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Elliott Wave Insight: DXY Correction to 100 ?PEPPERSTONE:USDX TVC:DXY TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY 📊 DXY Analysis with Elliott Waves 🌊 Wave (B) appears to be completing around 109. A corrective decline toward the 100 zone (Wave (C)) is likely. Key Fibonacci targets: 100% at 95.06 and 127.2% at 90.93. 🔎 Keep an eye on price action near these levels for potential reversals. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by Trwin
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? The EURUSD pair reacted bullishly after touching the support zone, leading to an upward movement. This support level aligns with an ascending trendline, adding to its significance. Currently, the price is struggling with a key resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this level would generate a bullish signal, potentially driving the price toward the next target level. However, if the support zone is broken, the bullish scenario would be invalidated. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
19
GOLD → Waiting for news. What next?OANDA:XAUUSD during the adjustment period, we are monitoring key risk zones from which the trend may continue or the correction could extend longer... The focus today is on the scheduled US CPI data release, which could provide new momentum for gold. Markets remain concerned about Trump's tariffs potentially triggering inflationary pressures, which could allow the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance. The US dollar strengthened significantly following speculation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, putting pressure on gold prices for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. However, Trump also hinted at considering additional tariffs on goods, raising concerns about a global trade war and serving as a catalyst for this safe-haven precious metal. Gold's next movement depends on inflation data and Trump's tariff levels. If CPI exceeds forecasts, the dollar will strengthen and gold prices will decline. Conversely, weak data could support the metal's growth. Resistance levels: 2898, 2911, 2930 Support levels: 2880, 2870, 2855 From a technical perspective, breaking above the support level at 2880 indicates the market remains bullish and quite aggressive. If buyers maintain prices above 2880-2885, then in the short and medium term, we should expect prices to rise to 2930-2950. If gold breaks below 2880 and stays under this zone, market liquidation could occur and prices may fall to 2855, 2848, after which we can expect gold's growth to resume.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
4
"Gold Bullish Continuation: Waiting for Retest and Buy ConfirmatThis XAUUSD 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. A major support zone has been identified, and price is expected to retest this area before a potential continuation to the upside. The weak high suggests liquidity above, making it a potential target. The analysis indicates waiting for a retest at the support zone and confirming a buying opportunity before targeting higher levels. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Gold: Northbound GoGold Market Outlook: Northbound Momentum Persists Amid Inflation and Trade Concerns XAU/USD Rebounds from Inflation Shock, Poised for Further Gains Following a temporary shakeout triggered by inflation data, gold (XAU/USD) has regained its bullish momentum, reinforcing the narrative of an ongoing uptrend. The precious metal demonstrated remarkable resilience, bouncing back from its dip to $2,865 and reclaiming higher levels as buyers stepped in swiftly. Currently, gold is navigating a pivotal zone around $2,908, a level that could determine the next major price move. Key upcoming events, such as the release of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, will likely influence gold's trajectory in the short term. Macroeconomic Landscape: Inflation, Fed Policy, and Trade Risks The broader macroeconomic environment remains supportive of gold, primarily driven by persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic landscape, further bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues its hawkish stance in response to rising inflation, resulting in higher bond yields that temporarily pressured gold prices downward. However, investors quickly capitalized on the dip, reinforcing the metal’s strong underlying demand. The upcoming PPI report will be a critical factor in shaping market expectations for the Fed’s next move. Should inflationary pressures remain elevated, gold could benefit as investors hedge against potential economic turbulence. Conversely, a softer PPI reading might provide temporary relief for the dollar and yields, exerting short-term pressure on gold. Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Market Sentiment Gold’s price action suggests that the market is in a consolidation phase within a key support zone. The $2,900–$2,908 range has emerged as an important battleground for bulls and bears. If buyers maintain control above $2,908, the potential for gold to retest and surpass its all-time high (ATH) in the medium term remains strong. Key Resistance Levels: $2,920: A critical near-term level that, if breached, could accelerate bullish momentum. $2,929: A significant resistance point that could attract selling pressure but, if surpassed, would signal continued strength. $2,942: A breakout above this level could set the stage for a new price discovery phase. Key Support Levels: $2,908: The immediate support level that must hold to maintain bullish sentiment. $2,902: A deeper retracement zone that could serve as a springboard for another leg higher. Additionally, traders should closely watch the $2,918–$2,920 region, as consolidation above this zone would reinforce bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of an extended rally. Conclusion: Gold’s Path Forward Gold remains well-supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and inflationary concerns, with technical indicators pointing to further potential upside. While short-term fluctuations may occur in response to economic data releases, the broader trend suggests that XAU/USD is positioned to continue its northbound journey. Investors should monitor price action around key levels, as a successful defense of support at $2,908 or a decisive break above $2,920 could confirm the next directional move. With the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and geopolitical risks in focus, gold remains a crucial asset for portfolio diversification and risk management. As market participants await further economic data, the precious metal's resilience underscores its role as a preferred safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by lonelyPlayer0
Institutions Pull Back Their Funds From The FedDisclaimer : Geopolitical factors are currently a major concern. This data analysis aims to serve as a fundamental basis derived directly from official sources to assess the USD exchange rate and the likelihood of future monetary policies under normal economic conditions, excluding geopolitical factors that create sentiment different from the actual economic conditions. H.4.1 Report FRED CME FedWatch Fed Balance Sheet: Securities Held Outright: Increased by $38 million. Reverse Repo (RRP): Significantly decreased by $51.875 million in the latest period. Reserve Balances: Increased by $42.962 million. TGA Data Current balance: $809,154 million. Change this week: Decreased by $8,799 million. Change from last year: Decreased by $22,726 million significantly. RRP A significant decrease in the last 3 days, from $99.65 billion on February 10 to $67.82 billion on February 13, with a total decrease of -$31.83 billion. M2 Money Supply Data: M2 value as of December 2024: $21,533.8 billion. Change from the previous month (Nov 2024): +$85.5 billion. Change from last year (Dec 2023): +$808.4 billion. Fed Interest Rate Decision: Main decision: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Bank Reserve Interest Rate: Remains at 4.4%. Primary Credit Rate: Remains at 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy by continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury securities and MBS. Market Expectations from CME FedWatch Tool: Current target rate: 425-450 bps (4.25% - 4.50%). Probability for an interest rate of 400-425 bps: 2.5%. Probability for an interest rate of 425-450 bps: 97.5%. Based on this analysis The Federal Reserve has a policy to maintain interest rates stable in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Despite the significant decrease in Reverse Repo and the decrease in TGA, as well as the significant increase in M2 Money Supply, this policy is maintained to support economic stability and reduce excess liquidity in the market. The high probability (97.5%) of the market to maintain or increase the interest rate also reflects strong expectations for a conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Impact on USD Overall Based on the analysis of data from the Fed Balance Sheet, TGA, RRP, M2 Money Supply, and interest rate expectations, USD is likely to remain stable to strengthen in the short term, especially due to the tight monetary policy (Quantitative Tightening/QT) and the high probability of interest rates remaining in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Components RRP decreased significantly by -$31.83B in 3 days, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in RRP means banks and financial institutions are withdrawing their funds from The Fed and are likely to move into other assets. This increases liquidity in the market, which may weaken the USD due to more dollars circulating, potentially lowering the exchange rate. M2 Money Supply increased by +$808.4B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A significant increase in M2 indicates more money circulating in the economy, which could pressure the purchasing power of the USD. If this growth continues, it resembles a loosening of monetary policy, which could weaken the USD in the long term. The Fed remains with QT & does not lower interest rates, monetary contraction, USD may strengthen The QT policy and no interest rate cuts indicate that the Fed still wants to control inflation and maintain tight monetary policy. This could attract investors to USD-based assets (Treasury Yields), keeping the USD strong compared to other currencies. TGA decreased by -$8.8B weekly, -$22.7B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in TGA balance indicates that the government is withdrawing funds for spending. This means more dollars entering the economy, which could add pressure to weaken the USD in the short term. You can prepare a trading strategy based on the following scenarios: Bullish USD if scenario: The Fed maintains QT, does not cut interest rates, and investors continue buying USD-based assets. Neutral USD if scenario: The Fed maintains interest rates, but RRP & M2 Money Supply continue to rise. Bearish USD if scenario: RRP continues to decrease drastically, M2 increases significantly, and the Fed starts considering interest rate cuts. Short Term (1-3 months): USD is likely to remain strong due to tight monetary policy, but if liquidity continues to increase from RRP and M2, weakening could occur in the next quarter. Long Term (6-12 months): If M2 continues to rise and the Fed changes its policy towards interest rate cuts, USD will gradually weaken. Focus on market reactions to liquidity data such as RRP and M2. If RRP drops drastically & M2 rises, USD weakens. If the Fed maintains QT & high interest rates, USD remains stable. Pay attention to the next FOMC Meeting & liquidity data (M2 & RRP) for further USD trend confirmation. Important Note: Treat the above analysis as a fundamental basis in making your trading decisions. It is suitable for swing traders, but for the short term, it is important to consider geopolitical factors. ICEUS:DXY ICEUS:DX1!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CipherOracle
Daily Market Outlook: BTC & Forex Setups (#3) | CPI ImpactBefore jumping into today’s analysis, let’s quickly revisit yesterday’s key event – the CPI report. As expected, it triggered a major sell-off in both crypto and stock markets. 📌 BTC Daily – Bulls Still Holding the Line? Despite the heavy selling pressure and low volume, BTC managed to close above the $95K support level yesterday. 📊 Key Observations: Sellers dominated, but buyers are still holding ground within this daily range. No confirmed breakdown below $95K, so yesterday’s short scenario is invalidated. Market remains extremely volatile, making clean trade setups difficult. 📌 Plan: Sitting out of crypto today until we get a clearer structure. 📊 DXY – Time-Based Correction or Breakdown Incoming? The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a time-based correction and testing a key support at 107.372. 📊 Potential Scenarios: ✅ If support holds, we might see DXY push higher, adding pressure to risk assets. ❌ If it breaks down, expect further declines toward 105.692 and possibly 103.451 (Fib levels). 📌 Bias: Short-term bearish, but cautious due to the overall uptrend. 📉 USD/JPY – Short Setup in Play? USD/JPY has completed its corrective phase within a major downtrend and seems to be resuming its bearish momentum. 📊 Key Trade Setup: 🔹 Short Entry: 153.391 (if triggered) 🔹 Take-Profit Zone: 152.473 support If momentum continues, this could be a clean short opportunity. Final Thoughts & Risk Management ⚠ Market is still choppy—wait for clear confirmations before entering trades. ⚠ FOMO is your worst enemy, risk management is your best friend. 💬 I’m Skeptic, and I’ll see you tomorrow with another market breakdown! 🤍 ⚠ Disclaimer: These trade setups are based on my personal analysis and are not financial advice. If you don’t have a solid risk management plan, these triggers may not be suitable for you. Always do your own research (DYOR) and trade at your own risk. 💡
by SkepticWise
1
Gold NEW ATH to $2,912?! (VIDEO ANALYSIS)4H chart has hit our resistance zone & rejected. But, on the smaller TF we're currently seeing a re-distribution schematic play out on Gold ahead of its sell off which means we MIGHT see 1 more new ATH. Re-distribution schematics normally take place in between Wave 3 high, Wave 4 low & Wave 5 high. This sell off schematic normally builds up within a 'Flat Correction' channel, which traps in early sellers & late buyers into the market. This is why it's a hard pattern to recognise. ⭕️POI 1: $2,857 - $2,848 ⭕️POI 2: $2,826 - $2,817
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? The EUR/USD pair has been moving in a range-bound and choppy manner over the past week. However, as long as the price does not break below the identified support level, we expect it to rise at least toward the specified target zone. A break above the key resistance area could provide a buying opportunity, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish trend. If this resistance is breached, further upside movement may be expected. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
21
DXY Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 107.865. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 110.063 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
**DXY 4H Analysis: Ascending Channel Support, Bullish Move AheadThis DXY 4H chart shows an ascending channel with multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) points. The price is currently near the lower trendline support, around 107.754, suggesting a potential bullish reaction. A minor BOS has formed, and a possible retest of the 108.000 zone could act as confirmation for a bullish move. If the price holds above this support, the next upside target is around 110.062. However, a breakdown below the ascending trendline could indicate weakness, with support levels at 107.706–107.675 and a stronger demand zone lower around 106.400.
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DeGRAM | DXY retest of the trend lineDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines. The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and has already reached the dynamic support, which has previously acted as a rebound point twice. The chart dropped below the 62% retracement level and afterwards formed a harmonic pattern and even though the descending structure has been maintained, the index has not yet formed a descending bottom. We expect that after consolidation above 107.760 DXY may rise in the channel to the nearest resistance at 108.540. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYLong
by DeGRAM
4
Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/USD - Bullish OutlookPEPPERSTONE:EURUSD This analysis is based on the application of Elliott Wave principles for the EUR/USD market on a weekly timeframe. 💡 Wave Identification: Corrective Cycle (ABC): After a peak marked by wave B, the market completed a 5-wave downward structure (waves 1 to 5), forming wave C, signaling a possible end of the correction. Potential Reversal Zone (2/B): The current point is a strategic level where a bullish rebound is anticipated. 📊 Projection: A bullish impulse is expected from point C. The initial target lies in the 1.1140 - 1.1217 zone, corresponding to key resistance levels and Fibonacci projections. 🧠 Conclusion: A breakout above 1.0440 could confirm a significant bullish impulse, suggesting buyers are regaining control. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
Long
by Trwin
DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00. Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
TVC:DXY
by Mike_SnD
Gold Alert: Testing 2881 Risk Zone!Gold at a Crossroads: Awaiting Key Triggers XAUUSD is navigating a critical juncture, testing a pivotal risk zone that could dictate its next major move. From this level, we either witness a trend continuation or a deeper corrective phase. Key Drivers: CPI Data & Policy Uncertainty All eyes are on the upcoming US CPI report, which could inject fresh momentum into the market. Inflation figures will play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, influencing both gold and the broader financial landscape. Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic uncertainties add complexity. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Biden administration is preparing new tariffs, which could introduce fresh volatility and global economic risks. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious stance, reinforcing expectations of only a single rate cut in July. This has pushed bond yields higher, creating additional headwinds for gold. Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 2898, 2910, 2929 Support: 2881, 2870, 2855 Potential Scenarios: 🔹 Bullish Case: A false break below 2881 could signal ongoing bullish momentum. If buyers defend the 2881 – 2885 zone, gold may stage a rally towards 2930 – 2950 in the short to medium term. 🔹 Bearish Case: A decisive break and consolidation below 2881 could trigger a wave of liquidation, driving prices lower towards 2855 – 2848. Market Sentiment: A Stalemate Before the Storm With crucial news ahead, the market is at a tipping point. Whether gold surges or sinks depends on inflation data, Fed policy clarity, and potential tariff developments. Traders should brace for volatility as these catalysts unfold.
FX:XAUUSD
by lonelyPlayer0
"Gold Price Analysis: Key Support Break Could Target 2865 and LoThe chart shows that gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a descending channel after a strong uptrend. The price is testing a major support zone around 2883, and a break below this level with bearish confirmation could lead to further downside. the bearish structure suggests more downside pressure. Keep an eye on confirmation signals before taking a position. If gold breaks below 2883, the first short-term target would be 2865. If bearish momentum continues, the next target would be around 2845, followed by the key support at 28 72. Watch for confirmation before entering a position.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1