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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Daily Market Update for 6/13Summary: Markets capitulated in grandiose style with eleven stocks declining for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Both stock and bond prices dropped sharply as worries about inflation grew. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 13, 2022 Facts: -4.68%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 12%, Body: 60% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Everything Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down leads to thick red body and small tiny wick with low closing range Advance/Decline: 0.09, more than eleven stocks decline for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-3.88%), DJI (-2.79%), RUT (-4.76%), VIX (+22.59%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -2.16%) and Financials (XLF -2.98%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -4.81%) and Energy (XLE -5.22%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets capitulated in grandiose style with eleven stocks declining for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Both stock and bond prices dropped sharply as worries about inflation grew. The Nasdaq fell by -4.68% on higher volume than the previous trading day. The index opened with a gap-down for the second day and proceeded to sell off creating a thick red body with a short lower wick. The 60% red body is below a short upper wick created just after the opening. A tiny lower wick was left after a 12% closing range. There were more than eleven stocks that declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did even worse, declining by -4.76%. Both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are more than 30% lower than their all-time-highs. The S&P 500 (SPX) entered a bear market with a -3.88% decline today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.79%. The VIX Volatility Index soared by +22.59%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -2.16%) and Financials (XLF -2.98%) were the best performing but still declined by more than 2%. Real Estate (XLRE -4.81%) and Energy (XLE -5.22%) were at the bottom of the list. The US Dollar Index (DXY) made a new high, rising by +0.97% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply as bonds sold off. The yield curve inverted once again, reflecting the poor outlook analysts have for the near-term economy. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dumped as well and the gap between junk bonds and treasury bonds grew to its widest since 2020. The put/call ratio rose to 1.36. That's the highest closing level since March of 2020. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Extreme Fear. All big six mega-caps fell. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest loss, declining by -7.10%. Apple (AAPL) held up the best but still lost by -3.83%. None of the stocks in the broader mega-cap list gained. Coca-cola (KO) performed the best, declining only -0.11%. Alibaba (BABA) was the biggest loser, declining by -10.31% to land at the bottom of the list. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the Daily Update Growth List, but still declined by -2.58%. Only five stocks on the list declined less than 5%. DraftKings (DKNG) had the biggest loss, declining by -15.80%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get Producer Price Index data tomorrow which is a forward-looking measure of inflation. Producers pass higher prices along to consumers. API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below 11,000 early in the session and continued lower. This is the first close below 11,000 since October 2020. If the index returns to the downward regression trend line from the 6/2 high, that would require a +1.97% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.67% decline. Following the five-day trend line, would result in a -1.61% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Ouch. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Tech Stocks This chart highly suggests that capitulation and peak fear is finally here. This is the chart of SQQQ, which is the inverse derivative of QQQ, which in turn tracks the Nasdaq 100. There's virtually no way that SQQQ's price can sustain a gap up like this on a weekly time frame. The gap is extremely likely to close and the price will move back below the Ichimoku Cloud resistance by the end of the week. Those who are just now selling tech and growth stocks because of inflation are capitulating. Inflation and rate hikes have been evident in the charts for over a year, and it, therefore, makes no sense to just now be selling tech. See my post here for why I believe this is the bottom for tech: With this said, if SQQQ does indeed close the week above the Ichimoku Cloud resistance and EMA exp ribbon then we're looking at a market crash. Statistically, this is highly unlikely to be the case though. The NDTH is far too low for QQQ to break down and crash just now. We are in peak fear/peak inflation/peak capitulation this week. In fact, this is a super good risk-to-reward entry. One can enter TQQQ/QQQ/tech this week and stop out on Friday if support breaks at the weekly close. If support holds, you would have bought in at the absolute bottom. If the Fed hikes rates by 75 bps on Wednesday, it's quite likely that the markets will quickly rally from this low. Not financial advice. Anything can happen. Trends can break.
NASDAQ:SQQQShort
by SpyMasterTrades
Daily Market Update for 6/10Summary: Inflation data came in worse than expected sending stock and bond prices falling. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 10, 2022 Facts: -3.52%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 85% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Gap down, low closing range, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down at open, mostly red body Advance/Decline: 0.18, more than five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.91%), DJI (-2.73%), RUT (-2.73%), VIX (+6.36%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.43%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.84%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation data came in worse than expected sending stock and bond prices falling. The Nasdaq lost -3.52%. Volume was lower than the previous day, but the gap-down and low closing range of 5% represented a broad sell-off where five stocks declined for every advancing stock. The 85% red body left behind a small upper and lower wick. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was hit the worst. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -2.91%, also weighed down by the tech mega-caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both declined by -2.73%. The VIX Volatility index rose by +6.36%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. The defensive sectors of ] Consumer Staples (XLP -0.43%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) held up the best. The growth sectors of Technology (XLK -3.84%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) had the worst declines. The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and gas, rose by 6.0% year-over-year. The expectation was 5.9%. Adding back in food and gas and the CPI rose 8.6% year-over-year compared to the expectation of 8.3%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.2, from the previous level of 58.4. The expectation was 58.0. Consumer Expectations also fell more than expected, coming in at 46.8 compared to the expectation of 54.5. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.85%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. The gap between long-term and short-term yields narrowed sharply. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both declined, giving back all the gains over the past few weeks. Brent Oil fell to $120 a barrel. Timber (WOOD) fell to its lowest point since the end of 2020. Copper and Aluminum Futures were also sharply lower. The put/call ratio ended the day at 1.13, a bearish reading. The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell back toward Extreme Fear but ended the day in the Fear range. All big six mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss, declining by -5.60%. Alphabet (GOOG) had the smallest loss of the six but still declined by -3.04%. Only one mega-cap in the broader list advanced today. Walmart (WMT) closed the day with a +0.56% gain. The biggest loser on the list was Nvidia (NVDA) which declined by 5.95%. JD.com (JD) was the only stock in the Daily Update Growth List that gained on Friday. DocuSign (DOCU) fell by -24.53% after missing earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Investors will be awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday which is expected to by a 50 basis point increase. Oracle (ORCL) will release earnings on Monday after the closing bell. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq gapped down and then hit the daily low in the morning. A rally in the afternoon failed, resulting in a low closing range. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/3 high, that would mean a +1.83% gain for Monday. The five-day and one-day trend lines both point to a +0.26% gain to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Ouch. Inflation data was worse than expected and the worst year-over-year price increases since the early 1980s. Produce Price Index data comes out on Tuesday and that may help ease some fears if it's better than expected. But don't get your hopes up. The real influence will come on Wednesday when the Fed will need to explain how it can control inflation without putting the economy in recession. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
NASDAQ Forming BAT PATTERN !!!!Hello traders! As we have predicted in the previous analysis that #Nasdaq will touch 11500-12000 and look what we have after two days consecutive huge bearish rally! Now at this point Market is touching Its previous low (MAY) Support (i.e. 11824) which is just above its may lowest (i.e. 11487) So now from this point what we looking for! There are two scenarios is current circumstances: 1- Wait for the price to bounce from the support and confirmation of the BAT Pattern and then take a long position & aim for the first target. 2- If price break the support on Monday with huge momentum candle then join the bear army and target the may lowest i.e. 11400-11500. Enjoy your weekend because market gonna give tough time this Monday, considering CPI, Jobless claims & all that news stuff :) Please support us by liking if you agreed with our idea, else let us know in comments about your opinion :) Thank You and Good Luck.
SKILLING:US100Long
by GreedyHarley
Nasdaq 100 - The FOMC threatens further rise of NQ1!Over the past week, the Nasdaq 100 index has been choppy. Meanwhile, the volatility has dropped and many analysts rushed to call the bottom for the stock market. We repeated several times that we do not believe this bullish narrative. Instead, we expressed our belief in the short-lived “bear market rally”. We still maintain this notion and expect the market to continue lower. Therefore, we would like to set a price target for NQ1! to 12 500 USD and 12 250 USD. Fundamental factors We expect the FED to raise interest rates next week, which in turn will put more pressure on the economy. At the same time, we expect economic tightening to further deteriorate the economic situation. As a result, we are bearish on the Nasdaq 100 index and the U.S. economy. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The choppy price action occurs mostly within the neutral zone. We anticipate a breakout to the downside. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. The same applies to MACD. Stochastic oscillates in the bullish area. DM+ and DM- produce whipsaws. ADX suggests the trend is turning neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows a series of false breakouts above the hourly downward sloping channel. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
Daily Market Update for 6/9Summary: Sellers took charge again as investor fears over inflation took hold ahead of the Consumer Price Index data due on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 9, 2022 Facts: -2.75%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 72% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Broad declines on higher volume, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large red body under a medium upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.25, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.38%), DJI (-1.94%), RUT (-2.12%), VIX (+8.89%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -1.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.81%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.67%) and Communications (XLC -3.07%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Sellers took charge again as investor fears over inflation took hold ahead of the Consumer Price Index data due on Friday. The Nasdaq fell by -2.75%, dropping below a channel that formed over the previous eight days. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 72% red body sits under an upper wick that formed in the early morning. The closing range of 1% came as selling accelerated in the late afternoon. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -2.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -2.12%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -1.94%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose by +8.89%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.81%) had the smallest declines. Technology (XLK -2.67%) and Communications (XLC -3.07%) were the worst performers. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 229,000 compared to the expected 210,000. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.74%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Timber (WOOD) declined sharply on Thursday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.823. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 50 from 34.3 the previous week. All big six mega-caps declined and all closed back below their 21d EMA. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, falling by -6.43%. Tesla (TSLA) dropped by only -0.89% but lost gains from an early morning rally. Only two mega-caps in the broader list had gains today. Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD) advanced by +0.87% and +0.78%, respectively. After topping the list for several days in the past week, Alibaba (BABA) dropped to the bottom of the list, declining by -8.13% today. The Daily Update Growth List also had only two gaining stocks. Chewy (CHWY) topped the list with a +2.62% gain. The biggest loser on the list was Block (SQ), which declined by -9.64%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data arrives in the morning before the market opens. After trading starts, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Consumer Expectations data will be released. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Just as I set a new support area at 12,000 on the chart, the Nasdaq fell below the line today breaking lower from an eight-day tight trading range. The index moved below the 12,000 area and closed below the 21d EMA. If the index is to return to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would require a +5.37% gain which is not likely. If we can get back to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +2.32% gain. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that would result in a -1.59%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up All we can do now is wait for the CPI data for May. It could be investors priced in the bad news today because of the inflation warning from the ECB. If the data is higher than expected, we can expect more downward movement. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/8Summary: Indexes finished lower on Wednesday as investors fret over a slowing economy and wait for inflation data to come later this week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 8, 2022 Facts: -0.73%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 18%, Body: 33% Red Good: Higher high and higher low, support above 21d EMA Bad: Closing range, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: A thing red body in the bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 0.63, three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (-1.08%), DJI (-0.81%), RUT (-1.49%), VIX (-0.25%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.22%) and Communications (XLC -0.27%) at the top. Materials (XLB -2.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.40%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes finished lower on Wednesday as investors fret over a slowing economy and wait for inflation data to come later this week. The Nasdaq finished the day -0.73% lower after a morning rally failed. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a long upper wick from the morning rally. The 33% red body sits in the lower half of the candle and results in an 18% closing range. There were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the biggest decline for the day, falling by -1.49%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -1.08% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) retreated by -0.81%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -0.25%. Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.22%) ended the day with gains. Materials (XLB -2.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.40%) were the worst-performing indexes. Crude Oil Inventories rose by 2.025 million barrels. The forecast was for a decline of -1.917 million barrels. The 10y Treasury Note auction sent the yield on the 10y note back above 3%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.21%. The 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Brent Oil rose back above $120, ending the day at $122.65 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.709. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further toward Neutral but remained in the Fear range. Three of the big six mega-caps gained for the day. Tesla (TSLA) led the gains with a +1.25% advance. Amazon (AMZN) led the decliners, losing -1.48% today. Alibaba (BABA) soared +14.67% today, landing at the top of the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Abbot Laboratories (ABT). In the Daily Update Growth List, another Chinese stock followed Alibaba higher. NIU Technologies (NIU) gained +10.67% to land behind Alibaba on the list. At the bottom of the growth list was GrowGeneration (GRWG) which declined by -4.03%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be published at 8:30a on Thursday. Earnings Reports for Thursday include Nio (NIO), DocuSign (DOCU), and Billibili (BILI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq held above the 21d EMA for the past eight sessions, helping to form support at 12,000. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +2.90% gain for Thursday. That's likely out of reach for tomorrow as investors would need positive inflation news on Friday for a rally. If the index continues along the five-day trend line, which is nearly flat, expect a +0.13% gain for Thursday. A continuation of today's one-day trend line would mean a -1.36% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The indexes are forming a nice base over the past eight trading days. Tomorrow will likely continue trading within that range. If we get the right inflation data on Friday, this base could add support for a nice rally. If the opposite happens, we may return to the lows set in May. For the broader economic picture, ask five analysts and you'll get five different answers. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/7Summary: Stocks advanced on Tuesday while more analysts continue to emerge with conflicting messages over the economy. Some say a recession is already here. Others say it's yet to come. Will it be big or small? Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 7, 2022 Facts: +0.94%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 94%, Body: 81% Green Good: High closing range, close above 21d EMA Bad: Dip below 21d EMA on lower low, volume down on gain Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large green body, slightly longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.91, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.95%), DJI (+0.80%), RUT (+1.57%), VIX (-4.19%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.99%) and Industrials (XLI +1.34%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks advanced on Tuesday while more analysts continue to emerge with conflicting messages over the economy. Some say a recession is already here. Others say it's yet to come. Will it be big or small? The Nasdaq rose by +0.94% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has an 81% green body with a 94% closing range. The lower wick is short but formed in a morning dip after a gap-down open. The index rallied most of the day from that point, closing with the gain. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Small-caps outperformed today, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +1.57%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.95% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced by +0.80%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -4.19%. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained, led by Energy (XLE +2.99%) and Industrials (XLI +1.34%). Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) was the only declining sector, led lower by Target which warned of tighter margins due to the need to clear inventories. The Trade Balance for April was at -87.01b, a bit better than the forecast of 89.50b. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 1.845m barrels. The stock was expected to dip by -1.800m barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.08%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield was flat for the day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil remained near, but below $120 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.782. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range but moved toward Neutral. Five of the big six mega-caps gained. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one that declined, falling by -1.43% after Target's message to the market. The biggest gainer was Apple (AAPL) which rose +1.76% after yesterday's announcement of new products to hit the market. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap of the day, gaining +5.36% to end up at the top of the list. Amazon was at the bottom of the list along with only three other mega-caps that declined. All retail: Costco (COST), Home Depot (HD), and Walmart (WMT). Chinese stocks topped the Daily Update Growth list after the Chinese government removed restrictions on some games in the market. Ehang Holdings (EH) was the biggest gainer, rising by +12.18%. The biggest loser on the list was Robinhood (HOOD), which declined by -4.28%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventors will be available in the morning after the market opens. There will be a 10y Note Auction in the afternoon. Campbell Soup (CPB), Five Below (FIVE), and Lovesac (LOVE) are some of the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq briefly dipped below the 21d EMA after the market opened. It quickly recovered and moved back above the key moving average, rallying more in the afternoon to end the day with gains. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +2.11% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line leads to a +1.14% advance. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that points to a -0.51% for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems every day we are getting a new message from corporate America that has a different signal about the market. Today, the message came from Target. They stated that due to an excess of inventory, they will need to increase discounts (lower prices) in order to clear shelves which will reduce margins in the coming quarter(s). Wait, reduce prices? What happened to runaway inflation? There have been plenty of analysts that predicted higher demand was driven by an increase in household inventories during the pandemic, which in turn has caused retailers to increase inventories as to not miss out on sales. That's turning out to be fairly accurate for Target and some other retailers. Demand for these products have dropped since households are no longer purchasing them and now prices need to come down to empty shelves. Of course, that's not all products and services everywhere. Oil will continue to drive transportation costs higher, which will impact prices of consumer products as well. There are still shortages such as the baby formula shortage and some staple foods. But maybe inflation is turning the corner. All eyes will be on the inflation data Friday (In yesterday's update, I incorrectly stated it would be Wednesday). Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq 100 - An indecisive moment for the short-termThe last Friday, the Nasdaq 100 index failed to move below the short-term support at 12 442.50 USD. That highly raises the odds of a bear market rally continuing further. A breakout above the short-term resistance will suggest the index will test the next resistance level at 13 555.25 USD. Despite that, we do not foresee any changes to bearish fundamental factors. Therefore, we have no reason to change our medium and long-term bearish outlook on NQ1!. However, we are indecisive about where the market is headed next in the short term. Therefore, we are very cautious, and we will monitor the price action (and volume) throughout the day. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. MACD is bullish but in bearish territory. Stochastic oscillates in the bullish area. DM+ and DM- are bullish; however, ADX shows the trend is turning neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows the failure of the NQ1! to make a new low below the short-term support. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI points to the upside; however, its bearish structure remains intact. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area. MACD is flattening. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The choppy price action forms the neutral zone between short-term support and short-term resistance. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
5
Daily Market Update for 6/6Summary: Indexes faded from an early morning rally as bond yields rose sharply. Chinese stocks rose on optimism after the Chinese government said they would conclude an investigation into Didi later this week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 6, 2022 Facts: +0.40%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 24%, Body: 58% Red Good: Held above the 21d EMA, volume higher on advance Bad: Lost early morning rally, low closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Large red body in center of equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.72, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.31%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (+0.36%), VIX (+1.13%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.00%) and Materials (XLB +0.95%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.11%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes faded from an early morning rally as bond yields rose sharply. Chinese stocks rose on optimism after the Chinese government said they would conclude an investigation into Didi later this week. The Nasdaq rose by +0.40%, but couldn't hold onto the 2% early-morning gain. Volume was higher than the previous day and the index had a higher low and higher high. The 58% red body sits in the middle of the candle with short upper and lower wicks, ending with a dismal 24% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.36%. The S&P 500 (SPX) moved by +0.31% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) narrowly escaped a loss, gaining only +0.05% today. The VIX Volatility Index ended the day +1.13% higher. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.00%) and Materials (XLB +0.95%) had the best results. Energy (XLE -0.11%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) were the two losing sectors. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Yields all rose sharply as investors anticipate interest rate hikes. That pulled the US Dollar higher as well. The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the day with a +0.24% gain. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved lower tracking along with treasury prices. Brent Oil fell back below $120 a barrel. The put/call ratio ended the day lower at 0.840. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained close to Extreme Fear, but in the Fear region. Five of the big six mega-caps held onto gains. Microsoft (MSFT) was the only one to decline for the day, falling by -0.47% and closing just a smidge below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed with the best gain, climbing by +2.14% for the day. Alibaba (BABA) topped the broader mega-cap list, outperforming along with other Chinese stocks. The stock gained +6.22% today. AstraZeneca (AZN) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, falling by -3.32% today. Two Chinese Fintech stocks topped the Daily Update Growth List. FUTU Holdings and UP Fintech gained +18.56% and +17.44% respectively. Chewy (CHWY) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -3.61% as it gives back some of the massive 25% post-earnings gain last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance data for April. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be published at mid-day. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers come out after the market closes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index started the day with a rally, but then faded through the rest of the day. It still closed above the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +3.10% advance for Tuesday. If it continues along the five-day trend line, then we can expect a +0.29% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -1.79% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Indexes looked poised to start the week with an aggressive rally, but energy faded quickly as Treasury yields soared. The market is waiting for Wednesday's inflation data to determine how hawkish the Fed will be beyond next week's expected 50 bps hike. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/3Summary: An ominous mail from Elon Musk to Tesla management topped the headlines on Friday and certainly dragged down the Nasdaq. However, it was likely the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls that caused wider spread declines. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 3, 2022 Facts: -2.47%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 42% Red Good: Support at 21d EMA, lower volume on decline Bad: Closing Range, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, short body in lower half of candle Advance/Decline: 0.46, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.63%), DJI (-1.05%), RUT (-0.77%), VIX (+2.50%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.32%) and Industrials (XLI -0.39%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.92%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview An ominous mail from Elon Musk to Tesla management topped the headlines on Friday and certainly dragged down the Nasdaq. However, it was likely the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls that caused wider spread declines. The Nasdaq declined -2.47% on lower volume than the previous day. The 23% closing range comes above a tiny lower wick that kept the index above the 21d EMA for the close. The longer upper wick is above a 42% red body. The lower high and higher low mark an inside day. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -1.63%, also impacted by the Tesla turmoil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.05%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) held up well relative to the other indexes, declining only -0.77%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +2.50%. Only one S&P 500 sector, Energy (XLE +1.32%), gained for the day. The other ten declined with the worst losses coming from Technology (XLK -2.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.92%). Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 390,000 in May compared to the forecast of 325,000. The strong performance in the labor market means the Fed needs to worry less about higher interest rates impacting employment. Or at least that's the theory. Services PM and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected for the month of May. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.41%. 30y, 10, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Brent Oil reached $120 per barrel by the end of Friday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.873. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but remained in the Fear range. All big six mega-caps declined. Tesla (TSLA) led the declines with a -9.22% loss after Elon Musk's leaked emails. The CEO of Tesla said he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy and would need to cut 10% of the workforce. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the top mega-cap for the day, rising by +1.45% as oil prices soared again. Tesla was at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth list advanced. Okta (OKTA) was the top gainer after a strong earnings report. Draft Kings (DKNG) fell by -10.80%, landing it at the bottom of the growth list for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Futu (FUTU) will release earnings on Monday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq held above the 21d EMA on an inside day. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +3.47% gain on Monday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.82% gain. If the one-day trend continues, we can expect a -0.68% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Bad news was supposed to be good news on Friday. However, the bad news was supposed to be a weak jobs report, not a panicking CEO. Instead, we go a strong jobs report that means the Fed has more freedom to be hawkish in the second half of the year. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq 100 - Why the downtrend will continue to unravelOver the past few weeks, we have been raising caution about the “bear market rally” in the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Then, yesterday, we warned about the rally's waning volume. We speculated that it was foreshadowing a possible bull trap; and we expressed our expectations of invalidation of the bullish breakouts (ones that pierced above the high from 31st May 2022 and 1st June 2022). Since then, these breakouts became invalidated, and the Nasdaq 100 index declined 2%. At the moment, we monitor the situation and look for an increase in volume, suggesting further growth in selling pressure. Over the course of the year, we expect the Nasdaq 100 to continue its gradual decline toward a new low. Negative fundamental factors We still foresee foes to the rising price of NQ1! among higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening. Accordingly, we expect these developments to weigh on the index throughout 2022. Another development we pay close attention to is the measure of bounces in particular stocks, which are characteristic of the downtrend. Furthermore, we also continue to see institutional players offload their assets while retail investors are on the hunt for stocks at a discount; inflows are also very small compared to their past levels. We expect lay traders to be shaken out of the market once substantial declines start taking place; thus, they will reinforce the selling pressure and drag prices lower. Overall, fundamental factors are very bearish for the U.S. stock market, with the FED set to pursue demand destruction. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. MACD points to the upside, but it remains below the 0 points. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover; we will look for its invalidation in the short term. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for NQ1!. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows recent bullish breakouts and invalidations of them. Retracement of breakouts will be bullish for NQ1!. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic remain bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support/resistance levels. Favorably, we would like to see further confirmation of our thesis by the plunge of NQ1! below the short-term support. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
4
Nasdaq 100 - No healthy signs in the Nasdaq 100 indexIn the previous post, we noted that we would pay attention to the closing price for 1st June 2022. The price closed below the 31st May 2022 low, which hints at the possible resumption of the downtrend. Similarly to yesterday, we will also pay attention to today's closing price. If it closes lower again, it will further bolster the bearish case for NQ1!. Besides that, we still maintain our bearish view on the Nasdaq 100 index and expect it to reverse to the downside soon. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows two possible scenarios for NQ1!; however, we have little faith in the bullish scenario. Instead, we expect NQ1! to start breaking down. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD points to the upside; however, it remains in the bearish territory. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for NQ1!. Illustration 1.02 The retracement below the sloping resistance will confirm the faltering bear market rally; we will pay close attention to it. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
4
Daily Market Update for 6/2Summary: Sentiment turned positive once again on Thursday, but volume was lower as analysts await Friday's employment data to add to a mixed bag of good and bad economic signals this week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 3, 2022 Facts: +2.69%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 89% Green Good: Higher close than Friday, 99% closing range, A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with small lower wick Advance/Decline: 2.17, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.84%), DJI (+1.33%), RUT (+2.31%), VIX (-3.78%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.06%) and Materials (XLB +2.76%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.67%) and Energy (XLE -0.32%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Sentiment turned positive once again on Thursday, but volume was lower as analysts await Friday's employment data to add to a mixed bag of good and bad economic signals this week. The Nasdaq rose by +2.69% and closed higher than last week's high, keeping an uptrend intact. However, the volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has an 89% green body with a small lower wick and a 99% closing range leaving behind no upper wick. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +2.31%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.84%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended with a +1.33% gain. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -3.78%. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.06%) had the biggest advance, followed by Materials (XLB +2.76%). The only declining sector was Energy (XLE -0.32%). ADP Nonfarm Employment change for May showed jobs growing much slower than expected. The market added just 128,000 jobs compared to an expected 300,000. However, Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected for the week. Unit Labor Costs continued to grow in Q1. The change in Crude Oil Inventories showed much higher demand than expected with the balance changing by -5m barrels compared to the forecast of -1.4m barrels. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.78%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both advanced. Brent Oil rose sharply to 117.33 a barrel despite dropping late on Wednesday. Copper Futures also rose sharply, gaining by +3.56% today. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.802. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range but continues to move toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose slightly to 34.33 from 33.19 the week prior. All of the big six mega-caps gained today. Microsoft (MSFT) somehow ended the day with a gain despite dropping by -3% in the premarket after lowering Q4 guidance. Meta (FB) had the biggest gain, advancing by +5.42%. All six closed the day above their 21d EMA lines. Nvidia (NVDA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining 6.94%. Costco (COST) was not far behind, advancing +6.70%. Eli Lilly (LLY) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, falling by -2.78% today. All of the stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today, but there were some big winners. Chewy (CHWY) topped the gains, soaring by +24.22% after beating revenue and earnings estimates. MongoDB (MDB) also beat on the top and bottom line, helping their stock rise by +18.56%. Six of the stocks in the list gained more than 10% and more than half of the list gained more than 5%. The smallest gain was by DoorDash (DASH), which advanced +1.42% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow is employment data Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate for May will be the top metrics for the day. We'll also get the Services PMI and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data for May. DocuSign (DOCU) is in a short list of earnings reports for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq briefly touched the 21d EMA again in the morning, but then gained throughout the day as it headed toward the 50d MA. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that would result in a +3.0% gain. The trend line from the 5/20 low points to a +1.10% gain. Following the five-day trend line would result in a +0.20% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The ADP Jobs data today seems like it would be bad news for the economy. But for those watching the interest rate hikes, it could mean the Fed backs down from further rates later in the year. Whether that turns out to be true is still to be written, but nonetheless is a reason for optimism in the market today. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
NDX JPMorgan: economic hurricane coming our way!Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO: "Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself." Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. I have 2 scenarios: the most optimistic is that NDX formed and inverse head and shoulders chart pattern and it will close the year at the same level that it started it, around $16650. And the worst case scenario is if Jamie Diamon is right and we are going lower after this bounce to the resistance. In this case, the first strong support is $9750. I see that it go lower only if oil stays higher than $140 - 150 for this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:NDX
by TopgOptions
6
Daily Market Update for 6/1Summary: Positive economic data stoked fears that the Fed needs to be more hawkish to slow down an overheated economy and reduce inflation. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 1, 2022 Facts: -0.72%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 28%, Body: 54% Red Good: Closed above the 21d EMA, lower volume on decline Bad: Lower low, closing range below 40% Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Medium red body in center of candle, nearly equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.52, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.75%), DJI (-0.54%), RUT (-0.49%), VIX (-1.91%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.63%) and Utilities (XLU -0.16%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.44%) and Financials (XLF -1.61%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive economic data stoked fears that the Fed needs to be more hawkish to slow down an overheated economy and reduce inflation. The Nasdaq fell by -0.72%, but on lower volume than the previous day. The 54% red body sits in the middle of the candle resulting in a 28% closing range for the day. The outside day has a higher high and a lower low. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell a bit more than the Nasdaq, declining by -0.75%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -0.49%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.54%. Despite the major indexes declining, the VIX Volatility Index dropped by -1.91%, likely helped by the mid-day market rally from the morning lows. Only one of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Energy (XLE +1.63%) is benefiting from both higher demand and higher energy prices. The worst two sectors for today were Health (XLV -1.44%) and Financials (XLF -1.61%). The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May registered at 56.1 compared to the forecast of 54.5. A seemingly bullish reading only stoked fears that economic growth was still too heated. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed more demand than expected with inventories changing by -1.18 million barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the rise again, advancing by +0.75% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose with shorter-term yields climbing faster than longer-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil declined to near $115 a barrel and continued to slide after hours. Aluminum Futures declined by -2.58%, falling to their lowest point this year. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.806. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Fear range as it heads back toward neutral. Three of the big six mega-caps gained today. Amazon (AMZN) led the gains with a +1.23% advance. Meta (FB) has the biggest loss, declining by -2.58% as Sheryl Sandberg announced her departure from the company. Exxon Mobil (XOM) led the mega-cap list, rising by +1.92% as one of only nine mega-caps that ended the day with gains. At the bottom of the list was Alibaba (BABA) which declined -2.78% to just barely beat Meta for the bottom slot. There were only ten advancing stocks in the Daily Update Growth List. Datadog (DDOG) was at the top of the list, gaining +2.21% today. Digital Turbine (APPS) missed earnings estimates and plummeted by -22.61% today, ending up at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead To start the day tomorrow, we'll get the ADP Nonfarm Employment for May, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Unit Labor Costs for Q1. Factory Orders for April and the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will arrive after the market opens. CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU) will report earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped slightly below the 21d EMA before recovering and closing above the key moving average today. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that will meet up with the trend line from the 5/20 low and result in a +3.32% advance. A continuation of the one-day trend line points to a -0.57% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Although last week's rally attempt looks in danger of turning over, the rally is still alive at this point. There could be some profit-taking and repositioning after three very strong days in the market and investors are uncertain about how the Fed will respond to economic data. Or this could turn into more selling as more fear grips the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq 100 - Bear market rally shows loss of momentumThe Nasdaq 100 futures erased some of their early gains. Currently, NQ1! trades around 12 600 USD. We continue to be bearish on the index as we think that the current rally is indeed a “bear market rally”. As a result, we expect the bearish trend of a higher degree to resume and the market to continue toward new lows. Today we will pay attention to the close price. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic flatten. DM+ and DM- failed to produce bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 We will watch today's close price. If it is above yesterday's close price, it will be a bullish sign; however, if the NQ1! closes below yesterday's close price, then that will hint at the possible deterioration of the rally's momentum Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:NDQShort
by Tradersweekly
4
Daily Market Update for 5/31Summary: The sentiment was mixed on the last day of trading for the month of May with some warning that the current rally will be short-lived. The shifting sentiment caused indexes to chop up and down throughout the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 31, 2022 Facts: -0.41%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 56%, Body: 23% Red Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold onto gain, decline on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thin red body in top half of candle Advance/Decline: 0.55, almost two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.63%), DJI (-0.67%), RUT (-1.26%), VIX (+1.83%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.51%) and Communications (XLC -0.07%) at the top. Energy (XLE -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.52%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The sentiment was mixed on the last day of trading for the month of May with some warning that the current rally will be short-lived The shifting sentiment caused indexes to chop up and down throughout the day. The Nasdaq ended the day with a -0.41% decline. A dip in the opening minutes created a long lower wick, after which the index rallied to find a higher high than the previous day. Three late afternoon reversals resulted in a short upper wick and a thin red body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range of 56% isn't bad but nearly two stocks declined for every advancing stock and volume was much higher than the previous day. Small caps were the most volatile today, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -1.26%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.63% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.67%. The VIX Volatility Index gained by +1.83%. Only one of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.51%) was helped higher by better than expected Consumer Confidence. At the bottom of the sector list were Energy (XLE -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.52%). Consumer Confidence was lower than the previous month but higher than the forecast. It came in at 106.4 compared to an expectation of 103.9. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May was also higher than expected at 60.3 compared to the forecast of 55.0. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.41%. The 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined after sharply rising for several days. Brent Oil topped 115 again over the weekend, ending today at 115.74. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.816. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Extreme Fear but is moving toward Neutral. Of the big six mega-caps, Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day with gains, holding onto a +4.40% and +1.10% advanced, respectively. Apple (AAPL) had the biggest decline of the six, losing -0.53% today. Amazon was the top overall mega-cap as well, followed by Alibaba (BABA) which gained +2.83%. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Eli Lilly which fell by -3.10%. The top seven stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were all Chinese companies. Ehang Holdings (EH) led the gains with a +5.44% advance, getting a boost from their earnings release in the morning. At the bottom of the list was Snap Inc. (SNAP), which declined by -9.44%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The ISM Manufacturing Employment and Purchasing Manager Index data for May will be delivered tomorrow after the market opens. We will also get the JOLTs Job Openings report for April. Two FOMC Members (Williams and Bullard) are scheduled to speak ahead of Beige Books being published in the afternoon. Williams tends to be on the more dovish side of the group while Bullard tends to be on the hawkish side. Hewlett Packard (HPE), MongoDB (MDB), NetApp (NTAP), Chewy (CHWY), and GameStop (GME) are among the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance In the morning dip, the index did get support at the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a big +3.68% gain for Wednesday. A more likely advance would be the one-day trend line which meets up with the trend line from the 5/20 low. That would result in a +1.70% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We have a mix of sentiment in the market right now with some seeing a bullish turn for the better while others remain bearish and see a very short timeline for the current rally. The key will be whether the indexes can hold support levels and whether leading stocks can break out and hold onto gains. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq 100 - The case for a "bear market rally"In our previous post, we warned about the bear market rally. Since then, the Nasdaq 100 index has reversed to the upside and continues to climb. Most titles within the U.S. stock market have rallied hard so far; however, in our opinion, these massive moves are not characteristic of a healthy market. Instead, they are indicative of the bear market. At the same time, we do not expect bearish fundamental factors like the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening to change in the next quarter. Therefore, we predict further deterioration of the financial situation and lower prices for the stock market (from the current levels). We do not know how high will the bear market rally go; however, we have very little faith that the bottom is in for the stock market. Illustration 1.01 In our previous idea, we noted that the breakout above the sloping resistance indicated by the yellow line would be bullish; indeed, we said that it could potentially mark the beginning of the bear market rally. Since then, the Nasdaq 100 index has gained approximately 5%. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bullish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform bullish crossover, which could bolster a rally further; however, failure will foreshadow the return of selling pressure. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.02 On the weekly chart, NQ1! retraces towards its 20-day SMA (acts as a correction of the downtrend - similarly like on the daily time frame). Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are turning neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
2
Daily Market Update for 5/27Summary: Investors continued to pile in as analysts see the Fed at its peak hawkish level and expect less aggressive moves later in the year. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 27, 2022 Facts: +3.33%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 95% Green Good: 100% closing range, higher volume on green day Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.87, almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.47%), DJI (+1.76%), RUT (+2.70%), VIX (-6.47%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.43%) and Technology (XLK +3.38%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +1.56%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.16%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors continued to pile in as analysts see the Fed at its peak hawkish level and expect less aggressive moves later in the year. The Nasdaq gained +3.33% and closed its first green week since March. Volume was higher than the previous day as the index opened with a gap up and closed with a 100% closing range. The 95% green body has a small lower wick that formed just after opening and then the index moves steadily upward the rest of the day. There were almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +2.70%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +2.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.76%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -6.47%. All eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors gained. Growth sectors led the charge upward. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.43%) and Technology (XLK +3.38%) were the best two sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.56%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.16%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Personal Spending was higher than expected while PCE Price Index data was on par with the forecast. However, Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for May were lower than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) index continued its retreat, lowering by -0.12% on Friday. The 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond prices continued to climb. The gap between high yield corporate bonds and short-term treasury bonds narrowed sharply after widening throughout May. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.706. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward Neutral but is still in Extreme Fear. The big six mega-caps all had spectacular days. Tesla (TSLA) led the pack for another day, gaining +7.33%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) were able to close above their 21d EMA lines. Meta (FB) had the smallest gain but still advanced +1.83% to close just below its 21d EMA. Tesla was the top overall mega-cap as well. Alibaba (BABA) gave back some of the huge gains it had on Thursday, declining by -1.13% and ending up at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Zscaler (ZS) popped to the top of the Daily Update Growth List after beating earnings and revenue estimates. There were only two declining stocks on the list. Workday (WDAY) missed estimates in its earnings release and closed down by -5.57%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed in the US on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. The Chicago PMI for May will arrive on Tuesday morning followed by the CB Consumer Confidence number for May. Salesforce.com (CRM), HP Inc (HPQ), StoneCo (STNE), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Ehang (EH) will report earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA for the first time since April. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +1.02% advance on Tuesday. If the index slows and returns to the five-day trend line or the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a -0.08% decline. Not too bad. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are several things that are looking very good. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped below 40 last week while the CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Extreme Greed. Both often signal a near-term bottom is here. Then the Fed's meeting minutes this week confirmed that the Fed will frontload interest rate hikes and be less aggressive in the fall. That brought optimism for growth back into the market, evidenced by broad gains across equities and a sudden advance in corporate bond prices relative to treasuries. We finally had a positive week after a very long weekly losing streak. Let's see if optimism and confidence continue to grow and whether investors move off the sidelines and get back in the game. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/26Summary: Indexes rose higher on Thursday, led by retail after several companies rose their guidance for the near. That came on top of easing concerns over an over-aggressive Fed. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 26, 2022 Facts: +2.68%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 86%, Body: 85% Green Good: Higher high, low and close on better volume. Strong A/D ratio. Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a small upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.07, two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.99%), DJI (+1.61%), RUT (+2.17%), VIX (-3.07%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +4.90%) and Communications (XLC +2.43%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.28%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.11%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes rose higher on Thursday, led by retail after several companies rose their guidance for the near. That came on top of easing concerns over an over-aggressive Fed. The Nasdaq closed up by +2.68% on higher volume than the previous day. The 85% green body sits above a barely visible lower wick, resulting in an 86% closing range. The small upper wick formed as a flurry of buying subsided mid-day. Still, bulls held prices higher thru the rest of the day and there were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the next best index, advancing by +2.17% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.99% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +1.61%. The VIX Volatility index fell by -3.07%. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +4.90%) led thanks to the positive news from retail giants. Communications (XLC +2.43%) was the second-best, followed by Technology (XLK +2.40%). Utilities (XLU +0.28%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.11%) were at the bottom of the list. Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected, coming in at 210,000 compared to a forecast of 215,000. That was a positive, but Pending Home Sales for April were lower than the forecast, dropping by -3.9% month-over-month compared to the forecast of -2.0%. The big news was upgraded annual guidance from Macy's, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree during their earnings reports in the morning. That sent consumer discretionary stocks soaring. The positive sentiment came on top of relief that the Fed would front-load interest rate hikes in summer and cool off in fall. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by -0.31%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields were higher while the 2y yield was lower. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices have increased sharply over the last three days. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose slightly today after a sharp increase yesterday. The spread between corporate junk bonds and short-term treasuries tightened significantly. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.818. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but remained well in the Extreme Fear zone. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index rose to 33.19 after dipping to 19.51 last week. A value lower than 20 often signals at least a short-term bottom in the market. All big-six mega-caps gained today. Tesla (TSLA) led the way with a +7.43% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest gain but still climbed +1.29% on top of a good uptrend the last three days. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, soaring by +14.79% today. Only six mega-caps declined. Merck (MRK) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -1.54% decline. Fastly (FSLY) topped the Daily Update Growth List (behind Alibaba which is also on the list). Fastly gained +10.85%. Snowflake (SNOW) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -4.50%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring the PCE Price Index data, another measure of inflation. Investors will be looking for any signal of a top for inflation. We will also get Person Spending and Retail Inventories for April. After the market opens, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations data for May will be released. Pinduoduo (PDD), Big Lots (BIG), and Up Fintech (TIGR) are among some of the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a move back toward the 21d EMA but fell short of crossing the line. If the one-day trend continues, that could mean a +1.96% gain for Friday and a move back above the key moving average line. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.22% decline. Given the follow-thru day today, I'm also moving the longer-term trend line to the 5/20 bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today's move was very positive for investors. We had a solid move higher on better volume than the previous day. The gains were shared broadly across the market. The next test is for the index to close above the 21d EMA, followed by taking out a few support/resistance areas. Caution is still warranted until more charts of our favorite stocks begin to show health signals. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321