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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Daily Market Update for 5/27Summary: Investors continued to pile in as analysts see the Fed at its peak hawkish level and expect less aggressive moves later in the year. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 27, 2022 Facts: +3.33%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 95% Green Good: 100% closing range, higher volume on green day Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.87, almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.47%), DJI (+1.76%), RUT (+2.70%), VIX (-6.47%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.43%) and Technology (XLK +3.38%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +1.56%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.16%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors continued to pile in as analysts see the Fed at its peak hawkish level and expect less aggressive moves later in the year. The Nasdaq gained +3.33% and closed its first green week since March. Volume was higher than the previous day as the index opened with a gap up and closed with a 100% closing range. The 95% green body has a small lower wick that formed just after opening and then the index moves steadily upward the rest of the day. There were almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +2.70%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +2.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.76%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -6.47%. All eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors gained. Growth sectors led the charge upward. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.43%) and Technology (XLK +3.38%) were the best two sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.56%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.16%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Personal Spending was higher than expected while PCE Price Index data was on par with the forecast. However, Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for May were lower than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) index continued its retreat, lowering by -0.12% on Friday. The 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond prices continued to climb. The gap between high yield corporate bonds and short-term treasury bonds narrowed sharply after widening throughout May. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.706. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward Neutral but is still in Extreme Fear. The big six mega-caps all had spectacular days. Tesla (TSLA) led the pack for another day, gaining +7.33%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) were able to close above their 21d EMA lines. Meta (FB) had the smallest gain but still advanced +1.83% to close just below its 21d EMA. Tesla was the top overall mega-cap as well. Alibaba (BABA) gave back some of the huge gains it had on Thursday, declining by -1.13% and ending up at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Zscaler (ZS) popped to the top of the Daily Update Growth List after beating earnings and revenue estimates. There were only two declining stocks on the list. Workday (WDAY) missed estimates in its earnings release and closed down by -5.57%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed in the US on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. The Chicago PMI for May will arrive on Tuesday morning followed by the CB Consumer Confidence number for May. Salesforce.com (CRM), HP Inc (HPQ), StoneCo (STNE), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Ehang (EH) will report earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA for the first time since April. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +1.02% advance on Tuesday. If the index slows and returns to the five-day trend line or the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a -0.08% decline. Not too bad. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are several things that are looking very good. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped below 40 last week while the CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Extreme Greed. Both often signal a near-term bottom is here. Then the Fed's meeting minutes this week confirmed that the Fed will frontload interest rate hikes and be less aggressive in the fall. That brought optimism for growth back into the market, evidenced by broad gains across equities and a sudden advance in corporate bond prices relative to treasuries. We finally had a positive week after a very long weekly losing streak. Let's see if optimism and confidence continue to grow and whether investors move off the sidelines and get back in the game. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/26Summary: Indexes rose higher on Thursday, led by retail after several companies rose their guidance for the near. That came on top of easing concerns over an over-aggressive Fed. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 26, 2022 Facts: +2.68%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 86%, Body: 85% Green Good: Higher high, low and close on better volume. Strong A/D ratio. Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a small upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.07, two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.99%), DJI (+1.61%), RUT (+2.17%), VIX (-3.07%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +4.90%) and Communications (XLC +2.43%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.28%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.11%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes rose higher on Thursday, led by retail after several companies rose their guidance for the near. That came on top of easing concerns over an over-aggressive Fed. The Nasdaq closed up by +2.68% on higher volume than the previous day. The 85% green body sits above a barely visible lower wick, resulting in an 86% closing range. The small upper wick formed as a flurry of buying subsided mid-day. Still, bulls held prices higher thru the rest of the day and there were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the next best index, advancing by +2.17% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.99% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +1.61%. The VIX Volatility index fell by -3.07%. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +4.90%) led thanks to the positive news from retail giants. Communications (XLC +2.43%) was the second-best, followed by Technology (XLK +2.40%). Utilities (XLU +0.28%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.11%) were at the bottom of the list. Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected, coming in at 210,000 compared to a forecast of 215,000. That was a positive, but Pending Home Sales for April were lower than the forecast, dropping by -3.9% month-over-month compared to the forecast of -2.0%. The big news was upgraded annual guidance from Macy's, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree during their earnings reports in the morning. That sent consumer discretionary stocks soaring. The positive sentiment came on top of relief that the Fed would front-load interest rate hikes in summer and cool off in fall. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by -0.31%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields were higher while the 2y yield was lower. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices have increased sharply over the last three days. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose slightly today after a sharp increase yesterday. The spread between corporate junk bonds and short-term treasuries tightened significantly. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.818. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but remained well in the Extreme Fear zone. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index rose to 33.19 after dipping to 19.51 last week. A value lower than 20 often signals at least a short-term bottom in the market. All big-six mega-caps gained today. Tesla (TSLA) led the way with a +7.43% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest gain but still climbed +1.29% on top of a good uptrend the last three days. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, soaring by +14.79% today. Only six mega-caps declined. Merck (MRK) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -1.54% decline. Fastly (FSLY) topped the Daily Update Growth List (behind Alibaba which is also on the list). Fastly gained +10.85%. Snowflake (SNOW) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -4.50%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring the PCE Price Index data, another measure of inflation. Investors will be looking for any signal of a top for inflation. We will also get Person Spending and Retail Inventories for April. After the market opens, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations data for May will be released. Pinduoduo (PDD), Big Lots (BIG), and Up Fintech (TIGR) are among some of the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a move back toward the 21d EMA but fell short of crossing the line. If the one-day trend continues, that could mean a +1.96% gain for Friday and a move back above the key moving average line. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.22% decline. Given the follow-thru day today, I'm also moving the longer-term trend line to the 5/20 bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today's move was very positive for investors. We had a solid move higher on better volume than the previous day. The gains were shared broadly across the market. The next test is for the index to close above the 21d EMA, followed by taking out a few support/resistance areas. Caution is still warranted until more charts of our favorite stocks begin to show health signals. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq finds support on base lineA single line (the Ichimoku base line) on the QQQ monthly chart tells you a lot. It has held QQQ as support for over ten years. With the NDTH dipping to nearly 10 a few days ago, and with the SQQQ derivative markets reaching insanely overbought levels, all charts are confirming that a major bottom has just formed. If you're still short in QQQ or tech, you may want to start taking profit. There's little statistical probability that QQQ will drop much below this base line for the time being. Tech and growth stocks are largely inversely correlated to interest rates. With inflation expectations cooling and therefore the pressure to raise interest rates, tech and growth consequently will rebound. With this said there is a bear case to be made: the QQQ/SPY outperformance trendline is breaking down. Unless QQQ jumps rapidly, or SPY breaks down, before the close of the month, the steepest QQQ/SPY trendline will have been breached. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SpyMasterTrades
4
Bearish breakdown for MSFT on the Fibonacci Bollinger BandThe monthly chart for Microsoft (MSFT) shows a breakdown below the upper band (red line) of the Fibonacci Bollinger Bands (FBB) indicator. While it is likely that MSFT will bounce for the time being, as inflation worries cool and tech stocks attempt a rally, the upper band will likely act as resistance. If the price rebounds it might be hard to sustain a breakout above $300. While I like MSFT as much as anyone else, the charts do not lie. The chart is showing that there is a long-term mean reversion occurring in the price of MSFT. The white line is the standard deviation basis for the monthly chart which reflects the downside potential. It's quite steep and the yearly oscillators are saying MSFT is primed to correct down to this level. All of this will unfold slowly (months to years) and fakeouts might trap some bulls. Is your MSFT position prepared for a worst-case scenario reversion to the mean? Trade wisely. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by SpyMasterTrades
3
Nasdaq 100 - The market is undecided about where to go nextThe Nasdaq 100 index showed some relief yesterday after plunging on the FOMC minutes announcement. However, after the market close, the Nasdaq index gave up almost all of its gains in a flash crash. The price action has been choppy over the past week, and the market seems undecided about where to go next. We remain bearish and expect the downtrend to unravel further in the coming month. However, after more than six weeks of selling, the market strives to find some relief; therefore, we are on the lookout for a bear market rally. Although, we voice caution that this is nothing unexceptional in the bear market, and we may see the continuation of selling into this and the following week. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the sloping resistance and the downward sloping channel in which NQ1! appears. Our price target for NQ1! stays at 11 500 USD; a breakout above the sloping resistance in the Illustration 1.01 would force us to abandon our short-term price target. Illustration 1.01 The picture above portrays alternative scenarios for the Nasdaq 100 index. A breakout above the sloping resistance will imply bullishness; however, we voice caution as it could potentionally end up as another bull trap. Moreover, anxiety among market participants remains highly elevated as retail investors continue to buy dips and institutional players sell their assets. As a result, we expect the volatility to stay persistent in the coming month. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- stay bearish, and ADX remains elevated. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 The picture shows a downward sloping channel indicated by yellow dashed parallels. Breakout below the channel is bearish and increases the index's odds of a flash crash. We will pay close attention to the price and whether it will manage to stay above the channel. If not, it will imply more selling pressure. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
9
Nasdaq 100 - An opening gap, high anxiety and more downsideOvernight, the Nasdaq continuous futures opened 1.6% lower. As a result, NQ1! erased its gains from the prior trading session; this development hints at elevated anxiety among market participants, who are eager to take profits off the table as soon as possible. The opening gap pushes the odds to the downside for the stock market. Additionally, we foresee the same pressure from higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening around the globe. Therefore, we stay adamant in our bearish stance on the Nasdaq 100 index. Accordingly, we would like to set new price targets for NQ1! to 11 750 USD and 11 500 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the opening gap on NQ1!. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM–. The ADX shows no signs of weakening, which suggests that the bearish trend is still present and strong. Overall, the daily time frame remains bearish for NQ1!. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows seven weeks of selling in the Nasdaq 100 index, which leaves many traders asking whether the bear market rally will be seen on the horizon soon. We start to notice the first oversold signs on the weekly time frame, which raises caution. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI reached oversold condition. Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX continues to increase. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
4
Daily Market Update for 5/24Summary: Snap Inc. sent an ominous signal to the market by reducing guidance, causing tech and growth stocks to sell off heavily in the morning before recovering some of the losses. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 24, 2022 Facts: -2.35%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 66%, Body: 24% Red Good: Good closing range over long lower wick Bad: Lower high, lower low, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper part of candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.3, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.81%), DJI (+0.15%), RUT (-1.56%), VIX (+3.41%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +2.00%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.64%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.57%) and Communications (XLC -3.55%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Snap Inc. sent an ominous signal to the market by reducing guidance, causing tech and growth stocks to sell off heavily in the morning before recovering some of the losses. The Nasdaq fell by -2.35% on higher volume than the previous day. The long lower wick was created at open as key economic metrics missed the forecast. However, the index recovered some of the loss and closed with a 66% closing range. The 24% red body sits at the top of the candle. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was able to finish the day with a gain, advancing +0.15%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.81%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.56%. The VIX Volatility Index increased by +3.41%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained, led by defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +2.00%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.64%) were at the top of the list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.57%) and Communications (XLC -3.55%) were at the bottom, with the former being impacted by Snap's news. Manufacturing PMI data for May met the forecast of 57.5 but the Services PMI fell short, coming in at 53.5 compared to the forecast of 5.2. The PMI data is a signal of economic activity within these two sectors. New Home Sales for April also came in lower than expected. There were only 591,000 new home sales compared to the forecast of 750,000. The previous month was 709,000. The new number shows a significant slowdown. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to decline, dropping by -0.32% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields were all lower. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were higher, tracking with treasury prices. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.903. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the Extreme Fear range. All of the big six mega-caps declined, with Facebook (FB) dropping the most, losing -7.62% today. Microsoft (MSFT) held up the best, declining only -0.40%. Verizon (VZ) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.03%. Consumer Staples and Health mega-caps dominated the rest of the top ten. Facebook was at the bottom of the list, followed by Tesla (TSLA) which fell by -6.93%. There was only one gainer in the Daily Update Growth List. Zoom Video (ZM) climbed by +5.61% as its earnings report showed continued growth despite the winding down of the pandemic. After Zoom Video, all the stocks on the growth list fell by more than 2%. Five stocks on the list fell more than 10%, led by Snap Inc (SNAP) which dropped by a huge -43.08%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday will kick off with the Core Durable Goods Orders data for April. After the market opens we will get the Crude Oil Inventories. The FOMC Meeting Minutes from the early May meeting will be available in the afternoon. Nvidia (NVDA), Trip.com (TCOM), and Box Inc (BOX) are a few of the earnings reports for Wednesday. I mistakenly -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued its downtrend but held above Friday's low. After the dip in the morning, the index trended higher the rest of the day. If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, we can expect a +0.69% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.07% decline. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would mean a -2.56% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Snap's message of lower guidance due to economic disruptions drove even more fear among investors in tech and growth stocks, resulting in today's sell-off. The bleeding continues, and the only question is when will it stop. Perhaps we will continue to bounce around at this level, or maybe we will move lower. If we can start to see indications of a top to inflation, that will help build more support for gains. Inflation needs to come under control without massive interest rate hikes that will further slow down growth. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/23Summary: Stocks rallied on Monday thanks to a stronger Euro after the European Central Bank said rate hikes would come later this year. Notes I've been traveling for the past two weeks and have not been able to write the Daily Market Update. I'm back at home and will continue covering the markets as often as I can. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 23, 2022 Facts: +1.59%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 56% Green Good: High closing range Bad: Lower volume on gain, lower high than previous day Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, upper half green body, lower half wick Advance/Decline: 1.07, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.86%), DJI (+1.98%), RUT (+1.10%), VIX (-3.23%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +3.25%) and Energy (XLE +2.64%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.88%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.75%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks rallied on Monday thanks to a stronger Euro after the European Central Bank said rate hikes would come later this year. The Nasdaq rose by +1.59% for the day, but it was not enough to reach the previous day's high. The inside day came with lower volume, but the closing range of 93% and 56% green body in the upper half of the candle is positive. There was a nearly equal number of advancing and declining stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) outperformed the other indexes, gaining by +1.98% while the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced by +1.86%. The Russel 2000 (RUT) climbed by +1.10%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -3.23% but remained elevated as it has been since the beginning of May. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Financials (XLF +3.25%) and Energy (XLE +2.64%) were the best two sectors for today. Health (XLV +0.88%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.75%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by -0.91% and is down 2.5% from its peak in early May. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices moved higher while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Copper and Aluminum Futures continued to rise. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.829. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range. Five of the big six mega-caps advanced. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one to decline but fell just -0.03%. Apple (AAPL) had the biggest gain, advancing +4.01%, followed by Microsoft which moved up by +3.20%. All six have work to do before getting back to their key moving average lines. Financial stocks topped the broader mega-cap list. JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) were the top gainers, advancing +6.19% and +5.94% respectively. Broadcom (AVGO) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -3.10%. There were only four mega-caps that declined. The Daily Update Growth List had some gainers, but overall more than half of the list declined. DoorDash (DASH) topped the list with a +2.39% gain. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest loss, declining by -6.13%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Purchasing Manager Index data for May will be available after the market opens tomorrow. That includes Manufacturing, Services, and Composite measurements. We will also get New Home Sales data for April. Nvidia (NVDA), Trip.com (TCOM), and Box Inc (BOX) are a few of the earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Although the day ended with positive gains, the lower high means the index is still in a down trend. If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a +1.33% gain for Tuesday. If the index returns to the five-day trend line and or the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would result in a -3.86% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been a wild few weeks. Part of me is happy I was on break and didn't report daily. Part of me thinks there was much to learn from the market data and could have benefited. Let's hope for some new highs throughout this week and some gains on higher volume, shared broadly across the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Nasdaq Extremely OversoldThis is a side-by-side comparison of the Nasdaq daily chart from March 2009 with today (May 2022). The charts are looking very similar to one another. The heatmap on the daily chart has not been this cold since the bottom of the Great Recession. The daily plot is nearing a record low. While this daily chart cannot make long term predictions, it suggests that we are at a bottom right now and the Nasdaq is about to move back up for the coming weeks to months.
TVC:IXICLong
by SpyMasterTrades
Nasdaq 100 - A potential bull trap in the futures market?The Nasdaq 100 index showed some relief yesterday and made a higher high since its low on 19th May 2022. However, smaller time frames suggest that the willingness of market participants to buy at rising prices diminishes. Therefore, this leaves us to speculate whether the Nasdaq 100 index is getting positioned for another leg down. At the same time, the daily volume continues to increase which is bearish; also because of that, we still remain bearish on the index and expect it to make new lows. Because of that, we would like to set a new short-term price target for NQ1! at 12 000 USD and a medium-term price target at 11 900 USD (due to become short-term after 12 000 USD is taken out). Our price targets for QQQ remain at 285 USD and 280 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows a bull trap we pointed out just a few hours before the market sold off more than 5%. We notice similarities in the prior and the current developments, which prompted us to our speculation about another “bull trap”. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSIs bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Meanwhile, ADX increases. Overall, the daily time frame remains bearish. Illustration 1.02 Simple moving averages are bearish. Additionally, we pay close attention to the area below the lower bound of the channel. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the intact sloping resistance. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
4
Nasdaq - Channel has been broken, a possible downfall to follow!Yesterday, we stated that the rally was due to end and the bearish trend to resume. Then, a few hours later, the Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 5%. In the aftermarket, the selling continued; and in the early hours of futures trading, Nasdaq futures sold off as well. Then, the index (continuous futures - NQ1!) erased some of its losses and turned positive. At the moment, NQ1! trades around 11 920 USD. We expect a little bit of relief ahead of the U.S. market opening; however, our stance remains bearish, and we expect new lows in the Nasdaq 100 index. Therefore, we would like to set a new short-term price target for QQQ at 285 USD and the medium-term price target at 280 USD (it will become the short-term price target after hitting 285 USD). We think what highlights yesterday's selloff is that no significant headlines were made in the news, and despite that, the stock market fell by an astounding amount. Market participants can observe that anxiety and fear are extremely high, which leads to strong price actions to the upside. However, these bounces tend to last shortly and are quickly followed by massive selloffs. These are particular signs of the bear market. In addition to that, we would like to note the downward moving channel has been broken yesterday - which we expect to culminate in the acceleration of the selling pressure. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows NQ1! (Nasdaq continuous futures). It can be observed that buyers did not manage to push the price through the sloping resistance; a breakdown in the price of the index followed. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish again. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. A move up by the ADX suggests that the bearish trend has resumed. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
6
Nasdaq100 MAKE it or BREAK it After seven weeks of downward movement in the Nasdaq100 losing more than 22% it closed this week at 11835 points, it is now near to test the 200EMA at 11362 points (red line) for the first time since 2020 pandemic sell-off and that’s the last major support on the medium term and historically the 200EMA is the strongest support in the uptrend, so we have two scenarios now first one is to rebound from here like what happened in 2018 and 2020 with aggressive buyers and huge volumes signaling a clear control for the buyers, in this case, investors are advised to wait till the first confirmation and reenter the market and accumulate long positions and to close all short positions. The second scenario is to penetrate this level to the downside to break the 200EMA for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008 and accordingly that will break the uptrend in the medium term and enter a downtrend market controlled by Bears, in this case, investors are advised to close all the long positions and keep as much cash as they can using maximum 30% of the cash to open short positions till the confirmation of the market direction or any appearance of reversal signs. NASDAQ:NDX TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:SQQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:PSQ
TVC:NDQ
by IsmailAbdulMeguid
2
The curious case of a massive Bull Rally in all marketsThis is not a crypto analysis , I have more holdings in stock market than in crypto so that's what I care about. But the curious case here is the situation in BTC long contracts. It's at a historical high , so high that the indicators at the bottom have no place to go anymore and they are all signaling a downturn in these long contracts. SO why does this matter? Because since July 2021 the BTC market is almost 1:1 correlated with stock market. That is because with mining power leaving China the crypto domination now are in the hands of the USA or Wall Street to a certain degree. The biggest investors of crypto are big funds and VCs in the US and they are dictating the price. And since then, this particular BTC Long contract chart is in a negative correlation with the stock market. As we have come to an end in this massive rise in long contracts what will happen next is a big upwards move in BTC, SPX and NDX. At this point no rhetoric about recession, interest rates, war, uncertainty etc. won't matter. This is like seasons, spring will come no matter what. And here it is!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGSLong
by Kryptolinks
3
Nasdaq 100 - A correction is moving towards its endWe continue to be bearish on QQQ even despite the current bounce in price (correction). Indeed, we think that the current pricing is attractive for (re)entry of short position. Since all our price targets were hit before the rally; therefore, we would like to set a new short-term price target for QQQ at 300 USD. We would also want to set a medium-term price target of 290 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows short-term support levels as well as relief from the selling pressure. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
8
Nasdaq 100 - Dip buyers about to get obliterated Yesterday, Nasdaq 100 pushed above the immediate resistance we hinted at in our latest post on QQQ. We think the rally is due to end and the bearish trend to resume. Therefore, we would like to set a new short-term price target for NQ1! at 12 250 USD. We would also like to set a medium-term price target at 12 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows yesterday's bullish breakout on the hourly chart. In our opinion, this is potentionally a perfect bull trap. Although, we will pay close attention to the price action of NQ1!; if it manages to break above the immediate resistance then it is likely that NQ1! might experience the last push higher before faltering. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI points to the upside, which is bullish; however, we expect it to break down and turn bearish soon (the same applies to other mentioned indicators). MACD strives for a bullish crossover. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- remain bearish, while ADX signals a pause in selling pressure. Overall, the daily time frame shows less bearish conditions than a week ago; although, we still maintain a notion that the current bounce in price is just a “downtrend” rally. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of QQQ. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD remain bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- signal the presence of a bearish trend. ADX grows which suggests that the bearish trend has not peaked. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
2