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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Nasdaq 100 - The market is irrationally complacentOn 15th July 2022, we stated the market was positioning itself for a significant bear market rally in the short term. We said we were looking for a move up of magnitude between 5-10%. Then, a week later, we laid out conditions for the continuation of a rally while stressing our lack of belief concerning the sustainability of the bounce. We pointed out low liquidity in the market and a few companies dragging major indices higher. Additionally, we explained why fundamental reasons would later push markets over the edge and cause risk-off sentiment. Then, finally, on 11th August 2022, we said the market reached its ultimate peak, and the rally was due to stop. We continue to stick to this assessment, and we would like to see more evidence to confirm our thesis. Ideally, we would like to see more decline in the price of QQQ accompanied by a spike in the volume. Additionally, we would like to see technical indicators complete their reversal from “bullish” to “bearish.” Regarding our price targets, we stick to 300 USD for QQQ and 11 000 USD for NQ1!. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 continuous futures. It also shows support levels made of fan lines. The yellow arrow indicates the bearish breakout below the first support level. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is due to perform a bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic show signs of exhaustion. MACD is bullish but in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
14
Nasdaq 100 - Volatile moves characteristic of the bear marketWild moves in the market left many traders perplexed over the past few days. However, we are not intrigued by the latest volatile movement. Indeed, we think the immense move up (especially in particular stock titles) perfectly displays the characteristic behavior of the bear market. Furthermore, market participants seem eager to buy any possible dip, which does not align with the capitulation and primary trend reversal. That view is also supported by the fundamental factors poised to worsen in about a week. With the FED raising interest rates in the range between 50bps and 100bps, we have very little optimism over the medium and long term. In addition to that, plenty of evidence shows the beginning of a recession, which will be challenging to be averted. As for the technical factors, these show a temporary relief. Nonetheless, we remain bearish on the Nasdaq 100 index and stick to our price targets for QQQ at 290 USD and 280 USD. Our price target for NQ1! stands at 11 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the Nasdaq continuous futures on the daily chart and within the descending channel. Additionally, two simple moving averages are displayed, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. We will pay close attention to these moving averages as we want to see a bearish crossover between them (which will confirm our bearish thoughts). However, if the breakout to the upside (above the upper bound) takes place, the odds will increase toward a bullish side (for the short-term). Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is bullish. Stochastic is slightly bullish. MACD is neutral; however, it will be bullish if it breaks above 0 points. DM+ and DM- are bearish; if they undergo bullish crossover, it will bolster the bullish odds. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish, although the trend is weak, pointing to choppy price action. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The price can be seen increasing over the past few trading sessions. Simultaneously, the volume can be seen decreasing. That is not an ideal picture for the bullish thesis; therefore, we will pay close attention to the following price action. Ideally, we would like to see an increase in volume accompanied by a price decline. Technical analysis - weekly time frame Stochastic and RSI are bearish. MACD points to the upside; however, it remains in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow dashed line shows the immediate support/resistance. The breakout above it will be bullish; the breakout below it will be bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
32
NASDAQ 100 TARGETING 13,000 NEXTIf nasdaq 100 #nq_f futures close over 13,000, the likelihood of taking out the august high is extremely likely, and september month would go engulfing bullish green candle, shocking everyone by reversing traditional cycles. The same thing happened already in 2022 when april had a huge red candle, reversing traditional cycle theory that calls for a green april. Until we break the recent lows, bulls have full control of current market trend. A break of recent september lows would signal extreme downside targets for all indices, as the june 2022 lows would surely not hold.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by mjmassens
Updated Analysis on Tech (QQQ)This is the daily chart of SQQQ. SQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders, therefore, use SQQQ to short tech stocks, or to hedge against a collapse in tech prices. There are several bearish signals appearing in the daily chart of SQQQ, which hint that we may soon see bullish movement for QQQ and the Nasdaq. First, there is decreasing volume in the daily chart of SQQQ, which shows that fewer and fewer market participants are opening new short positions against the Nasdaq. This is occurring even while the price of SQQQ continues to move up. This divergence is bearish and is usually the earliest sign that a reversal is coming. Second, there are major gaps up appearing on the daily chart. Gaps to the upside on SQQQ have historically never failed to close back to the downside. Therefore these gaps should be viewed skeptically, as they fail to validate upward price action. Third, the upper limit of the Fibonacci Bollinger Band continues to act as strong resistance, continuing the more than a decade-long trend whereby price cannot sustain itself above this line on any sustained basis. This line has mathematical importance, it reflects a level of price deviation where, after being reached, price begins to show a mean-reverting tendency back to the downside. In this case, SQQQ's mean reversion would be bullish for QQQ and the Nasdaq. There are many other indications that are showing that SQQQ is too overextending, including the extremely over-heated Stochastic Heat Map. The NDTH is also indicating that a very significant bottom is forming for tech and the Nasdaq. In fact, the Nasdaq is so oversold that the current levels have not been seen this the market crash of 2008-2009. Therefore, SQQQ has effectively priced in a significant recession. While a significant recession might indeed be on the horizon, if a significant recession does not ensue, then we can be fairly certain that a major short squeeze for SQQQ will occur: However, the strongest bullish argument for SQQQ (bearish argument for the Nasdaq) is that weekly price broke through the Ichimoku Cloud for the first time ever. The only plus here is that the weekly candle is a spinning top and most oscillators are trending back down. Regardless, with SQQQ being this historically overextended, it can represent a rare opportunity to buy QQQ and tech stocks before a massive short squeeze occurs. While anything can happen, and one should always use stop losses, this chart does not convince me that SQQQ is about to breakout much higher to the upside. Therefore, I remain a holder of tech and growth stocks for the intermediate-term. Not financial advice. Anything can happen and trends can end.
NASDAQ:SQQQ
by SpyMasterTrades
4
IXIC bear trap, will skyrocket soon This bear trap is too obvious. Now that most investors know the recession story of June 2022 was fake and irrational, there's really no basis for the major stock indexes to go much lower. However, there's probably more consolidation between 11600 and 12600 in September, as October is perceived as the traditional bearish month and investors keep panicking about the FOMC meeting. Only the most irrational and reckless traders would short near 11800, which would be guaranteed financial ruin in the long term. Just buy as much index fund as you can, sit back and enjoy the end-of-year rally. The crazy newbie investors of 2020 and 2021 are mostly scared and liquidated out of the market right now, but sooner or later they will jump into the market with more cash, pushing IXIC to another crazy bull in 2023 and 2024. IXIC goes up, newbies got jealous, newbies jump into the market which pushes IXIC further up, making more newbies jealous... Feedback loop as they never learn.
TVC:IXICLong
by MarcusAu
1
Dont be greedy on IXICAs I posted IXIC price movement speculation a year ago or so, now I want to warn you this is only one of the possibilities. As we kno the price movement can choose only between two dirrefent directions. Either up or down. But now it looks too good to be true to me. But this time is different. With all the world situation and economic war between US and most of the worlds countries, media propaganda about big bear in front of our economy, europe automobile industry "cold". This is all the signt, that tells us be cautious. Be prepared to go at least "half-in" if the price starts to form higher lows on weekly chart. I Will give you updates about my movements and taught, what I think about this crap. See you down here eventually, Wish you luck, DonLobster
NASDAQ:IXIC
by donlobster
3
SPX, Rate hikes and market rally !! lets share ideas.FED started rate hikes this year and so far has increased interest rate up to 2.25 %. When there was just some news about starting rate hikes market showed a sever bearish sentiment and huge decline started. Now and after 2.25 rate hike market sees 8.5 % inflation as a positive sign !!. 8.5 % is much much higher than 2 % target of FED and implies for continuation of the rate hikes. At least we know that FED will increase at minimum another 0.5 on 21th Sep . Today there were some statements by Charles Evans Chicago FED president that interest rate will be 4% at the end of next year and still market is green. Inflation data and FED decisions are interpreted to be the market drivers since start of this year but is this true? Numbers shown on the chart are cumulative interest rate after FED decisions. As we can see SPX today and after 2.25 interest rate is just about 2.5 % down from the day FED raised rates to 0.75 !. Strange !. Can we see higher SPX on 21th Sep ? Is it rational? Some take this as a positive sign for the market : (( FED finally stops rate hikes next year )). OK but rate was not supposed to go higher and higher forever. It was known from the first day that FED will stop rate hikes some day. In terms of macroeconomics, Russia -Ukraine war continues, China may invade Taiwan, Iran's nuclear deal result is unknown. Add some giants like NVDA, AMD and MU warnings to this economical climate and please let me know if you can find any positive sign. What is actual driving force of market? It seems taking interest rates and FED actions into consideration leads to contradictory results. So, what is behind all these market moves? What do you think about recent market rally? is it just a bear market rally or real bull run has been started from last major low? What is your idea? Lest share our ideas and boost our knowledge. Eager to hearing your thoughts.
SP:SPX
by SaeedSajedi
49
Here's Why You Should Think Twice Before Selling TechThis is a 2-month chart of the Nasdaq US Composite Index (IXIC). At the bottom is the Stochastic RSI which oscillates up and down depending on how overbought or oversold the market is. There have only been a few times since its inception a half-century ago, that the Nasdaq Composite Index had a 2-month chart this overextended to the downside. The K value of the Stochastic RSI has actually reached zero. If the 2-month chart closes at that level, it will mark a super rare occurrence that has only occurred twice in the history of the Nasdaq (the last time being at the bottom of the Great Recession). I calculated the one-year returns for the Nasdaq one year (from low to high) after the K value of the Stoch RSI on the 2-month time frame dropped below the oversold line (to or nearly to 10). For the case of the Dotcom bust and the Great Recession, I selected the point when the Stoch RSI's K value first reached 0, which is its current reading and which is thus fairly comparable. Even during these significant economic downturns, buying at this oversold level produced decent returns one year out. Obviously, past price action does not guarantee future price action, but history does tend to repeat itself. Odds are that ten years from now you'll probably be wishing you had bought into this oversold level. Here are the one-year returns from the market bottom during the 2M period (when the Stoch RSI K value met the criteria listed above) to the market top of the 2M period one year later: +95.78% +36.47% +31.24% +78.89% +20.17% +69.50% +27.14% +52.36% Mean: +51.44% Not financial advice. As always anything can happen.
TVC:IXIC
by SpyMasterTrades
QQQ - What comes after the FEDYesterday, the FED raised interest rates by 75bps. Yet, despite the sound logic, the market ripped up an astounding 4% leaving many analysts perplexed. Before that, we said the rate hike would be bearish and negatively affect the economy. Additionally, we noted that tighter monetary policies combined with a slowing economy would further weaken the stock market. After the FED decision, we still stick to this narrative. Recapitulation of moves on the day of previous rate hikes: 16th March 2022 = +4.31% 4th May 2022 = +3.44% 15th June 2022 = + 3.63% *values are approximate Meanwhile, despite the enormous magnitude of moves up, the general trend remained to the downside. As a result, we would like to set a new price target for QQQ at 300 USD. Accordingly, we would like to push our invalidation level for the bearish bias 1.2% above the yesterday's close price. Illustration 1.01 The setup we introduced to our audience recently. Yesterday, the index rose approximately 4% from the immediate support/resistance level. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD and Stochastic are bullish. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bullish. ADX contains a relatively low value, indicating a weak or no trend. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Interestingly, after the FED decision, QQQ stopped its price rise 0.01 USD below the invalidation zone (for the bearish bias). Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD performed a bullish crossover but stayed in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame sends mixed signals. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the Nasdaq continuous futures and updated support and resistance levels for the index. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows several technical developments on the daily chart of NQ1!. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
32
Decisive USD level affecting all financial marketsThe graph: TVC:DXY*1000000000000/ECONOMICS:USM2 (without *10000... scales equal to 0 ) DXY - the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. DXY is a key economic and trading value. It's changes impact/reflect values of stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments. M2 (US money supply '2') is closely watched as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of central bank monetary policy. Technical Inference Technical analysis displays strong existing resistance+support lines formed by the blue parallel channel. Numerous touching/turning points in major and minor lines. Considering strong correlation with resistance and support lines, improvement in analysis and trading accuracy may be achieved. DXY/Money Supply 2 had hit its 3rd peak recently. I believe we will see some upside movement in the short-term, with fierce bearish reversal incoming in the long-term, likely at the 1.414(5.277) Fib resistance retest. it Especially since 2002, CCs (correlation coefficients) between DXY/Money Supply and IXIC, SPX, Gold have signified negatively strong correlations. For equities and crypto markets: - short-term bearish movement - long-term bullish For Commodities: - I believe further QE (quantitative easing), increasing the money supply will decrease the US dollars value. Thereby, a weaker dollar means commodities are less expensive in other currencies – this increases demand, and therefore prices for US. Indicators Weekly RSI hit above 70, monthly Macd moving towards its mean. Further resources: F urther images+indicators
TVC:DXY
by Sanzhar_m
Nasdaq Composite dropping. IXICIt is appearing to be doing so along with the other major indices and there is plenty of data to speculate that the drop will continue technically and from a valuation standpoint. How low are we going? No one knows, but we have charted a few goals reasonable to us. A book can be written on how we derive the goals, so we won't bore you now. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
TVC:IXICShort
by Rykin_Capital
NASDAQ Engulfing to down in 30 minutes chartEngulfing candles on Nasdaq at 30 minutes. Artificial Pump is over. I really do not understand how idiotic could people be buying #stonks from companies after their negative earning reports and fed hikes of interest rates. How could one invest into something knowing that it will lose your money. Imminent #bigcursh coming - big companies reporting negative #earnings <=> Markets continue pumping up - #interestrates increased worldwide <=> Markets still continue pumping up - #GDP shrinking <=> Markets continue pumping up more Even a small #BlackSwan and all will crush
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by viparmenia
Nasdaq 100 - Eyes on the FEDRecently, we warned about the impending short-term bounce in the price of QQQ while sticking to our bearish outlook for the medium and long term. Today, we will pay close attention to the Nasdaq 100 index as the FED officials are expected to hike interest rates in the range of 50bps to 75bps. In our opinion, such a move by the central bank will negatively impact the U.S. economy. Higher servicing cost of debt, high rate of inflation, the prospect of global recession, and more economic tightening by central bankers will further weaken the slowing economy. As a result, we are increasingly anxious about the current rally. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the immediate support/resistance with the bullish potential above it and the bearish potential below it. Additionally, we will monitor volume to see if it is sufficient to propel the price higher. For the bullish prospect, we would like to see a further increase in price accompanied by a gradual increase in volume. We introduce the current trade setup in Illustration 1.01. It consists of two alternative scenarios. We will update the idea after the FED meeting. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the current trade setup for the Nasdaq 100 index (continuous futures, NQ1!). Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bullish. MACD is neutral. Stochastic points to the upside but stays in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is slightly bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
12