Nasdaq 100 - Dip buyers about to get obliterated Yesterday, Nasdaq 100 pushed above the immediate resistance we hinted at in our latest post on QQQ. We think the rally is due to end and the bearish trend to resume. Therefore, we would like to set a new short-term price target for NQ1! at 12 250 USD. We would also like to set a medium-term price target at 12 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows yesterday's bullish breakout on the hourly chart. In our opinion, this is potentionally a perfect bull trap. Although, we will pay close attention to the price action of NQ1!; if it manages to break above the immediate resistance then it is likely that NQ1! might experience the last push higher before faltering.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI points to the upside, which is bullish; however, we expect it to break down and turn bearish soon (the same applies to other mentioned indicators). MACD strives for a bullish crossover. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- remain bearish, while ADX signals a pause in selling pressure. Overall, the daily time frame shows less bearish conditions than a week ago; although, we still maintain a notion that the current bounce in price is just a “downtrend” rally.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of QQQ.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and MACD remain bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- signal the presence of a bearish trend. ADX grows which suggests that the bearish trend has not peaked. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq Composite Index CFD
NASDAQ Corrective WaveNasdaq is currently on corrective WAVE 3 on it's way to finish WAVE 4.
Looks like it's making a Zig Zag ABC correction and if it's true, then we could see a rebound from the "BLUE zone" to close several gap there before continue it's journey to WAVE 5.
Last correction area is the "YELLOW line".
Wave 4 invalid if price's touching the "RED line".
2008 is back.*As a Korean, I do not speak English. I used a translator. I get a lot of ideas from English-speaking countries while doing stocks.
Please send us your detailed comments.
*I need the opinions of great Americans
*History repeats itself.
]
Evidence is the chart pattern and * The US economy is similar.
If my prediction is correct.
After a bit of a rebound, the real hellish bear market begins. I think it will go down to the lowest point during the corona period. March 2020
Nasdaq100 inverse Head and Shoulders Chart PatternNasdaq 100 P/E ratio on May 12, 2022 was 20.71, which is below the Median of 26.59 or the Average of 30.04.
In the past 5 years, the Minimum was 15.74 on MAR 23 2020 and Maximum 86.30 on JUN 28 2017.
I have 2 scenarios:
1. Inverse head and shoulders chart pattern with a price target of $16650 by the end of the year.
2. Worst case scenario: bull trap at $13350 an retracement to the pre-pandemic level of $9750. I tend not to believe this scenario because of the too low price per earnings ratio of NDX.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Nasdaq 100 - The relief rally is in a progressWe continue to be bearish on Nasdaq 100 index. Our view is supported by bearish technical and fundamental factors. The prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. will continue to put pressure on the economy and drag market indices lower. We expect the rally to be short-lived and Nasdaq to resume its downfall soon. Therefore, we would like to set a new price target for NQ1! to 12 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above links our bearish idea on QQQ.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX increases, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows that the weekly volume continues to increase, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over? IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over?
#IXIC #NASDAQ #US30 #RUT #SPX500
NASDAQ:IXIC corrects 50% from the swing of 2020 bottoms.
Is it over? Economic fundamentals claim it has not bottomed out yet.
Most of the IT stocks gave the way for this correction. #TSLA #AMZN #FB #NFLX and so on to name.
Is it time for investment? Yes, for a long term holder who is not bothered with a small dips of 5-7% further fall, should start investing.
Are you salaried class person with a constant earning coming every month end? Or u have a business with a strong mindset of risk management and risk handling?
Be prepared with your investment plans! Personal Finances and Taxation. Earnings and Expenses. Savings and Return on Investment All are to be aligned in this latest world of increased necessities and demands with scarcity of resources.
As we have always read, this is actually happening in front of us.
Are we prepared?
Inflation and Unemployment will tame our greed and carelessness towards resources.
Investment opportunities? Ample of opportunities, waiting for appropriate investment entry.
Start investing start trading. Tradingview !
#tradingview.
QQQ - Dip buyers are about to catch a falling knifeYesterday, our price targets of 305 USD and 300 USD were reached. After that, the relief rally began, and QQQ erased some of its earlier losses. However, we expect the bounce in the QQQ to be short-lived. Accordingly, we remain bearish on QQQ and expect it to continue lower after the rally ceases; small time frames suggest this thesis as they slowly start to reflect overbought conditions. Therefore, our new short-term price target is 295 USD; the new medium-term price target is 290 USD (due to become a short-term price target once 295 USD is taken out).
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows QQQ on the daily chart in pre-market on 10th May 2022. The downward sloping trendline acts as resistance.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSIs bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic remain bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows that the weekly volume continues to increase, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin & Nasdaq VS DollarAs stated in my earlier post , Bitcoin is entering the buy zone.
This time, I would like to provide some additional insight on Nasdaq composite index and US Dollar currency index.
Nasdaq, while definitely not looking bullish, is already in a state of preparation for a short term bounce.
How high it might go? I would say at least around 12.5k.
On the other hand, the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) is overheated and its meteoric rise is losing momentum. It looks like it's destined for a correction (at least short term).
How deep? At least between 101 and 102.
Please keep in mind that I'm using the weekly chart, so these moves might take 1-2 weeks to materialize.
In a normal market I would be close to sure about the provided forecast, but since most markets are being affected by external factors lately, I am somewhat cautious - therefore my stance is neutral to cautiously short term bullish.
QQQ - QQQ poised to continue lowerWe maintain a bearish notion on QQQ. Accordingly, our short-term price target of 305 USD stays in place; the same applies to our medium-term price target of 300 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows increasing selling pressure.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. ADX paused a climb and dipped lower. Despite that, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX increases, which indicates that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Liquidity and NASDAQ?Here is a chart comparing the Fed's balance sheet vs. the NASDAQ price since 2003. It seems like NASDAQ chases the balance sheet most times, but gets scared out during tightening (2018-2019), and now. The FED came to save the day in 2019, but will they now? The reaction here seems to price in what the FED balance sheet would be after tightening.
Daily Market Update for 5/6Summary: The market continued to correct as the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose on Friday. Defensive sectors in the S&P 500 gained while other sectors sank.
Notes
A brief update today due to holidays and travel. I will be traveling for the next week as well but will try to keep the Daily Market Update going.
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, May 6, 2022
Facts: -1.40%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 42%, Body: 28% Red
Good: Closing range is ok
Bad: Lower high, lower low, higher volume sell-off
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thin body in middle of long upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.27, almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.57%), DJI (-0.30%), RUT (-1.69%), VIX (-3.24%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.98%) and Utilities (XLU +0.80%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.43%) and Communications (XLC -2.06%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
A brief update today due to holidays and travel. The market continued to correct as the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose on Friday. Defensive sectors in the S&P 500 gained while other sectors sank.
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Looking ahead
Fed's Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak on Monday. Bostic is on the hawkish side of the Fed and could stoke fears of higher interest rate hikes despite Jerome Powell's assurance they would limit to 50 basis points.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq fell to 12,000 before getting support on Friday. Some analysts have forecasted 12,000 as the bottom during this correction, but time and the market will tell if that's true. The 40w EMA is at 11,750.07. The index dipped below this line only in the 2000, 2008, and 2020 crashes.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would mean a +0.66% gain for Monday.
The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.67% decline.
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Wrap-up
Analysts have been waiting for broad market capitulation and maybe we've seen some over the past two days, or maybe there is more to come. Watch the two levels at 12,000 and 11,750. If those levels hold, then we could see some upside from there.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
IXIC - Rebound or falling further Comment :
1) Nasdaq Index has came to (e) Lv-2 target. Will it be rebound on Lv-2 or breakdown further more?
2) FundFlow+ indicator - Fund flow trend going downward
3) Tricol+ indicator - no banker-/weak- sentiment
Support & Resistance :
S : 12070
Remark :
- Length of ab = cd = de = ef
DISCLAIMER :
Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
QQQ - Extremely bearishQQQ dropped a staggering 5% in the previous trading session, and by doing so, it erased its post-FOMC gains. Meanwhile, our price target of 310 USD was reached. Because of that, we would like to update our thoughts on QQQ. We continue to maintain the bearish stance as we think QQQ is due to continue lower. Because of that, we would like to change our medium-term price target of 305 USD to a short-term price target. Our new medium-term price target is 300 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows QQQ on the daily chart. Volume bars below the graph indicate that the selling pressure has been increasing.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- also show bearish conditions in the market. ADX suggests that the QQQ might be setting itself to trade within a range for the rest of the week. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
As we predicted yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 futures formed a new low.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX increases, which indicates that the bearish trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The spike in VIX confirms a bearish consensus.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
QQQ - Nasdaq 100 is poised to move substantially lowerWe continue to be bearish on QQQ. Because of that, we would like to set a new short-term price target for QQQ at 310 USD. We would also like to set a medium-term price target of 305 USD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX reflects a strong downtrend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX grows which is bearish. Overall the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Daily Market Update for 5/5Summary: The Wednesday rally did not last and in a whiplash move markets sold off on Thursday, with some of the worst single-day losses since 2020.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, May 5, 2022
Facts: -4.99%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 22%, Body: 78% Red
Good: Lower volume
Bad: Big decline, lower high, lower low, advance/decline ratio
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body, short lower wick from late dip buying
Advance/Decline: 0.15, more than six declining stocks for every advancing
Indexes: SPX (-3.56%), DJI (-3.12%), RUT (-4.04%), VIX (+22.74%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU -1.02%) and Energy (XLE -1.50%) at the top. Technology (XLK -4.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.60%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
The Wednesday rally did not last and in a whiplash move markets sold off on Thursday, with some of the worst single-day losses since 2020.
The Nasdaq plummeted by -4.99%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has no upper wick, a 78% red body, and a 22% closing range. There were over 6 declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell by -4.04%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -3.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -3.12%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up by +22.74%.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Utilities (XLU -1.02%) and Energy (XLE -1.50%) were at the top of the list. Technology (XLK -4.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.60%) had the worst declines.
The weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200,000 this week, topping the forecast of 182,000. Nonfarm Productivity for Q1 dropped more than expected, receding by -7.5%. Unit Labor Costs for Q1 rose more than expected, rising by 11.6% instead of the 9.9% forecast.
After dipping yesterday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped back to recent highs, gaining +1.01% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil reached again $110 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.881. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 57.18 from 46.25 the previous week.
All of the big six mega-caps had huge losses. Tesla (TSLA) led the declines with a -8.33% drop today. Only Meta (FB) held above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, despite a -6.77% decline today.
Only one stock in the Daily Update Growth List gained. Twitter (TWTR) rose by +2.65% as more financial support came for Elon Musk's purchase of the company. More than ten stocks on the list declined by more than 10%. Fastly (FSLY) ended up at the bottom of the list with a -18.09% decline.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow is Jobs Data Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and other jobs-related metrics will be released prior to the market opening. Four Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq reached the 13,000 support/resistance area yesterday but was rejected and sent tumbling today.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +0.88% gain for tomorrow.
The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -1.45% decline for tomorrow.
If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that would mean a -3.62% decline.
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Wrap-up
What a wild ride from yesterday's late afternoon rally to today's dramatic sell-off. It's unclear what drove yesterday's rally vs today's reposition. Could it be yesterday's relief over a 50 basis point increase vs the fear 75 basis point increase that drove the rally? And then as the additional two increases announced for June and July sank in, that drove today's decline?
I don't know. Someone much smarter than me is making those decisions somewhere. Let's see if we get a rebound on Friday or if the pain continues.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Nasdaq Composite: sell the rumor, BUY the news!
The investors have been panicking about rate hike, Russian war, oil price, inflation and recession for a couple of months. Recently the traditional 'collapse after rate hike' has become 'panic before rate hike, rally after rate hike'. This is because the fed has been more communicative about the rate hike, and the market is full of investors who try to be the fastest and often overreact. The bond market has shown some investors are expecting a 75 bps rate hike instead of 50 or 25 bps.
This assumption is obviously ridiculous, so the investors became extremely relieved and excited after 4 May 2022 at the news of the 50 bps rate hike. The recession panic is also fading as investors realise the American economy remains strong and the Russian war or Chinese lockdown is not the end of world. This relief, coupled with the inflow of bargain hunters will send IXIC to the 0.618 resistance of 14680 and 0.786 resistance of 15354, in a matter of weeks. Then IXIC will probably consolidate between 14680 and 16212 for a while, and collapse again in September. Investors consider October as the worst month because they can't forget the disasters of October in 1929 and 2008. Therefore they tend to sell in September to avoid the perceived October disaster, making September an actually worse month than October.
This pattern will combine with another wave of recession panic about rate hike and quantitative tightening, making September, October and possibly the first three and half weeks of November the bearish months of 2022. The long term trend remains strongly bullish as I have stated multiple times since 2019, so every major correction is an excellent opportunity to buy at discount.
Daily Market Update for 5/4Summary: Jerome Powell gave unexpected but specific guidance on not only today's interest rate hikes, but also the next two. In addition, the specifics around reducing the balance sheet helped squash the fear that the Fed would move too fast.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, May 4, 2022
Facts: +3.19%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 63% Green
Good: Gain on higher volume, strong afternoon rally with 97% closing range
Bad: Lower low
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Outside day, thick green body over a long lower wick, tiny upper wick
Advance/Decline:
Indexes: SPX (+2.99%), DJI (+2.81%), RUT (+2.69%), VIX (-13.09%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +4.15%) and Technology (XLK +3.51%) at the top. Health (XLV +2.22%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.18%) at the bottom.
Expectation:
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Market Overview
Jerome Powell gave unexpected but specific guidance on not only today's interest rate hikes, but also the next two. In addition, the specifics around reducing the balance sheet helped squash the fear that the Fed would move too fast.
The Nasdaq responded with a late-day rally that helped it close with a +3.19% gain. The intraday swing was a huge 5% from low to high. Volume was much higher than the previous day. The candle has a lower low and a higher high, making for an outside day. The closing range of 97% is above a 63% green body. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock.
The S&P 500 followed the Nasdaq with a +2.99% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +2.81%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +2.69%. The VIX Volatility index dropped by -13.09%, although still remains elevated.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Energy (XLE +4.15%) and Technology (XLK +3.51%) were the best two sectors. Health (XLV +2.22%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.18%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April came in lower than expected at 57.1 compared to the 58.5 forecasts. However the Markit Services PMI and Composite PMI both beat expectations. The biggest news though was the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.0% and also stated the next two increases would be 50 basis points, not the 75 basis points feared by some analysts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.91%. The US 30y Treasury Yield gained while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields declined. The gap between long and short-term yields widened. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold rose, thanks to the US Dollar's weakening. Brent Oil is at $109 a barrel after Europe proposed cutting off Russian oil.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.857. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but remained in the Fear region.
All of the big six mega-caps rose today. Meta (FB) topped the group with a +5.37% gain. Apple (AAPL) and Meta closed above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) moved above its 21d EMA while Tesla (TSLA) closed above its 50d MA.
The big six led the mega-cap list with Facebook, Tesla, Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) making up the top four. AstraZeneca (AZN) was the only declining stock in the list.
The Daily Update Growth List closed almost entirely in the green. PayCom (PAYC) topped the list with a +13.78% gain. The only declining stock in the list was RH (RH) which lost -1.46%.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow we will get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens. We will also get Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q1.
Shell (SHEL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Block (SQ), Shopify (SHOP), MercadoLibre (MELI), DataDog (DDOG), Lucid (LCID), Cloudflare (NET), DoorDash (DASH), and Zillow (Z) are among the earnings reports for Thursday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq moved back toward the 13,000 support/resistance area and stopped just short of that mark. Will it prove as resistance again or can the index move past the line and top the 21d EMA?
If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, that would mean a +3.26% gain, rising above the 21d EMA and stopping short of the 50d MA.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -3.78% decline.
A drop to the trend line from the 3/29 high would mean a -5.83% decline.
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Wrap-up
The afternoon rally felt good. Investors' confidence grew thanks to very specific guidance from the Fed on current and future interest rates and the balance sheet reduction. Forecasting with such specificity is not common for the Fed and shows how careful they are being to not create a recession.
The next few days will be an important signal for equities. If the rally sticks, we should see a few days of gains on elevated volume and breath across the market with an advance/decline ratio over 1.0. Then some consolidation might begin late on Friday or early next week before the next move up.
Stay healthy and trade safe!