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S&P Next Week Expected Move ($33.0) & Gravity PointsMy 2nd Long Term Target was hit and surpassed. Sentiment is complacent. Complacency is different from Greed. Still bearish, but more sneaky. I'm a strong believer in sentiment and I believe we're going to need to work off this extreme reading one way or the other. Historically, we move sideways to lower after reaching such optimistic levels. It's not sustainable. We're talking 90-95th percentile levels, which is the only time it's worth mentioning. I don't anticipate a crash or anything, but do think expectations over the next 1-3 weeks should be tempered. Last Week: **Unemployment: High Yield: (Non-confirmation) Stock Pick: (Deep Value) Homebuilders: (Interest Rates) Real Estate: (Interest Rates) G7 Friend: (International) Regional Banks: (Retest?) Dollar: (Strength via lack of bearishness?) Growth vs. Value Ratio: (Reversal?) Healthcare vs. SPY Ratio: (Breakout?) Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples Ratio: (Failure?) Emerging Markets vs. SPY Ratio: (Failure?) Low Volatility vs. High Beta: (Risk on)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RHTrading
S&P Next Week Expected Move ($58.5) and Gravity PointsGravity Point at $2911 looks like an objective Long . Short term , this is oversold, 5 days down in a row. Plan on exiting the long at the Red Box . I could see another shorting opportunity if we got to $3000 again. Expected move increased by $20 after last week had a 3 standard deviation move down, breaking the trend we had built. Last major week of earnings ahead. Goodluck next week gentlemen, - RH Last Week's Post: (Expected Move: $38) Zoomed out 30 minute view of most recent uptrend: Zoomed out 2hr view of the most recent uptrend:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
S&P Next Week Trade Plan: Expected Move ($41) & Gravity PointsWelcome to Earnings Season! Google and Amazon report earnings on the 25th after the market. Both will highly influence Friday's trading session. Expected Move for the week is $41.25 +/- which is a 25% increase w/w of the expected move so put on your seatbelt. Netflix missed horribly. Fed cutting interest rates will be negative for the financials XLF. We broke through the bottom of last week's expected move so I colored it from Orange to Red to represent that. I have a buy target if we end up overshooting this week's expected move and falling all the way to our longstanding Gravity Point . It looks like the smallcaps and transports are a bad day or two away from breaking down The SPX is dangerously extended above all of its moving averages. Gold bugs watch Silver for confirmation. If you want to watch Google getting relentlessly spanked here's the link; www.youtube.com Last Week's Post: Best of luck next week gentlemen - RH
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RHTrading
Small Cap Stocks with Bearish daily and weekly chartsThe Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians. Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future. Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU. Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up. This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher. We authored a research article about this pattern setup on February 17, 2019. You can read it here. Skilled traders watch all the charts to assist them in identifying characteristics that can assist them in understanding price moves, key support/resistance levels, and price patterns. This IWM chart should be on everyone’s radar at the moment. Where the IWM finds support, so will the other US stock market indexes. The IWM setup indicates we may only see a 5~7% downside price swing before support is found. We’ll have to watch how this plays out over the next few weeks/months to determine if the $144.25 level is true support or if the lower $137.00 level will become support. Either way, the downside price swing appears poised to unfold over the next few days/weeks – so be prepared. Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019. We have already positioned our clients for this move and we believe we can help you stay ahead of these markets.
AMEX:IWMShort
by TheTechnicalTraders
IYT TRansports Look WeakTransports look weak, FedEx is a big component of IYT so it may just be an earnings thing.... FedEx gets dumped pre-earnings because everyone anticipates crappy earnings. Looks like it could have another leg down with a reversal next week on earning. If FedEx surprises then we'll see a big rally. Dumped most of my stocks this morning, was hoping for a bigger gap. No compelling reason to go long until tomorrow afternoon or later this week. There's probably an opportunity to do a 1 - 2 day short, AMZN has already rolled over.
CBOE:IYT
by hungry_hippo
3
Commodities and Transportation paint PictureOur ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices. These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets. When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy. When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies. When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase. Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”. Let’s get into the research. First, the NASDAQ Transportation Index is painting a very clear picture that the upside price move starting near the end of 2016 drove prices well above historical normal ranges. Even today, we are well above historical ranges originating from the lows in 1998 and including the range expansion from the highs of 2007 to the lows of 2009. Given the premise that the Transportation Index would be highlighting increased economic activities across the planet and particularly those of more mature economies, one should expect that global trade/economic activity should be near all-time highs. What we would expect to find to help confirm our analysis is the price levels of general commodities would be increased to match the renewed optimism we believe is growing in the global markets. Obviously, if the global economies are doing well and trade/sales are increasing, then we would expect core commodity levels to increase as demand stays strong which we have seen this happen time and time again during economic cycles. GLD SLV GDX JNUG NUGT SIL GDXJ IYT XTN TPOR
AMEX:GLDShort
by TheTechnicalTraders
1
TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK IN CH ROBINSON (CHRW)Now this week's new Trade Idea of The Week is in CH ROBINSON (CHRW). We decided to enter a bullish position in one of our watchlist stocks, CH ROBINSON. We entered this trade on the long side at $92.94 and we have already made some gains today. This is a great setup that we loved to play called a squeeze. This is where the price consolidates and then starts to move with momentum out of the consolidation. This type of setup can produce some of the best explosive moves. Here is a list of reasons why we like this trade: The overall market is looking strong in the short term The transportation sector is looking great right now (you can see this sector's chart on our Sector Watch) The price is moving higher out of a squeeze The price has moved above the 21 period moving average with momentum We are hoping that all of these reasons provide a profitable setup for us to swing trade the next coming days!
NASDAQ:CHRWLong
by StrengthTrading
1
BEARISH RATING - XLE (SPDR SELECT SECTOR - ENERGY)It's been about seven sessions since we first issued our real time rating on XLE as bearish, and we still believe there will be opportunity to the downside. Volatility should continue as headline risk prompts uncertainty in the markets. Even if Saudi Arabia did happen to freeze or reduce production, it could not be enough in the long-term to offset production by Iran, Iraq, Russia and US shale producers. Furthermore, as we stated well over a year ago, the continuously slowdown in global economic growth will put a damper on crude prices. Here is our note from 9.14.16: Fundamentally, we do not see a meaningful resolution between Saudi Arabia and Russia curtailing their massive crude production, in part do to the unwillingness of Iran to freeze production until it reaches 4 m/bbl per day in production. With Russia - and most of OPEC - continuing course, any production cuts by domestic producers will be offset, and the supply glut will continue. What is troubling, too, is the IEA reduced its demand forecasts by 100,000 barrels due to weaker demand from Asia. The report suggested that the supply-demand imbalance will last until the first half of 2017. If subscribers remember, we foretasted, in August 2015, that demand would continue to slow due to the global slowdown and that Chinese demand would wane. The inability for the consensus to forecast the sharp decline in global economic growth has left crude prices quite volatile. We expect ongoing EIA inventory data to favor crude bears as the industry heads into the seasonally weak winter months. Technically, a break below $68 will press ascending support. We like the technical indicator make-up that suggests that the next leg of selling is beginning as long as it is supported by key fundamental factors. As bulls continue to unwind longs, the z-score will turn bearish which we prefer on the short-side until -1.5 to -2. Bearish targets are set up on key support. Rating Specifics : Signal Trigger: $67.98 Signal Threshold: $70.02 Signal Opportunity: $60 R/R Ratio: 3.91 Duration: 1 to 3 months _______________________________________ Current subscribers get access to research and analysis spanning multi-asset classes, and real time ratings is a unique way to put research into action. If you would like to be contacted about MacroView Research and interested in subscribing, please visit macroview.co
AMEX:XLE
by MacroView_Research