be nice if it can break above that too. It is above all shorter term Moving Averages including the 50 Day MA in red. Wynn is rated as an outperform or buy by many brokerage houses with price target well over $100 per share. I have started a 1/3 size position today with a stop just under the day low. I will look to add once it gets over the 40 Week MA and consolidates. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:WYNNLong
by jaxdog
$FFTY Forming a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern)?AMEX:FFTY looks to me like it is working on a VCP with volatility shrinking and forming a nice wedging pattern. I like this pattern “IF” or when the market turns positive. Here are the negative things I see, as of now it is trading below or right at the 18-month AVWAP. It is right at shorter term resistance. It is below the downward sloping wedge trendline. And the RS is still declining. On the Positive side I see current price is about 11% below the 52-week high. Price is above all the moving averages including the 50 DMA and the 40 Week MA. Price is above the upward sloping wedge trendline. Here is my trading plan, if the overall market looks good, RS breaks above the trendline and price moves above the 18-month AVWAP I will start with a one-third size position. My stop will be price closing below the 50 DMA. If it breaks out over the wedge downtrend line, I will make it a two-thirds sized position. If it can consolidate without stopping me out, I will build to a full position on any resumption of the uptrend. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. AMEX:FFTY The IBD 50 Innovator Fund is comprised of IBD’s picks for high growth stocks. The stocks represented turnover more often than most ETF’s.
AMEX:FFTYLong
by jaxdog
Opening (IRA): IWM Feb 16th 187 Monied Covered Call... for a 183.65 debit. Comments: Doing things a little bit differently here, buying stock and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate the delta of a 25 delta short put, but with the ability to immediately defend the position with the short call, rather than waiting to roll the short put. First, the metrics: Max Profit: 3.35 ($335) Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis/Break Even: 183.65 ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 1.82% ROC at 50% Max: .91% Delta/Theta: 23.1/6.31 Now, the why ... . Previously, I looked to ladder out short puts targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit and utilize a portfolio-wide short delta hedge which used buying power to put on and maintain. Here, I'm looking to manage risk on a per-position basis and to take advantage of some IV skew on the call side (i.e., the IV on the call side is greater than the IV on the put side at the correspondent put strike). Because of this, the premium/max profit is a smidge richer doing things this way relative to just selling a put. This only makes sense in a cash secured environment, where you don't get much BP relief going short put over covered call. On margin, this wouldn't make a lot of sense from a buying power efficient standpoint, so I'd use a different setup where I could manage side risk more effectively (e.g., short strangle, iron condor, Jade Lizard). Naturally, there are more BP efficient, IRA-friendly setups (e.g., Poor Man's Covered Call), but they have some warts of their own. From a trade management standpoint, I'll still look to take profit at 50% max, as I would've with the short puts and look to roll out the short call for a credit if it's tested, reducing cost basis further and improving my break even. Since I have nothing on here, I'm going shorter duration than I ordinarily would, but will start building out in longer duration at intervals as I did previously. On a side note, most people (unscientific survey, gleaned from culling through relevant Reddit posts) who "wheel" or do covered calls do not like this setup because it caps out profit, and I fully understand the preference to sell out-of-the-money calls against your stock and manage the position from there, particularly if the stock pays dividends that are decent. My personal preference, however, is to book realized gains "liberally," have a minimal of crap piles on at any given time, and generate a fairly regular cash flow. As we know from the past year, the market doesn't always go up, and the important thing is to be able to reliably make money in up, sideways, and to a certain extent, down markets with a minimum of headaches which is what these setups (out-of-the-money short puts, monied covered calls) allow me to do. Does it have a hugely sexy ROC that I can show off to chicks at bars? No. Does it pay for the bar tab? Certainly ... .
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines
$LOW Consolidation PennantNYSE:LOW has been on a tear since its Oct 27 low. The volume of buying during December 13, 14 and 15th is amazing. We now have a nice 8-day consolidation going that has formed a bullish pennant. In addition, today is shaping up to be an inside day. I do not know which way this will break but I did put on a one-third size position today with a stop just below the Dec 20th low. I will look to add to my position should it break to the upside. All TBD. See the chart for other essential information. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:LOWLong
by jaxdog
$AAOI Bull Flag?I have been keeping an eye on NASDAQ:AAOI and wanted to get in a couple of weeks ago but did not want to chase it. It has now pulled back and the last couple of days have been explosive. I took a one-third sized position yesterday (1/4/24) and added two times today to bring up to a full position. The proper or traditional entry is yet to come as it breaks above the upper downtrend line of the Bull Flag. I like to get in as early as possible so that is why I took a small position yesterday as it looked to be confirming a reversal. Today is strong so I brought it up to full size. I may look to add even more on the next consolidation level. All TBD. I have two stops. On todays add-ons it is just below today’s low. On the original buy it is below the Jan 3rd low. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
NASDAQ:AAOILong
by jaxdog
$DJI now in short term downtrend, NDX, SPX & RUT already wereLooks like the TVC:DJI is in a short term downtrend. NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX & TVC:RUT all are in short term down trends which begin couple days or so ago. TVC:VIX is at higher end of the recent pattern and it keeps poking it. *(TOOK THIS FROM ANOTHER POST Remember, the more something is poked the weaker it becomes Picture paper holding a marble Poke with a needle Poke enough & that marble falls Same works to the upside)* The TVC:TNX or10 yr #yield looks to be setting up decently on the 4hr intraday. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$KWEB Volatility Contraction or Top of Downtrend Channel? AMEX:KWEB the Chinese stock ETF is looking like a due or die situation here. The negative is that it is in a longer-term downtrend. It is now just hitting the underside of the 50 DMA; it is below the 40 Week MA and nearing the top of the downtrend channel. Here are the positives; it seems to have stopped the downtrend with a slight undercut and rally from the previous low. It is above the shorter-term MAs and looking like it might get over the 50 DMA. Looking at volume, there is buying with green volume days higher than red volume days. Here is my plan. If it can close over the 50 DMA, I will start a ¼ sized long position with a stop on a close back under the 50 DMA. If it can break above and close over the upper downtrend line, I’ll add another ¼ size. After that I will wait for some consolidation / minor pullback and resumption of up trend to bring to a full position. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by jaxdog
IWM - Russell 2000 - SHORT (Wyckoff Re-Distribution)IWM looks to be reaching the UTAD stage of a Wyckoff Re-distribution schematic. Lowering volume in the lead up to UTAD provides confluence to the idea. Expecting price to return to linear regression trend line around 120. Price could extend further, but I expect we are nearing the top of this rally and a sharp correction in 2024. Take profit level of 120 coincides with a fibo extension of 1.618, so further confluence there. Markets are overinflated and this move would revert price back to the long term mean.
AMEX:IWMShort
by BullBearBlair
$ONON Cup with Handle Formation?NYSE:ONON this high-end athletic shoe and clothing maker may be one for your watchlist. See the chart notations for technical details. I like this formation as it works more than 50% of the time. I like how it is above the IPO AVWAP. It has just tested the 50 DMA and may bounce here. The best entry would be over the upper short term downtrend line in the handle part of the formation. A more traditional entry would be as it pushes over the latest high. I like earlier entries with tight stops. I will be looking for an entry if / when it can close decisively over the 50 DMA. I will update this idea if / when I take the trade. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:ONONLong
by jaxdog
IWM: A $240 Target in 2024. Here's Why It's Doable.Flip on financial TV and you will likely hear a plethora of sellside strategists and buyside portfolio managers voice optimism about small-cap US stocks. Consider that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was easily in negative territory on the year back in October. Fast forward just two months and the small-cap ETF is up close to 20% total return in 2023. The quick switch has come about amid the group’s fastest move from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in its history. IWM is now poised to print its third-best two-month rally since its inception more than 20 years ago. Is there more room to run? I think so. A breakout above the $200 mark, particularly on a weekly, monthly, and yes, even a yearly closing basis, is significant. Recall that IWM found support in the low $160s on a few occasions in the last year and a half after printing an all-time high above $240 in November 2021. Sellers flexed their muscles three separate times in 2022 and 2023 at the $200 mark. This $40 zone appears to be breaking in the bulls’ favor. That suggests a measured move upside target to $240 – close to the all-time high on IWM. I see some near-term resistance in the $210 to $215 area – the range lows from 2021. Indeed, there is likely a significant amount of ‘dead bodies’ lingering above $210 that may look to supply the market with shares in order to sell at the breakeven mark. Still, the technicals appear positive despite some near-term overbought readings on IWM. Another cautionary signal is that the January through mid-March stretch has featured some volatility at times for the broad market, so the pace of the advance will likely slow. I remain constructive on small caps looking into 2024, though.
AMEX:IWMLong
by mikezaccardi