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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD - November 24Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- It remains to be seen if the short-term downtrend could end. To do that, we have to get support at 3104.0 and see if it rises. If you drop from 3104.0, you can touch 3008.91. ---------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (29263.5-29332.8) rising and closed at 1.12%. ----------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (11855.0-11916.8) rising and closed at 0.22%. ---------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3557.5-3566.8) rising and closed at 0.56%. --------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) It fell from the 1855.5 point. We need to see if we can get support at the uptrend line (4) and at 1803.382. If there is no support at 1803.382, the next support range is 1731.106-1753.992. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 11/23Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (31d), 10/30 bottom (17d), 11/17 (5d), and today 11/23 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 23, 2020 Now take it in but don't look down Facts: +0.22% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 55%, Body: 24% Good: Body and close in upper half of range Bad: Lower low after morning high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Body and close in upper half Advance/Decline: 1.39, more advancing than declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +7.07%) was the top. Health (XLV -0.26%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.32%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq continued its march sideways on Monday as the other indexes had gains and the Russell 2000 closed at another all-time high. Investors remain focused on small caps, energy, and industrials as a more positive outlook on the economy is supported by additional vaccine news to end the pandemic. The Nasdaq index closed up +0.22%, but still below 12,000, a resistance level it has been testing for over a week. Volume was just slightly lower than Friday. The outside day candlestick has a 24% negative body in the upper half of the range and a closing range of 55%. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks as small caps in the index had gains while the larger caps weighed the index down. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The Russell 2000 (RUT +1.85%) soared again to close at all-time highs. In the past week it surpassed the Nasdaq to be the index with the highest gains since March lows. This is the small-cap rally. The S&P 500 (SPX +0.56%) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +1.12%) also outperformed the Nasdaq today. Energy (XLE +7.07%) is back as the leading sector kicking off the week with a massive gain from news that the amount of Thanksgiving travel exceeded expectations. Utilities (XLU +0.02%) which seemed to be getting more attention late last week, faded back to underperformance. Health (XLV -0.26%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.32%) were the worst performing sectors of the day. The VIX volatility index decreased by -4.39%, a good sign to start what could be a bullish week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US 30-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields rose, and spreads widened for the day as investors moved money back to equities. Corporate Bond yields fell for the day. Another sign investors are positive on US companies ability to survive, if not recover from the pandemic economy. The US dollar (DXY +0.17%) strengthened for the day. Silver (SILVER -2.25%) and Gold (GOLD -1.71%) continued to slide after last weeks declines. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1! +2.11%) gained for the day. Timber (WOOD +0.96%) also ended the day with gains. The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.546, still a low number that will hopefully rise and show a bit more caution by investors. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. 0.7 is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a reversal in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL -2.97%) ended a very bearish day closing underneath its 21d EMA and 50d MA, key moving average lines. Microsoft (MSFT -0.13%) and Amazon (AMZN -0.03%) closed with minor losses and are trading below the two moving average lines. Google (GOOG -0.42%) also had losses but closed above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. All four of the mega-caps underperformed the market. It was not all bad for mega-caps with just over half closing with gains. Tesla (TSLA +6.58%) continued to gain in anticipation of being added to the S&P 500. Walt Disney (DIS +3.48%) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +2.94%) were among the top mega-cap performers. Growth stocks generally had a good day. NIO Inc (NIO +12.45%) made a new all-time high. Square (SQ +6.03%) and PayPal (PYPL +4.23%) rose on optimism for a strong season for retail. RIOT (RIOT +20.60%) made another huge advance. Zoom Video (ZM -2.12%) fell back and continues to trade up and down with pandemic news. NIU Tech (Niu -9.10%) sold off on disappointing earnings news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow, Consumer Confidence numbers will be released. Forecast is a slight decrease. A surprise here could further drive gains in retail stocks that have done well after a strong earnings week. Technology companies Dell Technologies (DELL +1.52%), HP Inc. (HPQ +3.62%), Autodesk (ADSK +0.93%) and VMWare (VMW +-/77%) will announce earnings. Also on Tuesday, several Retailers including Gap Inc (GPS +6.93%), Dollar Tree (DLTR +2.78%), Best Buy (BBY +2.43%) and Burlington Stores (BBY +2.43%) will release earnings updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index remains below the 10/12 pivot high and the 12,000 November resistance area. A +2.19% would get it past that area and to new all-time highs. That would rejoin the trend line from the 10/30 bottom. The five-day and one-day line have been pointing sideways for most of the past week’s daily updates. They now point to a +0.05% gain. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -1.00%. If the index can close above the 10/12 pivot day high, then I’d remove this trend line moving forward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a good start to the week, despite the Nasdaq index and QQQ ETF being weighed down by underperformance of the largest mega-caps. The theme for this rally is clearly in small-caps and recovering sectors such as Energy, Transportation and Travel. Retail also has the momentum as the holiday season approaches. Consumer Confidence could add more momentum or put a damper on the rally. Still, there are lots of great stocks and setups to pick from. Happy trading and have a great week! Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week In Review - 11/16/2020 - 11/20/2020The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a larger view on the past week What's coming in the next week Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 16, 2020 Take my hand We're off to never never-land Facts: +0.80% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 63% Good: Recovered from mid-day dip to finish near highs Bad: Not much, solid day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body, tiny upper wick. Advance/Decline: 2.39, almost 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +6.58%) and Energy (XLE +6.58%) at the top (yes, I counted it twice). Health (XLV -0.19) is the only sector with a loss. Expectation: Higher The Nasdaq started the week off with a decent gain that showed a positive reaction to comments from the November FOMC meeting. FOMC committee members Daly and Clarida made public comments around 14:00pm that monetary policy, including quantitative easing and interest rates, would remain the same while watching the economy closely. Investors responded positively to the remarks as the indexes pivoted back toward highs of the day. The Nasdaq ended up +0.80% for the day with a 63% green body and an 89% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is mostly body with a lower wick formed from opening levels and a short upper wick from closing near the daily highs. The index closed just under the 10/12 pivot high, a key line to watch for resistance later this week on the way to a new all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 17, 2020 When I’m without it The more that I want it Facts: -0.21% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 48%, Body: 14% Good: Higher high, Higher low trend continues Bad: Resistance, Could not break into 12,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecision candle with open and close in a tight range Advance/Decline: 1.09, just slightly more advancing stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.02%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.05% at the top. Utilities (XLU -1.96%) is the worst performing. Expectation: Sideways Today the Nasdaq had a lot of back and forth but within a tight trading range. After shaking off lower than expected retail sales growth, the index grew to a higher high than the previous day. But later in the day sold off perhaps due to dire economic outlooks from FOMC members and the Fed’s Jerome Powell. At the end of the day, the index closed at a -0.21% loss with a small 14% red body and a closing range of 48%. Even though volume was lower than the previous day, its higher than the recent average and shows the undecided outcome between bulls and bears for the day. The index was unable to approach the 10/12 pivot-day high and resistance point, something that needs to happen to keep the rally alive. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 18, 2020 I'm only happy when it rains Pour your misery down Facts: -0.82% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 1%, Body: 66% Good: Nothing Bad: Character change, break from trend Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: No lower wick, long red body Advance/Decline: 0.63, 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock Sectors: Industrials (XLI -0.45%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) were best performing. Energy (XLE -2.91%) and Utilities (XLU -1.96%) were worst performing. Expectation: Lower The market ended today with a character change, raising questions about where it may go in the near term. The competing optimism and pessimism with the pandemic and economy led to a day and a half of indecision which finally turned to a downside move at the end of Wednesday. The character change is noted and will follow closely over the next few days. The index closed with a -0.82% loss on higher volume. The candle has a red body of 66% and a closing range of 1%, leaving no bottom wick. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks on the index. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 19, 2020 'Cause I try and I try and I try and I try Facts: +0.87% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 95%, Body: 83% Good: Bullish all day, close at top of range Bad: Did not beat yesterday’s high Highs/Lows: Lower low, lower high Candle: Very tiny wicks, thick green bullish day Advance/Decline: 1.86, almost 2 advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.81%) were top performing. Utilities (XLU -1.00%) was worst performing. Expectation: Sideways or Higher After yesterday’s late afternoon change in character, the market reversed back to the behavior from the previous several days: modest gains, focus small-caps, energy as the leading sector and rising breadth across advancing stocks. The only thing that did not occur is a higher high and higher low, something to look for on Friday. The Nasdaq closed Thursday with a +0.87% gain and a 95% closing range. The 83% green body and +12.7% increase in volume represented the very bullish day after a small dip at market open. There were just under 2 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 20, 2020 We may lose, and we may win Though we will never be here again Facts: -0.42% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 3%, Body: 45% Good: Higher high, Higher low Bad: Sold in afternoon, close at the day’s lows Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Body in lower half of candle Advance/Decline: 1.10, about even advancing and declining stocks Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.02%) was the only gaining sector. Technology (XLK -1.03%) was the worst performing. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market showed signs of nervous investors today likely from a disagreement between the Treasury Department and the Fed. That nervousness turned into a sell-off in the afternoon that ended with the index at its daily lows. We did get the higher high and higher low that I hoped for in yesterday’s update. There were also bright spots among some growth stocks with just over half of stocks in the Nasdaq ending the day with gains. Otherwise, it was a disappointing end to a very sideways week which closed almost exactly where it opened. The index ended today with a -0.42% loss on slightly higher volume than yesterday. The closing range of 3% and the 45% body in the lower half of the candle show the gains in the morning were lost in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week ended almost exactly where it started. A weekly doji candlestick representing a trading range of about 1.5% shows how tightly the market traded to complete an inside week and close within the 0.55% range of the last three weekly closes. Even as the other indices made new highs, the Nasdaq could not find its way above 12,000 which is now an area of resistance. The index closed with just a +0.22% gain, a 50% closing range, and a thin 4.2% green body. Weekly volume was at its highest since June. At the start of the week, investors shrugged off any bad news, encouraged by updates on vaccines, positive Retail earnings results, and the continuing Fed monetary policy of low interest rates and quantitive easing. That sentiment started to change late on Tuesday after negative outlooks shared by the FOMC and the Fed’s Jerome Powell. Tuesday’s candlestick showed indecision. The decision for the market was apparent on Wednesday with a sharp sell-off late in the day and several signals of a character change. But then a positive expectation breaker came on Thursday even amidst worsening employment data. It did not last long. Friday took a turn for the worse in the afternoon with nervous investors reducing positions and selling into the close. Energy (XLE) was the big winner of the week for the second week in a row. Additional positive vaccine news signaled the possibility of several sectors recovering and driving demand for oil and gas. Although ending the week with the most gains, it did briefly pullback on Wednesday as the market started to shift. After a poor performance last week, the Technology (XLK) sector tracked closely to the performance of the S&P 500 index. Utilities (XLU) performed the worst this week, although it was the best performing sector during Friday trading. Health Care (XLV) also did not have a great week, spending much of the week as the worst sector until the honor was passed to Utilities. US Treasury Bond Yields were down for the week as investors bought the safe haven instruments. US30Y-US10Y and US10Y-US02Y spreads both tightened. Although some movement to bonds is clear, it is not yet significant to cause concern and prices are still in a downward trend. Corporate bond yields also declined for the week (prices go up, yields go down). However, the spread between treasury bonds and corporate bonds widened showing investors prefer the corporate bonds and trust companies can weather economic pressures. If the opposite were true, you’d see more selling of corporate bonds and prices going down. The put/call ratio ended the week at an alarming level of 0.535. A contrarian indicator, a put/call ratio below 0.7 signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. The U.S. Dollar weakened for the week but is still above a support level which has held since summer. A weaker dollar could help global companies and will eventually lead to inflation which the Fed wants to see as a healthy economic indicator. However, it is not likely foreign banks will allow their currencies to appreciate as the dollar weakens and would counter with their own QE adjustments. It is something to keep an eye on as the pandemic continues its global economic impact. Silver was down for the week. Gold was flat. Crude Oil is closing in on new highs since the March crash. The other commodities have seen huge gains in prices over that last several weeks. The WOOD ETF is up 70% from March lows. Except for Google, the four big mega-caps are trending down with lower highs and lower lows. Much of the focus the last two weeks has gone to small-cap stocks and at times rotating back into pandemic growth stocks. Google and Apple ended the week above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. But Microsoft and Amazon closed below the two key indicator lines. All of them underperformed the Nasdaq index for the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The biggest bullish support for the market right now is the continuation of quantitive easing from the Fed. Keeping interest rates low, holding bond yields down while also making asset purchases provides a tremendous amount of support to the equity markets. Those low interest rates are also supporting higher than expected Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. Low interest rates reduce costs for existing corporate debt are driving record activity among businesses to borrow either for survival or for acquisitions of other companies. Although the index could not surpass 12,000, it held up above the 11,700 area and traded within a tight range. The last three weeks closed within a 0.55% range creating a bullish three-weeks tight pattern with increasing volume. It shows to me that investors are in a wait-and-see pattern. There is not a balanced amount of selling and buying. Any sell-offs have been bought back as investors “buy the dip”, shift positions for future growth, and wait for a turn in economic news, release of the vaccines or closure to the elections. I have talked in the past that Energy (XLE) very often leads the sectors out of a significant correction. You can go back and compare sector performance during major corrections and see that at least for a few weeks, Energy leads. And it makes sense for this economy that Energy will lead back to health given the number of sectors that depend on Oil and Gas as they recover. Energy has led the sectors for the past two weeks. It took a significant hit Wednesday on investor fear. However, it is still back in the lead. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side On the bearish side, the disagreement between the Treasury and the Fed was a surprise on Thursday as the Treasury said several emergency lending programs would be allowed to expire at the end of the year. Although the programs have gone under-utilized it was a safety net for companies which gave confidence to investors. But it was also the Treasury and Fed working together to support the economic recovery. If they start to disagree as we wait for a new administration, this could be a big risk for the short-term. Another bearish surprise for this week was the Initial Jobless Claims which rose for the first time since September. Companies are reducing staff again, preparing for what could be an extended lockdown during the holidays. Its unknown what impact the lockdowns will have on Retail sales. So far, retailers (even brick-and-mortar retailers) have seemed to weather the pandemic well. At the end of this week, investors stayed in equities but moved back to the safe-haven Utilities (XLU) sector. There was also a resurgence in prices for pandemic growth stocks – businesses that thrived during the first lockdowns. The combination means investors could be anticipating more downside for the overall market in the coming weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Next week is Thanksgiving which means we will be light on economic news and earnings reports, but there are still some significant ones to watch. The market will be closed on Thursday and will close early at 1pm on Friday. Probably the most important economic numbers will be Consumer Confidence released on Tuesday and more employment data on Wednesday. Core Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday will give a heads up on manufacturing activity. Several Chinese companies will release earnings before market open on Monday. Electric scooter manufacturer Niu (NIU) and smartwatch maker Huami (HMI). On Tuesday, technology companies such as Dell Technologies (DELL), HP Inc. (HP), Autodesk (ADSK) and VMWare (VMW) will announce earnings. Also on Tuesday, several Retailers including Gap Inc (GPS), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Best Buy (BBY) and Burlington Stores (BBY) will announce earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: 11965.54 is the 10/12 pivot day high and currently putting resistance on the index. We hoped for a pass over this line this past week and will continue to look for it as the first test for next week. Passing 12108.87 is the new all-time high. The index was only there briefly on Monday before selling-off. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise red flags, many similar to what we watched for last week: Thursday’s low of 11,760.98 is the bottom of the tight trading channel for this past week. The 21d EMA is at 11663.02. We could see a test of this line before moving hire. Going below it would be a signal of weakness. The low on 11/10 of 11,424.61. Dropping this low would start to test October support. The low of Thursday, Nov 4 is at 11,394.21. There is a gap to fill below that line. October Support line is at 11,400 and just above the 50d MA of 11,387.61. September Support line is at 11,300. The next area to watch is the July support area at 10,600. Approaching that area would be a significant pullback of 10% and certainly put the market back into correction status. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you look back to the beginning of November, the market had several days in a row of significant gains and gap up opens to reach a new all-time high. Those accelerated gains on top of the rotations that occurred in the past two weeks require some pause for the index which is exactly what we got this past week. The uncertainty around the election and transition period for a new administration are putting oil on the fire of more pandemic lockdowns and higher unemployment. Expect more swings in prices and rotations as investors try to decide what sectors will benefit and what sectors will suffer from news. Typically, there will be an initial overreaction and money will rotate back to stocks and investments that are steadily doing well. The more important thing to watch for is a breakdown in support. If more setups are failing and more stop losses kicking in, then its time to reduce exposure and raise cash. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe! Happy Thanksgiving!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD - November 21Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- Closed below 3104.0. If it doesn't rise above 3104.0 points quickly, it is expected to touch 3008.91 points in the end. Accordingly, careful trading is necessary. In order to turn into an uptrend, it must rise above the 3176.40 point. -------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (29483.2-29437.6) falling and closed at -0.75%. We have to touch the 28989.7 point and see if we can rebound. ----------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) The gap (11904.7-11892.7) started lower and closed at -0.42%. We need to see if it can rise along the uptrend line (2). ---------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (3581.9-3579.3) and closed at -0.68%. It remains to be seen if it will touch the uptrend line (3). -------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) You should watch for any movement that deviates from 1855.5-1871.828. If it rises above the 1899.330 point, it is expected to attempt to break above the downtrend line. A decline from 1855.5 is expected to hit the uptrend line (4) or 1803.382. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closed price G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 11/20Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (30d), 10/30 bottom (16d), 11/16 (5d), and today 11/20 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I am including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 20, 2020 We may lose, and we may win Though we will never be here again Facts: -0.42% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 3%, Body: 45% Good: Higher high, Higher low Bad: Sold in afternoon, close at the day’s lows Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Body in lower half of candle Advance/Decline: 1.10, about even advancing and declining stocks Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.02%) was the only gaining sector. Technology (XLK -1.03%) was the worst performing. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market showed signs of nervous investors today likely from a disagreement between the Treasury Department and the Fed. That nervousness turned into a sell-off in the afternoon that ended with the index at its daily lows. We did get the higher high and higher low that I hoped for in yesterday’s update. There were also bright spots among some growth stocks with just over half of stocks in the Nasdaq ending the day with gains. Otherwise, it was a disappointing end to a very sideways week which closed almost exactly where it opened. The index ended today with a -0.42% loss on slightly higher volume than yesterday. The closing range of 3% and the 45% body in the lower half of the candle show the gains in the morning were lost in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The Russell 2000 (RUT +0.07%) was the only index to end the day and the week with gains. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.68%) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.75%) both sold off throughout the day closing at lows. The leading sector of the day was Utilities (XLU +0.02%) which is has recently been the sector that leads when investors get nervous. Communications (XLC -0.23%) and Technology (XLK -1.03%) were leading in the morning before pulling back in the afternoon. Technology dropped sharply in the last hour of trading to end the day as the worst performing sector. The VIX volatility index increased by +2.55%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US 30-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields decreased for the day as investors moved moderately into the safe haven. The spreads tightened for an additional day. The corporate bond to treasure bond spreads remained about the same. The US dollar (DXY +0.11%) was up slightly for the day. Silver (SILVER -+0.51%) was up for the day while Gold (GOLD -0.07%) was just slightly down. Timber (WOOD -0.07%) fell just slightly. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL1! +1.66%) regained recent highs. Adding the Put/Call ratio to the daily indicators. It dropped to 0.535. A contrarian indictor that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. 0.7 is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a reversal in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps ended the day with losses. Apple (AAPL -1.1%) and Google (GOOG -1.23%) closed above their key moving average lines. Microsoft (MSFT -0.96%) closed below its 50d MA line. Amazon (AMZN -0.57%) is still trading below both indicators. All four underperformed the index for the day. Most other mega-caps closed with losses. Alibaba (BABA +4.17%), Paypal (PYPL +0.93%), Netflix (NFLX +0.74%) were a few notable outperforming mega-caps. Foot Locker (FL -4.96%) released earnings that beat expectations before market open. It opened with gains in the morning but sold off to end the day with a loss. It was a pretty good day for growth stocks, especially stocks that have done well during the pandemic. Fiverr (FVRR +6.99%), Zoom Video (ZM +6.11%) and Peloton (PTON +5.36%) are a few examples of stocks with big gains today. Workday (WDAY -9.27%) sold off after releasing earnings that beat expectations, but warning about impact from the pandemic on future business. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Purchasing Managers Index data will be released on Monday, signaling expansion or contraction for Manufacturing and Services sectors. Daqo New Energy (DQ +4.07%), Twist Bioscience (TWST +0.93%), NIU Tech (NIU -0.45%) will kick off a light earnings week with release before market open on Monday. Agilent (A +2.03%) and Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR -0.17%) will report after close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still could not pass the 10/12 pivot high that has been resistance for most of the past two weeks. The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is pointing to a +2.52% gain. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a +0.32%. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -0.99%. If the index can close above the 10/12 pivot day high, then I’d remove this trend line moving forward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq closed the week right where it opened with the trading range contained to 1.6% and an inside week relative to the previous week. With mixed signals coming from economic news as well as a disagreement between the Treasury and the Fed, it’s no surprise investors protected portfolios heading into the weekend. Time to get some rest before the not-so-restful holidays next week. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD, XAUUSD - November 20Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- You should watch for any movement that deviates from the 3104.0-2176.40 section. If you climb above the 3176.40 point and get support, you'll have a chance to move up. If you drop from 3104.0, you can touch 3008.91. ------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (29438.4-29370.9) falling and closed at -1.16%. ------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (11801.6-11779.0) and closed at 0.87%. We need to see if it can rise along the uptrend line (2). -------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (3567.8-3559.4) and closed at 0.39%. ----------------------------- (GOLD 1D chart) It started with the gap (24.46-24.17) falling and closed at -1.14%. If I fall along the downtrend line (7), I think it could rebound and do more than 24.37 points. If it falls below the downtrend line (7), it is expected to touch the 22.35 point. --------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We have to see if we can get off the 1855.50-1871.828 range. If you fall below the 1855.50 point, you can touch the uptrend line (4) and the 1803.382 point, so you need to trade carefully. If you climb above 1871.828 and gain support, there is a chance that you will climb above 1899.330. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they are not trading 24 hours a day. G1: Closed price G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
Daily Market Update for 11/19Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (29d), 10/30 bottom (15d), 11/13 (5d), and today 11/19 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I am including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 19, 2020 'Cause I try and I try and I try and I try Facts: +0.87% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 95%, Body: 83% Good: Bullish all day, close at top of range Bad: Did not beat yesterday’s high Highs/Lows: Lower low, lower high Candle: Very tiny wicks, thick green bullish day Advance/Decline: 1.86, almost 2 advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.81%) were top performing. Utilities (XLU -1.00%) was worst performing. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After yesterday’s late afternoon change in character, the market reversed back to the behavior from the previous several days: modest gains, small-caps, energy as the leading sector and rising breadth across advancing stocks. The only thing that did not occur is a higher high and higher low, something to look for on Friday. The Nasdaq closed Thursday with a +0.87% gain and a 95% closing range. The 83% green body and +12.7% increase in volume represented the very bullish day after a small dip at market open. There were just under 2 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors All the indices closed with gains while the Nasdaq led the day. The S&P 500 (SPX +0.39%), Dow Jones Industrial average (+0.15%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.84%) recovered some of yesterday’s losses. None of them made it back to yesterday’s highs. The RUT, just slightly behind the Nasdaq, showed energy in small-cap stocks again. The leading sector of the day was Energy (XLE +1.64%). After dipping below the market performance in the morning, it was bought back in the afternoon to finish ahead of the other sectors. Technology (XLK +0.81%) and Communications (XLC +0.61%) were in second and third place. Utilities (XLU -1.00%) was the worst performing sector as investors are exiting this safer equities bet for more growth opportunities in other sectors. The VIX volatility index decreased by -3.08%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US 30-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields decreased for the day and the spreads tightened for an additional day. The difference between Corporate and Treasury Bonds yields increased. The US dollar (DXY +0.03%) briefly strengthened during the day, but is currently at a similar value to yesterday. Silver (SILVER -1.23%) and Gold (GOLD -0.36%) both decreased for the day. Timber (WOOD -0.44%) finally pulled back from recent gains. Aluminum Futures (ALI1! -0.67%) also saw its first decline in recent weeks. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL1! -1.47%) pulled back possibly due to new lock downs and jobless claims data showing possible weaker demand for holidays. Adding the Put/Call ratio to the daily indicators. It is currently around 0.635. A contrarian indictor that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. 0.7 is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 and below, watch for a reversal in the market. It’s currently at 0.635 and trending down. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL +0.52%) dipped below its 21d EMA in the morning but closed well above it by the end of the day. Microsoft (MSFT +0.63%) traded below its 50d MA but closed above yet remained below its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN +0.37%) remans below both key moving averages. Alphabet (GOOG +0.98%) continues to trade well above both lines. The rest of the mega-caps followed performance of the sectors. Limited Brands (LB +17.67%) soared to new highs after wowing investors by smashing expectations and reporting a 28% in comparable store sales. Ross Stores (ROST -0.99%) is up after hours after topping estimates. BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ +3.60%) was down after hours despite beating expectations. Macy’s (M +2.11%) announced an earnings beat before open and was up on the day, but has retreated after hours. Overall it seems to be a good week for retail earnings reports. Growth stocks generally had a good day. Chinese EV Car company NIO (NIO +7.52%) resumed its rise with a big gain. ETSY (ETSY +5.90%), SolarEdge (SEDG +4.82%), SNAP (SNAP +4.09%) and SQ (SQ +3.30%) were among several of the top winners on the day. Fastly (FSLY -0.99%) and Fiverr (FVRR -1.62%) were among a handful of pullbacks after several days of gains. Zoom Video (ZM -0.18%) fell back slightly after yesterday’s gain on pandemic lockdown fears. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring an update FOMC member Kaplan, which will likely echo the sentiment from FOMC comments earlier this week. In addition, the Treasury Department reports out to congress. Foot Locker (FL +3.48%) will be among a few retailers and other stocks that will closing the week with earnings reports before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is closing in on new highs but still needs to get past the 10/12 pivot day high that has provided resistance the past week. The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is pointing to a +2.10% gain. The one-day and five-day point to either side of the 10/12 pivot high. They both would be under a +1.00% gain. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -1.69%. If the index can close above the 10/12 pivot day high, then I’d remove this trend line moving forward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are two tests for the index on Friday. First is to make a higher high than today and ideally a higher low as well. The second would be to close above the 10/12 pivot day. A new all-time high would be great but could wait for next week if the index passed those two tests. There is still quite a lot of resistance to overcome with new pandemic lockdowns and the treasury not extending emergency lending programs. Keep an eye out for how these impact the markets tomorrow. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD, XAUUSD - November 19Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- You should watch for any movement that deviates from the 3104.0-3176.40 segment. If it rises with support from the 3008.91 slowdown, it is likely to rise above the 3294.62 floor, but if it falls, it could fall below the 2734.40 point. Therefore, this is the point where careful trading is required. ------------------------ (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (29783.4-29875.4) rising and closed at -1.16%. If you drop from the 29467.9 point, you can touch the 28989.7 point. ------------------------ (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the fall of the gap (11899.3-11896.1) and closed at -0.82%. If you decline from the uptrend line (2), you can touch the 11458.1 point. ----------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3609.5-3612.1) rising and closed at -1.16%. ----------------------------- (GOLD 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (25.37-25.24) and closed at -3.59%. If you fall from the 24.37 point and the downtrend line, you can touch below the 22.35 point. ------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) If you drop from 1855.5, you can touch 1803.382. We have to see if we can quickly ascend above 1871.828 points. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closed price G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 11/18Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (28d), 10/30 bottom (14d), 11/12 (5d), and today 11/18 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I am including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 18, 2020 I'm only happy when it rains Pour your misery down Facts: -0.82% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 1%, Body: 66% Good: Nothing Bad: Character change, break from trend Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: No lower wick, long red body Advance/Decline: 0.63, 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock Sectors: Industrials (XLI -0.45%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) were best performing. Energy (XLE -2.91%) and Utilities (XLU -1.96%) were worst performing. Expectation: Lower A note on Expectation: Avoid reading expectation as a prediction. I try to have an expectation for the market based on the technical and fundamental data available. Then if the market does something different, it compels me to ask why and understand if something is fundamentally changing or if its normal action. The last few days is a good example. My expectation was Higher after Monday close, but we had a sideways to lower result. There is an indecision candle for the Nasdaq yesterday. So I set an expectation for Sideways for today, looking for a direction. This afternoon, the market made a decisive direction change and ended down. I’ll be setting an expectation for lower tomorrow, but the market can certainly change the other direction and that will be a good expectation breaker and sign we are still in a rally. There is no reliable way to predict what the market will do each day. The best I have done in a computer algorithm analyzing candlestick charts is 50.01% accuracy. A coin flip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market ended today with a character change, raising questions about where it may go in the near term. The competing optimism and pessimism with the pandemic and economy led to a day and a half of indecision which finally turned to a downside move at the end of Wednesday. The character change is noted and will follow closely over the next few days. The index closed with a -0.82% loss on higher volume. The candle has a red body of 66% and a closing range of 1%, leaving no bottom wick. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks on the index. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -1.16%), Dow Jones Industrial average (-1.16%) and the Russell 2000 (-1.26%) all ended with losses. The notable change is seeing the RUT with the worst performance among the indexes for today after outperforming since early last week. There was also a change in the sector performance. After leading last week and the past two days, Energy (XLE -2.91%) dropped to the bottom of the list. It is still at the top when considering change since the vaccine was announced on 11/9, but this is a signal of sentiment change in which sector will lead. All sectors were down for the day with Industrials (XLI -0.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) performing the best compared to the S&P 500. Financials (XLF -0.95%) led in the morning before falling back. The VIX volatility index increased by 4.98%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities The US30Y-US10Y spread tightened for the day while the US10Y-US2Y spread increased. The spread of Corporate Bonds to Treasury Bonds increased slightly. The US dollar (DXY -0.03%) continued to weaken over the past week. Silver (SILVER -0.65%) and Gold (GOLD -0.38%) both decreased for the day. Timber (WOOD +0.35%) continued to grow at a slower pace than the earlier this month. Aluminum Futures (ALI1! +0.85%) continues to climb. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL1! +2.46%) gained after inventories data came back less than expected, a good sign for demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All the big four mega-caps lost for the day. Apple (AAPL -1.14%) and Google (GOOG -1.32%) are still trading above key moving average lines. Microsoft (MSFT -1.58%) dropped below the 21d EMA and Amazon (AMZN -0.96%) remains below the 21d EMA and the 50d MA. Tesla (TSLA +10.20%) continued to rise after being added to the S&P 500. Some other mega-caps such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +1.27%) had gains but most mega-caps lost for the day. Target (TGT +2.34%), TJX Companies (TJX +1.86%) gained after releasing earnings before market open. Lowe’s (LOW -8.21%) was down after also releasing earnings before open. Limited Brands (LB -5.19%) completed the days retail earnings with a positive beat and is up 9.70% after hours. NVDA (+0.05%) is also down 2-3% after hours after beating earnings and revenue but warning on a decline in data center revenue. Many of the Growth stocks that had gains during the pandemic, ended the day positive, showing the market is expecting more impact from new lockdowns. Zoom Video (ZM +3.34%), Peloton (PTON +1.95%) and Fastly (FSLY +3.49%) are a few of the stocks that outperformed the market. RIOT (RIOT -13.72%) gave back some of the massive gains on the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Existing Home Sales data will be released tomorrow, a bullish/bearish indicator for the USD and will add some more detail to the mixed results of today’s Building Permits (below expectation) and Housing Starts (above expectation) data. Initial Jobless Claims and more manufacturing data will also be released. Macy’s (M +2.16%), ROSS Stores (ROST +0.76%), BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ +2.09%) will add to this weeks Retail earnings releases. Intuit (INTU -1.12%) and Workday (WDAY -1.40%) are notable growth stocks to release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is still pointing to a new all-time high if the index can gain +3.01%. A return to the five-day trend line would result in a +1.55% gain and be a healthy reversal from today’s afternoon action. An alternative would be a sideways to positive move of +0.41% which would follow the one-day regression trend line. That one-day line seems compromised however with the late sell-off today. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -1.12% loss which would be just above the 21d EMA. Landing at this area would confirm the character change from today, but not be disastrous. The index in the past has held support here before dropping below it, giving a chance to assess what the next move might be. The 50d MA could also be a point that the index drops to and that is -3.77% below today’s close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The character change in the market this afternoon is a signal of investor nervousness around the pandemic and new lockdowns overtaking optimism of a vaccine. Keep in mind though that this sentiment can also change back the other direction, especially if the situation puts more pressure on congress to pass stimulus. You can be ready for a worsening market by putting stop loss orders in place, getting off margin and selling riskier assets. But do not overreact to the change signal until it is confirmed. Pay more attention to the price of the market and your investments instead of the news. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD, XAUUSAD - November 18Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- It started with the gap (3131.06-3183.54) rising and closed at 0.15%. You should check for any movement that deviates from the 3104.0-3176.40 section. -------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (29950.4-29800.2) and closed at -0.56%. -------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) The gap (11924.1-11913.3) started lower and closed at -0.21%. --------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (3626.9-3610.3) and closed at -0.48%. ---------------------------- (GOLD 1D chart) It closed lower below the 25.75 point. We have to see if we can get off the downtrend line. ----------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We have to see if we can get support at 1855.5-1871.828 and climb above 1899.330. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closed price G2: The market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 11/17Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (27d), 10/30 bottom (13d), 11/11 (5d), and today 11/17 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I am including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 17, 2020 When I’m without it The more that I want it Facts: -0.21% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 48%, Body: 14% Good: Higher high, Higher low trend continues Bad: Resistance, Could not break into 12,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecision candle with open and close in a tight range Advance/Decline: 1.09, just slightly more advancing stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.02%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.05% at the top. Utilities (XLU -1.96%) is the worst performing. Expectation: Sideways A note on Expectation: Avoid reading expectation as a prediction or guide for investment. I try to have an expectation for the market based on the technical and fundamental data available. Then if the market does something different, it compels me to ask why and understand if something is fundamentally changing or if its normal action. Today is a good example. My expectation was Higher (see yesterday’s update), but we had a sideways to lower result. You can see there is an indecision candle for the Nasdaq, which also shows a possible character change. I will set an expectation for Sideways tomorrow, and if the market goes up or down that becomes more signal on overall direction. There is no reliable way to predict what the market will do each day. The best I have done in a computer algorithm analyzing candlestick charts is 50.01% accuracy. A coin flip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Today the Nasdaq had a lot of back and forth but within a tight trading range. After shaking off lower than expected retail sales growth, the index grew to a higher high than the previous day. But later in the day sold off perhaps due to dire economic outlooks from FOMC members and the Fed’s Jerome Powell. At the end of the day, the index closed at a -0.21% loss with a small 14% red body and a closing range of 48%. Even though volume was lower than the previous day, its higher than the recent average and shows the undecided outcome between bulls and bears for the day. The index was unable to approach the 10/12 pivot-day high and resistance point, something that needs to happen to keep the rally alive. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The Russell 2000 (RUT +0.37%) continued to shine, turning in the only positive result among our indexes. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.48%) and Dow Jones Industrials (DJI -0.56%) both ended with losses and very thin-body candles. Small-caps continue to get the attention in this market. Given the makeup of the indexes, it was a bit surprising to see Energy (XLE +1.02%) still outperform the other sectors. But keep in mind that XLE represents the smallest percentage of total market value in the SPX. Real Estate (XLRE +0.05%) was the only other sector to end the day in the positive. Utilities (XLU -1.96%) led the sectors in the morning but sold off to end the day with the worst performance. The VIX volatility index increased slightly by 1.16%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields decreased for the day, but still within a tight range for the previous several days. The 10Y-2Y spread also decreased slightly as well. Corporate to Treasury Bonds spread remained the same. The US dollar (DXY -0.22%) weakened further. Silver (SILVER -0.98%) and Gold (GOLD -0.47%) both decreased for the day. Timber (WOOD +0.16%) started to slow down from recent accelerated growth. Aluminum Futures (ALI1! +1.11%) continues to climb on demand from manufacturing and beverage industries. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -0.81%) dropped but is still up over 16% since the end of October. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL -0.76%), Microsoft (MSFT -1.28%) and Alphabet (GOOG -0.63%) were all down for the day, with Microsoft testing the 21d EMA but staying above. Amazon (AMZN +0.15%) rose above the 21d EMA and 50d EMA but ended the day below these keys moving average lines. Tesla (TSLA +8.21%) got a boost from the announcement it will be included in the S&P 500 index. Only a handful of other mega-caps ended the day with gains. Walmart (WMT -2.01%) lossed for the day after beating expectations in earnings and revenue, but possibly disappointing on outlook. Kohls (KSS +11.59%) also beat earnings expectations the stock price rose, but the stock has traded mostly sideways since March lows. Growth stocks seemed to have a better day. Square (SQ +4.88%), Fastly (FSLY +3.49%), Etsy (ETSY +2.55%) were among stocks that have sold off recently but had significant gains on Tuesday. That makes sense given the RUT and Nasdaq outperformed the S&P 500 and DJI. Sea Limited (SE -4.26%) turned in losses for the day after showing a slowdown in business via its earnings report. Moderna (MRNA -4.90%) pulled back after making a new all-time high the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring updates on Housing Starts and Building Permits which could impact Real Estate and Materials sectors as well as be another indicator economic health. Crude Oil Inventories will also be announced. Target (TGT -1.30%), TJX Companies (TJX +0.08%), Lowe’s (LOW -1.26%), and Limited Brands (LB +1.99%) will continue the stream of retail earnings reports tomorrow. NVIDIA (NVDA -0.69%) will also report earnings, one of the few big tech companies to report this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is still pointing to a new all-time high. That would be a +2.11% gain from today’s close. The five-day trend and one-day trend line is pointing to a +0.52% gain, just at the 10/12 pivot high. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.23% loss which would be just above the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After mixed signals from economic news and earnings reports, the market turned in an indecisive day that follows the trend from the middle of last week. Tomorrow should bring some confirmation of direction higher or lower. Be prepared and have a plan for both. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD, XAUUSD - November 13Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- It started with a drop in the gap (3128.81-3093.20) and closed at 0.07%. We have to see if we can get support at 3104.0 by around November 20th. ------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (29479.8-29672.4) rising and closed at 1.60%. ------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (11829.3-11847.1) rising and closed at 0.80%. ------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3585.2-3600.2) rising and closed at 1.16%. ------------------------- (GOLD 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (25.89-25.80) and closed at -0.12%. ---------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) You should check for any movement that deviates from 1871.828-1899.330. If you go down from 1855.500, you may fall towards 1803.382, so you need to trade carefully. A move above 1899.330 and gaining support is expected to rise above 1940.498. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they are not trading 24 hours a day. G1: closing price when closed G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 11/16Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (26d), 10/30 bottom (12d), 11/10 (5d), and today 11/16 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 16, 2020 Take my hand We're off to never never-land Facts: +0.80% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 63% Good: Recovered from mid-day dip to finish near highs Bad: Not much, solid day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body, tiny upper wick. Advance/Decline: 2.39, almost 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +6.58%) and Energy (XLE +6.58%) at the top (yes, I counted it twice). Health (XLV -0.19) is the only sector with a loss. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq started the week off with a decent gain that showed a positive reaction to comments from the November FOMC meeting. FOMC committee members Daly and Clarida made public comments around 14:00pm that monetary policy, including quantitative easing and interest rates, would remain the same while watching the economy closely. Investors responded positively to the remarks as the indexes pivoted back toward highs of the day. The Nasdaq ended up +0.80% for the day with a 63% green body and an 89% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is mostly body with a lower wick formed from open prices and a short upper wick from the close near the daily highs. The index closed just under the 10/12 pivot high, a key line to watch for resistance later this week on the way to a new all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The other major indexes made new all-time highs, adding to last week’s performance. The Russell 2000 (+2.37%) finished up the highest among the indexes and showing the continued interest in small-cap stocks in the market. The S&P 500 (SPX +1.16%) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +1.60%) also finished in the positive, outperforming the Nasdaq composite. Energy (XLE +6.58%) continued to build on the amazing performance last week, building off hopes of economic recovery in sectors that depend on energy such as transportation, travel and leisure industries. Industrials (XLI +2.44%) and Financials (XLF +2.22%) came in as a distance second and third. The only sector that closed with a loss on the day was Health (XLV -0.17%) The VIX volatility index decreased -2.81%, getting close to the lows of August. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields increased just slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y remained about the same. Corporate Bonds continue to see an influx of investment, widening the spread between these bonds and treasury bonds. The US dollar (DXY -0.17%) weakened further. Silver (SILVER +0.47%) increased slightly while Gold (GOLD +0.03%) remained flat. Timber (WOOD +2.19%) continued to climb on strong demand for building materials. Aluminum Futures (ALI1! +1.21%) also climbed on high demand, likely from an increase in manufacturing and packaging needs (think especially automotive and beverages). Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL +2.23%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four big mega-caps turned in positive results for the day but mostly underperformed the index. Apple (AAPL +0.87%) is the exception, performing just slightly better than the index after opening behind the index. Microsoft (MSFT +0.33%) and Google (GOOG +0.25%) are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN +0.07%) has yet to close above these key indicators after dropping below last week. Other notable performances from mega-caps include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +6.49%) and Walt Disney Company (DIS +4.56%). Pfizer (PFE -3.34%) continues to slide back after the big gains after their vaccine announcement last week. Some growth stocks are recovering from last weeks rotation, while others are continuing to sell. Fiverr sold off heavily on Mon and Tues of last week but is gaining ground and could see new all-time highs soon with the current trajectory. Organic Gardening stock GrowGeneration (GRWG +4.11%) continues to climb after a boost from the election results legalizing marijuana in several states. COVID pandemic favorite Zoom Video (ZM -1.10%) maybe finding a support area but still needs to prove itself in the current price range. JD.com (JD -7.41%) sold off after releasing earnings that disappointed on revenue. Transportation, Travel, and Leisure stocks got another boost from an additional vaccine announcement from Moderna (MRNA +9.58%). American Airlines (AAL +4.49%) and Delta (DAL +4.22%), Hilton (HLT +4.55%) and Marriott (MAR +3.13%), Carnival Corp (CCL +9.74%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL +6.93%) represented big names in industries that got the boost. Tyson Foods (TSN +3.83%) reporting earnings after the close and beat expectations on earnings and revenue. The stock is up 4.17% in after-hours trading and is a good start to a week of earnings from consumer and retail stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead It is the week of retail. On top of many earnings releases, economic data tomorrow will include Core Retail Sales monthly data. Walmart (WMT +1.26%), Home Depot (HD +0.87%), Kohls (KSS +7.79%) will release earnings tomorrow, providing more detail on the health of the Retail industry. Import/Export Price indexes will be released. Additional statements will be made from the Federal Open Market Committee. Technology Services company Sea Limited (SE -1.77%) will release earnings tomorrow. The stock is up 350% for the year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is still pointing to a new all-time high, even though the index is taking its time to get there. That would be a +1.71% gain from today’s close. The five-day trend is pointing to a +0.46% gain, just above the 10/12 pivot high. The one-day trend line is showing mostly a sideways move for tomorrow with a small lost of -0.40%. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.90% loss which would be just above the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It is retail week for the market. All eyes are on earnings from the companies along the supply change from producers to sellers. Added to that will be MoM retail data. Taken all together, it could be a hint of what’s to come for Black Friday and beyond. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD - November 14Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- It started with the gap (3110.28-3122.0) rising and closed at 0.60%. We have to see if we can get support and climb at 3104.0. ----------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (29080.2-29203.9) rising and closed at 1.37%. We have to see if we can break above the 29467.9 point and continue the high altitude march. ----------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (11709.6-11794.9) rising and closed at 1.02%. We need to see if it can rise along the uptrend line (2). ------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3537.0-3552.6) rising and closed at 1.36%. It remains to be seen if the uptrend can continue within the uptrend line (3)-(4), the uptrend channel. ------------------------------ (BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION (GOLD) 1D chart) It started with the gap (25.91-26.30) rising and closed at -0.08%. We need to see if we can get support at 25.75 and break above the downtrend line. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they are not trading 24 hours a day. G1: Closed price G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
4
Market Week In Review - 11/9/2020 - 11/13/2020The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a larger view on the past week What's coming in the next week Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 9, 2020 Oh life, it’s bigger It’s bigger than you know Facts: -1.53%% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 3%, Body: 82% Good: Nothing Bad: Negative expectation breaker, not much pause on the way down Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low, bearish engulfing candle Candle: Tiny top wick from morning, sell-off rest of day Advance/Decline: 2.00, two advancing stocks for each declining stock Sectors: Energy (+14.28%) and Financials (XLF +9.21%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Communications (XLC -0.85%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market turned itself upside down again with a negative expectation breaker following the news of an effective Coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer (PFE +7.69%) and BioNTech (BNTX +13.91%). Investors quickly exited stocks that have grown during the pandemic and rushed into companies that have been weighted down such as travel and energy companies. The Nasdaq started with gains in the morning, but quickly turned those gains into losses that never stopped into close. The index closed down -1.53% with a closing range of 3% and a thick red body of 82%. The candle is a bearish engulfing, with a higher high and a lower low than the previous day. However, advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks at a 2 to 1 ratio. Who benefited from the day? Small caps, lots of them. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 10, 2020 Change don't come at once It's a wave building before it breaks Facts: -1.37% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 54%, Body: 28% Good: Successful test of 21d EMA Bad: Choppy back and forth day after dip at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low, continuation candle Candle: Thin body, closes in middle of candle, with longer bottom wick Advance/Decline: 1.49, three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Sectors: Energy (+3.24%), Consumer Staples (XLP +1.97%), Industrials (XLI +1.76%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.86%) was at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market on Tuesday continued its rotation from big Technology and Communications stocks into small-cap and energy stocks. Initiated by the news on Monday of a vaccine for Coronavirus and hopes the economy could recover sooner than expected. The Nasdaq, heavy on technology stocks, has taken the brunt of the sell-off of stocks that have done well thus far in 2020. The index finished down -1.37% on lower volume than Monday, but higher than average volume for recent weeks. The candle has the properties of a continuation candle with a small 28% red body and a 54% closing range. It leaves me wondering if the index will move sideways from here or have further losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 11, 2020 Whatever it takes 'Cause I love the adrenaline in my veins Facts: +2.01% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 95%, Body: 84% Good: Up the whole day, closed near highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Very tiny wicks, sold green body Advance/Decline: 1.30, a ratio of about 4:3 advancing to declining stocks Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.37%) far above the others. Energy (XLE -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways As rotations often go, the move earlier this week into Energy, Transportation and Leisure stocks was a bit too far and needed to swing back the other way. The Nasdaq benefited from that swing back to Technology stocks which are still in-play until the pandemic is truly behind us. The index is up +2.01% today and moved upward almost the entire day, ending the day with a 95% closing range and 85% green body. Volume was lower than the previous days and fell below the 50d average volume. The positive day was a pleasant surprise after the past two days, but I think we can expect more of the unexpected in coming days and weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 12, 2020 You'll never find your gold on a sandy beach Facts: -0.65% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 24%, Body: 51% Good: Higher high, Higher low Bad: Could not hold days high, finished near the low on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Larger upper wick, thick body. Advance/Decline: 0.48, 2 declining stocks for every advancing stock Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.27%) and Health (XLV -0.37%). Energy (XLE -3.23%) and Materials (XLB -2.11%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market started the day with some energy when Initial Jobless Claims came in less than expected showing some positive news against continued economic worries surrounded by the pandemic. However, quickly sold off led by the Energy sector after Crude Oil Inventories showed a surprise increase when a decrease was expected. Core CPI came in less than expected and could be a sign of continued economic weakness. The Nasdaq fell -0.65% on slightly higher volume than the previous day. Volume is still below average for recent weeks. The candle has a closing range of 24% with a 51% red body. The upper wick is slightly higher showing the bears won the day. The Nasdaq had two declining stocks for every advancing stock, a better result than the broader market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 13, 2020 I walk alone, I walk alone Facts: +1.02% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 26% Good: Closing range near intraday highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick, thin body, nearly an inside day. Advance/Decline: 2.89, almost 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The Nasdaq was left out of the all-time high close party where the other indexes celebrated today. It was still a good day, but the focus was on sectors other than Technology, which is heavily represented in the Nasdaq. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in higher then expected while Core PPI (which excludes Energy and Food) came in lower than expected. Investors seemed to attribute that to the Energy sector, which was the top performing sector of the day. The Nasdaq index rose +1.02% and ended the day with an 85% closing range and a 26% green body in the upper half of the day. Volume was lower than the prior day. The longer lower wick was formed from morning lows which were not revisited through the rest of the day. A short upper wick formed near close as investors exited positions heading into the weekend. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock in the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week of rotations. If your week started the same as mine, it was early Monday morning, and I was putting in my typical orders to create new positions in my favorite growth stocks. The election seemed behind us and it was time for the post-election rally. And then it happened. The good news that was bad news; bad news for my growth stocks. Pfizer and BioNTech announced data from trials showed a 90% effectiveness rate for their vaccine. I was looking at the Zoom video chart at the time the news came out and watched it plunge. Investors quickly exited growth stocks that had benefited from the pandemic lockdowns. But not before making a new all-time high for the Nasdaq. That all-time high was short lived as the tech-heavy Nasdaq sold off to other sectors. Where did they go? Two places. First, they went to stocks that have been held down the pandemic. Those included Transportation stocks such as airlines, Travel stocks such as hotels and Leisure stocks including Cruise lines and Movie theatres. AMC as an example, rose 51.41% on Monday. The other big winner of the day was Energy stocks that will benefit from these other sectors picking back up activity. Second, investors moved to small caps who also will benefit from an economic recovery. The Russell 2000 index rose 6% for the week compared to the Nasdaq composite index that lost -0.55% for the week. Not all technology growth stocks were left in the dust. The rotation eventually rolled back somewhat on Wednesday when investors bought back big names like Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. Along with the big names several growth stocks were bought back heavily, but nonetheless ended the week mostly with losses. Energy (XLE +17.11% WoW) was the clear winner of the week. Straight out of the gait, Energy benefited from the news that an effective vaccine could be available soon. The Energy sector would benefit from the economic recovery of several of sectors including Transportation, Travel and Leisure. Financials (XLF +8.29% WoW) followed in a distance second. Banks have a lot to benefit from an economic recovery including higher yields in bonds as investors move back into equities. Those two sectors stood tall above the rest who all performed more closely to the S&P 500 performance. Technology (XLK -0.31% WoW) was the only sector to end the week with losses. A clear metric of what we already knew - that investors rotated out of popular technology stocks that benefited from the pandemic lockdowns. US Treasure Bond Yields were up for the week. The 30Y-10Y spread tightened, but the 10Y-2Y spread is back near highs not seen since 2018. That does not necessarily warrant concern by itself but is something to continue to watch. The yields are still too low to attract investors out of equities. However, higher yields will impact where investors focus in the market. The higher yields drive interest rates and may signal a move toward value stocks and away from growth stocks which tend to be heavier on debt to rapidly grow business. The big four mega-caps did not escape the rotation madness. Apple and Google are up for the week while Microsoft is down. Amazon had the worst week among the big four, ending the week under it’s 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple and Microsoft both found themselves below these key moving averages earlier in the week but closed back above them by Friday. Depending on their sector, the other mega-caps had mixed results for the week. The put/call ratio spiked toward the bearish side on Wednesday, but quickly moved back below the 0.7 bullish threshold. The contrarian indicator can show when there is too much bullish sentiment or too much bearish sentiment in the market. The indicator is still above the areas the proceeded corrections earlier this year. Gold and Silver ended the week flat. Crude Oil futures gained ground. The big story continues to be aluminum. Beer and soda companies are struggling to keep up with demand. Yes, we are all drinking too much during the pandemic. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Next week the story will be about Retail and Consumer Staples. Earnings from big companies like Tyson Foods, Walmart, TJX, Target, Ross, Lowe’s will give investors a clear view in how consumer spending is recovering. The indicators from this past week, including Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and Consumer Confidence were mixed so next week’s earnings will be watched closely. Nvidia will also announce earnings next week, one of the only big tech to release next week. There will be comments made by the Federal Open Market Committee throughout the week. These comments usually contain subtle hints to monetary policy changes that may be on the horizon. Core Retail Sales data will be released on Tuesday. Construction and Real Estate data will be released on Wednesday along with the weekly Crude Oil updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: 11965.54 is the 10/12 pivot day high and currently putting resistance on the index. Passing this will be the first test for next week. Passing 12108.87 is the new all-time high. The index was only there briefly on Monday before selling-off. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise red flags, many similar to what we watched for last week: Tuesday’s low of 11,424.61. Dropping this low would be a signal of significant weakness. The low of Thursday, Nov 4 is at 11,394.21. There is another gap to fill below that line. The 21d EMA is at 11533.87. The index successfully tested that line and closed above it this past week. October Support is at 11,400. September Support is at 11,300, and just below the 50d MA of 11,308.07. The next area to watch is the July support area at 10,600. Approaching that area would be a significant pullback and put the market back into correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up That was a crazy week. Growth stock portfolios were ripped apart and watchlists shredded. This weekend will be a good time to pause and look at the big picture of what is going on in the market. What are the new trends to emerge as the market looks past the pandemic? What companies are likely to find strength coming out of the pandemic. The energy, travel and leisure companies may continue to recover or there may be more tough times ahead. Even with the pandemic in a second wave and new lockdowns possible, the market still seems to be looking beyond that, anticipating an end. On the other hand, it is very real that we are not out of the woods. Economic indicators are mixed across the board. Retail and Consumer Staples earnings next week will be watched very closely for how these sectors are performing now and what their outlook is for the next quarter. Watch closely the comments from FOMC executives and their confidence levels for economic recovery and any changes to monetary policy. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 11/13Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (25d), 10/30 bottom (11d), 11/9 (5d), and today 11/13 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 13, 2020 I walk alone, I walk alone Facts: +1.02% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 26% Good: Closing range near intraday highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick, thin body, nearly an inside day. Advance/Decline: 2.89, almost 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq was left out of the all-time high close party where the other indexes celebrated today. It was still a good day, but the focus was on sectors other than Technology, which is heavily represented in the Nasdaq. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in higher then expected while Core PPI (which excludes Energy and Food) came in lower than expected. Investors seemed to attribute that to the Energy sector, which was the top performing sector of the day. The Nasdaq index rose +1.02% and ended the day with an 85% closing range and a 26% green body in the upper half of the day. Volume was lower than the prior day. The longer lower wick was formed from morning lows which were not revisited through the rest of the day. A short upper wick formed near close as investors exited positions heading into the weekend. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock in the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -1.36%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI -1.37%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +2.08%) all had all-time high closes. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial are still below the intraday all-time highs they set on Monday. The RUT closed near its intraday all-time high and is up almost 13% from a bottom on 10/30. All sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +3.64%), Real Estate (XLRE +2.29) and Industrials (XLI +2.22%) are the biggest winners of the day. Health (XLV +1.26%), Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) had gains but lagged the S&P 500. The VIX volatility index decreased -8.88%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields increased slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y spread continues to tighten over the past week. The US dollar (DXY -0.26%) weakened. The Produce Price Index is a bullish indicator for the greenback, but the Consumer Confidence data released from University of Michigan is a bearish signal for the currency. Gold (GOLD +0.65%) and Silver (SILVER +1.49%) both increased. Timber (WOOD +2.76%) returned from losses yesterday to end the week at a high point. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -3.71%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps had gains for the day. Only Google (GOOG +1.55%) outperformed the Nasdaq. Apple (AAPL +0.04%) closed nearly even for the day. Microsoft (MSFT +0.50%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.6%) did better but still underperformed the market at open and close and lagged the intraday movement. Growth stocks continued the mix of gains and losses that have been the hallmark of this week. Fiverr (FVRR +4.97%), JD.COM (JD +6.60%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.59%) were among stocks that had did well. Zoom (ZM -5.85%) and Peloton (PTON +7.29%) were among the stocks that continued to slide as the potential for a new vaccine could change the growth characteristics for these businesses that benefited from lockdowns. Draft Kings (DKNG +3.85%) beat expectations and gave a great forecast. It gapped at open but dropped nearly 6% in intraday trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Daly and Clarida, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will speak on Monday about the economy which usually drops hints about monetary policy. Tyson Foods (TSN +2.50%) will release earnings on Monday, kicking off a week or consumer and retail earnings releases for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom has consistently pointed to a new all-time high, as prices moved mostly sideways this week. That would be a +2.38% increase and welcome the index to the group of other indexes trading at all-time highs. Continuing today’s one-day trend line would result in a +0.29% gain. The five-day trend line is still on a negative slope and pointing to a -1.15% loss for Monday. The longest trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.59% loss, right at the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Friday continued the week of rotations, causing a lot of damage to investors favorite watchlists. Its hard to find setups with good entry points when heavy rotations are occurring. Hopefully next week will bring some more resolution around issues impacting the market and give more indication of direction. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD - November 13Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- The gap (3050.0-3159.95) started higher and closed lower. You need to make sure you get support at point 3104.0. If it gains support and rises between 3008.91-3104.0, it is expected to rise along the uptrend line (1). Therefore, I think the current position is an important position to determine the future flow. --------------------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with a decline in the gap (29397.6-29231.9) and closed at -1.08%. We have to see if we can get support and climb at 28989.7. --------------------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (11786.4-11802.5) rising and closed at -0.65%. We need to see if it can rise along the uptrend line (2). ------------------------------------------ (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3572.7-3562.7) falling and closed at -1.0%. ----------------------------------------- (GOLD 1D chart) It started with the gap (25.79-26.02) rising and closed at 0.47%. We must see if we can get support above the 25.75 point and break above the downtrend line. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they are not trading 24 hours a day. G1: Closed price G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 11/12Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (24d), 10/30 bottom (10d), 11/6 (5d), and today 11/12 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 12, 2020 You'll never find your gold on a sandy beach Facts: -0.65% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 24%, Body: 51% Good: Higher high, Higher low Bad: Could not hold days high, closed near the low on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Larger upper wick, thick body. Advance/Decline: 0.48, 2 declining stocks for every advancing stock Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.27%) and Health (XLV -0.37%). Energy (XLE -3.23%) and Materials (XLB -2.11%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market started the day with some energy when Initial Jobless Claims came in less than expected showing some positive news against continued economic worries surrounded by the pandemic. However, quickly sold off led by the Energy sector after Crude Oil Inventories showed a surprise increase when a decrease was expected. Core CPI came in less than expected and could be a sign of continued economic weakness. The Nasdaq fell -0.65% on slightly higher volume than the previous day. Volume is still below average for recent weeks. The candle has a closing range of 24% with a 51% red body. The upper wick is slightly higher showing the bears won the day. The Nasdaq had two declining stocks for every advancing stock, a better result than the broader market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -1.00%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI -1.08%) and Russell 2000 (RUT -1.64%) also had losses on the day with the RUT seeing the biggest decline. The RUT confirms a hanging man candlestick the previous day, signaling a reversal for the index. All sectors ended the day with losses. Communications (XLC -0.57%), Technology (XLK -0.89%) and Health (XLV -0.37%) led the morning gains before losing ground. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.27%) ended the day with the least damage. Energy (XLE -3.23%) and Materials (XLB -2.11%) were the worst two sectors for the second day in a row. The VIX volatility index increased +8.10% reversing a recent downtrend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields declined for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also decreased. The spread was is near its highest point since February of 2018. The US dollar (DXY -0.09%) weakened slightly after several days of gains. A decrease in the value of Gold (GOLD +0.61%) increased slightly while Silver (SILVER +0.10%) remained about the same. Timber (WOOD -2.32%) took a reversal off a high point. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -0.03%) remained flat despite OPEC lowering demand estimates and inventories increasing more than expected. Crude Oil is up over 15% since the start of November. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Except for Amazon (AMZN -0.86%), the big four mega-caps of Apple (AAPL -0.23%), Microsoft (MSFT -0.51%) and Google (GOOG -0.16%) outperformed the index despite having losses for the day. Amazon tested the 21d EMA but did not make it over and remains the only of the big four under the key moving average lines. Most other mega-caps had losses today. Growth stocks saw a mix of gains and losses today. Elective Vehicle company NIO (NIO +12.12%) rose significantly. GrowGeneration (GRWG +16.05%) a provider of hydroponic and organic gardening supplies had a huge boost from earnings and election results that are viewed to be in support of the industry. WIX.com (WIX -5.45%) had a mixed reaction to earnings, selling off but staying within this past weeks trading range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Growth stock Draftkings (DKNG -0.94%) will announce earnings tomorrow. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be release tomorrow prior to market open. This will give another view on inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend from the 10/30 bottom still points to just above all time highs at a +3.12% gain from today’s close. That is the only trend line showing a positive gain for tomorrow. Add that to a bearish candlestick pattern for today and it seems unlikely without a news catalyst. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -0.76% loss for tomorrow. The longest trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is meeting up with the one-day trend at a -1.95% loss. That would be just below the 21d EMA but above the October support area. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq is forming an ascending triangle on the index daily chart. A pattern is just a pattern and does not necessarily predict anything. There is a lot that can disrupt expectations from the unfinalized election to the unknowns the pandemic and vaccine timing. If the pattern does play out, it is showing more consolidation before the market can move higher. If that is true, there is a good chance for the index to revisit the bottom of the ascending triangle. I added a line on the chart for the bottom of the triangle. The top is same as the all-time high line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It has been mostly a sideways move for the market since Monday’s rotation instigated by the positive news of a vaccine for Coronavirus, possibly bringing an end to the economic stress sooner than expected. At the same time, the signals are mixed. Investors rotated back into covid-plays the past two days. Many economic indicators that were positives on Monday and Tuesday are softening or reversing now. On the positive side, the four mega-caps held up well compared to the market today. Although it did have some impact, Investors did not overreact to the economic news of consumer prices and oil inventories. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD - November 12Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- The gap (3035.02-3061.78) started with an increase and ended higher. It remains to be seen if it will rise above 3159.99 and fill the previous gap (3048.41-3159.99). If it is supported at 3104.0 in the short-term downtrend, it is expected to rise towards the 3294.62 point. If it falls from the 3008.91 point, it is the Stop Loss point. Secondly, I touched the support line. I think it's time to get support at 3104.0 to get further up. -------------------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) The gap (29420.9-29524.4) started and closed with a rise. ------------------------------------ (IXIC 1D chart) The gap (11424.6-11656.6) started with an increase and ended higher. ------------------------------------ (SPX 1D chart) The gap (3545.5-3563.2) started with a rise and ended higher. ---------------------------------- (GOLD 1D chart) You need to make sure you can get support at 25.75. If you move down the downtrend line, you need to see if you get support at 22.51-24.07. It remains to be seen if the rebound could increase more than 26.55 points. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profit S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closed price G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 11/11Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (23d), 10/30 bottom (9d), 11/5 (5d), and today 11/11 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or check the comments on TradingView. I don’t have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 11, 2020 Whatever it takes 'Cause I love the adrenaline in my veins Facts: +2.01% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 95%, Body: 84% Good: Up the whole day, closed near highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Very tiny wicks, sold green body Advance/Decline: 1.30, a ratio of about 4:3 advancing to declining stocks Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.37%) far above the others. Energy (XLE -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview As rotations often go, the move earlier this week into Energy, Transportation and Leisure stocks was a bit too far and needed to swing back the other way. The Nasdaq benefited from that swing back to Technology stocks which are still in-play until the pandemic is truly behind us. The index is up +2.01% today and moved upward almost the entire day, ending the day with a 95% closing range and 85% green body. Volume was lower than the previous days and fell below the 50d average volume. The positive day was a pleasant surprise after the past two days, but I think we can expect more of the unexpected in coming days and weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +0.77%) had a positive inside day ending with gains. An inside day is when the high and low is within the prior days high and low. The day fits within the past two days that have opened and closed within a 1% range in the index. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI -0.08%) had a small loss but is also within a tight open/close range for this week. The Russell 2000 (RUT -0.00%) ended the day flat but with a candle that looks like a top signal, to be confirmed later this week. Technology (XLK +2.37%) clearly had everyone’s attention today as traders moved back into stocks that have done well during the pandemic. Communications (XLC +0.91%) followed with a far second and close to several other sectors ending positive on the day. Energy (XLE -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.49%) were the losing sectors of the day as investors took profits and rotated back to tech. Financials (XLF -0.41%) and Industrials (XLI -0.84%) were also down after gains earlier this week. The VIX volatility index decreased -5.44% for the day and had the lowest close since early September. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Forex and Commodities Treasury Bond yields decreased for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also decreased, but not so much to cause alarm. The spread, an indicator of investors’ confidence in the economy, is still at its highest point since February of 2018. The US dollar (DXY +0.32%) strengthened, also signaling investors’ confidence in economic recovery. A decrease in the value of Gold (GOLD -0.63%) is not unexpected when the value of the US dollar increases. Silver (SILVER +0.16%) remained about the same. Timber (WOOD +0.73%) is at its highest point since 2018. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL +1.90%) is up over 15% since the start of November and had increases today despite OPEC projecting weaker demand thru 2021. The worsening projection was not a surprise to investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps all reversed off losses yesterday to close with gains today. Apple (AAPL +3.04%), Microsoft (MSFT +2.63%) and Amazon (AMZN +3.37%) all outperformed the index from open to close. Google (GOOG +0.71%) continues to move sideways after several weeks of growth. Only Amazon remains below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines which can act as resistance as well as support. The rest of the mega-caps faired well, except for those who benefited from the rotation earlier in the week. Investors took profits from mega-cap stocks in Financials and Consumer Staples. Many growth stocks had gains today, but any excitement needs to be tempered with the losses they incurred on Monday and Tuesday. Fiverr International (FVRR +17.66%) had a big gain but is still down -15% for the week. Nvidia (NVDA +5.07%) is up today but still down -8% for the week. Pinterest (PINS +6.97%) is also up for the day but remains down -8% for the week. That list can go on and on. Datadog (DDOG -6.23%) is down after beating expectations but not impressing investors enough to stick with the stock. GrowGeneration (GRWG +7.77%) met earnings expectations and is up 7% in afterhours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Farfetch (FTCH +3.88%), Globant (GLOB -1.85%) and Wix.com (WIX +10.49%), Applied Materials (AMAT +2.55%) are among earnings releases for tomorrow. On the economic news calendar, Consumer Price Index data, Initial Jobless Claims and Crude Oil Inventories will be announced tomorrow. Expect Consumer Price Index is projected to remain about the same. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to be lower from last week. Crude Oil Inventories are expected to be negative after a big surprise decrease last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend from the 10/30 bottom is pointing to a +3.12% increase for tomorrow, taking the index back to all-time highs. A more modest gain would be following today’s one-day trend line that would result in a +0.55% gain, a sideways move considering the trading range over the past week. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -1.50% loss while the longer-term trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.95% loss. The latter would be just below the 21d EMA. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq is forming an ascending triangle on the index daily chart. A pattern is just a pattern and does not necessarily predict anything. There is a lot that can disrupt expectations from the unfinalized election to the unknowns the pandemic and vaccine timing. However, if the pattern does play out, it’s showing consolidation before the market can move higher. If that is true, there is a good chance for the index to revisit the bottom of the ascending triangle. I added a line on the chart for the bottom of the triangle. The top is same as the all-time high line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Lots to absorb in the past two weeks. I know personally I would like to see a direction for the market, and I imagine most investors are in the same boat. If it wants to go up, great. If it wants to go down, also great. But the back and forth, stock rotations, news impacts can all be very tiring and demoralizing. Keep your spirits up and know you are not alone. With a little luck, you have been turning a profit. If not, there will be future profits to be had. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, GOLD - November 11Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- The gap (3143.74-3095.02) started lower and closed lower. You need to make sure you can get support at 3008.91. If it falls from the 3008.91 point, there is a possibility that it falls below the 2734.40 point. If you are supported at 3008.91, it is a possible entry point. Therefore, careful trading is necessary. ------------------------------------------------ (DJI 1D chart) The gap (29158.0-29254.2) started with a rise and ended higher. You should check for any movement that deviates from the 28989.7-29467.9 section. -------------------------------------------------- - (IXIC 1D chart) The gap (11713.8-11622.4) started lower and closed lower. You should check for any movement that deviates from the 11458.1-11695.6 segment. ------------------------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started and closed with the gap (3550.5-3543.3) falling. You should check for any movement that deviates from the 3483.3-3580.8 section. ------------------------------------------------ (GOLD 1D chart) We have to get support at 25.75 and see if we can get off the downtrend line. It is said to fall from the 25.75 point, and is likely to touch the 24.07 point. After falling from the 29.65 point, it fell below the middle level. If it falls below the 19.15 point, it enters the low end, that is, the mid- to long-term investment zone. Therefore, it is important to get support at the 24.07 point. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop-Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they are not trading 24 hours a day. G1: closing price when closed G2: Market price at the time of opening
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
2
Nasdaq Composite sideways correction, rising to 13500 by Feb2021 Nasdaq Composite has just finished or about to finish the Wave 2 correction of the larger Wave (3) of the larger Wave 5. Some may identify the 2 Sep to 9 Nov 2020 correction as a triangle, but triangles usually appear in the later part of a larger wave, like the second half of wave 3 or wave 4 or in the case of diagonal triangle, wave 5. This is obviously the Wave 2 of the larger Wave (3), the bullish run from March 2020 is fairly young, still has huge space and time to grow, because Wave (3) are quite often extended and could never be the shortest wave. Therefore the 2 Sep to 9 Nov 2020 correction should be correctly typed as a WXY double three or WXYXZ triple three. Double three and triple threes are the less well known types of Elliott Wave correction, but they appear more frequently in the 21st century than 40 or 100 years ago. Perhaps because people today are less patient and trade much faster than 1920s traders, there's often not enough time for the classical 5-wave Wave A and Wave C to develop, instead we get the sideways 3-3-3 WXY correction. There might be another retest of 10800 support within the next 2 weeks, forming the WXYXZ triple three correction. The long term trend of Nasdaq Composite is extremely bullish, in Oct 2020 IXIC bounced up nicely from the 20-week simple moving average, confirming the uptrend is unharmed. I expect more positive news about Corona virus vaccine in November and December 2020, the Christmas season has a statistically 73% probability of being bullish starting from 1950. If we start counting from 1990, December has a staggering 77% probability of bull. The top of the small scale Fibonacci channel converges with the 1.618 extension of the older large Fibonacci channel in Jan and Feb 2021, so the converging point of 13500 is a very valid target. As the Fed has promised to keep the interest rate close to zero for the foreseeable future in Aug 2020, the huge bull of American stocks especially tech stocks will continue. 16000 in latter 2021 seems reasonable, we will probably get 20000 in 2022 and 30000 in 2023 or 2024.
TVC:IXICLong
by MarcusAu
2