Ixic-nasdaq
NASDAQ broke supportNASDAQ broke a long term ascending support channel yesterday and its not looking good
The next level of support is 15800 to 15900 levels
There can be a bounce back from that level since overall there are bullish sentiments but breaking down 15800 means we might be looking at 15000 level
NASDAQ CorrectionNASDAQ strong bearish divergence formed
The correction will look like around 500 to 600 points
The next strong support 15500 . It will be a great entry point for buyers
Other analysts are also suggesting a greater correction till 14500 points but I think in an election year this is not going to be that huge correction but no one knows and who actually knows ?
VIX Index at Lowest Levels Since 2017OVERVIEW
As of 12/12/2023, CBOE:VIX is at 11.82.
There have only been a handful of periods over the last 30 years where stock market volatility is at a similar level, including 2007 and 1994.
Some would argue it implies an increasing level of volatility will be due in 2024.
What is the VIX?
The CBOE Volatility Index, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors often refer to the VIX as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it is one of the most recognized measures of market volatility.
Here's a breakdown of what the VIX represents:
Volatility Measurement:
The VIX measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated using the bid and ask prices of S&P 500 index options.
Forward-Looking: Unlike many market metrics that look at past performance, the VIX is forward-looking. It provides a 30-day forward projection of volatility.
Market Sentiment Indicator: A high VIX value indicates that traders expect significant changes (volatility) in stock prices, which is often associated with market uncertainty or fear. Conversely, a low VIX suggests low expected volatility and is often associated with market stability.
Not a Direct Stock Market Indicator : It's important to note that the VIX does not measure the direction of stock market movements. Instead, it measures how much the market is expected to fluctuate, regardless of the direction.
Use in Investment Strategies: Some investors use the VIX to help in making decisions about market timing. For example, a high VIX might suggest a market turning point, leading some to consider it a good time to buy, while others might see it as a signal to sell.
VIX Derivatives: There are various financial products, such as VIX futures and options, that allow investors to trade based on their views of future market volatility.
Risk Management Tool: For portfolio managers and sophisticated investors, the VIX can be a tool to hedge against market volatility or to take a position on future volatility.
In summary, the VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. It has become a crucial tool in financial markets for hedging, trading, and investment strategy formulation
IXIC - How I Think The Nasdaq Will Play OutMy current thoughts on the Nasdaq and correlating American markets.
I expect a higher high within this large broadening structure, followed by a large bear run for a few years. During this period it would be optimal to switch to rare metals (gold,platinum,silver) and also crypto as a hedge during these turbulent times.
Following this I expect a huge bullrun. But try capitalize on the bear movement.
Nasdaq Composite: Bond Yield Panic
IXIC has been dropping quickly due to rising bond yield e.g. US10Y and US30Y and rising volatility. Volatility is often a self-fulfilling prophecy, as many funds automatically sell when volatility rises above certain threshold, creating more volatility and causing other investors to sell.
However, the big picture remains bullish because the overall market sentiment is not panicking about recession. Also, newbie individual investors have not crowded the stock market like they did in 2020 and 2021. The Fed may start rate cutting in 2024, which will probably ignite another huge stock rally.
Therefore, IXIC may drop to 13150, the 0.5 fibonacci retracement of the 2022 downturn. Then IXIC will probably recover and retest the previous high in early September. September and October are often bad months for stocks, but the first two weeks of September might be bullish just because August has been too bearish.
IXIC is in a bulish chanelNasdaq analysis
Since December 28, 2022, when it touched the bottom of the ascending channel, it has continued its upward trend for 153 days with a relatively good slope of 24 degrees and has grown by 29%.
Regardless of the current candle, the limits of the index can be considered between the midline and the ceiling of the channel (12793 to 13647).
According to the status of the RSI indicator, it is not far-fetched to modify the index up to the midline of the channel.
If the midline of the channel is touched, a growth of 6.36% to the ceiling of the channel can be imagined.
Don't forget capital management and compliance with risk to reward.
Good luck and profitable.
Nasdaq Composite Index, IXIC, Start of a New Bull MarketIt doesn't get more simple than looking at this Monthly Chart going back over a decade. You can clearly see the incredible uptrend and the True Strength Index, although having shown a bearish divergence since Jan.2022, the TSI has barely broken the Centre line and is now about to turn back above. This New Bull Market should last through to the end of 2014. Just waiting for confirmation, and that will happen in June.
Crypto BreakoutThere is a breakout to the upside shown by the downward-sloping white channel. This marks the beginning of the bull run.
The graph is adjusted to volatility accounting from coins' dominance, and economic changes (through accounting for dollar, gold, and bond movements).
This graph is universal, use the equation or the graph as you see fit. The dollar value of Bitcoin can be tricky to trace from the graph. I'd recommend translating values to BTCUSD by estimating the %movements and finding the nearest most significant psychological levels. Don't have to be psychological levels, these have just worked better in the past.
TP (blue line): 35,000
SL: 25,400
Nasdaq is on the moveUS composite index shows that short term strong economy and inflation would moist the market.
It means short term buying opportunity is ahead right now.
Tech stocks rally may start soon.
My target is 12900and let's forget about the FED for now.
sometimes brave investment gives us a good profit.
IXIC Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for IXIC is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 10753.57, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 10207.47, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 11521.97, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Last Dip / Next Bull-Run / April 2023Zoom out to see the whole chart!
This spread graph displays Nasdaq/(Gold*Dollar). The benefits of such a spread graph are:
* Reduces fluctuations from gold or dollar
* Omits short-term/seasonal price changes of assets
The graph technically aligns with my DXY/USM2 analysis. USM2 being US Money Supply. The second spread graph portrays the same indication:
Check out my previous analyses to get a better understanding of spread graphs.
Thanks! :)
IXIC - Long-awaited Bull signalComment :
1) IXIC has been fall more than 20% since previous peak on 16-Aug, bear signal appear next day from top. And today, it finally shows up Bull signal, indicating a short-term rebound. Short-term supporting price is lowest of 17-Oct that is 10569.69, this point must not be broke else the rebound will be ended.
2) TrendX+ indicator - candleestick moving below red trendline, mid-term downtrend underway.
3) DDX+ indicator - Bull signal shows up, looking forward a short-term long position.
4) MCDX+ indicator - weak, a little of banker bar (red), while retailer bar (turquoise) has occupy more than 50%.
Support & Resistance :
S : 10569.69 +/-
DISCLAIMER :
Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
Updated Analysis on Tech (QQQ)This is the daily chart of SQQQ.
SQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders, therefore, use SQQQ to short tech stocks, or to hedge against a collapse in tech prices.
There are several bearish signals appearing in the daily chart of SQQQ, which hint that we may soon see bullish movement for QQQ and the Nasdaq.
First, there is decreasing volume in the daily chart of SQQQ, which shows that fewer and fewer market participants are opening new short positions against the Nasdaq. This is occurring even while the price of SQQQ continues to move up. This divergence is bearish and is usually the earliest sign that a reversal is coming.
Second, there are major gaps up appearing on the daily chart. Gaps to the upside on SQQQ have historically never failed to close back to the downside. Therefore these gaps should be viewed skeptically, as they fail to validate upward price action.
Third, the upper limit of the Fibonacci Bollinger Band continues to act as strong resistance, continuing the more than a decade-long trend whereby price cannot sustain itself above this line on any sustained basis. This line has mathematical importance, it reflects a level of price deviation where, after being reached, price begins to show a mean-reverting tendency back to the downside. In this case, SQQQ's mean reversion would be bullish for QQQ and the Nasdaq.
There are many other indications that are showing that SQQQ is too overextending, including the extremely over-heated Stochastic Heat Map.
The NDTH is also indicating that a very significant bottom is forming for tech and the Nasdaq. In fact, the Nasdaq is so oversold that the current levels have not been seen this the market crash of 2008-2009. Therefore, SQQQ has effectively priced in a significant recession. While a significant recession might indeed be on the horizon, if a significant recession does not ensue, then we can be fairly certain that a major short squeeze for SQQQ will occur:
However, the strongest bullish argument for SQQQ (bearish argument for the Nasdaq) is that weekly price broke through the Ichimoku Cloud for the first time ever. The only plus here is that the weekly candle is a spinning top and most oscillators are trending back down.
Regardless, with SQQQ being this historically overextended, it can represent a rare opportunity to buy QQQ and tech stocks before a massive short squeeze occurs. While anything can happen, and one should always use stop losses, this chart does not convince me that SQQQ is about to breakout much higher to the upside. Therefore, I remain a holder of tech and growth stocks for the intermediate-term.
Not financial advice. Anything can happen and trends can end.
IXIC bear trap, will skyrocket soon
This bear trap is too obvious. Now that most investors know the recession story of June 2022 was fake and irrational, there's really no basis for the major stock indexes to go much lower. However, there's probably more consolidation between 11600 and 12600 in September, as October is perceived as the traditional bearish month and investors keep panicking about the FOMC meeting. Only the most irrational and reckless traders would short near 11800, which would be guaranteed financial ruin in the long term.
Just buy as much index fund as you can, sit back and enjoy the end-of-year rally. The crazy newbie investors of 2020 and 2021 are mostly scared and liquidated out of the market right now, but sooner or later they will jump into the market with more cash, pushing IXIC to another crazy bull in 2023 and 2024. IXIC goes up, newbies got jealous, newbies jump into the market which pushes IXIC further up, making more newbies jealous... Feedback loop as they never learn.
SPX, Rate hikes and market rally !! lets share ideas.FED started rate hikes this year and so far has increased interest rate up to 2.25 %. When there was just some news about starting rate hikes market showed a sever bearish sentiment and huge decline started. Now and after 2.25 rate hike market sees 8.5 % inflation as a positive sign !!.
8.5 % is much much higher than 2 % target of FED and implies for continuation of the rate hikes. At least we know that FED will increase at minimum another 0.5 on 21th Sep . Today there were some statements by Charles Evans Chicago FED president that interest rate will be 4% at the end of next year and still market is green.
Inflation data and FED decisions are interpreted to be the market drivers since start of this year but is this true?
Numbers shown on the chart are cumulative interest rate after FED decisions. As we can see SPX today and after 2.25 interest rate is just about 2.5 % down from the day FED raised rates to 0.75 !. Strange !. Can we see higher SPX on 21th Sep ? Is it rational?
Some take this as a positive sign for the market : (( FED finally stops rate hikes next year )). OK but rate was not supposed to go higher and higher forever. It was known from the first day that FED will stop rate hikes some day.
In terms of macroeconomics, Russia -Ukraine war continues, China may invade Taiwan, Iran's nuclear deal result is unknown. Add some giants like NVDA, AMD and MU warnings to this economical climate and please let me know if you can find any positive sign.
What is actual driving force of market? It seems taking interest rates and FED actions into consideration leads to contradictory results. So, what is behind all these market moves?
What do you think about recent market rally? is it just a bear market rally or real bull run has been started from last major low?
What is your idea? Lest share our ideas and boost our knowledge.
Eager to hearing your thoughts.