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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Daily Market Update for 4/01Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (20d), 3/26 (5d) and today 4/1 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 1, 2021 Facts: +1.76%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96% (w/ Gap), Body: +79% Good: Rally above and stayed above 50d MA Bad: Flat after initial rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, Mostly green body with barely visible upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.18%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+1.50%), VIX (-10.67%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.55%) and Technology (XLK +2.01%) were top. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Hello April and Q2! The Nasdaq leapt into the new month and quarter with a gap up and rise above the 50d moving average while the S&P 5000 closed over 4000 for the first time in history. Solid breakouts from big tech and a breadth of gains across indexes and sectors helped put strength behind the moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.76% gain on lower volume. The 96% closing range includes the gap and represents a quick rise in the morning that leveled off but never gave back the gains. The 79% body includes a few tests of the 50d MA in intraday trading, but support held. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) set a milestone, advancing +1.18%, to close above 4000 for the first time ever. The Russell 2000 (RUT) put in its third day of gains with a +1.50% advance. The Dow Joins Industrial (DJI) average climbed +0.52%. The VIX volatility index declined -10.67% to close at its lowest point since before the pandemic. Energy (XLE +2.55%) topped the sector list as crude oil prices spiked on better than expected inventory data for Crude and Gasoline, demonstrating high demand. Technology (XLK +2.01%) also topped the sector list, boosted by big tech gains from Microsoft and Apple and generally great performance across the entire sector. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were at the bottom of the list. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) was also at the bottom of the list, not participating in the gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.02% and has leveled off from recent gains, helping alleviate some risk for large multi-nationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both dropped while the 2y note yield rose, helping bring back down the steep yield curve. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices pulled back from recent gains while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices continued to advance. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both continued to advance. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. All of this shows a bullish outlook on the economy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.538. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward Greed, but not at an extreme level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of biggest four mega-caps had gains for the day, gains that had a lot more strength than the previous day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the largest gain of the four with a +3.26% advance and a record-setting close. Microsoft (MSFT) couldn't quite reach all-time highs but advanced +2.79% in a clear breakout from a base. Amazon (AMZN) had a +2.16% gain but stopped short of its 50d MA line. Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.70%, closing just above its 21d EMA but well below its 50d MA. Semiconductors and Communication stocks topped the mega-cap list. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet were the top four gainers. Most mega-caps advanced for the day. UnitedHealth (UNH), Toyota Motor ™ and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list, all declining more than 1%. Growth Stocks also had a good day. Topping the daily update list were MongoDB (MDB), Pinterest (PINS), DataDog (DDOG) and Fastly (FSLY). All four of these sold off heavily in February and March and are trying to regain ground. At the bottom of the list were Chewy (CHWY), Ehang Holdings (EH) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Good Friday, but employment data will be released. At the time of this writing, the data is already released and showed great recovery in the labor market. Monday will kick-off the week with Purchasing Managers data for March that is a leading indicator for economic activity. That data will be complemented by Factor Orders data just after market open. There are no notable earnings reports for the daily update next week except maybe PAYX on Tuesday that could confirm a positive outlook for the labor market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 50d moving average in the morning and stayed above the line. The five-day trend line points to a +0.47% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line points sideways to a minor -0.05% decline and stays above the 50d MA line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.67% loss, which below the 50d MA and just above the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The expectation was higher for today. Thankfully the market didn't pull an April Fools. Thursday was the kind of day we want to see as a new month and new quarter starts. Gains across all the indexes and most of the sectors. Volatility at its lowest in over a year. Energy and Technology leading the sector list. Solid moves from the large mega-caps. Commodity prices advanced on expected demand. The US Dollar is strengthening but not out of control. The yield curve is starting to show some control. The only thing missing was volume. It was lower than the previous day. However, that may also be a positive sign as volume has been running high since the beginning of December and peaked in February. Maybe, just maybe, some of the frenzy of retail investing as subsided and volume is coming back down to normal levels. Maybe, just maybe, lower volume means continued lower volatility as well. That looks good, but things can change quickly, so always trade with a stop loss. :) Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - April 1Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also ask for the "Like" clock. Have a nice day. ---------------------------------- You should watch for any movement that deviates from the box section 3008.91-3294.62. In particular, we have to see if we can get off the downtrend line. If you go down from 2961.97, you can touch 2379.61, so you need a Stop Loss to preserve profit or loss. The next volatility period is around April 28th. ------------------------------------ (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (33067.0-33116.0) rising and closed at -0.26%. ------------------------------------ (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (13045.4-13122.6) rising and ended at 1.54%. ------------------------------------ (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3958.6-3967.3) rising and closed at 0.36%. ------------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We have to see if we can get support at 1703.120 and climb above 1727.175. If it falls, you can touch the 1659.369 point, so you need to trade carefully. ---------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) We have to see if we can ascend above the 60.25 point. If it falls, you can touch the 55.26 point, so you need to trade carefully. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, you need to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Hence, the interpretation is the same as the traditional Stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective. GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 3/31Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (19d), 3/25 (5d) and today 3/31 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 31, 2021 Facts: +1.54%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: +60% Good: Higher high, lower low, back above the 21d EMA Bad: Fade at the end of the day created long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with n lower wick, long upper wick Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.26%), RUT (+1.13%), VIX (-1.07%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The breakout that wasn't. News from Microsoft drove a mid-afternoon buying frenzy that was visible in the Microsoft intraday chart and big enough to show up in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 charts. However, the breakout quickly faded and took the indexes with it to close away from intraday highs. Still there were good gains in the market thanks to a bullish morning on positive economic outlook with Biden's announced infrastructure plans. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.54% gain on higher volume, and gave us the gain with higher confidence we were waiting for. The closing range of 62% is above a 60% body with no lower wick. There is a long upper wick from the dip at the end of the day. There were 1.32 advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) added to the previous day's gains with a +1.13% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) also advanced, gaining +0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was weighed down by Financial and Energy stocks and declined -0.26%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.07%. Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top sectors for the day. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were at the bottom. Interestingly, Materials (XLB -0.49%) and Industrials (XLI -0.32%) declined for the day despite Biden's infrastructure plans. It could be a case of sell the news. Another note is that Utilities (XLU +0.74%) climbed in the last hour from fifth place to third place just behind Consumer Discretionary. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed -0.07%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y notes yields all gained for the day with the yield curve steepening. The increase in yields was not a surprise given the news on infrastructure investments, so there was less of a negative reaction from the equities market. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both reversed from two days of declines and advanced today. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.639. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to Neutral. The stock market components of the index are still in the Fear and Extreme Fear categories. Those include price strength, price breadth and Put/Call ratio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of biggest four mega-caps had gains for the day, but all closed well below intraday highs. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed above the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) rallied above the 21d EMA but was unable to hold above the line. The higher volume is a positive, but the pull back from the breakout attempt shows some weakness. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML) were the top mega-caps of the day. Energy and Financial stocks were at the bottom, including Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and JP Morgan (JPM). Communications companies AT&T (T) and Comcast Corp (CMCSA) were also at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks popped again today. Leading the list were Chinese fintech companies Up Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) with +20.94% and 15.20% gains. GrowGeneration (GRWG) and Moderna (MRNA) also had gains of over 10%. 18 of the growth stocks in the daily update list gained over 5%. It's not meant to be an exhaustive list, but the point remains, there were a lot of big gainers today in growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, an OPEC meeting is scheduled which will impact outlook for oil supply/demand. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released. Additional Manufacturing data for March will indicate how the sector is recovering. Also keep in mind to characteristics for tomorrow. It's the beginning of a new quarter and a historically positive month for markets. It's also the last day of trading this week heading into a three-day weekend. CarMax (KMX) reports on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 21d EMA in the morning and stayed above that line, despite the dip before close. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +1.02% gain for Thursday, and ending just under the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a +0.42% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.36% loss, which is just below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was positive to see a good gain on higher volume today. The longer upper wick is reminiscent of the candle on 3/22 where I called an expectation of Higher for the next day. But the index dropped 3% over the next two days. So that gives me some caution in the expectation of Sideways or Higher for tomorrow. There are some differences in the underlying characteristics of the 3/22 candle. The breadth in gains was not there for 3/22, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Today, we have more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The advances on 3/22 happened as treasury yields declined and investors seemed to be in and out of tech stocks based on the movement in yields. Today's rally in tech stocks happened despite higher yields. The creation of the longer upper wick was the same, a sell-off into close after an intraday high. The catalyst this time has a few possibilities. Perhaps Yellen's announcement of more scrutiny on hedge funds stirred the market. But the impact of Microsoft's huge afternoon rally and then pullback can also be felt in the indexes. The timing of the rally and sell-off coincides with the rise in the Utilities sector, a sector that investors run to when their nervous. So I'm bullish with caution for tomorrow. Let's look forward to a great first day of April. And market, don't make a fool out of me. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/30Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (17d), 3/24 (5d) and today 3/30 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 30, 2021 Facts: -0.11%, Volume lower, Closing range: 80%, Body: +24% Good: Closing range of 80%, recovered from morning dip below 13,000 Bad: Lower high, lower low, trending down Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: A bit more than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.32%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (+1.72%), VIX (-5.45%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) and Financials (XLF +0.70%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.07%). Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The bond market continued to show its influence on equities today, seemingly in a battle with strong consumer confidence numbers. A pre-market spike in long-term bond yields drove the Financials sector to a gap up at open. However, the yields began to taper off even before stronger than expected consumer confidence numbers were released after market open. The strong numbers sent the Consumer Discretionary sector to the top to finish the day. The Nasdaq never quite recovered from the morning yield scare, but did end the day in the upper range of the candle. The index closed with a -0.11% loss for the day on lower volume. The closing range of 80% is good indicator for intraday bullishness, but the 24% body and lower high means the index still has much to prove. There were 1.2 advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) finally had a day to shine with a +1.72% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) had nearly similar declines with -0.32% and -0.32% respectively. The VIX volatility index declined -5.45%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) topped the sector list, despite starting the day in the negative. The Consumer Confidence numbers were way better than expected and is a leading indicator of consumer spending. Whereas spending on staples typically remains steady during economic downturns, discretionary spending dips and then picks up once the outlook becomes better. Financials (XLF +0.70%) was the second best sector of the day, helped by the morning spike in long term treasury yields that drive interest rates, and revenues for banks. The strength in Industrials (XLI +0.44%) should also be noted as the infrastructure plans from Biden are expected to boost the sector. All other sectors declined for the day (XLC was even). Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (-1.07%) were the bottom two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.38%, likely impacting big tech valuations. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note declined for the day, after a pre-market spike that sent investors scrambling. The 2y note was flat for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined for a second day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.616. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back toward Neutral, but still on the Fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only big four mega-cap to escape losses, but it only had a +0.03% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) had a -1.44% loss as it's 21d EMA moves under the 50d MA, signaling a bearish outlook for the chart. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had losses of -1.23% and -0.66% and both continue to trade underneath both key moving average lines. Alphabet is the only of the big four that has the 21d EMA above the 50d MA. Baidu (BIDU), Tesla (TSLA), Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top four mega-caps and only mega-caps to gain more than 1% for the day. Abbot Laboratories (ABT) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks generally had a good day. Ehang Holdings (EH), Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and RH (RH) topped the daily update list with greater than 6% gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. Employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. President Biden is expected to reveal the details of his infrastructure plan which is expected to be $3 trillion. That could be great for economic recovery, but will have mixed impacts on the market. We could see yields spike again as inflation fears creep back into investors' minds. On the other hand, we are also likely to see some sectors such as Materials and Industrials benefit. Walgreens (WBA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) report on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below 13,000 support again, but was able to regain the line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.06% gain for Wednesday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line does point upward and would result in a +0.60% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.46% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq continues to creep along without any high volume big moves in either direction the last few days. The index did touch the lower line of a channel drawn from the March 2020 bottom. I noted that level in the weekly update. It was tested, but closed inside the channel. Tomorrow is the last day of the month and last day of the quarter. Let's hope for positive end for the month to spring the market into April. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - March 30Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also ask for the "Like" clock. Have a nice day. ---------------------------------- You should watch for any movement that deviates from 3008.91-3148.73. In particular, we have to watch for movements that deviate from the downtrend line. If you fall in the 2961.97-3008.91 section, you can touch the 2379.61 point, so you need to trade carefully. Therefore, Stop Loss is required to preserve profit and loss. It remains to be seen if volatility around March 29 could break above the downtrend line. --------------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (33072.9-33087.6) rising and ended at 0.30%. ----------------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (13138.7-13104.0) and closed at -0.60%. ------------------------------------ (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3974.5-3696.3) falling and closed at -0.09%. ------------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from 1703.120-1727.175. The fall from 1703.120 point, 1659.369 point can be touched, so careful trading is necessary. ------------------------------------ (USOIL 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from 60.25-66.26. It remains to be seen if it can move below the 55.26 point and turn into a downtrend. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective. GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 3/29Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (17d), 3/23 (5d) and today 3/29 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 29, 2021 Facts: -0.6%, Volume lower, Closing range: 52%, Body: -25% Good: Inside day on lower volume with a slightly longer lower wick Bad: Lower high with two intraday dips Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Red body in the middle of candle with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 5 declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.09%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-2.83%), VIX (+9.97%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.07%) and Communications (XLC +1.02%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.32%) and Energy (XLE -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a choppy day to start the week. The intraday movement has the look of a spiral that indicates indecision in the market. That's not unexpected considering that investors had a few things to be nervous about including the re-opening of the Suez Canal and the large forced fire-sale from Archegos continuing into this week. It's also no surprise seeing the impact to the Energy and Financials sectors. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.6% loss on lower volume for the day. The inside day has a lower high and higher low. The closing range is 0.52% which is above the 0.40% that we want to see, and the longer lower wick indicates an upward trend intraday. So despite the red body and decline for the day, there are some positives to the candle. On the other hand, there were five declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) rose +0.30% to end the day with a record setting close. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.09% after closing at a record high last week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took another beating with a -2.83% loss for the day. The VIX volatility index rose +9.97%. Utilities (XLU +1.07%) was the top sector as investors remained defensive throughout the day. Communications (XLC +1.02%) was the second best sector, likely a rebound from last weeks losses. Financials (XLF -0.32%) and Energy (XLE -1.19%) were at the bottom. Big banks are expected to get hit with losses as well as possible regulatory scrutiny on the Archegos situation. The Suez Canal crisis ending is good for shipping but eliminates the potential for crude oil price hikes that would have benefited Energy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.19% as it continues to strengthen. The US Treasury yield curve steepened again. US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose for the day while 2y note yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped slightly to 0.711. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) was the only big four mega-cap to decline for the day, but remains above the important 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +1.04% and closed back above both lines after trading below the 21d EMA all of last week. It's also important to note the intraday dip and support at the 50d MA for Alphabet. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) advanced, but met resistance at their 21d EMA lines. Facebook (FB), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO) and Oracle (ORCL) were the top four mega-caps for the day. About 50% of mega-caps ended the day with gains. Tesla (TSLA), JP Morgan (JPM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and PayPal (PYPL) were at the bottom of the list with more than -1% declines. Among Growth stocks, FUTU Holdings (FUTU) had a big day with a +14.67% gain. Twitter (TWTR) joined Facebook (FB) with about the same gain of +2.7%. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list declined for the day. Gaming stocks Penn National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) were at the bottom of the list with -7.85% and --8.49% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be released just after market open. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be updated after market close. Lululemon (LULU), Chewy (CHWY), Carnival Corp (CCL), and HyreCar (HYRE) will report earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below 13,000 support briefly, but was able to regain the line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.3% gain for Monday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line does point upward and would result in a +0.30% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.67% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up While the opening of the Suez Canal is a relief, the ongoing impact on big banks of the forced Archegos fire sale has investors nervous. In addition, we have the end of a quarter, a continued rotation from growth to value, and overall an environment of mixed economic data. If you are waiting for the Nasdaq to breakout of its funk, it perhaps could happen in the next few days, but more likely will happen in April. The expectation based on the candle is for sideways to higher tomorrow. Some positive news could give investors the boost they need to jump back into growth stocks. Otherwise, it will take some slow but sure gains over days to build the confidence. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Market Week In Review - 3/22/2021 - 3/26/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 22, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 56% Good: Zero lower wick, strong morning rally to above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above 50d MA, losing support late in the session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, green body under a long upper wick. Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.70%), DJI (+0.32%), RUT (-0.91%), VIX (-9.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.75%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Higher Technology stocks showed up big for the first day of the week. The sector outperformed for the day, carrying most of the major indexes to close with positive gains for the day. The advances were not broadly shared, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.23% gain on significantly lower volume. The candle has no lower wick as the opening price level was never revisited after the morning rally. The 56% body sits under a long upper wick that formed during a sell-off just before close. The closing range of 60% includes a gap up at open and is positive, but does represent the weakness at close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 23, 2021 Facts: +1.12%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: -76% Good: Nothing Bad: Back below the 21d EMA with a thick red candle Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Ten declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.76%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-3.58%), VIX (+7.54%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (+0.41%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower The character of the market continues to swing in opposite directions. Expectation was for Sideways or Higher for today, and we got lower. If we were keeping score, you'd notice the expectations I'm setting on a daily basis are broken very consistently over the past few weeks. But it's a good time to remind the reader that the expectations are not predictions, but they are to set and expectation, get our attention when the expectation is broken, and learn what might have changed in the market. Here we go. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.12% decline on higher volume. The candle has small upper and lower wicks, but is mostly red body. The closing range of 12% shows the day very much went to the bears. Few bulls came in to buy back the low prices. The selling was broad, across most sectors, segments and impacted all major indexes. There were 10 declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 24, 2021 Facts: -2.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 99% Good: Nothing, even more nothing than yesterday Bad: No wicks, all red body, close below 13,000 support Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu Black candle, no visible upper or lower wick, all red body Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.55%), DJI (-0.01%), RUT (-2.35%), VIX (+4.43%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%) and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower In the endless rotations, the four cyclical sectors moved from the bottom to the top of the sector list in another session of selling for big tech, consumer discretionary and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -2.01% on higher volume. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 25, 2021 Facts: +0.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: +60% Good: Closed near to intraday highs Bad: Lower low hit in the morning, resistance at 13,000 near close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with a slightly longer lower wick from morning dip Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (-6.56%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.68%) and Industrials (XLI +1.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower Economic news seemed to weigh on the market after open, but investors shook off the weight later in the day to find gains across the major indexes. A short pullback to absorb the reaction from a weak 7y note auction was overcome to close near market intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.19% gain. The candle gave us a lower high and lower low, but overall is bullish look despite a morning dip and afternoon pullback. The closing range is 85% and a thick green body covering 60% of the candle. The lower volume, and lower high mean the trend is still downward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 26, 2021 Facts: +1.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: +53% Good: Rally in afternoon to close near intraday high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with a long lower wick, very small upper wick Advance/Decline: More than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.66%), DJI (+1.39%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-4.80%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -1.09%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher A late afternoon rally in the market closed the week with a positive day for all the major indexes. It's not clear what caused the sudden late afternoon rally. It could just be expiring options activity, or it could be investors outlook of the economy improving. Morning economic data was mixed, but the personal income numbers and consumer sentiment showed the possibility of an upcoming rise in spending. Data from UK and Germany was also positive on their economies. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.24% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% with a 53% green body over a long lower wick was enough to get a higher high on top of a higher low. The higher high and higher low with more volume than the previous day is a great indicator of strength. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week started with supply chain issues as a semiconductor plant in Japan was on fire. The week also ended with supply chain issues as a container ship remained stuck in the Suez Canal, blocking a major shipping route. The blockage caused oil prices to spike and more pressure on an already stressed supply chain. Technology opened the week with huge gains from major leaders. But the gains were limited to big tech and all were on lower volume with no real breakouts. In the broader Nasdaq, there were two losers for every winner. On the surface, the chart looked ok, but the longer upper wick should have been another warning sign. The bears were back on Tuesday and the selling was broad. New lockdowns across Europe and data issues with vaccine trials complicated the pandemic recovery and investors reacted. Utilities and Consumer Staples were at the top of the sector list while the cyclical sectors moved to the bottom. Pandemic stocks got a new life with Netflix, Peloton and Zoom topping the charts again. Global investors fled the US dollar and US treasuries as a safe haven, but equities suffered with 10 declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Wednesday brought another rotation. Cyclical sectors moved from the bottom of the sector list to the top of the sector list. Energy started to climb while a container ship blocking the Suez Canal, threatening oil and supply chain shortages. The US Dollar continued to rise. There were still five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq crossed below a key level of 12,985.05 and looked very bearish with a Marubozu Black candle (no upper or lower wick, just red body). For Thursday, the index needed to hold above 12,783.40 which was the bottom line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index did hold, but not before testing that channel line. The Thursday candle is bullish. However, the lower high and lower low meant the downtrend continues. On the positive side, there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The US dollar gained again and the impact of a stronger dollar started to show up in the mega-caps list. Companies at the top of the gains list were ones that could benefit from a stronger dollar. Companies at the bottom of the list would have some negative impact by a strong dollar. Friday opened with a mix of economic news and the continued stress of the Suez Canal blockage. The rally in the final hour saved the day to close the index higher. The reason for the rally was unclear, but may have been from positive economic news in Europe or it could have been market maker activity to cover for expiring options. The volume was higher, but still not as high as average volume since the beginning of the year. To put more confidence in a rally, I'd like to see consistent buying throughout the day with higher than average volume. The Nasdaq declined -0.58% for the week on lower volume. The closing range of 53% is better than the previous week, but we have a lower high and a lower low. The Nasdaq gave us a lower high and a lower low this week. A symmetrical triangle is forming which is usually followed by a move in the direction of the previous trend. I focus on the Nasdaq because it holds many of the growth stocks that I tend to have in my portfolio. But I always keep an eye on the other major indexes in this report. The S&P 500 (SPX) had an all-time high close for the week and advanced +1.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed with a +1.36% gain. Small caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) struggled for a second week. It dipped more than 8% at one point but climbed back to close with a 62% closing range and end the week with a -2.89% loss. The VIX volatility index closed the week at its lowest since March of 2020, declining -9.98% for the week. There were several changes of winners and losers during a week that ended with the S&P 500 at a record close. Technology ( XLK ) led for the first two days of the week. It held the lead on Tuesday, but was sold off heavily on Wednesday and Thursday, but then ended the week with a huge gain on Friday, putting it in third place. Utilities ( XLU ) topped the list on Tuesday as investors became defensive. Utilities didn't take the top weekly spot on until Thursday when investors became more cautious again. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) remained steady throughout the volatile week and ended the week at the top. After last week's rout, Energy ( XLE ) seemed to find a bottom on Tuesday. After a big gain on Wednesday, the sector opened back near the bottom on Thursday, but quickly recovered . By the end of Friday, it was able to end the week with a gain. Communication Services ( XLC ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) were the only two sectors to decline for the week. Communication Services ended the week at the bottom with more than a 4% decline. Although Technology sector fared well, there is still evidence of rotation from growth to value. Longer term treasury yields pulled back from recent gains. The US 30y bond and US 10y note yields both dropped relative to the 2y note. There was a brief scare with a disappointing 7y note auction on Thursday, but bonds did not sell off heavily like after the previous lackluster auctions. The yield curve still remains steep but has stopped steepening for the past few weeks. High Yields Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices both advanced for the week. The spread between corporate bonds and short term treasury bonds tightened. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.89% and is now having some impact on multinationals valuations. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) remained about even for the week, despite a choppy up and down week. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. The continuing growth in aluminum prices is a signal of the high demand created by the recovering economy and manufacturing companies trying to keep up with expected demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) were able to end the week with gains while Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined for the week. Microsoft and Alphabet closed above their 10w moving average lines. Apple is below the 10w but above the 40w moving average. Amazon remains below both moving average lines. Relative to the Nasdaq, Microsoft and Alphabet have been outperforming while Apple and Amazon have been underperforming. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil was the only one to end the week with gains as oil prices are expected to rise with the continued blockage of the Suez Canal. The others sold off sharply early in the week as the pandemic seemed to pop back into investors' worries. They all recovered later in the week, but not enough to end the week with gains. All of the four recovery stocks are trading above both key moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.753. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is near to the neutral territory. The NAAIM exposure index moved down to 57.52. Money managers were reducing positions in the market as of Wednesday when the survey is taken. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Next week will only have four days of trading. Markets will be closed for Good Friday. A few short term bill auctions are scheduled for Monday. Otherwise there is not much economic news for the start of the week. Investors will be watching for an update to the situation with the Suez Canal. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be released just after market open. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be updated after market close. There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. First employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. On Thursday, an OPEC meeting is scheduled which will impact outlook for oil supply/demand. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released. Additional Manufacturing data for March will indicate how the sector is recovering. The markets will be closed on Good Friday, but there will still be some economic data released. Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate will all show how strong the labor market is recovering. There are no daily update earnings reports for Monday. Lululemon (LULU), Chewy (CHWY), Carnival Corp (CCL), and HyreCar (HYRE) will report earnings on Tuesday. Walgreens (WBA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) report on Wednesday. CarMax (KMX) reports on Thursday. No earnings reports for Good Friday. Be sure to check your portfolio for upcoming earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Looking broadly across the market, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial average is near all-time highs. Despite the performance for the Nasdaq, broadly the markets are performing well. Investors continue to rotate into value stocks, away from growth stocks, but that was a necessary rebalancing. Soon the rebalance will be over and stocks can broadly advance together. Global investors are seeing safety and value in the US Dollar again, which helps to strengthen the bond market as well. That should keep yields and the yield curve under control at least for a while. The Fed will continue to buy up bonds to control the yield curve while not worrying up inflation. Rising consumer sentiment means record savings and new stimulus checks could be poured into the economy soon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The supply chain is strained from two big events this week and the higher spending expected in coming months could put more upward pressure on prices. Inflation could scare investors and cause more negative reactions in the bond and equity markets. The rising US Dollar is a signal of strength in the economy, but also could have impacts on multinationals that will cause further rotation and volatility. Add that rotation on top of the continuing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks. There is some discussion in the news of large margin calls linked to Archegos happening last week that may continue into next week. If so, there could be more downward pressure on the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq stayed in a channel drawn from the March 2020 bottom and is forming a symmetrical triangle that should breakout this week or next. It could breakout to the upside or downside. On the positive side, the level we still want to reach is 13,620.71, but there's a few levels to pass before that happens: The 21d EMA is at 13,239.15. We need to get above that line and stay above it. The 50d MA is at 13,426.43. The 50d started to trend lower this week, and we need it to trend higher. After the 50d MA, this past weeks high of 13,455.64 is the next goal. We need a higher high for next week. The next line is 13,620.71 which is the high from two weeks ago. But it is also past the area of resistance that the index was rejected on 1/26, 3/2, and 3/16. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, the index must stay above 12,985.05 which was a previous neck line on a head and shoulders: 13,000 has been an area of support on 1/29, 2/23, 3/3. The index broke below that support area this week, but was able to rise back above it before the end of the week. 12,985.05 is just below that support area and a key level that would mark bearishness. The index also breached that line this past week. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 12,924 for next week. The low of this past week is 12,786.81. Stay above that price to give us a higher low for this week. The next support area is 12,500-12,550. 12,397.05 is the current bottom of the recent correction on the Nasdaq. Let's not make a new bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It may not seem like it looking at growth stocks or small caps, but there was plenty of optimism in the market this past week. The optimism though was focused on the economic recovery and what sectors stocks will benefit the most over the coming months. Global investors are recognizing the strength of the US economic recovery and buying up the US dollar. As the balance of growth and value stocks starts to even out, we can expect some of that global investment to start to move into the 2020 winners again. Still there is no guarantee that what did well last year, will do well again this year. Find what is holding up well relative to their industry sectors and the indexes. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/26Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (16d), 3/22 (5d) and today 3/26 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 26, 2021 Facts: +1.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: +53% Good: Rally in afternoon to close near intraday high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with a long lower wick, very small upper wick Advance/Decline: More than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.66%), DJI (+1.39%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-4.80%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -1.09%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A late afternoon rally in the market closed the week with a positive day for all the major indexes. It's not clear what caused the sudden late afternoon rally. It could just be expiring options activity, or it could be investors outlook of the economy improving. Morning economic data was mixed, but the personal income numbers and consumer sentiment showed the possibility of an upcoming rise in spending. Data from UK and Germany was also positive on their economies. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.24% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% with a 53% green body over a long lower wick was enough to get a higher high on top of a higher low. The higher high and higher low with more volume than the previous day is a great indicator of strength. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied +1.66% to its all-time highest close. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was nearing all-time highs when it closed the day with a +1.39% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had its second day of gains, advancing 1.76%. The VIX volatility index declined -4.80%. The top sectors were Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%). Communications (XLC -1.09%) was the only sector to have losses for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.05%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined slightly while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced, as the price becomes more volatile due to the Suez Canal blockage. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio stayed nearly even at 0.753. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to neutral. The NAAIM Exposure index is back down to 57.52. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) declined for the day, losing -0.38% and closing below its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) both advanced but remain below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) took back both its 21d EMA and 50d MA as it advanced +1.78% for the day. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC) and Cisco (CSCO) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day, all advancing more than 4%. Tesla (TSLA), Comcast (CMCSA), Walt Disney (DIS) and Alphabet were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks had some winners and some losers. RH (RH) was at the top of the list with a +9.28% gain. ServiceNow (NOW), Dr Horton (DHI), JD.Com (JD) all had more than 4% gains. Still some growth stocks like GrowGeneration (GRWG), DraftKings (DKNG) did not rally on the day. UP Fintech (TIGR) dropped -11.93% after releasing earnings before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Next week will be a four-day trading week with markets closed on Good Friday. There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are also no notable earnings reports for the Daily Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index rallied back above the 13,000 support area in the last hour of trading. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +0.65% gain for Monday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -2.11% loss. The final hour rally was not enough to move the trend line built up the rest of the day. The five-day trend line points to a -2.91% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The rally late on Friday was a welcome site. It may have been options related or it may have been investors finally absorbing the positive economic news from US, UK and Germany. Either way, I want to see a follow through on Monday with higher volume. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/25Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (14d), 3/19 (5d) and today 3/25 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 25, 2021 Facts: +0.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: +60% Good: Closed near to intraday highs Bad: Lower low hit in the morning, resistance at 13,000 near close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with a slightly longer lower wick from morning dip Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (-6.56%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.68%) and Industrials (XLI +1.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Economic news seemed to weigh on the market after open, but investors shook off the weight later in the day to find gains across the major indexes. A short pullback to absorb the reaction from a weak 7y note auction was overcome to close near market intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.19% gain. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rebounded to the top of the index list with a +2.29% gain for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.62%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.56%. The top three sectors were Financials (XLF +1.68%), Industrials (XLI +1.60%) and Materials (XLB +1.45%). The bottom two sectors were Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) which were the only two to end the day with losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to climb with a +0.35% gain. The strengthening dollar may be weighing on big tech and other multinationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose for the day while the 2y treasury note yield declined. The rising yields were triggered by a weak auction for 7y notes. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined just slightly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined, despite the possibility of delays caused by the Suez Canal blockage. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.755. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved farther into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) declined with both trading below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) advanced but remained below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day even with yesterday's close, bouncing in between tests of the 21d EMA and 50d MA and closing under the 21d EMA. Bank of America (BAC), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Tesla (TSLA) and Home Depot (HD) were the top mega-caps. The top of the mega-cap list is focused on companies that are not impacted or maybe even benefit from a strengthening dollar. For example, companies relying on imports which become cheaper or companies that have most revenues sourced domestically. On the other hand, companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Nike (NKE) and Netflix (NFLX) have more dependency on foreign revenues and a stronger dollar can impact the value of repatriated revenues. The growth stock list is mixed with winners and losers. SUMO Logic (SUMO) was at the top with a +6.22% gain. Most of the growth stocks at the top of the list are upside reversals from recent sell-offs so bases have not yet been formed. DataDog (DDOG) continues to drop with a -3.69% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Watch for further impacts to the US Dollar from tomorrow's economic data. There are plenty of data points to be released. More insights into consumer sentiment and behaviors will be released tomorrow. Consumer price index data for February as well as consumer sentiment and consumer expectations for March will drive outlooks for inflation and the US dollar. On Friday, Up Fintech (TIGER) will release their earnings update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below the 13,000 area and tried to regain the support but fell short before close. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +2.74% gain for Friday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a +0.71% gain to rise just above the 13,000 support area. The five-day trend line points to a -0.51% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The indexes absorbed mixed news coming into the open of the market today. Jobless Claims were lower than expected which is a positive for the labor market. However, Core PCE Prices and GDP Sales data was weaker than expected. The 7-year auction mid-day was a concern as yields began to rise, but the index resumed the climb when it seemed bond selling was under control. The strengthening dollar is now getting some attention and you'll see that show up in valuations of companies that impacting positively or negatively by a stronger dollar. I have the expectation set for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. The Nasdaq did have a green day, but it's still a down trend with the lower high and lower low. Volume also needs to be higher on green days for more confidence. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - March 25Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a good day. -------------------------------------------------- ----- You should watch for any movement that deviates from 3008.91-3294.62. In particular, we have to see if we can get off the downtrend line. If you fall from 2961.97-3008.91, you can touch 2379.61, so you need to tread carefully. ------------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (32423.2-32470.9) rising and closed at -0.01%. -------------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (13227.7-13289.2) rising and closed at -2.01%. ----------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3910.5-3919.9) rising and closed at -0.55%. ----------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We need to see if we get support at 1727.175 and climb along the uptrend line. ------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) We have to see if we can get support and climb at the 60.25 point. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 3/24Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (13d), 3/18 (5d) and today 3/24 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 24, 2021 Facts: -2.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 99% Good: Nothing, even more nothing than yesterday Bad: No wicks, all red body, close below 13,000 support Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu Black candle, no visible upper or lower wick, all red body Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.55%), DJI (-0.01%), RUT (-2.35%), VIX (+4.43%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%) and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview In the endless rotations, the four cyclical sectors moved from the bottom to the top of the sector list in another session of selling for big tech, consumer discretionary and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -2.01% on higher volume. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing sector, declining another -2.35%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.55% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.01%. The VIX volatility index rose +4.43%. The cyclical sectors were back on top for the day with Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) performing best. Technology (XLK -1.21%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%), and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose another +0.26%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for another day. The spread between long term and short term narrowed. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for another day even as stock indexes dropped. Silver (SILVER) remained about flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) rebounded from its sharp decline. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.751. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved farther into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) lost -2.00%, Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.61%, Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.43% and Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.89%. Microsoft is the only of the four that is trading above its 21d EMA. ASML Holding (ASML) gained +3.53% as the top mega-cap for the day. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Mastercard (MA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) round out the top four. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.16%. Tesla (TSLA) also gave up significant ground with a -4.82% decline. Only one growth stock, Dr Horton (DHI), in the daily update list had a gain for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update on 2020 Q4 GDP numbers. Initial Jobless Claims will also be watched closely for trends in the labor market. There is a 7-Year Treasury Note auction scheduled for the afternoon. Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. For the daily update, there are no relevant earnings releases on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index fell just below the 13,000 area. Hopefully that will trigger some support and we can see gains in the coming days. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +3.80% gain for Thursday, which is back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a +1.80% gain, just below the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -1.38% loss and a dip further below the 13,000 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up In the most recent Market Week In Review, I marked 12,985.05 as a key level to stay above and unfortunately today, the index moved below that line. If you aren't already in defensive mode because of the multiple rotations over the past several weeks, now is a time to be in that mode. We can hope the index makes a turn from here and starts to rally, but there's no indication at this point that will happen. 12,783.40 is where the index would meet the lower side of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The next area to watch for is between 12,500 and 12,600. This would be a new neckline on a head and shoulders pattern that is deeper than the one we previously drew in the daily update. If that pattern played out, the base would be near 11,000. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
IXIC/QQQ Testing LimitsJust an update on my tracking of the IXIC/QQQ. Tested the downward trend line yesterday and failed. Showing a bit of weakness in the RSI, but a bull crossover in the Stoch, while the MACD is basically useless for now. Trading right around the mean on the BB. Doesn't seem like it knows what it wants to do yet. There's a potential for more downside while it trends further down where I believe it will retest the recent bottom at $300 on the Qs before bouncing back up or breaking down completely. Trade smart, we're not out of the woods yet.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by hobo4000
Daily Market Update for 3/23Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (13d), 3/17 (5d) and today 3/23 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 23, 2021 Facts: +1.12%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: -76% Good: Nothing Bad: Back below the 21d EMA with a thick red candle Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Ten declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.76%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-3.58%), VIX (+7.54%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (+0.41%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The character of the market continues to swing in opposite directions. Expectation was for Sideways or Higher for today, and we got lower. If we were keeping score, you'd notice the expectations I'm setting on a daily basis are broken very consistently over the past few weeks. But it's a good time to remind the reader that the expectations are not predictions, but they are to set and expectation, get our attention when the expectation is broken, and learn what might have changed in the market. Here we go. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.12% decline on higher volume. The candle has small upper and lower wicks, but is mostly red body. The closing range of 12% shows the day very much went to the bears. Few bulls came in to buy back the low prices. The selling was broad, across most sectors, segments and impacted all major indexes. There were 10 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.76% and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) declined -0.94%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took the worst beating with a -3.58% loss for the day. The VIX volatility index rose +7.52%. Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.42%) were the top sectors for the day. Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) was the only other sector with gains. These three sectors at the top mean investor nervousness. If investors can't exit equities, then they'll move to these defensive plays. The four cyclicals were at the bottom of the list with Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) being the worst two performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.65%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for another day. The spread between long term and short term narrowed. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. That's an interesting detail given the sell-off in equities. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for another day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) resumed a sharp decline from highs earlier this month. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also had sharp declines -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.659. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still near neutral, but moving toward fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) declined for the day. However, the other three all closed well below their intraday highs as the market dipped in the second half of the session. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.67% and is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.86% but hit resistance at its 50d MA and closed below the line. Alphabet (GOOGL) briefly traded above its 21d EMA, but ended just below the line with a +0.52% gain. Some mega-caps did much better for the day. Netflix (NFLX) gained +2.29% today. Proctor & Gamble (P&G), Adobe (ADBE) and Walmart (WMT) all closed the day with greater than 1% gains. The mega-cap list has about one advancing for every declining stock. Growth stocks had much smaller ratio of advancing vs declining. Peloton (PTON) and Zoom (ZM) were top advancers with almost 3.5% gains each. So we have Netflix, Peloton and Zoom as top advancing stocks of the day. It's morning where I live and I haven't checked the news yet (I usually check before the wrap-up), but I expect to find news about a resurgence of the pandemic. The market is obvious sometimes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic news will be released on Wednesday. Durable Goods Orders for February will give a heads-up on manufacturing activity. That will be measured against Manufacturing and Services purchasing data for March which can indicate some direction on increasing or decreasing activity in these sectors. Crude Oil Inventory data will also be released. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to continue testimony before congress on Wednesday. His statements are always watched closely for possible sentiment changes. There will be a 5y treasury note auction tomorrow which will be watched closely. Tencent (TCEHY), General Mills (GIS), RH (RH), KB Home (KBH), GrowGeneration (GRWG), and Guess (GES) are all reporting earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is back below the 21d EMA. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +2.27% gain for tomorrow, which is back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA, but under the 13,600 resistance area. The five-day trend line points to a 0.66% gain, right at the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -0.61% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Even as the end of the pandemic nears, it doesn't seem we can quite get past it. Europe lockdowns were extended at the same time the US questioned data from the AstraZeneca vaccine trial. Global investors reacted to the extended pandemic pressures by buying up US dollar and US treasuries, dropping yields that have been gaining in recent weeks. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoked to the House Financial Services Committee, expressing concerns for the economy but defending future tax increases. That put pressure on US equities, as investors looked to move to safe haven assets and defensive equity plays. Defensive plays moved to the top of the sector list while cyclicals moved to the bottom. The top pandemic stocks of Peloton (PTON), Zoom (ZM) and Netflix (NFLX) all popped again. The recovery stocks, including travel, leisure, airlines all suffered losses for the day. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 3/22Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (12d), 3/16 (5d) and today 3/22 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 22, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 56% Good: Zero lower wick, strong morning rally to above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above 50d MA, losing support late in the session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, green body under a long upper wick. Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.70%), DJI (+0.32%), RUT (-0.91%), VIX (-9.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.75%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Technology stocks showed up big for the first day of the week. The sector outperformed for the day, carrying most of the major indexes to close with positive gains for the day. The advances were not broadly shared, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.23% gain on significantly lower volume. The candle has no lower wick as the opening price level was never revisited after the morning rally. The 56% body sits under a long upper wick that formed during a sell-off just before close. The closing range of 60% includes a gap up at open and is positive, but does represent the weakness at close. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed with +0.70% and +0.32% gains, largely driven by big tech stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) started the day in the positive, but sold off in the morning as the Nasdaq was rallying. The RUT ended the day with a -0.91% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -9.88%, back to its lowest level since February 2020. Technology (XLK +1.75%) was the top performing sector of the day and the only sector to perform better than the broader S&P 500 index. Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) was the next best sector. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) performed the worst for the day. Energy continues to underperform after having one of its worst weeks in recent memory last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.09%. The US 30y bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for the day, helping drive the gains for big tech and growth stocks. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained for the day. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) was about even while Aluminum (ALI1!) continues advancing to its highest point since 2019. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.532. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps all had gains for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) led the way with +2.83% and 2.45% gains. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.18%. To put these gains into perspective though, consider a few things. All of them are on lower volume. Only Microsoft moved back above its 21d EMA line, while Apple attempted but found resistance. None of the gains were at a "breakout" level where the price moves past the high within a base. Overall mega-caps did well with ASML Holding (ASML) topping the list with a 5.22% gain. Baidu (BIDU), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC) round out the top four mega-caps. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), leading the Financials sector lower. Also at the bottom of the list was Toyota Motor (TM) which could have a big impact from a fire at Japanese auto chip manufacturer Renesas. Digital Turbine (APPS) led growth stocks with a big +10.31% gain. This gain was on higher volume and could be considered a breakout. Okta (OKTA), Chewy (CHWY) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) were other leading growth stocks. At the bottom of the growth stock list were three Chinese stocks. FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH) all lost more than 6%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, New Home Sales data will be released. Also, API Weekly Crude Oil stock will be revealed. Fed chairman Jerome Powell will begin testimony before congress where he's expected to applaud the stimulus bill and economic support programs as having a positive impact, but that we are not out of the woods yet for long term economic recovery. There will be a 2y treasury note auction tomorrow which will be watched closely. Adobe (ADBE) will release earnings on Tuesday. It probably doesn't make much difference for the stock price, but GameStop (GME) will also announce earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA today, but was unable to hold support above the 50d MA. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +1.47% gain for tomorrow, just under the 13,600 support area. The one-day trend line points to a +1.28% gain, and back above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a -1.39% loss, back below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a good to start the week with a gain for the Nasdaq. However, the gains were not broadly shared and were on less volume than has been average since the start of the year. Investors are still watching yields closely on treasury notes and bonds, adjusting valuations on sectors such as Technology, Communications and Financials. As they yields continue to be volatile, expect these sectors to also be volatile. Also watch for surprises from the testimony of Jerome Powell to congress. If pressed with questions, investors will be listening closely to his answers to understand the timing of future tapering of bond buying or interest rate hikes. So far, he has been firm and clear that nothing would change through 2023. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - March 23Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a good day. -------------------------------------------------- ----- You should watch for any movement that deviates from the box section 3008.91-3294.62. In particular, it remains to be seen if it can deviate from the downtrend lines (2) and (3). If you fall from 2961.97-3008.91, you can touch the 2734.40 point, so you need a Stop Loss to preserve profit or loss. We have to see if we can stockpile power by going sideways in the 3104.0-3176.40 section. --------------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (32628.0-32601.8) and closed at 0.32%. ------------------------------------ (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (13215.2-13278.8) rising and closed at 1.23%. --------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3913.1-3916.5) rising and closed at 0.70%. --------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We need to see if we get support at 1731.106 and climb along the uptrend line (3). If you don't get above 1753.992, you may fall towards 1623.813, so you need to trade carefully. ----------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from 60.25-65.03. If you fall at the 60.25 point, you can touch the downtrend line (1), so you need to trade carefully. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective. GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
IXIC Testing Resistance/Weekly IdeasIt looks like the IXIC might be making itself a new downward trend. Possible bearish flag after the initial selloff over the last few weeks. This week I will be looking for the IXIC to break up through the downward trend line and then the 13610 resistance line. If it fails the trend line, I think we will have more of a gradual downward trend, but if it fails 13610 and double tops, that could mean a large fast movement downward. This time it may drag the SPX/DIA down with it. On the downside we have some protection at 12610. Whether we do or don't test either resistance level, if it finds support here, this could indicate a strong bullish reversal. However I think that to be unlikely given the valuation of the market today and the necessity of a correction to maintain reasonable valuations in the tech sector. Unfortunately, the rest of the market will probably get caught in the crossfire. I am also watching the SPX for a probable normal dip along its trading trendline. Looking for some possible short plays there. Looking for a possible bear PCS on INTC this week as it tests previous resistance line for support in rising wedge pattern... Another possible bear PCS on AGI this week or early next as it shows a bearish flag in an overall downward trend while showing overbought on the Stoch. Will probably look for a MACD crossover before entering into the position. This will be especially effective if it tests and fails the downward trendline this or next week. Also looking for entry on a PCS for BK after failing $47 and a bearish crossover in the Stoch and one possibly forming on the MACD. Looking for a similar play on ED after possibly failing resistance for 3rd time while showing overbought in Stoch with a bearish crossover. Everything of course seems to be dependent on the TNX so keep an eye out for more panic selling with rising rates.
TVC:IXICShort
by hobo4000
4
Market Week In Review - 3/15/2021 - 3/19/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 15, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume higher, Closing range: 100%, Body: 73% Good: Close above last week's high and back above 50d MA Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, most green body over lower wick Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.65%), DJI (+0.53%), RUT (+0.31%), VIX (-3.19%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.34%) and Utilities (XLU +1.28%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -1.14%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher It was a relatively smooth start to the week as bond yields stayed fairly tame compared to previous weeks. That allowed the tech heavy Nasdaq to continue a rally to catch up with the other indexes. There is still more catchup to do as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial average and Russell 2000 set new all-time highs. After a brief test of the 21d EMA line, the Nasdaq rallied into close for a +1.05% gain on higher volume. The volume increased as the index moved up in the last 30 minutes of trading to end the day with a 100% closing range. The 73% green body is above a lower wick formed from some selling before noon. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 16, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 33%, Body: 23% Good: Higher high, higher low, successful test of 50d MA Bad: Low closing range, longer upper wick, could not hold morning rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body underneath a long upper wick Advance/Decline: Over three declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.16%), DJI (-0.39%), RUT (-1.72%), VIX (-1.20%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.05%) and Technology (XLK +0.75%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.42%) and Energy (XLE -2.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower An attempted rally in the morning sold off as investors reacted to disappointing economic data, both for February retails sales and industrial and manufacturing production. Gains were limited to fewer stocks and dominated by mega-caps. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain, but that was down from a 1.19% gain earlier in the day. After testing the 50d MA, the index bounced back up to close a bit below where it opened and leaving behind a 23% red body. The 33% closing range is not great, but the volume was lower than the previous day and lower than average. There were over three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 17, 2021 Facts: +0.40%, Volume higher, Closing range: 78%, Body: 58% Good: High closing range on slightly higher volume, support at 21d EMA Bad: Lower high, lower low, dipped below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body covers most of candle, similar upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.29%), DJI (+0.58%), RUT (+0.73%), VIX (-2.83%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.40%) and Industrials (XLI +1.15%) were top. Health (XLV -0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -1.63%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Investors got what they needed to hear from the fed's Jerome Powell. Interest rates will remain untouched and there will be no tapering of bond buying despite a big upgrade in the fed's outlook on the economy. The change in investor sentiment mid-day was clear as the indexes made a rally. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.4% gain after dipping below the 50d MA and 21d EMA in the morning. The dip came as yields soared and investors worried about what was to come from the Fed meeting. After rallying in the afternoon, the index closed on slightly higher volume with a 78% closing range. The short upper wick above a 58% green body was formed from a small pullback just before close. There were about equal number of advancing and declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 18, 2021 Facts: -3.02%, Volume higher, Closing range: 5%, Body: 82% Good: Nothing Bad: Broke below 50d MA and 21d EMA, selling most of the day Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body, with no visible lower wick Advance/Decline: Four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.48%), DJI (-0.46%), RUT (-2.94%), VIX (+12.22%) Sectors: Financials (XLY +0.52%) was the only sector with gains. Technology (XLK -2.77%) and Energy (XLE -4.49%) were the worst performing. Expectation: Lower Did the market wake up with a hangover? After the positive news from the Fed caused a rally late yesterday, the market took a turn downward today. It started again with a surge in bond yields that impact the valuation of big tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -3.02% in a painfully red session with only a 5% closing range. The 82% red body with no visible lower wick shows the selling throughout the day. A pause at the 21d EMA could not hold and the selling regained steam into close. There were 4 declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 19, 2021 Facts: +0.76%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 45% Good: Support at 13,000 to start morning rally Bad: Rally lost steam in afternoon, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body with lower wick slightly longer than upper wick Advance/Decline: One advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (-0.71%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-2.92%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.87%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.60%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.16%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways The markets ended another choppy week with one more rotation as investors continue to adjust against what's happening in the bond market. Yesterday's sale of bonds settled down and investors moved back into some growth stocks. But it was not a broad rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 ending the day with losses. The Nasdaq gained +0.76% on higher volume, but made a new low compared to the previous day and didn’t manage a new high. The closing range of 83% with a 45% green body is from a bullish intraday that testing the 13,000 area and then rallied into the afternoon. The upper wick formed from a tapering in prices after the morning rally stalled. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) This week was marked by a battle between the markets and the fed. Investors had to choose what to believe and how to respond. The week started with some nervousness on Monday morning with investors buying up defensive stocks in Utilities in the morning. By afternoon, that nervousness faded as treasury bond yields declined and confidence grew as the market rallied. Tuesday's disappointing retail sales for February didn't seem to have an impact in the morning. Yields were lower at market open, causing Technology and Communication Services stocks to rally. However, markets faded as yields rose throughout the day. By the end of the day, there were more decliners than advancers and the Nasdaq barely held onto a gain for the day. Wednesday was the pivotal day and could define how the market behave for the near term. The Federal Open Market Committee met to discuss the economic outlook and any changes to monetary policy. Jerome Powell spoke in early afternoon and was firm that interest rates would remain low through 2023 despite a better outlook on the economy for 2021. In addition, the Fed would continue to buy treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to keep borrowing costs down and investment in growth high. Powell's statement was just what the market wanted to here and stocks rallied into the close on Wednesday. Utilities sank to the bottom of the sector list while Consumer Discretionary and Industrials soared on the enthusiasm. The VIX volatility index dropped to its lowest level since February of 2020. The rally wouldn't last long though. Before the market opened on Thursday morning, treasury bonds sold off sharply and yields rose, bringing the yield curve to its steepest point since 2015. What was all the fuss about? Some of it could be uncertainty that remained in the bond market, maybe investors thinking Powell is underestimated or overestimated the economic rebound for 2021. Initial Jobless Claims were worse than expected, hinting toward more economic trouble New lockdowns in Europe not only hit Oil Prices and the Energy sector, but could make short and long term bonds less favorable. The underlying tone of the steep yield curve echoes the message from Jerome Powell. There is confidence in the shorter term economic recovery, keeping short term yields low. However, by the FOMC and Powell not seeing changes in monetary policy means they still are not confident about the longer term recovery. Investors are following Powell's caution about the longer term and therefore yields are rising faster on longer term bonds. Whatever the reasons, Thursday was marked with broad selling across every sector except Financials. The VIX soared 18% at its intraday high. Mega-caps, growth stocks, energy stocks, almost everything sold off for the day. The Nasdaq lost the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines again and rested just above the 13k area. Friday ended with gains for the Nasdaq, but was a triple-witching day where stock options, stock index futures , and stock index option contracts all expire on the same day. That makes it tough to discern what stocks were bought on high demand or in order to fulfill expiring contracts. Investors will have to wait until Monday to find out which way the market wants to move from here. The Nasdaq closed the week with a -0.79% decline on higher volume. The closing range of 30% shows the underlying weakness of Friday's short rally. It was good to have an upside reversal to close the week, but it wasn't enough to build confidence heading into next week. The Nasdaq did set a higher high and a higher low than the previous week. And the high was better than the high from two weeks ago. That's good news, but the mid-week rallies could not hold the highs for any of the indexes. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -2.77% for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended down -0.77% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.46%. The VIX volatility index closed the week with a +1.26 gain. The sectors were all over the place this week, all driven by nervousness about an overheating economy and how the fed might react. Monday started the week with the defensive sector Utilities ( XLU ) at the top. On Tuesday, Retail sales data for February showed the economy wasn't overheating and inflation may not be on the rise. That gave investors some confidence and despite bond yields rising, interest rate sensitive sectors such as Technology ( XLK ) and Communication Services ( XLC ) rose to the top. After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Jerome Powell acknowledge the increased outlook on the economy for 2021, but made a firm statement that interest rates would not be raised and bond purchasing programs would continue. You can clearly see the spike in Technology and Communications again after 2:00p on Wednesday. But then bond investors had their reaction on Thursday. As market open approached, bond investors sold heavily in the morning, sending yields on a surge again. Industrials ( XLI ) did well for most of the day but sold off before close. Only Financials ( XLF ) ended the day with a gain. Finally on Friday, bond yields climbed but at a smaller rate with the yield curve flattening a bit. That allowed several sectors to find some upside. Communication Services ended the week as the top sector. Energy ( XLE ) was the worst performing sector of the week as crude oil prices plummeted on less demand, losing over 7.5% and dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) with it. Keep in mind that treasury bond yields are still not extraordinarily high. The US 30y yield and US 10y yield are returning to 2019 and early 2020 levels. But the signal to read from the chart is the yield curve. You can see the US 2y yield has barely moved in relation to the longer term yields. That means investors are seeing less risk in the short term, but more risk in the longer term. The yield curve is at its steepest point since 2015. However, in 2015 it wasn't particularly steep. The concern though is that the trend is toward steepening, and that the only reason it hasn't accelerated further is because the fed is buying bonds to control the yield curve. If the bond buying stopped, it would cause even more volatility in both bonds and equities. The definition of "Taper Tantrum". High Yields Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices both declined for the week. The spread between corporate bonds and short term treasury bonds remain about the same. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.25% for the week and seems to be basing around the current support area. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for a second week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) declined sharply on fears of less demand. Timber (WOOD) declined, but still trading near all-time highs. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced, but both still showing upward trends. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps All four of the largest mega-caps declined for the week. On the weekly chart, I track against the 10 week and 40 week moving averages. Only Alphabet (GOOGL) is trading above both lines. Amazon (AMZN) is below both lines and the 10 week line is about to pass under the 40 week line. Microsoft (MSFT) moved below the 10 week line, but still trades above the 40 week line. Apple (AAPL) has been trading below the 10 week line, but above the 40 week line for the past several weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. This week, Exxon Mobil (XOM) pulled back almost 9% along with other energy stocks. Delta Airlines (DAL) also had losses for the week on fears that transportation may not rebound as quickly as previously thought. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Marriott (MAR) had gains but did not end the week with a bullish follow through. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.696. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is near to the neutral territory. The NAAIM exposure index moved up to 78.55. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Existing Home Sales data will be released on Monday right after market open. On Tuesday, New Home Sales data will be released. Also, API Weekly Crude Oil stock will be revealed. Several economic news will be released on Wednesday. Durable Goods Orders for February will give a heads-up on manufacturing activity. That will be measured against Manufacturing and Services purchasing data for March which can indicate some direction on increasing or decreasing activity in these sectors. Crude Oil Inventory data will also be released. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before congress on Wednesday. His statements are always watched closely for possible sentiment changes. Given the situation expect him to make very measured statements on economic outlook and reaffirm that monetary policy will not change. Thursday will bring an update on 2020 Q4 GDP numbers. Initial Jobless Claims will also be watch closely for trends in the labor market. On Friday, the most watched data will likely be the producer price index data that will show how much cost is going into produced goods. It's typically a good early indicator on inflation, but there is enough pressure on consumer prices right now that increased costs by producers doesn't necessarily translate to consumer price increases. Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) will release earnings on Monday. Adobe (ADBE) will release earnings on Tuesday. Let's not fool ourselves that it actually matters, but it's still interesting that GameStop (GME) will also announce earnings on Tuesday. Tencent (TCEHY), General Mills (GIS), RH (RH), KB Home (KBH), GrowGeneration (GRWG), and Guess (GES) are all reporting earnings on Wednesday. For the daily/weekly update, there are no interesting earnings releases on Thursday. On Friday, Up Fintech (TIGER) will release their earnings update. Be sure to check your portfolio for upcoming earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Don't fight the fed! Jerome Powell could not have been clearer that interest rates will remain low and that bond buying programs will continue, even as the FOMC increased their outlook for the economy in 2021. Ultimately that will be good news for American individuals and companies that want to borrow money. There is rotation from high growth stocks that were performing well in 2020 to cyclical and recovery stocks that are expected to do well in 2021. But overall money continues to pour into US equity markets from both domestic and foreign investors. In order to buy US equities, foreign investors must first by the US Dollar which is now starting to strengthen compared to other currencies. That will attract investors back to US Dollar based instruments, including bonds as a safe haven, stabilizing yields. US consumers will soon have stimulus checks and will start to spend no only the checks, but a record amount of savings build up during the pandemic. That will be a boon for everything from retail to leisure and travel. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The economic recovery is looking great, but it may be better than what Jerome Powell and the FOMC is predicting. As consumers start to spend and the demand for goods and services gets ahead of the capacity and materials, that will drive up prices. That would accelerate inflation to a level that requires a response from the Fed. Any change in monetary policy will certainly be met with a reaction by the market. That may be months away, but the market is always ahead of the reality. Treasury bond yield volatility is scaring investors. As long as yields can spike at any moment, investors will be fickle and rotations will continue to wreak havoc on equities. The volatility in both bonds and equities will have global investors looking elsewhere to find more stable and predictable returns. Growth stocks outpaced value stocks at a historical rate in 2020. Value stocks have been catching up this year, but there is still some catch up and maybe correction before this rotation is done. b -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq is at a decision point right now with two key levels to watch for on the bullish and bearish side. On the positive side, the level we want to reach is 13,620.71, but there's a few levels to pass before that happens: The 21d EMA is at 13,309.62. We need to get above that line and stay above it. The 50d MA is at 13,422.90. That's the next line to get above, stay above and eventually get the 21d EMA back above the 50d MA to signal the positive trend. After the 50d MA, the next line is 13,620.71 which is this past week's high. But it is also past the area of resistance that the index was rejected on 1/26, 3/2, and 3/16. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, the index must stay above 12,985.05 which was a previous neck line on a head and shoulders: 13,000 has been an area of support on 1/29, 2/23, 3/3. 12,985.05 is just below that support area and a key level that would mark bearishness. The next support area is 12,500-12,550. 12,397.05 is the current bottom of the recent correction on the Nasdaq. Let's not make a new bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's tough to tell at times whether the market is correcting or rotating. Certainly, it has been a difficult several weeks for the Nasdaq as big tech and growth stocks that heavily trade on the index have not done well. But there are many reasons to believe in underlying support in US equities, but the focus is shifting among sectors and growth vs value. The best thing to do at these times is study the stocks in your portfolio and watchlist. Because of the choppiness the last few weeks, you can learn a lot about what other investors, especially institutional investors, believe about your picks. Look for strength against the indexes and against their sector. Pay close attention to volume on up days and down days. Is there more volume during selling or buying? How are they performing on the weekly chart vs the daily chart? Are they holding above key moving average lines (21d EMA, 50d MA, 200d MA, etc)? Not only will that help you discover where your own investment focus should be, but it will help you identify whether the broader market is bearish or bullish, instead of worrying too much about the swings in the major indexes. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 3/19Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (11d), 3/15 (5d) and today 3/19 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 19, 2021 Facts: +0.76%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 45% Good: Support at 13,000 to start morning rally Bad: Rally lost steam in afternoon, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body with lower wick slightly longer than upper wick Advance/Decline: One advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (-0.71%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-2.92%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.87%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.60%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.16%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets ended another choppy week with one more rotation as investors continue to adjust against what's happening in the bond market. Yesterday's sale of bonds settled down and investors moved back into some growth stocks. But it was not a broad rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 ending the day with losses. The Nasdaq gained +0.76% on higher volume, but made a new low compared to the previous day and didn’t manage a new high. The closing range of 83% with a 45% green body is from a bullish intraday that testing the 13,000 area and then rallied into the afternoon. The upper wick formed from a tapering in prices after the morning rally stalled. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the best performing index of the day with a +0.88% gain. That was not nearly enough to recover from yesterday's selling. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.06% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) lost -0.71%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.92%. Communications (XLC +0.87%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.60%) were top sectors. Technology (XLK) lost -0.30% which is a surprise considering the tech heavy Nasdaq had gains. Financials (XLF -1.16%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.33%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.06%. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined while the 10y and 2y treasury bond yields remained about even. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both gained for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) was about even. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) was about even while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.696. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back to neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation. The majority of mega-caps did well for the day and growth stocks had a much better day than yesterday. I'll return to more specific updates on market leaders next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Existing Homes Sales data will be released on Monday just after market open. Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) will release earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index remains below the 21d EMA and 50d MA, but tested and found support at the 13,000 area. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +2.55% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.47%. The five-day trend line points to a +2.20% gain. The trend line from the 2/16 all-time high was removed last week, but the index has returned to the midpoint of that channel. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice upside reversal from yesterday's selling, but there still seems to be some weakness behind the move. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial both had declines. The Technology sector also declined, despite the Nasdaq having a gain. Homework for the weekend should be to look at the stocks in your portfolio and watchlist. Because of the choppiness the last few weeks, you can learn a lot about what other investors, especially institutional investors, believe about your picks. Look for strength against the indexes and against their sector. Pay close attention to volume on up days and down days. Is there more volume during selling or buying? How are they performing on the weekly chart vs the daily chart? Are they holding above key moving average lines (21d EMA, 50d MA, 200d MA, etc)? Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/18Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (10d), 3/12 (5d) and today 3/18 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 18, 2021 Facts: -3.02%, Volume higher, Closing range: 5%, Body: 82% Good: Nothing Bad: Broke below 50d MA and 21d EMA, selling most of the day Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body, with no visible lower wick Advance/Decline: Four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.48%), DJI (-0.46%), RUT (-2.94%), VIX (+12.22%) Sectors: Financials (XLY +0.52%) was the only sector with gains. Technology (XLK -2.77%) and Energy (XLE -4.49%) were the worst performing. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Did the market wake up with a hangover? After the positive news from the Fed caused a rally late yesterday, the market took a turn downward today. It started again with a surge in bond yields that impact the valuation of big tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -3.02% in a painfully red session with only a 5% closing range. The 82% red body with no visible lower wick shows the selling throughout the day. A pause at the 21d EMA could not hold and the selling regained steam into close. There were 4 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was holding onto positive gains, even setting a new all-time high before selling off in the late afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial closed down -0.46%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.48%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) Declined -2.94%. The VIX volatility index gained +12.22%. Only Financials (XLF +0.52%) closed the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.45%) and Technology (XLK - 2.77%) were hard hit among the sectors. The worst performing sector was Energy (XLE -4.49%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained -0.42%. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all gained for the day with the spread between long term and short term widening again. The US 30y yield is at its highest point since June 2019 while the 10y is at its highest point since January 2020. The yield curve is at its steepest since 2015. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both declined for the day. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds widened a bit. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined for another day. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined as well. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.627. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back to neutral. The NAAIM exposure index is at 78.55 as of the close on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation. All four of the largest mega-caps closed below their 21d EMA. Only Alphabet (GOOGL) remains above its 50d MA. A handful of mega-caps had gains for the day, including large financials Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM). However most mega-caps lost for the day. Only one of the growth stocks tracked by the daily update had a gain for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no notable economic news scheduled for tomorrow, however it is a triple witching day. A triple witching day happens once a quarter when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index option contracts all expire on the same day. It can cause extra trading volume and volatility in the last hour of trading as investors close or roll-out expiring contracts. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dropped below both the 50d MA and 21d EMA today and closed above the 13,000 support area. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +3.74% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a +2.20% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.92%. The trend line from the 2/16 all-time high was removed last week, but the index has returned to the midpoint of that channel. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was not the day we expected, but the bond sellers had their way. There will be more volatility in bonds throughout this year as the economic recovery of many countries, not just the US, begins to impact their currency and treasury performance. The volatility to treasury bonds will likewise be felt with growth and big tech companies that benefit from cheap financing to fund growth. It will be a wild ride this year. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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