SPY head n shoulder formation we are at or near the end I am posting this chart at this time for what is good reason . The neg cycles from the spiral from 9/11/2001 is nov 3 but as stated we were closed until sept 21 and that is nov13 th so WHY am I going long Reason is the IYT dropped and held my line in the sand at 209.6 and that the DOW retraced to .786 to the tick . is that good enough to take the risk YES by Options and NOT futures .
IYT
$IYT Trend line SupportThe AMEX:IYT ETF, which is currently at a critical trend line support level. This pivotal juncture could very well influence the ETF's directional bias in the short to medium term.
For those looking at potential entry or exit points, this may present an ideal moment to reassess your positions and investment strategies involving $IYT. Trend line support levels often serve as crucial indicators for bullish or bearish market sentiment, and a confirmed break or bounce at this level could provide actionable insights for your trading decisions.
DOW TRANSPORTATION .50 % and 618% The wave structure can be counted as a wave 4 drop this would setup the last wave up from today as the setup for support is been seen today . and put call models are set and oil is setup to break from 93/95.5 back to under 84 /79 this would be supportive for the djt
$IYT IYT #IYT This level has LONG historyThis $200 range has a long history of solid support which used to once be heavy never-ending resistance. This should now be really strong support as shown today. That double bottom it created at the $197 range this afternoon should really be current Temp. support. I would expect ( not financial advice) a relief bounce from here. If and when the $200 level is lost ( $195 is the lowest i'd hold Stop) you'll find no support until $175 followed by $155.
ishares Trust iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT)-Bullishishares Trust iShares U.S. Transportation ETF AMEX:IYT
I am bullish on IYT because I've identified a Bullish Harami pattern on the daily chart. Furthermore, we have several confluences on the MacD, RSI and volume indicators.
-The signal is crossing up like A.I. (Allen Iverson) on the MacD indicator
- The RSI indicator is pointing up
-The OBV indicator is displaying increasing volume
Peace & Prosperity,
Al
*******This is not financial advice**************This is not financial advice**************This is not financial advice*******
Transports weakening, an ominous sign for the markets?After making new highs in 2021, the transport ETF has failed to push to new highs on multiple occasions. This similar chart pattern also took place in 2008. There's an unfilled gap in the $148-152 level. That would be a logical target when/if this weakness continues. This is also a potential ominous sign for the overall markets if the 2008 playbook is repeating itself.....
NSC - Ascending triangle, sector newsNSC - Ascending triangle, Rail sector news. Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) To Buy Kansas City Southern (KSU) In US$29 Bln Deal. NSC is forming an Ascending triangle on daily TF. There will only be 5 rail stocks left with a positive ROI, based on Finviz.com screener.
IYT Transport Golden cross continuation in septemberIYT Transport Golden cross on Aug 21, looking for continuation. You can see the accumulation candles in the chart. The top 4 holdings are FDX, UNP, NSC and KSU, which make up over 40% of ETF. Using seasonality charts, IYT in sept is up 2.5% the past 4 years.
How go the transports, so goes the marketcomparing 45min chart of SPY and IYT...volume profile gives some support as to why the IYT is not recovering. there is no volume support at current prices, and holders mainly bought much higher...
SPY...it is at the point of supply...failed to get above it and is now grinding in a narrow range as the volume at this level fights for supremacy...I think the straight volume trend still in decline, compared to the increasing volume in the IYT shows that the price has not quite hit the stops or trigger point on SPY.
As the economic reality sets in, another month of missed payments, 2 looming bankruptcies (Hertz, JCrew), and unemployment on thursday...I'd expect some risk off trades ahead of the numbers, but with the fiscal stimulus fire hose on full blast...who knows...maybe people are placing bets for an in line number and thus irrationally exuberant push higher...As a small business owner, I just can't shake the sense that something profound has changed. In some ways for the better, but for the near term economic outlook it is decidedly negative.
Maybe not this week, but by this fall we will be trading sub 2400 on the SP500 and talking about the worst economic crisis in living memory.
Printing fiat will not fix this...It is a system of payments, the payments can't stop for more than 30days...let alone 60-90, before the system just fails...Don't believe me? Get long and watch.
S&P Next Week Expected Move ($50.50)I continue to believe the risks are heavily skewed to the downside, a belief that has only strengthened as the Coronavirus's impact on the global economy has yet to show up in economic data.
Best of Luck Next Week:
- RH
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Baltic Dry Index offers the earliest indication:
tradingeconomics.com
Broad Overview of Coronavirus:
www.youtube.com
Fed Concerned:
www.bloomberg.com
Germany Industrial Production Worst in 11 Years:
tradingeconomics.com
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Last Week:
Monthly USOIL:
Daily USOIL:
Chart Dump:
S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($44.5) | Broadening Top Short Call - Took an initial short position in several stocks at the end of day Friday. Looking to add more exposure throughout the next several weeks. I don't expect a crash or a recession or anything until late 2021, just a swift and moderate correction at some point in the near future.
Larger move than we've had in many weeks - you can see this by the orange bars enveloping the prior two weeks orange bars.
It's been an exercise in patience these last few months. Finally think the time is ripe for a reversal.
Fear-Greed hit 98 on Thursday, the highest I've ever recorded.
Put-Call is extremely low.
Bulkowski CPI went bearish as of today.
Window Dressing and Santa Claus rally have concluded.
AAII survey elevated and complacent.
Ned Davis sentiment is extremely elevated.
We are in the 3rd standard deviation of the trend , which is where a contrarian investor like myself finds the opportunity.
Dow Transports (IYT) is struggling and severely underperforming.
VIX is no longer declining, I believe volatility should increase which is further supported by the expected moves.
Breadth is declining, signaled by Percent of stocks above 20,50,100 day moving averages
Looks like we have a broadening top formation . I have, in purple , marked the initial target for both outcomes. Broadening Tops have poor reliability, so my ABCDE count might be flipped due to my bearish bias. I've shown how both outcomes should look.
Last Weeks Expected Move: (Excellent week in my opinion)
First Five Days:
seekingalpha.com
January Barometer:
www.yardeni.com
3rd Standard Deviation of Trend:
SKEW:
Breadth Declining:
VIX:
Bonds TLT Perking Up:
Transports:
Initial Claims:
- I recently lost my Investment Analyst job for what it's worth.
PMI: (Disappointing reading but expecting it to pick up)
Goodluck out there next week, please do your own due diligence and don't blindly follow me or anyone's investment suggestions. Everyone is different.
Best to all you traders and wishing you a tremendous 2020.
- RH