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Daily Market Update for 11/2Summary: A great earnings season is keeping investors bullish even ahead of an anticipated announcement from the Fed on bond purchase tapering and interest rate hike timing. The result was another day of record-setting in the major indexes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 02, 2021 Facts: +0.34%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 92%, Body: 75% Green Good: Higher high, closing range, mostly green body Bad: Advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small upper and lower wicks around a 75% green body Advance/Decline: 0.7, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.37%), DJI (+0.39%), RUT (+0.16%), VIX (-2.32%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.14%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.67%) and Energy (XLE -0.94%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A great earnings season is keeping investors bullish even ahead of an anticipated announcement from the Fed on bond purchase tapering and interest rate hike timing. The result was another day of record-setting in the major indexes. All four indexes we track closed at record highs. The Nasdaq gained +0.34% for the day. The candle is almost entirely green body as the index rallied in the morning, pulled back a bit, and then rallied again in the late afternoon. The closing range is 92%, and the green body covers 75% of the candle. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) finally closed above the March high after months of moving up and down within a fixed range. It tapped the top and bottom of the range five times before closing above it today, gaining +0.16%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.37%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.39%. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors closed the day with gains. Materials (XLB +1.14%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) performed the best today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.67%) and Energy (XLE -0.94%) were the only two sectors to decline. Consumer Discretionary gained 14% in October and was due to pull back from its record close yesterday. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at 3.6 million barrels compared to the forecast of 1.6 million barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained +0.24% for the day. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined for the day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold prices dropped as the dollar rose. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum futures continue to recede. The put/call ratio dropped to a very bullish level of 0.486. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Greed range. Microsoft (MSFT) had another record close with a +1.14% gain today. Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the four largest mega-caps to decline today. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are trading above their key moving average lines (21d EMA, 50d MA). Pfizer (PFE) topped the mega-cap list with a +4.15% gain after beating expectations and raising its outlook. Alibaba (BABA) continues volatile trading, ending the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.27% loss. Tesla (TSLA) was also near the bottom, declining -3.03% today. The EV stock is still doing very well since the Hertz purchase announcement. The majority of stocks in the Daily Update Growth List declined today, but there were some winners. MongoDB (MDB) was at the top of the list with a +4.03% gain. The stock was at the bottom of the list yesterday. The worst losers for the day were Chinese fintech companies UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). AVIS (CAR) became the latest meme stock with a retail frenzy causing a short squeeze and sending the stock soaring over 200% midday before ending the day with a +108% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday morning will kick off with the ADP Nonfarm Employment change report. Non-Manufacturing purchasing managers index data will come after the market opens. Crude Oil Inventories will also be available in the morning. The biggest news for the day will be the Fed's statement after their two-day meeting. The statement will include a decision on bond purchase tapering and the timing of future interest rate changes. The event is scheduled for 2 pm. Earnings tomorrow will include Novo Nordisk (NVO), Qualcomm (QCOM), CVS (CVS), Booking (BKNG), Humana (HUM), Marriott (MAR), Roku (ROKU), Electronic Arts (EA), Etsy (ETSY), CDW (CDW), MGM (MGM), Fox Corp (FOX), Qorvo Inc (QRVO), Hyatt (H), Fastly (FSLY), and Fisker (FSR) among many reports. Check your portfolio for earnings events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued to march higher today, having no declines for the past seven sessions. The five-day trend line points to another +0.48% gain for Wednesday. The trend line from the 10/4 low and the one-day trend line point to a lateral move of +0.06% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought today might be the start of a pullback as investors anticipate the Fed's decision. There is still likely to be some reaction to the Fed's statement tomorrow. Can the earnings optimism keep the bulls around, or will tomorrow be the first day in seven sessions with a decline? The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/1Summary: Small-caps soared today as the Russell 2000 nearly set a record close. Tesla helped carry the Nasdaq higher while the four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 1, 2021 Facts: +0.63%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 43% Green Good: Closing range of 98%, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Lowering volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under small green body at top of candle Advance/Decline: 2.23, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (+0.26%), RUT (+2.65%), VIX (+0.92%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.83%) and Energy (XLE +1.72%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.12%) and Technology (XLK -0.15%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small-caps soared today as the Russell 2000 nearly set a record close. Tesla helped carry the Nasdaq higher while the four largest mega-caps declined for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.63% gain. Volume was slightly lower than the previous day but remained higher than average. The candle has a long lower wick formed in the morning just after the market opened. However, the index climbed from there, dipped in the afternoon, but continued to rise into the market close. The closing range of 98%, higher high, and higher low are all bullish and there were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +2.65% for the day, closing just below its record close in March. Since then, the small-cap index has been range-bound, so this week will be a big test to see if small-caps can break out. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.18%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.26%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +0.92%. Tesla helped carry Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.83%) to the top of the sector list. Energy (XLE +1.72%) was the second-best sector for the day, overtaken by Consumer Discretionary in the final few minutes of trading. Only two sectors declined for the day, Health (XLV -0.12%) and Technology (XLK -0.15%). Manufacturing data for October released in the morning showed higher employment and better-than-expected activity among purchasing managers. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index came in at 60.8 against the forecast of 60.5. Overall the data shows supply-chain is still a concern but not quite as bad as analysts thought. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -0.27% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate prices also fell. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.541. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Extreme Greed. The four largest mega-caps all declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the most significant decline, falling -3.07% for the day. After bouncing on Friday's dip, Amazon (AMZN) closed lower today, dropping -1.61%. Apple (AAPL) dipped to its 21d EMA and 50d MA before getting support and closing only -0.56% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) has the healthiest-looking chart, declining only -0.68% today after several days of gains. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap for the day, seemingly carrying the whole market higher. The company gained +8.49%, continuing to rise on the large Hertz purchase and the positive outlook for the EV industry. Alphabet was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day, followed by Eli Lilly (LLY), which declined -2.14%. Chinese Fintech companies topped the Daily Update Growth List. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holding (FUTU) continue to trade with high volatility, advancing +12.52% and +8.97% today. It wasn't a great day for all growth stocks. MongoDB (MDB) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) were at the bottom of the growth list with declines of -4.4%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday is a quiet day for economic news as investors await the outcome of a two-day Fed meeting this week. News from the meeting will come on Wednesday. Pfizer (PFE), T-Mobile (TMUS), Amgen (AMGN), Estee Lauder (EL), Prudential Financial (PRU), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Paycom (PAYC), Zillow (Z), SolarEdge (SEDG), LYFT (LYFT), and Fidelity (FNF) are a few of the earnings reports for Tuesday that will give clues on how companies and specific segments are progressing. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time high and record close today. After three days of gains, the trend lines are pointing at a lateral move for Tuesday. All three trend lines (from the 10/4 low, the one-day, and the five-day) point to a +0.07% gain for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up November 1, 2020, marked the start of an amazing run for small-caps and the Russell 2000. The index gained 50% between November 1, 2020, and its latest all-time high on March 15, 2021. Based on today's advance, it looks like the small-cap index wants to go on another run. There are reasons that the index could run again. Small-caps have historically responded better to Fed monetary policy changes. They may initially dip just like any other segments, but the following one to two years tend to be great years for the Russell 2000. Investors are awaiting the Fed's official decision over bond purchase tapering. Over the next two days, there will likely be some hedging and profit-taking among stocks that have benefited from the loose monetary policy. That includes large multinationals and tech growth stocks, which could hold back the Nasdaq. Once initial reaction to news clears, it's reasonable to believe the Nasdaq can continue its bullish rally. For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 10/29Summary: Disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon caused markets to dip in the morning, but it did not squash investor optimism. Three of the major indexes rebounded from the dip to end the day with record closes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 29, 2021 Facts: +0.33%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 97% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, close above 15,400 support Bad: Dip below support, lower volume on gain, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Marubozu green, Thick green body, tiny wicks Advance/Decline: 0.73, more declining stocks than advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.25%), RUT (-0.03%), VIX (-1.63%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.97%) and Technology (XLK +0.43%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.66%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.20%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon caused markets to dip in the morning, but it did not squash investor optimism. Three of the major indexes rebounded from the dip to end the day with record closes. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.33% gain. The dip below 15,400 support didn't last long as the index rallied in the later morning and moved back above the support area. The green candle has a 97% body and no lower wick. The upper wick is small enough to count as a Marubozu candle (no upper and lower wick), representing bullish sentiment. However, volume was lower than the previous day, and there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.19% and +0.25% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.03% for the day. It traded opposite the other indexes, rising in the morning but then fading throughout the day. The VIX Volatility Index fell -1.51%. Only five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Health (XLV +0.97%) and Technology (XLK +0.43%) were the top gaining sectors. Energy (XLE -0.66%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.20%) were the biggest losing sectors. Year-over-year PCE Price Index data for September came in lower than expected, while the quarterly Employment Costs Index was higher than forecast. Personal Spending for September was up 0.6% compared to the forecast of 0.5%. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment for October were both higher than expected. The US Dollar strengthened, the dollar index (DXY) rising +0.83% US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield rose. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices slipped. Silver and Gold prices dropped as the US dollar strengthened. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum also declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.698. The CNN Fear & Greed index is nearing the Extreme Greed area. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed above 100 for the first time since April. It rose to 103.35 this week after coming in at 98.02 last week. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) opened with a gap down of around -4% but recovered to close the day with -2% losses. Microsoft (MSFT ) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained for the day. All four largest mega-caps are trading at or above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. AbbView (ABBV) rose to the top of the mega-cap list with a +4.56% gain after announcing earnings that beat expectations and raising guidance for the year. In second place among mega-caps, Tesla (TSLA) climbed +3.43% today as Electric Vehicle stocks continue to perform well. Alibaba (BABA) beat Amazon to land at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -2.86% decline today. CloudFlare (NET) was at the top of the Daily Update Growth List with a +5.80% climb. The stock rose more than 70% in the month of October. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) were at the bottom of the growth list again, losing -8.47% and -11.85%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick off with Manufacturing data, including the Purchasing Manager Index and Employment. Loews (L) and Avis (CAR) were among a few earnings reports on Monday. Earnings reports will be more frequent later in the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set another all-time high and record close today. The index briefly dipped below 15,400 support but moved back above the support area in the late morning. If the one-day trend line continues, it would mean a +0.64% gain for Monday. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 10/4 low point to about the same +0.22% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq advanced +2.70% this week, the third week of gains in a row. All four major indexes rose for the week. Consumer Discretionary was by far the best sector for the week, with the SPDR ETF (XLY) gaining +4.36%. Technology and Health also outperformed the broader S&P 500. Financials and Energy were at the bottom of the weekly sector list, declining about -1% each this week. While Consumer Spending is outpacing expectations, the demand for materials seems to be softening. Copper and Aluminum are both sharply declining after hitting record highs a few weeks ago. Shipping costs are also on the decline while backups at US ports are slowly clearing. Analysts also see an improvement in chip makers' ability to meet demands. Although it still may be a tough holiday shopping season in terms of supply, inflation is looking more like it may be transitory to some degree. Employee Costs will not likely decline, so some inflation is bound to stick around. However, the house does not seem to be on fire anymore. Or at least the fire is getting smaller. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 10/28Summary: Optimism from positive earnings reports sent the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to a new record close today. However, evening earnings reports from Apple and Amazon may squash some of that optimism. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 28, 2021 Facts: +1.39%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 89% Green Good: Very bullish green body, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume, although still above average Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny upper and lower wicks. Body above previous two days candle body. Advance/Decline: 1.79, more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.98%), DJI (+0.68%), RUT (+2.02%), VIX (-2.65%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.47%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.33%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.33%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Optimism from positive earnings reports sent the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to a new record close today. However, evening earnings reports from Apple and Amazon may squash some of that optimism. The Nasdaq ended a bullish day with a +1.39% gain and a new all-time high. The green body covers 89% of the candle with a tiny upper wick resulting in a 97% closing range for the day. There is a slightly longer lower wick. There were more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) also set a new record close with a +0.98% advance. Small-caps outperformed as the Russell 2000 (RUT) recovered yesterday's losses and rose +2.02% today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.68%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -2.65%. All S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Real Estate (XLRE +1.47%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.33%) were the best performing sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.33%) were at the bottom of the list. The Bank of Japan lowered growth estimates and signaled a delay in stimulus withdrawal. US GDP for Q3 came in lower than expected at a 2% quarter-over-quarter growth rate vs. an expected 2.7%. Initial Jobless Claims continued to come down, beating expectations with 281,000 claims vs. a forecast of 290,000. Pending Home Sales for September showed a -2.3% decline vs. an expected 0.5% increase. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply, declining -0.53% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bonds declined slightly. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum bounced higher after days of declines. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to -0.531. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to Extreme Greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed above 100 for the first time since April. It rose to 103.35 this week after coming in at 98.02 last week. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) rose for the day, gaining +2.50% and +1.59%. However, both had disappointing news in their earnings and sold off after hours. Microsoft (MSFT) added to its post-earnings gain with another +0.37% advance today. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.25%. Merck & Company (MRK) was at the top of the mega-cap list with a +6.14% gain today. The company topped estimates in their earnings and revenue and upped guidance for the year. Most mega-caps gained for the day. Visa (V) was the biggest loser, declining -2.75% and adding to yesterday's heavy loss. Chewy (CHWY) was the top gainer in the Daily Update Growth List, advancing +7.94%. At the bottom of the list were Chinese Fintech stocks FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR), dropping -12.76% and -17.06%. China declared unlicensed online brokerages illegal in the country, and investors feared Beijing would target the two most popular brokerages. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday morning brings an update to PCE Price Index data, a key measure of inflation. We will also see Personal Spending numbers for September and Consumer Expectations, and Consumer Sentiment for October. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) reported earnings on Friday. In addition to the big oil companies, AbbVie (ABBV), Daimler (DDAIF), and Royal Caribbean (RCL) are among other companies to close the week with earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 15,400 resistance area (which now becomes support). After setting a new high, it retested the 15,400 area before moving even higher for a record close. All three trend lines (from 10/4 low, one-day, five-day) point to about the same area, which would result in a +0.37% gain for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So far, the earnings season has turned investors bullish, ignoring inflation and GDP slowdown concerns which could turn to stagflation. That sentiment may change with Apple and Amazon missing expectations in today's after-hours. Ignoring the earnings reports from Apple and Amazon, the chart says we can expect Sideways or Higher. However, if investors react severely to the earnings disappointment, that will undoubtedly drag indexes lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 10/27Summary: Gains by Microsoft and Alphabet weren't enough to lift indexes as it seems everything else sold off today. Volatility in long-term treasuries and gold erased morning gains in equity markets. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 27, 2021 Facts: +0.00%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 0%, Body: 31% Red Good: Support at 15,200 Bad: Intraday gains lost after resistance at 15,400, low advance/decline line Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Shooting star with long upper wick, no lower wick, red body Advance/Decline: 0.26, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.51%), DJI (-0.74%), RUT (-1.90%), VIX (+6.26%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.22%) and Technology (XLK -0.09%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.65%) and Energy (XLE -2.87%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Gains by Microsoft and Alphabet weren't enough to lift indexes as it seems everything else sold off today. Volatility in long-term treasuries and gold erased morning gains in equity markets. The Nasdaq ended even with yesterday's closing price, and volume was lower than the previous day. The index sold off into the close resulting in a 0% closing range. The 31% red body sits at the bottom of the candle below a long upper wick. In a similar session to the previous day, resistance held at 15,400 while support held at 15,200. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.51% and -0.74%. Small caps had the worst performance, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping -1.90%. The VIX Volatility Index gained +6.26%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.22%) was the only sector to gain for the day. Technology (XLK -0.09%) was the second-best sector. Communications (XLC -0.27%) was in third, and the three growth sectors were the only ones to outperform the broader S&P 500 index. Financials (XLF -1.65%) and Energy (XLE -2.87%) were the bottom two sectors for today. Durable Goods Orders for September were higher than expected, coming in at a month-over-month drop of -0.4% compared to the expected -1.1%. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than forecast, signaling a slowdown in demand. Crude Oil Futures and Energy stocks both dropped after the updated data. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.11% for the day. US 30y and US 10y Treasury yields dropped sharply while the 2y yield rose. The volatility in Treasuries, which comes from worries about monetary policy and government funding, erased gains in equity markets. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Gold rose for the day. Crude Oil Futures dropped. Copper and Aluminum prices are falling from their extreme highs set just a few weeks ago. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.663. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the middle of the Greed area after coming close to Extreme Greed earlier this week. It was the largest mega-caps that carried indexes higher in the morning. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +4.21%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +4.9%. Both released quarterly results yesterday and beat expectations on revenue and earnings. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) declined for the day, losing -0.21%. All four are back above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet and Microsoft were the top two mega-caps, followed by Coca-Cola (KO) and Tesla (TSLA). Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) were at the bottom of the list, both declining more than -6%. Visa beat expectations in an early morning earnings release but provided guidance that worried investors. On top of that, news broke that the Justice Department is probing relationships between Visa and Fintech firms such as Square, Stripe, and PayPal. Mastercard often trades in the same direction as Visa. Solar Energy company Enphase (ENPH) smashed earnings expectations, sending the stock up +24.65% to top the Daily Update Growth List. That also helped Solar Edge (SEDG) climb +9.13%. Twitter (TWTR) tumbled -10.78% on slower than expected user growth. RobinHood (HOOD) also disappointed on weak earnings from its cryptocurrency business, declining -10.44%. The two stocks were at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Bank of Japan will hold a press conference overnight. The public statements since a new administration took over in Japan could bring monetary policy changes and impact the US Dollar and US Treasuries. Inflation data in Europe will also become available before the market opens. US economic data will include the first look at Q3 GDP. We'll also have an update for weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales for September. It will be another big day for earnings on Thursday. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are the headlines. Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Merck (MRK), Shopify (SHOP), Starbucks (SBUX), Dexcom (DXCM), and Yum Brands (YUM) are some of the others. Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings events. There are a lot this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq hit resistance at 15,400 and moved back to the 15,200 support area for the second day in a row. The trend line from the 10/4 low points to a +1.27% gain for Thursday. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to nearly the same place, resulting in about a +0.72% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investor fears are driving volatility in Treasury bonds which will always cause some panic in equities. The fears are over a few things. Monetary policy changes seem inevitable for Japan after the new administration declared it would move away from Abenomics that drove policy for the past decade. Investors fear the worst over inflation data for Europe that will be available overnight. Finally, the US government has its upcoming transition to bond purchase tapering while attention also turns to the new December deadline for government funding. The expectation tomorrow is for Sideways. The chart doesn't indicate much of a direction. Any move up or down will likely come from the economic news in Europe and Asia. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 10/26Summary: Markets opened with a rally on higher than expected Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data. The rally faded late in the morning, weighed down by Facebook and worries over inflation. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 26, 2021 Facts: +0.06%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 20%, Body: 44% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, support at 15,200 Bad: Couldn't hold morning rally, rejected at 15,400 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body. Advance/Decline: 0.54, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (-0.72%), VIX (+4.86%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.58%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -0.62%) and Communications (XLC -0.89%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets opened with a rally on higher than expected Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data. The rally faded late in the morning, weighed down by Facebook and worries over inflation. The Nasdaq held onto a +0.06% gain for the day, after rising 1% in the morning and getting rejected at 15,400. Volume was higher than the previous day, and the higher high and higher low is bullish. On the other hand, the long upper wick and low closing range of 20% represent almost two stocks declining for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost morning rallies but set new all-time highs and had record closes. They gained +0.18% and +0.04%, respectively. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.72% after hitting its highest intraday since the beginning of July. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +4.72%. The sector list scrambled quite a bit during the day, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK), and Utilities (XLU) all leading at one point. Energy (XLE +0.58%) ended the day at the top of the list with Utilities (XLU +0.54%) in second. Industrials (XLI -0.62%) and Communications (XLC -0.89%) were at the bottom. Communications was weighed down by Facebook (FB). CB Consumer Confidence came in at 113.8, higher than 109.8 for the previous month and higher than the 108.3 forecast. New Home Sales for September also came in higher than expected, registering 800k against the forecast of 760k. Inflation fears reemerged as investors responded to comments about hyperinflation from Jack Dorsey of Twitter. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.15% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield gained. The 2y yield seems to be tracking the level of worry about inflation. Worries go up, and the 2y yield goes up. Worries go down, and the 2y yield goes down. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices rose for the day. Silver and Gold dropped back from the previous day's sharp increase. Copper and Aluminum Futures continue to fall. Crude Oil prices continued to rise, but Inventories data that came after market close shows a slowing in demand. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.591. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in Fear but hovering close to the Extreme Fear area. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Amazon (AMZN) rose back above its 21d EMA and 50d MA, following the Consumer Discretionary sector higher. Microsoft (MSFT) beat earnings expectations, turning in a record quarter. The stock rose 2% after hours. Alphabet's (GOOGL) earnings exceeded expectations, but the company warned that supply shortages might negatively impact the ad business in the fourth quarter. The stock declined -1% after hours. Nvidia (NVDA) was the top mega-cap gainer of the day. After remarks by Facebook on future capital expenditures, investors see high demand for Nvidia's GPU hardware to support artificial intelligence in the cloud and the metaverse for users. However, Facebook (FB) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list as more internal documents became available about the companies practices and knowledge of its impact on younger audiences. DraftKings (DKNG) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) joined Nvidia at the top of the Daily Update Growth List. The list, a sampling of popular growth stocks, had many more losers than gainers today. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Ehang Holdings (EH) were the worst-performing stocks on the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Data to be available in the morning includes Durable Goods Orders, Goods Trade Balance, and Retail Inventories. Later in the morning, Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), McDonald's (MCD), Sony (SONY), ServiceNow (NOW), Boeing (BA), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), ADP (ADP), General Motors (GM), Fiserv (FISV), Ford (F), Twilio (TWLO), eBay (EBAY), Southern Copper (SCCO), Spotify (SPOT), Teladoc (TDOC), and Dynatrace (DT) are some of the earnings reports for tomorrow. Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports. There are too many to list here. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq gained in the morning but hit resistance at 15,400. After topping out, it declined until getting support around 15,200. The trend line from the 10/4 low points to a +0.94% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line results in a +0.34% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect a -1.02% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The morning started so great, but the optimism was overwhelmed by inflation fears. The Nasdaq couldn't quite hit a new all-time high. However, support at 15,200 is positive, and we could see a nice bounce tomorrow that takes the index higher. The expectation is for Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 10/25Summary: Tesla led major indexes and the Consumer Discretionary sector higher today as it became the newest trillion-dollar company after announcing a 100k car order from Hertz. That sent EV stocks higher and kicked off a big earnings week with fresh optimism. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 25, 2021 Facts: +0.90%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 44% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, advance/decline ratio Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Green body above previous days red body, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.19, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.18%), RUT (+0.93%), VIX (-1.23%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.48%) and Energy (XLE +1.47%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.12%) and Utilities (XLU -0.43%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Tesla led major indexes and the Consumer Discretionary sector higher today as it became the newest trillion-dollar company after announcing a 100k car order from Hertz. That sent EV stocks higher and kicked off a big earnings week with fresh optimism. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.90% climb. The index rose throughout the morning to settle just above last week's high. The green body covers 44% of the candle and is almost entirely above Friday's red body. The long lower wick formed after the market opened, but the index quickly turned to the upside to close with an 83% closing range. There were more advancing than declining stocks. Small-caps outperformed for the day, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +0.93%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.47%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.18%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -1.23%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.48%) led the sector list, boosted by Tesla. Energy (XLE +1.47%) was the second-best sector as energy prices continued to soar on high demand. Financials (XLF -0.12%) and Utilities (XLU -0.43%) were the bottom two sectors for today. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.23%. The US 30y Treasury Yield rose while the 10y and 2y yields declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold prices climbed despite the stronger dollar. Crude Oil Futures continued to march higher. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.531. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving closer to Extreme Fear. The four largest mega-caps underperformed the market. They all declined today as their earnings reports approach this week. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, while Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are above the critical moving averages. Tesla (TSLA) passed Facebook as the fifth largest mega-cap and became the latest trillion-dollar company. The company topped the mega-cap list with a +12.66%, thanks to the 100k card order from Hertz. PayPal was in a distant second, with a +2.70% gain after the company called off any intentions to acquire Pinterest. Danaher (DHR) was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day, declining -2.32%. After Tesla, NIO (NIO) was the second-best stock in the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +6.15%. Most Electric Vehicle stocks gained today, thanks to the Tesla news showing the broad movement to electric is closer than previously expected. Pinterest (PINS) declined -12.71%, ending up at the bottom of the list. They reversed last week's gains that came on the PayPal acquisition news. Facebook (FB) shares rose 2% after hours, thanks to an earnings beat. Investors shrugged off the whistleblower report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence numbers for October and New Home Sales for September will be available tomorrow morning. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will get an update after the market closes. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Eli Lilly (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS), AMD (AMD), Raytheon (RTX), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), Lockheed Marin (LMT), Chubb (CB), Sherwin-William (SHW), Twitter (TWTR), RobinHood (HOOD), Enphase (ENPH), Logitech (LOGI), F5 Networks (FFIV), Quantumscape (QS), Juniper (JNPR), and InMode (INMD) are just a small list of the many companies across sectors reporting earnings tomorrow. Many of those reports will be seen as a barometer for their respective segments. Check your portfolio for earnings reports this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had a constructive gain today with more advancing stocks than declining stocks. There may be some resistance at 12,250, but overall the uptrend is intact. The one-day trend line results in a +1.04% gain for Tuesday. The trend line from the 10/4 low ends with a +0.60% advance. The five-day trend line is flatter and points to a -0.22% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The news on Tesla in the morning and the Facebook earnings after hours is a tremendous bullish start to the week. With most of the significant earnings reports coming in the after-hours tomorrow, we should see good momentum at the market open. However, watch out for the UPS earnings report and the Consumer Confidence numbers as two data points that could raise concern. The expectation for tomorrow is Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 10/22Summary: Despite consistent messages from Fed officials over the last few weeks, it took Jerome Powell's confirmation on bond tapering to finally impact investors. It didn't help that dismal earnings reports from Snap and IBM dampened optimism over the earnings season. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 22, 2021 Facts: -0.82%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 40%, Body: 39% Red Good: Stayed above 15,000 support area Bad: Lower high, lower close on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Red body above a longer lower wick, closing range 40% Advance/Decline: 0.5, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (+0.21%), RUT (-0.21%), VIX (+2.80%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.40%) and Energy (XLE +0.94%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.36%) and Communications (XLC -2.12%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Despite consistent messages from Fed officials over the last few weeks, it took Jerome Powell's confirmation on bond tapering to finally impact investors. It didn't help that dismal earnings reports from Snap and IBM dampened optimism over the earnings season. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.82% decline but stayed above the 15,000 support area. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 40% closing range is right at the minimum we like to see for support, and the 39% red body sits above a longer lower wick. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) had a record close, gaining +0.21% today thanks to large companies in cyclical sectors. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.11%, and the Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.21%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +2.80% but remains low relative to the past few months. Cyclical sectors rose to the top of the sector list, followed by defensive sectors. Financials (XLF +1.40%) and Energy (XLE +0.94%) were the best performing sectors of the day. Growth sectors were at the bottom, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.36%) and Communications (XLC -2.12%) performing the worst. SNAP revealed to investors that Apple's privacy changes significantly impact ad revenue. That would also affect the other Communications stocks, sending them all down by 3% to 5%. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 59.2, lower than the 60.4 forecast. However, Services PMI beat the estimates, registering a 58.2 against an expected 55.1. Jerome Powell spoke in the morning and stated that economic indicators confirmed bond purchase tapering could begin. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.16% for the day. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields declined for the day, with long-term yields dropping more sharply than short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell sharply while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.682. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Greed range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 98.02 from 64.46 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps declined, with Amazon (AMZN) dropping -2.90% and Alphabet (GOOGL) falling -3.05%. Both moved below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) declined, but their charts are still in an uptrend, closing above the key moving average lines. Oracle (ORCL) was the top-performing mega-cap for the day with a +2.02% gain. Intel was at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The company dropped -11.68% after disappointing investors with missed earnings and revenue. Also at the bottom of the list were Facebook, Google, and Amazon. Etsy (ETSY) topped the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +2.24%. Tesla (TSLA) was the second-best stock in the list, rising +1.75%. SNAP (SNAP) was at the bottom of the list with a -26.59% decline. Beyond Meat (BYND) also had a horrible session, declining -11.80% after the company lowered guidance for the quarter. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no significant economic events scheduled for Monday. All eyes will be on Facebook (FB) earnings on Monday. T-Mobile (TMUS) and HSBC (HSBC) will also report on the first day of the week. Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon all report earnings later in the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq pulled back from its recent rally but remained above the 15,000 support area. The five-day trend line points to a +1.19% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 10/4 low ends with a +0.81% for the first day of the week. Following the one-day trend line would result in a -0.67% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought the consistent messages on bond tapering from Fed officials over the past few weeks would mean investors already priced in the news. However, markets sold off on Jerome Powell's confirmation that the tapering process could begin. Investors did find a footing and bought back some of the initial sell-off. Beyond the panic, investors should see that bond tapering does not necessarily mean a repeat of past taper tantrums. All four major indexes closed higher for the week. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had record weekly closes, gaining +1.64% and +1.08%, respectively. The Nasdaq rose +1.29% for the week. Small-caps also had a great week, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) climbing +1.13%. Real Estate (XLRE) was the top-performing sector this week, followed by Health (XLV) and Financials (XLF). Communications (XLC) led earlier in the week but ended the week in last place after the severe drop on Friday. Next week is a busy earnings week with the five largest mega-caps all reporting. Those reports will likely set the mood for the market until the December government deadlines approach. For Monday, the expectation is for Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 10/21Summary: Investors continued the bullish rally on positive earnings reports, sending the S&P 500 to a new record close. However, it wasn't all positive, with some companies taking a beating after disappointing results. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 21, 2021 Facts: +0.62%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 95%, Body: 87% Green Good: Another HH/HL day, thick green body, higher volume Bad: Advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick green body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.72, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.30%), DJI (-0.02%), RUT (+0.28%), VIX (-3.10%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.47%) and Health (XLV +0.41%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.42%) and Energy (XLE -1.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors continued the bullish rally on positive earnings reports, sending the S&P 500 to a new record close. However, it wasn't all positive, with some companies taking a beating after disappointing results. The Nasdaq gained +0.62% on a much higher volume than the previous day. The 87% green body covers the candle, leaving behind tiny upper and lower wicks. The closing range was 95%. Despite the bullish candle, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks in the index. The S&P 500 (SPX) hit a new record close, gaining +0.30% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.28%, while a disappointing earnings report from IBM held down the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). The industrial index declined -0.02% for the day. The VIX Volatility Index fell -3.10%, ending the day with its lowest close since the start of the pandemic. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.47%) and Health (XLV +0.41%) were at the top of the sector list. The cyclical sectors underperformed, with Financials (XLF -0.42%) and Energy (XLE -1.85%) losing the most for the day. Initial Jobless Claims were at 290,000 compared to a forecast of 300,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed expectations, signaling some slowdown in demand. The index measured 23.8 against a forecast of 25.0. Existing Home Sales for September were 6.29 million compared to the forecast of 6.09 million. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.17%. US Treasury Yields rose while the gap between long-term and short-term yields tightened. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined, impacted by rising yields (yields go up, prices go down). Copper and Aluminum Futures fell sharply, dropping -3.52% and -5.57%. The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained about the same, ending the day at 0.548. The CNN Fear & Greed index is inching toward the Extreme Greed range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 98.02 from 64.46 the previous week. Microsoft (MSFT) led the four largest mega-caps higher, gaining +1.09% for the day. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all had gained, and their respective charts look healthy. Netflix (NFLX) rose +4.48%, topping the mega-cap list after the market reacted negatively to a stellar earnings report two days earlier. PayPal (PYPL) declined sharply for a second day, dropping -5.86% today and ending at the bottom of the mega-cap list. IBM (IBM) fell -9.56% after missing expectations on earnings, weighing down the Dow for the day. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) topped the Daily Update Growth List as the two Chinese brokerages bounced back from a sharp sell-off last week. Fiverr (FVRR) and PayPal (PYPL) are at the bottom of the list, declining -3.91% and -5.86%. Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) rose +356.83% after revealing they would facilitate a reverse merger with Donald Trump's new media company, Trump Media & Technology Group. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services PMI data becomes available Friday morning as the market opens. Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later in the morning. Honeywell (HON), American Express (AXP), and Royal Caribbean (RCL) release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued its uptrend today with another higher high and higher low. The five-day trend line points to a +0.62% gain for Friday. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a +0.17% advance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The bullish sentiment continues as the S&P 500 (SPX) sets yet another record close for the year. While bond tapering is sure to begin in the next month, investors seem to be ready for the transition. The next deadline for the government budget and dead ceiling is in December, which allows for some more time before a potential event that will change sentiment. The expectation continues to be Sideways or Higher until the market tells us something different. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/20Summary: Positive earnings reports continue to move markets higher while big tech stocks took a breather for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 20, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 47%, Body: 36% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, pause within a uptrend Bad: Lower close, otherwise nothing alarming Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thin body in upper half of red candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.99, about equal advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.37%), DJI (+0.43%), RUT (+0.61%), VIX (-1.34%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.58%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.53%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.07%) and Technology (XLK -0.28%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive earnings reports continue to move markets higher while big tech stocks took a breather for the day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined -0.05%, a lateral move after several days of gains. Volume was lower than the previous day as the uptrend in the index remained intact with a higher high and a higher low. The 36% red body is in the upper half of the candle above a longer lower wick and a 47% closing range. There was about an equal number of advancing stocks and declining stocks. Small-caps led the day with a +0.61% gain for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.37%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.43%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -1.34% today. Utilities (XLU +1.58%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.53%) were at the top of the sector list. The defensive sectors still have some catchup to do after lagging in the recent rally. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.07%) and Technology (XLK -0.28%) were the only losing sectors. The action among big tech companies seemed profit-taking rather than concern from investors. Crude Oil Inventories surprised with higher demand than expected. Inventories showed a -0.431 million barrel shortage vs. an expected 1.857 million barrel surplus. This afternoon, the Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles said that economic tests were met, and tapering could begin next month. He also said that inflation should recede into next year, and pulling forward interest rate hikes was unnecessary. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by -0.20%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose, likely on Quarles confirmation that bond purchase tapering would begin soon. The 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices moved higher while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices dropped. Silver and Gold rose on the weaker dollar. Aluminum Futures are falling back from recent record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose slightly to 0.550. The CNN Fear & Greed Index continues to move further into the Greed range. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) gained for the day. However, the charts for all four still look good after some profit-taking today. Abbott Labs (ABT) and UnitedHealth (UNH) were the top mega-caps of the day, leading the Health Sector (XLV) higher. Abbott Labs released earnings, beating expectations on the top and bottom line and improving guidance for 2021. PayPal (PYPL) declined -4.91% after rumors stated the company is in talks to acquire Pinterest (PINS). Pinterest (PINS) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a 12.77% gain on the PayPal acquisition rumors. Penn National Gaming (PENN) joined PayPal at the bottom of the growth list. More than half of the growth list declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be available in the morning before the market opens. After the market opens, Existing Home Sales data will be released. PayPal (PYPL), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), SAP (SAP), Snap (SNAP), Southwest Airlines (LUV), KeyCorp (KEY), American Airlines (AAL), Snap-on (SNA), Crocs (CROX), AutoNation (AN), Alaska Air (ALK), and Mattel (MAT) are some of the interesting earnings reports in a long list scheduled for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq paused after several days of gains, staying well above the 15,000 support area. The five-day trend line points to a +1.06% gain for tomorrow. The line from the 10/4 low points to a +0.24% gain for Thursday. The one-day trend line would result in a -0.42% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq paused after several days of gains while the rest of the market took a step higher to catch up. Small-caps and defensive stocks, in particular, were lagging. There is some room for the index to retest the 15,000 area. However, the uptrend is intact, and so I'm expecting either a Sideways or Higher move without some catalyst to cause a pullback. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/19Summary: Investors remained bullish on Tuesday as earnings reports start to pick up, and analysts expect positive results. Indexes ticked higher while several sectors traded at record levels. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 19, 2021 Facts: +0.71%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 92% (w/gap), Body: 64% Green Good: Gap up to steady gains in morning, high closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, mostly green body, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.19, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.56%), RUT (+0.36%), VIX (-3.74%) Sector List: Health (XLV +1.31%) and Utilities (XLU +1.26%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.04%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.28%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors remained bullish on Tuesday as earnings reports start to pick up, and analysts expect positive results. Indexes ticked higher while several sectors traded at record levels. The Nasdaq advanced another +0.71% today, the fifth consecutive day of gains. The index opened with a gap up and made steady gains through the morning. A dip in the afternoon created a small upper wick, but the index closed with a 92% closing range with the gap. The higher volume with more advancing stocks than declining stocks makes for a constructive day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.74%, with gains spread across most sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.56%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose +0.36%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) closed at its lowest point since August, declining -3.74% today. Health (XLV +1.31%) and Utilities (XLU +1.26%) were at the top of the sector list. The two defensive sectors outperformed, which could be a signal of some caution. However, it could just be some rotation into cheaper equities that need to catch up with the rest of the market. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.28%) was the only sector to decline for the day, but that came after an all-time high set at the open. Building Permits and Housing Starts data released in the morning was below the forecast, but the market did not seem concerned with the miss. Fed officials speaking in the afternoon indicated inflation could last longer than previously thought and that the labor market may not return to pre-pandemic levels. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.17% today. 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bonds rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bonds declined. Crude Oil Futures advanced higher, continuing to set new records. Copper and Aluminum futures fell today but remain near highs. The put/call ratio declined to 0.538. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved well into the Greed area. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap, advancing +6.10% after announcing new cloud server chips today. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) missed expectations on revenue in its morning earnings release but improved the outlook for the year, sending the stock up 2.34%. Procter & Gamble (PG) beat earnings estimates but said rising costs were impacting the business, sending it to the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -1.18% decline. There were only a handful of mega-caps that declined for today. Fastly (FSLY) gained +10.72%, topping the Daily Update Growth List. The gain came after the US granted a patent to the company for load balancing across origin services. CloudFlare (NET) broke a 12-day winning streak with a decline today, ending with a -4.36%, the worst performance in the growth list. The decline may be related to Fastly's gain as both are CDN providers, and the patent could impact Cloudflare. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories will be available in the morning. Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), IBM (IBM) are a few of the mega-caps reporting earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose further above the 15,000 support area and cleared a previous pivot high at 15,085. The next critical level is 15,200. The five-day trend line points to a +1.19% gain for Wednesday. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.40% gain. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, that will result in a -0.39% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Fed's comments on drawn-out inflation could have had much more of a negative impact today. They also mentioned that the labor market might not return to pre-pandemic levels. So why didn't the market react more negatively? Despite these headwinds and low consumer sentiment, retail sales still soared last month. Analysts likely see more resilience in the economy than previously thought. Corporations have had to innovate against the pandemic for the past year. In the face of labor shortages, that innovation needs to continue. Productivity in the labor force is rising, a clear sign of that innovation. Ultimately, innovation will be deflationary. So perhaps we are even seeing the market look past inflation, look past stagflation, and start to see the opportunity for tech and growth stocks. The expectation for tomorrow is for Sideways or Higher. The index may need to pause after several days of gains, but we shouldn't see a move lower unless something changes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/18Summary: Weak GDP data from China wasn't enough to break optimism for investors after last week's surprise Retail Sales data. Indexes started lower but recovered with steady gains throughout the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 18, 2021 Facts: +0.84%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 94% Green Good: Bullish engulfing candle in an uptrend, close above 15,000 support Bad: Lower volume, low advance/decline line Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bullish engulfing candle, very small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (-0.10%), RUT (+0.10%), VIX (+0.18%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.22%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Weak GDP data from China wasn't enough to break optimism for investors after last week's surprise Retail Sales data. Indexes started lower but recovered with steady gains throughout the day. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.84% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is all green body, completely engulfing the previous day's candle and presenting very small upper and lower wicks as the index made steady gains throughout the day. Still, there were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.34%, carried higher by big tech stocks in the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained only +0.10%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended the day with a -0.10% decline. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.22%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) were the top sectors for the day. Defensive sectors, including Health (XLV -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%), were at the bottom of the sector list. GDP growth in China was lower than expected, causing the indexes to open with losses. Industrial Production growth for the US was also lower than expected, but investors were more focused on Friday's surprise Retail Sales data. The US Dollar remained flat for the day, losing only -0.01% in the index (DXY). The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields advanced. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Crude Oil, Copper, and Aluminum futures remained at record highs while the Timber declined for the day. The put/call ratio declined to 0.558. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the Greed side but remained near Neutral. Apple (AAPL) led the four largest mega-caps with gains for the day. The company announced new notebook products, advancing +1.18% for the day, stopping just short of the 50d MA line. The other three are trading above their key moving average lines. Facebook (FB) was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Tesla (TSLA). Facebook rose after revealing plans to build out the Metaverse, hiring over 10,000 works in Europe. Tesla rose on analyst predictions that they would beat revenue projections in Q3. They both gained over +3% today. Walt Disney (DIS) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, losing more than -3% after a downgrade from Barclays. Cloudflare (NET) rose another +7.80% today, topping the Daily Update Growth List again. The company announced a partnership with Microsoft to improve website search results. The stock is on its 12th straight positive session and has gained more than 60% in October. Upwork (UPWK) was at the bottom of the growth list, declining -3.14% today, pulling back from the recent rally. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will kick-off with Building Permits, and Housing Starts data for September. Three Fed officials (Daly, Bowman, and Bostic) are scheduled to speak tomorrow. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market close. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Netflix (NFLX), Philip Morris (PM), Fifth Third (FITB), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) will release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 15,000 support/resistance area today. The next critical level is at 15,085, the previous peak in late September before the index dropped lower. The one-day and five-day trend lines point at a +1.02% gain for Tuesday. The trend line from the 10/4 low ends with a -0.47% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems today's bullishness among investors is a carry-over from last week's surprise Retail Sales data. The data showed that inflation was not keeping consumers away from spending and pushed off stagflation fears, at least for now. Despite slower job growth, consumers have plenty of money to spend after record savings during the pandemic. After four days of gains, it certainly would be OK for the index to move sideways for tomorrow, but I believe support will hold at 15,00. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/15Summary: Retail Sales jumped 0.7% in September compared to analysts' expectation for a decline. That gave a massive boost to Consumer Discretionary stocks while the Financial sector topped a week of positive earnings reports with a huge beat from Goldman Sachs. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 15, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 90% (w/gap), Body: 11% Green Good: Move above 50d MA on higher volume, high closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, long lower wick didn't fill gap, thin body Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.75%), DJI (+1.09%), RUT (-0.37%), VIX (-3.32%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) and Financials (XLF +1.49%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.24%) and Utilities (XLU -0.29%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Retail Sales jumped 0.7% in September compared to analysts' expectation for a decline. That gave a massive boost to Consumer Discretionary stocks while the Financial sector topped a week of positive earnings reports with a huge beat from Goldman Sachs. The Nasdaq climbed above its 50d moving average with a +0.50% advance today on higher volume. The candle has a thin green body, covering just 11% in the upper half of the stick. The long lower wick wasn't enough to fill a gap at open. Despite the gain on higher volume, there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock as small-caps struggled today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) started the day with a +1.41% gain but lost support and ended with a -0.37% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.75% and +1.09%. The VIX Volatility Index receded -3.32% as investors relaxed from stagflation fears. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) and Financials (XLF +1.49%) were at the top. Consumer Discretionary got a boost from retail sales, while Financials gained on an excellent earnings week. Both sector ETFs set new all-time highs. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.24%) and Utilities (XLU -0.29%) were at the bottom of the list as investors moved to higher-risk equities in growth and cyclical sectors. Retail Sales grew 0.7% in September compared to the forecast for a -0.2% decline. However, the impact of higher prices at the cash register has weighed on the consumer. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment data came in lower than expected, and both remain near low levels set back in August. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index also came in lower than expected, registering 19.8 compared to a forecast of 27.0. The US Dollar declined slightly (DXY -0.03%) while US Treasury yields moved higher. The yield curve continues to flatten as the gap between long-term and short-term yields tightens. High Yield (HYG) And Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bonds declined after two days of sharp increases. Gold retreated -1.62%. Copper is nearing a record high while Aluminum continues to set new records. The put/call ratio rose to 0.684. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to Neutral after hitting Extreme Fear several times in October. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 64.46 from 68.6 the previous week. Amazon (AMZN) gained +3.31% on the retail sales data today, leading the four largest mega-caps higher and shooting past both the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. All four largest mega-caps ended the day with gains. Only Apple (AAPL) remains below its 50d MA. Mastercard (MA) was the top mega-cap for the day, matching Amazon's +3.31% and benefiting from expected higher transaction fees that go along with a rise in retail sales. Tesla (TSLA) also topped +3.02%, making a list of China's top 15 EV manufacturers by deliveries. There were not many decliners in the mega-cap list, but Facebook found itself at the bottom with a -1.15% decline as the Communications sector also declined today. It was mixed results for the Daily Update Growth List. NIO (NIO) topped the list with a +3.94% gain. NIO did not make the list of the top 15 EV manufacturers in China but announced doubling its manufacturing capacity. FUTU Holdings and UP Fintech continued to sell-off on regulatory fears, with FUTU at the bottom of the growth list, declining -13.66% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Industrial Production data will be available Monday morning, and an update to the Federal Budget Balance will come in the afternoon. Although next week will be another busy earnings week, none are significant for the Daily Update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above the 50d MA today and is approaching the 15,000 support/resistance area. The one-day and five-day trend lines show a similar result, approximately a +0.28% gain for Monday. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, expect a -0.32% decline which would be a move below the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Friday marked the end of a constructive week for the market. Investors set aside fears of stagflation and looked at improving retail activity as an indicator consumers are getting back out and spending despite higher prices at the cash register. Key sectors are leading indexes higher. While the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones heads back toward new highs, the small-caps in the Russell 2000 continue to chop up and down. That may change once the Fed begins tapering bond purchases, sending the USD higher, and weighing on valuations for large multinational corporations. Communications was the only sector to decline for the week. Facebook continues to face scrutiny over social media policies which could turn into regulation for the sector. With the increasing volume as the index moves higher, it's reasonable to expect more gains for next week. Resistance levels will come at 15,000, 15,085, and 15,200 before the index can attempt a new high. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/14Summary: Even today's worst-performing sector gained over one percent, marking a very bullish day with gains broad across the market. The Nasdaq had a 1.4 advance/decline ratio, while the New York Stock Exchange recorded a ratio of 3.6 advancers to decliners. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 14, 2021 Facts: +1.73%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98% (w/gap), Body: 83% Green Good: Very bullish day with very few declines, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Gap may need to be revisited Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body Advance/Decline: 1.38, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.71%), DJI (+1.56%), RUT (+1.44%), VIX (-9.55%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +2.43%) and Technology (XLK +2.25%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.13%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Even today's worst-performing sector gained over one percent, marking a very bullish day with gains broad across the market. The Nasdaq had a 1.4 advance/decline ratio, while the New York Stock Exchange recorded a ratio of 3.6 advancers to decliners. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +1.73% after gapping up in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day, and the candle is mostly green body with a 98% closing range, including the gap. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the next best-performing index with a +1.71% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.56%, and the Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced by +1.44%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) fell back to its lowest level since mid-September with a -9.55% decline today. All S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Materials (XLB +2.43%) and Technology (XLK +2.25%) are at the top of the list. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.13%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.05%) were at the bottom, both still gaining over one percent. Producer Price Index data came in lower than expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was at 0.2% month-over-month compared to 0.5%. Total PPI came in at 0.5% against the 0.6% expectation. While a miss in PPI is typically bearish for the US Dollar, it’s a welcome sight in this year's market since it is a leading indicator of inflation. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 293,000 against a forecast of 319,000, showing strength in the labor market recovery. Crude Oil Inventories were much higher than expected at 6.1 million barrels compared to a forecast of 0.7 million barrels. The US Dollar declined only -0.02% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields fell while the 2y yield advanced. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both sharply increased. Silver and Gold both advanced. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all advanced. The put/call ratio declined to 0.590. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the Fear range but moving closer to Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 64.46 from 68.6 the previous week. Things are looking much better for the four largest mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) ad over 2% advances to close higher than the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) also advanced today but have some work before clearing the moving averages. ASML Holding (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), and United Health (UNH) all soared over 4% to top the mega-cap list. Both Bank of America and United Health beat earnings expectations before the market opened. Overall earnings releases for big banks have been very positive this week. There were only four decliners in the list, with Oracle (ORCL) losing -1.16% to end up at the bottom. GrowGeneration (GRWG) bounced back from yesterday's loss to climb +5.21% today and top the daily update growth list. UP Fintech (TIGER) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were at the bottom of the list, declining -21.19% and -12.41%. Investors turned very bearish on the two companies after new privacy laws in China could restrict investors from using the platforms for international investments. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data is due on Friday morning before the market opens. In addition, Export/Import price indexes, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Expectations data will all be available in the morning. Tomorrow's premarket earnings reports include Goldman Sachs (GS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq soared above its 21d EMA today but closed below the 50d MA. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that will mean a +0.61% advance. After today's huge gain, a return to the five-day trend line and the trend line from the 10/4 low points to a -0.67% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Relief on inflation and a strong labor report was just what investors needed to put off stagflation fears and get back into equity positions. It also helped that earnings reports from the financial sector have mainly been positive this week. Based on today's bullish action, the expectation for tomorrow is higher. There is the chance for a decline to fill today's gap, which may happen if any surprises come in the morning economic data. But I'd still expect today's bullish outlook to overcome any dip. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/13Summary: Investors moved past inflation data to mark a day of gains in the market, but caution was present with defensive sectors outperforming. There were no surprises in the Fed's meeting minutes that confirmed a start to bond purchase tapering in November. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 13, 2021 Facts: +0.73%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 85%, Body: 29% Green Good: Green body almost entire above previous candle body, long lower wick Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under a short Green body Advance/Decline: 1.01, one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.30%), DJI (-0.00%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-6.10%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.17%) and Materials (XLB +0.75%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.09%) and Financials (XLF -0.57%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors moved past inflation data to mark a day of gains in the market, but caution was present with defensive sectors outperforming. There were no surprises in the Fed's meeting minutes that confirmed a start to bond purchase tapering in November. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.73% gain. Volume was slightly lower than the previous day. The 29% green body sits in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed in the first hour of trading. The index rebounded from the morning decline to end the day with an 85% closing range. There was an equal number of advancing and declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.34%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.30%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) remained flat for the day but regained losses from the morning. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -6.10%. Utilities (XLU +1.17%) led the sector list, signaling caution among investors. Materials (XLB +0.75%) was in the second spot at the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF -0.57%) was the worst sector for the day despite several positive earnings reports in the morning. Although JP Morgan (JPM) beat predictions on revenues and earnings, they missed Net Interest Margin, a key indicator of business performance in big banks. Core CPI came in at 4.0% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month as expected by analysts. However, the total CPI, which includes food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month compared to an expectation of 0.3%. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected, signaling less demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -0.54%. The yield gap tightened more with 30y and 10y Treasury Yields dropping while the 2y Treasury yield rose. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices moved higher. Silver and Gold both rose sharply. Timber and Copper also had significant gains for the day while Aluminum pulled back from record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.669. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to decline for the day after news broke yesterday of iPhone 13 orders being reduced due to the chip shortage. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.17%, moving above its 21d exponential and 50d moving average line. Novo Nordisk (NVO) was the top mega-cap for the day. Nobo, Alibaba (BABA), and ASML Holding (ASML) all had gains of over 2.5%. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was JP Morgan Chase (JPM), declining -2.64%. Sea Limited (SE), DataDog (DDOG), and Crowdstrike (CRWD) topped the Daily Update Growth List, each gaining over 7% today. GrowGeneration (GRWG) declined -11.92% after canceling an acquisition, putting the stock at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow's economic calendar includes the Producer Price Index data and Initial Jobless Claims. Crude Oil Inventories comes later in the morning. In the afternoon, the Federal Budget Balance will be available. Important earnings reports for tomorrow include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), United Health (UNG), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Citigroup (C ), US Bancorp (USB), Walgreens Boots (WBA), and Domino's Pizza (DPZ). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back above the 14,500 support area but remained below its 50 moving average and 21d exponential moving average lines. The continuation of the one-day trend line would result in a +0.34% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -1.05% decline. If the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 high, that will result in a -1.73% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors seemed to grow a bit more comfortable with inflation numbers today. Although there is plenty of caution in the market, there were no severe reactions to today's higher-than-expected price data. The worry remains that inflation is not transitory as the Fed has stated in the past and that the stalling labor market will lead to a case of stagflation. On the chart, there was good support above yesterday's close, and the green body is almost entirely above the red body of yesterday. Overall, a bullish day for the index. Tomorrow, we'll look for more volume with continued breadth (high advance/decline ratio). The expectation is for sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/12Summary: Soaring oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and bond tapering have investors buying up the US dollar while causing downward pressure on mega-caps stocks. Small caps led on Tuesday while big technology stocks declined. Notes I missed yesterday's update. First time in over a year to miss one, but I had a great two-day vacation with my kids. :) Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 12, 2021 Facts: -0.14%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 22%, Body: 66% Red Good: Advance/decline ratio Bad: Decline on higher volume, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.09, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.24%), DJI (-0.34%), RUT (+0.05%), VIX (-0.75%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.79%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.52%) and Communications (XLC -0.93%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Soaring oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and bond tapering have investors buying up the US dollar while causing downward pressure on mega-caps stocks. Small caps led on Tuesday while big technology stocks declined. The Nasdaq declined -0.14% after several intraday rallies above 14,500 failed to get support. Volume was higher than the previous day. The red body covers 66% of the candle, which has a closing range of 22%. Despite the decline, there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The decrease in the index came primarily from large mega-caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.05%, with small-caps having better relative performance in the context of a stronger USD. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.24%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -0.75%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.79%) were at the top of the sector list. The Real Estate sector is a place investors can protect against inflation. Consumer Discretionary got a boost from Tesla, which rose with other renewable energy stocks on fears of an oil crisis. Technology (XLK -0.52%) and Communications (XLC -0.93%) were at the bottom of the sector list, brought down by big tech stocks. JOLTs Job Openings were at 10.4 million, lower than the forecast of 10.9 million. Fed members reiterated that the central bank is on track to start bond tapering next month. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining +0.16% on higher demand. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields all declined for the day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices bounced up after several days of sharp declines. Crude Oil Futures declined a bit but are still near all-time highs. Aluminum Futures are also near all-time highs after a massive gain on Monday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.581. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the middle of the Fear range. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) held onto a gain for the day, advancing +0.03%. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.91% after Bloomberg reported the company would slash iPhone 13 production due to the chip crunch. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -1.77%, taking the Communications sector lower. There are more declining stocks than advancing stocks in the mega-cap list. The top-performing mega-cap for the day was Nike (NKE). At the bottom of the mega-cap list is Intel (INTC). The daily update growth list has more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Renewable energy stocks topped the list, with Solar Edge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) advancing +7.80% and +5.32%. Etsy (ETSY) also exceeded a 5% gain, rising +5.34%. Robinhood (HOOD), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU) were at the bottom of the growth list, all declining more than -3%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead A look at inflation comes in two forms on Wednesday. First, the OPEC monthly report will show how oil producers respond to shortages as demand spikes and supply chains choke. Second, Consumer Price Index data will be available before the market opens. Later in the day, investors will closely look at the Fed's minutes from their most recent meeting, looking for more clues on a tightening of monetary policy. Tomorrow's market will also open with the first significant earnings reports for this quarter. JP Morgan (JPM), BlackRock (BLK), Wipro (WIT), Delta Air Lines (DAL) all report earnings before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq attempted to rise above the 14,500 area three times today but did not get support and closed below the line. If the index rejoins the five-day trend line, that will mean a +0.75% gain for Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a lateral move of a +0.03% gain. The trend line from the 9/7 high ends with a -0.94% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears around the impact of inflation amongst higher oil prices and tighter monetary policy, while employment growth is slowing, are now turning investors' worries toward stagflation. As employment growth stalls, wages remain stagnant or decline while the prices of goods rise. After the JOLTs job openings report today showed fewer than expected jobs, the inflation numbers become even more critical tomorrow. The expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
QQQ (nasdaq etf) - Support, Resistance, Trend - October 2021Nasdaq index ETF has been in a daily downtrend since September 2021. QQQ price is currently below trendline resistance. Bearish scenario: price falls below $360 down to $350. Bullish scenario: price breaks above $365 up to $372. Resistance(s): $365, $368, $372, $374, $378, $382. Support(s): $360, $353, $350, $348, $345, $341. Q3 2021 earnings season is starting, and will likely be the catalyst for price volatility for the next 30 days.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by NoFomoCharts
Daily Market Update for 10/8Summary: Markets moved lower after payrolls data missed expectations. Energy stocks led the day following Crude Oil Futures higher, while Financial stocks did well on rising interest rates. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 8, 2021 Facts: -0.51%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 8%, Body: 88% Red Good: Decline on lower volume, stayed above 14,500 support area Bad: Lower high, lower low, selling most of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.49, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.19%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (-3.94%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +0.49%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.74%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.09%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets moved lower after payrolls data missed expectations. Energy stocks led the day following Crude Oil Futures higher, while Financial stocks did well on rising interest rates. The Nasdaq lost -0.51% for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is almost entirely red body, with tiny upper and lower wicks. The 88% Red body is above an awful 8% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.03% for the day while leading the major indexes in gains for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.19%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only index to decline for the week, losing -0.76% today. Despite selling across the market, the VIX Volatility Index declined -3.94%, continuing to fall from its elevated level earlier in the week. Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +0.49%) were the only gaining sectors today and performed the best for the week. Energy is rising on higher oil prices while Financials is getting the benefit of higher interest rates. Next week kicks of earnings season for the big banks. Utilities (XLU -0.74%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.09%) were at the bottom of today's sector list. The labor market added only 194,000 payrolls in September against a forecast of 500,000. However, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.8%, while analysts expected 5.1%. Average Hourly Earnings grew faster than expected. The US Dollar weakened for the day, with the dollar index (DXY) declining -0.10%. US Treasury yields rose for another day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall along with Treasury prices (prices fall, yields rise). Crude Oil Futures soared back to record highs. Timber fell, but Copper and Aluminum rose. The put/call ratio fell to 0.734. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the middle of the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed to 68.6 after declining to 55.02 the previous week. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) gained today, closing above its 50d moving average line. Microsoft (MSFT) closed flat after climbing mid-day. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list again with a +3.54% gain. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were also in the top four, carrying the Energy sector higher. Upwork (UPWK) was the top performer in the daily update growth list. The list contains mostly decliners today, with MongoDB (MDB) dropping the most at -5.05%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no significant economic events scheduled for Monday. Next week will kick-off earnings season for big banks, but none are on the schedule for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq steadily declined from the 21d EMA throughout the day but closed above the 14,500 support area. The five-day trend line points to a +1.64% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line ends with a -0.38% decline. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -1.60% loss to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It doesn't take much to cause declines in this skittish market. The lack of new payrolls, while the unemployment rate dropped in September, is a head-scratcher. Add that to the research list for this weekend. The expectation for Monday is sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/7Summary: A deal over raising the debt-ceiling eased investor worries and sent markets higher on Thursday. The rally included broad gains across the market, with small caps and growth stocks leading the way. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 7, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59% (w/gap), Body: 16% Green Good: Gap up at open and rally in morning, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Resistance at 21d EMA, lost momentum in afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thin green body at bottom of the candle after a gap up Advance/Decline: 1.8, almost two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.83%), DJI (+0.98%), RUT (+1.59%), VIX (-6.95%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.56%) and Health (XLV +1.33%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A deal over raising the debt-ceiling eased investor worries and sent markets higher on Thursday. The rally included broad gains across the market, with small caps and growth stocks leading the way. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +1.05%. After a gap-up at open, the morning rally led to a +1.75% advance. The advance met resistance at the 21d EMA and fell back from the intraday high. The candle has a thin 16% green body resting under a long upper wick. The closing range is 59%, including the gap at open. Almost two stocks advanced for every declining stock. Small-caps did very well, advancing the Russell 2000 (RUT) +1.59% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.98%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) was up +0.83%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -6.95%. Ten of the eleven SPDR sectors advanced today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.56%) and Health (XLV +1.33%) were at the top. The defensive sectors of Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 326,000 against an expectation of 348,000. The recovery for the labor market seems to be back on track. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.27%. Treasury Yields rose as well, climbing in the afternoon, which may explain the fallback from intraday highs in the Nasdaq. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices ticked slightly higher while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved lower. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all rose or the day. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.739 after hitting its highest point in a year yesterday. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in Fear but moved further toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed to 68.6 after declining to 55.02 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) joined Microsoft (MSFT) in moving above its 21d EMA, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed above its 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a +8.26% gain. Investors are hoping a meeting between Biden and Xi will ease US-China tensions. Only a handful of mega-caps declined today, with Facebook (FB) sitting at the bottom of the list. Chinese stocks dominated the top of the Daily Update Growth List. Alibaba (BABA), NIO (NIO), UP Fintech (TIGR), and JD.com (JD) were the top four. Like the mega-cap list, only five stocks declined for the day, with Facebook (FB) being the worst performer. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Additional employment data will be available on Friday. The data will include Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change, and the Unemployment rate. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq blasted through the 14,500 resistance area and climbed to meet resistance at its 21d EMA line. The one-day and five-day trend lines are moving in opposite directions but meet up at a +0.10% gain for Friday. If the rally loses steam and the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 top, that would mean a -2.11% gain for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This year, we've endured multiple cases of pending doom turned into optimistic rallies when the worries ease. Supply chain woes, Inflation, Interest Rates, Employment, the Debt-ceiling are just a few of the big ones that we've pushed through. Given the resistance at the 21d EMA, perhaps tomorrow will be Sideways. Otherwise, I'd expect Higher unless something looks wrong in the employment data. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 10/6Summary: Markets rebounded from early morning losses after a deal to lift the debt ceiling until December made investors more optimistic. Defensive sectors led the day, indicating some nervousness still exists in the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 06, 2021 Facts: +0.47%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 85% Green Good: Higher high, thick green body, high closing range Bad: Lower low, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bullish engulfing candle, Mostly green body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.46, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.41%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-0.60%), VIX (-1.41%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.55%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.97%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.19%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets rebounded from early morning losses after a deal to lift the debt ceiling until December made investors more optimistic. Defensive sectors led the day, indicating some nervousness still exists in the market. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.47% gain. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 97% closing range came at the end of a bullish afternoon, creating a candle with an 85% green body. The lower wick is short, while the upper wick is almost invisible. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.30%. Small-caps could not fully recover from the morning losses, and the Russell 2000 (RUT) closed with a -0.60% decline. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) remained elevated despite a -1.41% decline today. Defensive sectors topped the sector list with Utilities (XLU +1.55%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.97%) leading the way up. Eight of the eleven SPDR sectors gained for the day. Materials (XLB -0.19%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) are at the bottom of the list. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came in higher than expected, providing a positive outlook for the labor market. Crude Oil Inventories showed less demand than forecast. Today, US Republican Senator Mitch McConnell revealed that Republicans could agree to a short-term lifting of the debt ceiling until December. The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced by +0.27% for the day. US 30y and 10y yields started the day with a sharp rise but ended with a slight decline while the 2y yield rose steadily throughout the day. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced slightly for the day. Crude Oil Futures pulled back from record highs after inventories were higher than expected. Timber, Copper, Aluminum all declined. The put/call ratio soared to its highest intraday level in a year but came back down to end the day at 0.919. The high ratio shows a bearish sentiment in investors. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range from Extreme Fear earlier this week. All four largest mega-caps gained today. Microsoft (MSFT) overtook its 21d EMA again with a +1.51% gain. PepsiCo (PEP) was the best mega-cap of the day after pleasing investors with an earnings beat and improved outlook for this year. Toyota Motor (TM ) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -3% decline. The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List had another positive day. CloudFlare (NET) topped the list for a second day, gaining 15% over the two days. Ehang Holdings (EH) was at the bottom of the list. www.tradingview.com -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be available before the market opens on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed at the 14,500 resistance area after the morning dip turned into an afternoon rally. The one-day trend line points to a +1.01% gain for Thursday. The trend line from the 9/7 high and the five-day trend line end with a -1.16% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The willingness of Republicans to temporarily extend the debt ceiling until December is a positive for wary investors who were positioning for the worst. It's still not a done deal and also just pushes the deadline out for two months. But in the meantime, it shows the Republicans don't want to force the issue to catastrophe. Based on the bullish engulfing candle and the move higher on higher volume, the expectation is for Sideways or Higher. There would be more conviction in a move higher if the advance/decline ratio showed more gains broadly across the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 10/5Summary: Stocks bounced higher following days of selling in big tech and growth stocks. While economic indicators are looking positive, fears still loom over the debt ceiling debate in Washington. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 05, 2021 Facts: +1.25%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 58% Green Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Later afternoon fade from intraday high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long upper wick over a green body covering half the candle Advance/Decline: 1.04, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.05%), DJI (+0.92%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (-7.23%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.96%) and Communications (XLC +1.49%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.25%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks bounced higher following days of selling in big tech and growth stocks. While economic indicators are looking positive, fears still loom over the debt ceiling debate in Washington. The Nasdaq advanced +1.25% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a green body covering the lower half of the range, leaving a long upper wick formed from selling right before close. The body is 58% of the candle, while the closing range is at 64%. There were about the same number of advancing and declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.05% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.92%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.49%. The VIX Volatility Index declined -7.23% but remained elevated. Financials (XLF +1.96%) and Communications (XLC +1.49%) led the sector list. Only two sectors declined, Utilities (XLU -0.25%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%). Energy (XLE +0.58%) led in the morning, opening with a +2.43% gain before fading to end the day with a +0.58% gain. Technology (XLK +1.43%) was in close third place for the day. While Trade Balance data was not super positive, domestic measures of the economy in the form of Services and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing activity were higher than expected. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining + 0.19% for the day. US Treasury yields gained for the day but do not seem to be on an out-of-control ascent that we feared late last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) prices declined. Crude Oil Futures continue to soar higher. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.627. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range after hitting Extreme Fear yesterday. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) seem to be forming a base that could take them higher as they attempt to move back above key moving average lines. Netflix (NFLX) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining over 5% and hitting a new all-time high. Merck (MRK) was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day as investors took profits from recent gains. CloudFlare (NET) and Digital Turbine (APPS) topped the daily update growth list with +8.52% and +6.06% gains. Most of the stocks on the list did well today. The biggest losers at the bottom of the list were Zoom Video (ZM) and Penn National Gaming (PENN). PepsiCo (PEP) gained +0.59% for the day after beating expectations and improving their outlook for the year in a pre-market earnings release. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment Change tomorrow morning will show any progress in the labor market recovery. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens. A planned vote for tomorrow on raising the debt ceiling is likely to be rejected by Republicans and could cause more volatility in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq support at 14,200 in yesterday's session turned into gains today before the index met resistance at 14,500. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, we can expect a +1.16% gain and move above the 14,500 support/resistance area. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -0.47% decline for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends in a -0.99% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The debt ceiling vote tomorrow seems already decided, with Republicans publicly rejecting the measure. Nonetheless, the drama playing out in Washington will cause volatility in the market. Based on the chart, the expectation is Sideways or Higher but prepare for a wild ride. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
7
Daily Market Update for 10/4Summary: Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 04, 2021 Facts: -2.14%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 75% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Large decline, low advance/decline ratio, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper wick, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.29, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.30%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-1.08%), VIX (+8.82%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.63%) and Utilities (XLU +1.38%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.14% decline. The selling started right at the market open and continued through the morning, creating a large red body covering 75% of the candle. The lower wick formed from a slight gain in the afternoon. The closing range was 23%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better, only losing -0.94% for the day as the Energy sector helped the index. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.30%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.08%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +8.56% for the day. Energy (XLE +1.63%) topped the sector list thanks to Monday morning's OPEC meeting news. The only other two sectors to gain for the day were Utilities (XLU +1.38%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%), both defensive sectors. Two growth sectors, Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) were at the bottom of the sector list. OPEC decided to hold output at current levels, predicting higher demand in the next several months. Factory Orders data released in the morning showed 1.2% month-over-month growth compared to the forecast of 1.0%. The US dollar index (DXY) declined -0.29%. US Treasury Yields were up for the day but settled back from a morning spike that panicked investors. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices were down sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also fell for the day. Crude Oil Futures was up +3.72% today. Copper and Aluminum futures also gained on the day, likely because of the higher-than-expected Factory Orders data. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.759. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped back into Extreme Fear. All four of the largest mega-caps had significant declines for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) seem to be getting some support at their current level, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still in free-fall. Merck (MRK) was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Exxon Mobil (XOM). At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Facebook (FB), which dealt with a multi-hour outage across its large social platforms. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List advanced for the day. Tesla (TSLA) and CloudFlare (NET) ended the day with gains. The worst stocks on the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), Fastly (FSLY), and FUTU Holding (FUTU), all with more than 7% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data will be available Tuesday morning before the market opens, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will come after the opening bell. PepsiCo (PEP) releases earnings before the market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support at a previous support/resistance level of 14,200. If the index can regain the trend-line from the 9/7 high, that will be a +1.04% advance for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.26% decline. A continuation of today's one-day trend line ends with another -1.23% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fear continues to grow over the debt ceiling discussion in Washington while mini-disasters play out worldwide, from the Evergrande challenge in China to the Energy crunch in the UK. Rising yields and higher inflation are bad news for Big Tech and Growth stocks. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1