XAUUSD ANALYS#XAUUSD ANALYS
####### This analysis was loaded with the correct wavenumber. ######
With this wave count, we can say that here, by hunting liquidity, $2950 will move towards $2700 to complete micro-wave C of wave 4.
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The analysis was done by Mr. Khosravi.
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J-DXY
DXY on high time frameDescription:
"Regarding DXY, as I mentioned on recent analysis , the price has reached the (FVG) on the monthly chart and is displaying signs of rejection. On the daily timeframe, candle formations indicate bearish momentum."
If you have any specific questions or if there are particular aspects you would like me to focus on, feel free to let me know!
JPY | USDJPY Weekly FOREX Forecast: Feb 10-14thThis forecast is for the upcoming week, Feb 10-14th.
The Yen has been week for an extended amount of time, underperforming against the USD. But the tide is changing over the last 6 weeks. As the USD is reacting to a HTF selling zone over the this period of time, the Yen has been getting stronger. The potential is there for the YEN to start retracing to the upside.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 10-14thThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 10-14th
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
*JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index has reacted to Weekly Supply, and we saw an attempt on Monday to make a new high fail. This was after Trump announced tariffs and all. The swing failure resulted in the market slowly turning bearish. This would mean that the other currencies can potentially find higher pricing.
As we wait for a definitive break of market structure in the currencies to the upside, selling the USD vs its currency counterparts may be the way to go this week.
The JPY may be the exception, as it continues to underperform.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
SELL DXYDXY Bearish Setup – Weekly High on Monday
This week, we anticipate DXY to set its high on Monday, followed by a sell-off. Short from 108.137, targeting 106.912 and 105.697, with a stop above 108.836. With CPI & PPI releases ahead, volatility is expected, but the bias remains bearish. A break below key support could accelerate downside momentum.
Use proper risk management.
Best of luck to you all.
$DXY MMSMGiven the current scenario, we maintain a bias toward the continuation of the DXY's decline, as it exhibits MMSM characteristics. Additionally, bonds have invalidated a bearish FVG on the daily timeframe after holding at a bullish PDA in discount. However, caution is essential, as we cannot ignore President Trump's statements, which are shaking the market and completely disrupting our bias
Gold ATH to $2,912?!We are currently seeing a re-distribution schematic play out on Gold ahead of its sell off. Re-distribution schematics normally take place in between Wave 3 high, Wave 4 low & Wave 5 high. This sell off schematic normally builds up within a 'Flat Correction' channel which traps in early sellers and lead buyers. This is why it is a hard pattern to recognise.
US DOLLAR at Key Support: Will Price Rebound to 108.200?TVC:DXY is currently testing a key support zone, an area where the price has previously shown strong bullish reactions. The recent price action suggests that buyers may step in and drive the price higher. A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the probability of a bounce from this level. If buyers regain control, the price could move toward the 108.200 level.
However, a breakout below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially opening the door for further downside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
$EURUSD relative strength and the $DXY index Today we are dipping into the currency markets where we are plotting the FX:EURUSD and the TVC:DXY index in the same chart. Even if the TVC:DXY is making a local top @ 108 but the FX:EURUSD is not breaking below the 0.236 Fib retrenchment level. FX:EURUSD has shown great resilience every step of the way recently. This might indicate a local bottom on $EURUSD. If FX:EURUSD bounces back from the 0.236 fib retracement level watch out for the next 0.382 Fib level when the FX:EURUSD hits 1.062. The TVC:DXY is failing to make a new top on the weekly chart. So, with ECONOMICS:USM2 increasing and the supply of USD increasing in the market there might be some weakness in USD in the weeks to come. And if TVC:DXY tops out here and fails then FX:EURUSD will show some bullish trends because 60% of the TVC:DXY index is still in EUR.
Gold Buy (194pips)Dollar Index is losing value and institutions are increasing their longs. We could soon touch $3000, pay close attention to market structures for proper buy positions. This a only a trade idea, use demo account to place trades. Happy trading OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY ECONOMICS:USINTR
USDCAD at a crucial support.USDCAD - Intraday
The selloff has posted an exhaustion count on the intraday chart.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.4350 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 1.4425.
We look to Buy at 1.4300 (stop at 1.4260)
Our profit targets will be 1.4400 and 1.4425
Resistance: 1.4350 / 1.4400 / 1.4425
Support: 1.4300 / 1.4275 / 1.4250
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DXY Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 107.703.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 106.459.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Surging Dollar Spurs Jump in Corporate FX HedgingThe relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is sending ripples of concern through the global economy, and businesses are taking notice. Faced with a strengthening greenback, corporations are increasingly turning to foreign exchange (FX) hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations on their bottom lines. This surge in hedging activity reflects a growing awareness of the risks associated with currency volatility and a proactive approach to protecting profits in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
The Dollar's Dominance
The U.S. dollar has been on a tear, appreciating significantly against a basket of other major currencies. This surge is driven by a confluence of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, and the relative strength of the U.S. economy. While a strong dollar can have some benefits, such as lower import costs, it also poses significant challenges for multinational corporations.1
Impact on Corporate Earnings
For companies that generate revenue in foreign currencies but report earnings in U.S. dollars, a strong dollar can create a significant headwind. When foreign revenues are converted back into dollars, they are worth less than they were before the dollar's appreciation. This can lead to lower reported earnings, even if the company's underlying business performance remains strong. Conversely, companies that import goods priced in dollars but sell them in other currencies see their profit margins squeezed as their input costs rise.
The Hedging Imperative
In this environment of heightened currency risk, FX hedging has become a crucial tool for corporations.2 Hedging involves using financial instruments, such as forward contracts, options, or swaps, to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.3 This allows companies to insulate themselves from adverse currency movements and provides greater certainty about their future cash flows and earnings.4
Surge in Hedging Activity
Market data suggests a significant uptick in corporate FX hedging activity. Treasurers and finance departments are increasingly prioritizing currency risk management, recognizing that even small fluctuations in exchange rates can have a material impact on their financial results. This increased focus on hedging is driven by several factors:
• Heightened Volatility: The dollar's rapid appreciation has created significant volatility in currency markets, making it more difficult for companies to predict future exchange rates. This uncertainty underscores the need for hedging strategies to protect against unexpected currency swings.
• Earnings Protection: As mentioned earlier, a strong dollar can erode corporate earnings. Hedging allows companies to mitigate this risk and ensure that their financial performance is not unduly impacted by currency fluctuations.5
• Strategic Planning: Hedging provides greater predictability in cash flows, which is essential for strategic planning and investment decisions.6 By locking in exchange rates, companies can make more informed decisions about future investments and expansion plans.7
• Shareholder Expectations: Investors are increasingly scrutinizing companies' currency risk management practices. Companies that proactively hedge against currency risks are often seen as more prudent and better managed, which can be a positive factor for investor confidence.
Types of Hedging Strategies
Companies employ a variety of hedging strategies depending on their specific needs and risk tolerance.8 Some common approaches include:
• Forward Contracts: These contracts obligate a company to buy or sell a specific amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date.9 This is a straightforward way to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.
• Options: Currency options give a company the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price on or before a certain date.10 Options provide flexibility and allow companies to benefit from favorable currency movements while limiting their downside risk.11
• Currency Swaps: These agreements involve exchanging principal and/or interest payments in one currency for those in another currency.12 Swaps can be used to manage currency risk associated with long-term debt or investments.13
Challenges and Considerations
While hedging can be an effective way to manage currency risk, it's not without its challenges. Hedging strategies can be complex and require specialized expertise. Furthermore, hedging involves costs, such as premiums paid for options or fees for forward contracts.14 Companies need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of hedging and choose strategies that are appropriate for their specific circumstances.
Looking Ahead
The strong dollar is likely to remain a significant factor in the global economy for the foreseeable future. As such, corporate FX hedging is expected to remain a priority for multinational companies. Companies that proactively manage their currency risk are better positioned to navigate the challenges of a strong dollar environment and protect their earnings from adverse currency movements.15 The current surge in hedging activity reflects a growing recognition of this reality and a proactive approach to mitigating currency risk in an increasingly interconnected world. As global economic conditions evolve, companies will need to remain vigilant and adapt their hedging strategies accordingly to ensure they are adequately protected from currency volatility.
Levels discussed on Livestream 6th Feb 20256th Feb 2025
DXY: Retracing from 107 support area, look for reaction between 107.90 and 108.30, above 108.30 could trade up to 109.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5640 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 30 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6330)
GBPUSD: Straddle Rates Decision Pending
Sell 1.2430 SL 30 TP 100
Buy 1.2510 SL 30 TP 100
EURUSD: Sell 1.0320 SL 30 TP 90
USDJPY: Buy 153.65 SL 40 TP 90
EURJPY: Sell 157.75 SL 40 TP 120
GBPJPY: Sell 189.70 SL 50 TP 145
USDCHF: Sell 0.90 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.8975)
USDCAD: Buy 1.44 SL 30 TP 60
XAUUSD: Retracing, could test 2840 (50%) and bounce higher to 2900
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (4H UPDATE)We've seen an initial rejection from our resistance zone, with Gold down 470 PIPS so far. We have seen most of today's downside wiped, as Gold has pushed back up again.
We have NFP data tomorrow, so how Gold moves & the weekly candle closes, will indicate if we still have some further upside left next week.