IYR
IYR, or the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (Bullish)IYR, or the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF, is an investment fund that seeks to track the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. The fund is designed to provide exposure to the real estate sector in the United States by investing in companies that own and manage real estate, such as real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other real estate companies.
IYR was launched on June 12, 2000, and is managed by BlackRock Fund Advisors. It is traded on the NYSE Arca exchange under the ticker symbol IYR.
Investment Objective and Strategy:
The investment objective of IYR is to seek investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. The index is comprised of companies that are primarily engaged in the ownership, development, and management of real estate located in the United States.
IYR seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing at least 90% of its assets in the securities included in the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. The fund may also invest in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and other derivatives, as well as in cash and cash equivalents.
Index Composition and Rebalancing:
The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index consists of companies that are classified as real estate companies according to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The index is weighted based on market capitalization, with larger companies representing a higher percentage of the index.
The index is reviewed annually in September, with any changes taking effect at the end of that month. The index is also rebalanced quarterly to ensure that it continues to accurately represent the real estate sector.
Fees and Expenses:
IYR charges an expense ratio of 0.41%, which is relatively low compared to other real estate ETFs. This means that investors will pay $4.10 in fees for every $1,000 invested in the fund.
Risks and Considerations:
As with any investment, there are risks associated with investing in IYR. These risks include market risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. Additionally, because IYR is a passively managed fund, it may not perform as well as actively managed funds that have the ability to make investment decisions based on market conditions and other factors.
Investors should carefully consider these risks before investing in IYR, and should consult with a financial advisor if they have any questions or concerns.
Conclusion:
IYR is an investment fund that seeks to provide exposure to the real estate sector in the United States. It invests in companies that own and manage real estate, and seeks to track the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. Investors should carefully consider the risks and expenses associated with IYR before investing, and should consult with a financial advisor if they have any questions or concerns.
$COR: A CORE Position For A Deflationary Environment?Real Estate has seen some specific winners starting to emerge, however, as the Fed soon begins the tightening process, is it possible we still see more in the tank for IYR (REIT ETF) as the Dollar continues it's rally? Keep in mind, a rate hike currently isn't priced in until July of 2022 and the inflationary pressures have been strong but with some patience on the REIT investor's part. I do believe the company could be primed to make an early run before a defensive cycle emerges. I'll scale in and manage risk based on price / sentiment toward the defensive names as a whole.
$DRE: Acting Like They Forgot About$PLD and $DRE, I believe, are setting up for a longer run here as the deflationary environment takes over. Don't forget about industrial REIT's or $DRE :)
EverGrande Real-estate situation in China = Black Swan Event?Will the EverGrande Real-estate situation in China be the catalyst that pops our real estate bubble and slow down our homebuilder industry?
This was last year, when they listed their stock to the HK market and scammed retail money. Now they are out of cash again, and their bonds are worth less than 30% on the dollar.
If this thing collapse, it could be China's version of the Lehman Collapse.
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The world’s most indebted developer has warned Chinese officials it faces a potential default that could roil the nation’s $50 trillion financial system unless regulators approve the company’s long-delayed stock exchange listing. Shares and bonds fell in volatile trading.
China Evergrande Group mapped out the scenario in an Aug. 24 letter to the Guangdong government seen by Bloomberg, in which the company sought support for a restructuring proposal needed to secure the listing and avert a cash crunch.
Some of Evergrande’s biggest strategic investors have the right to demand their money back if the company fails to win approval for a backdoor listing on the Shenzhen stock exchange by Jan. 31. If investors refuse to extend the deadline, Evergrande will need to repay as much as 130 billion yuan ($19 billion), equivalent to 92% of its cash and cash equivalents."
IYR - HousingLooking rather Poor as large Put Buyers have enetered the Homies Turf.
This group of traders is ahead, they will close quickly once their Pirce Objective is met.
It would "appear" there is a large Institutional Group whois in Liquiadation Mode.
Sectors that have out-performed are being SOLD.
FInancials, Health Care, REITs and Utilities... Sellers present.
REITS - will outperformance continue?S&P500 ($SPY) has continued to print new all-time highs throughout this year, albeit lately on continually narrowing breadth. Potentially lost in the fray is the fact that real estate has actually been outperforming SPY throughout 2021 (as have commodities). This graph shows the relative strength of $IYR, an ETF representing the Real Estate sector via RE companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) plotted against SPY. Notice the upward trajectory of the outperformance thus far in 2021, and be sure to stay alert for changes in economic or interest rate conditions that may impact this relationship.
Sector early indicator? Yes, Real Estate can be sometimes.The Real Estate sector - here represented by iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR, in orange), Simon Property Group (SPG, in purple), Equity Residential (EQR, in red), - can sometimes act as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks in 1998, Feb 2007, Mar 2015, Nov 2017.
Real Estate crash coming?It has been a long time since our last ETFs discussion. Today I have something to share. IYR (US Real Estate) is getting ready for a new decline. COVID is a real disaster for an offline business. Thousands of restaurants and other retail businesses have already closed and this number will be increasing. It is a dangerous sign. With that in mind, we can experience the start of a new decline in the USA commercial real estate in the coming 2 – 3 months. Once the destruction of earning levels reflects into the economic cycles, banks will tighten lending opportunities. That means the number of capable buyers will decrease at a time when home inventories may begin to skyrocket. Does it remind you of something? – It is very similar to what happened before the 2008-09 credit crisis.
Pay attention to the Case-Shiller data. It is showing home price levels had already exceeded 2006-07 levels. So, what do we have? – Extremely high price levels, combined with the uncertainty of future earnings, unemployment, a big number of closed retail businesses, falling consumer confidence, layoffs, etc. What result can we expect? Real Estate ETFs can decline another 30 – 50%. So, if you deal with USA commercial real estate, it makes perfect sense to hedge your risks. And active traders have another pending opportunity to get substantial gains.
THE WEEK AHEAD: KBH, NKE EARNINGS; IWM, IYREARNINGS:
KBH (64/77/15.5%) announces on Wednesday after the close. Pictured here is a Plain Jane, directionally neutral short strangle camped out at the 18 delta strikes paying 1.34 as of Friday close. Look to put on a play on Wednesday before the close, adjusting strikes as necessary to accommodate movement of the underlying between here and then.
NKW (40/45/9.1%) also announces this week (Thursday after the close), but has less than ideal metrics. Naturally, those could change during the week, so it's worth keeping an eye on.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35%:
SLV (51/39)
EWW (47/43)
TQQQ (45/92)
GDXJ (44/61)
XLE (42/55)
EWZ (42/37)
GDX (38/47)
SMH (35/40)
XOP (31/68)
USO (12/60)
I generally look for rank >50, 30-day >35% with these; only SLV meets this criteria, but the August 21st 15/19 short strangle paying .61 doesn't exactly get my motor running.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (61/46)
SPY (38/32)
QQQ (35/31)
EFA (34/28)
Small caps are where the volatility is at. The August 21st 115/161 delta-neutral 16 delta short strangle is paying 4.34 to put on.
DIVVY-PAYING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK:
IYR (52/40)
XLU (46/32)
HYG (40/22)
EWZ (40/57)
SPY (38/32)
EWA (38/38)
EFA (34/28)
TLT (20/17)
EMB (19/17)
Will look to ladder out in IYR in August, September for the IRA if the implied hangs in there. The 16 delta August 21st 67 short put is paying 1.39; the September 65, 1.61.
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, CCL, KMX EARNINGS; XLE, IWM, IYREARNINGS:
I'm not really seeing anything at the moment that meets my criteria for good liquidity, high rank/high implied to play this coming week for earnings-related volatility contraction plays.
While ORCL (53/44/9.8%) announces Tuesday after the market close, 30-day's only at 44 with the July at-the-money short straddle paying 9.8% of the stock price, which doesn't exactly get my motor running for a volatility contraction play.
CCL (47/142/31.6%) announces Thursday. It has the right volatility metrics and the July short straddle is paying a whopping 31.6% of the stock price, but most are playing this for a recovery from a coronavirus beat-down. For what it's worth, the July 15th 17 short put (19 delta; bullish assumption) is paying 1.17 at the mid price with a cost basis of 15.83 if assigned.
KMX (60/71/15.11%) announces on Friday morning, but isn't the most liquid thing in the world, with the July 17th 75/105 showing bid 3.60/mid 3.80/ask 4.00.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY:
XLE (55/61)
XLU (53/38)
SLV (51/38)
EWW (49/46)
GDXJ (49/63)
EWZ (45/61)
SMH (45/46)
GDX (45/41)
XOP (41/79)
USO (18/68)
Notes: I don't have any XLE on currently. The August 21st 32/48 (17 delta) is paying 1.76.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (66/50)
EFA (42/36)
QQQ (41/34)
SPY (39/35)
Notes: If you're going to sell premium in broad market, small caps is probably the place to do it. Unfortunately, we're kind of mid-cycle here with July only having 34 days left in it and the August, 69, but if you're willing to go a bit longer with duration: IWM August 21st 113/159 (17 delta), paying 4.81.
DIVVY YIELDING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS FOR THE IRA:
IYR (65/47)
EWA (57/44)
XLU (53/38)
EWZ (45/61)
HYG (45/26)
EFA (42/36)
SPY (39/35)
TLT (23/20)
EMB (23/18)
Notes: Pictured here is an IYR (3.51% yield) September 18th 65 short put paying 2.02 at the mid. I've been generally laddering out as an acquisitional play for the IRA, but July has only 34 days left, and there is currently no August (although there will probably be one post June opex), so a single September put would have to do.
OPENING (IRA): IYR APRIL/MAY/JUNE 54/55/56 SHORT PUT LADDERYet another acquisitional setup in the IRA, filled for 9.38 total.
Notes: I already have some IYR covered calls in the IRA (3.50% yield), but figured I'd potentially add here on this brutal down move. I would note that markets are wide and had to nickel down or more to get a fill on the ladder as a unit. And we'll see how that goes ... .
Elliott Wave View: IYR New All-Time-High in SightIYR is the ticker symbol for U.S. Real Estate ETF. Since the financial crash in 2009, the instrument is steadily rising and currently only $1 from breaking the 2007 all-time high. In the short term chart below, we can see the rally is unfolding as an 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. The impulsive rally started from August 5, 2019 low where wave ((i)) ended at 92.66 and wave ((ii)) ended at 90.75. Wave ((iii)) is in progress and unfolding as another impulse Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree.
A 100% Fibonacci extension measurement from August 5 gives us a possible short term target of 96.45 – 97.8. This can be a possible short term target to the upside. Near term, while pullback stays above 90.76, expect the instrument to extend higher. We do not like selling the instrument. Dips should find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 90.76 low stays intact. In the larger degree, if IYR makes all-time high by breaking above 2007 high (95), that should create a bullish sequence and open further upside in the larger degree.