Sell GBP/USD Bearish ChannelThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3060, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2985
2nd Support – 1.2953
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3100. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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J-DXY
The dollar surge takes a breather, pullback pending?We finally saw the USD rebound I was beating the drum about back in September. But now it's hit a decent resistance zone, I weigh up its potential to hold its ground or producer a deeper pullback. Markets covered include the USD index, EUR/USD and gold.
MS.
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support level which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 103.03
1st Support: 102.36
1st Resistance: 103.67
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Hotter-than-Expected CPI Prints: A Potential Catalyst for DXY an
Introduction
The release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a highly anticipated event in financial markets, often influencing investor sentiment, currency valuations, and risk appetite. A hotter-than-expected CPI print, indicating higher-than-anticipated inflation, has significant implications for monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate cuts. This article explores how such a scenario could strengthen calls to halt or even reverse rate cuts, potentially bolstering the US Dollar Index (DXY) and leading to increased risk aversion.
Understanding CPI and Its Impact on Monetary Policy
CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which central banks closely monitor to assess the overall health of an economy. When CPI rises above the target inflation rate, it suggests that prices are increasing at a faster pace than desired, potentially eroding purchasing power and destabilizing the economy.
Central banks often use interest rates as a tool to manage inflation. By raising interest rates, they make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic activity and reduce demand for goods and services, ultimately putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, lowering interest rates can stimulate economic growth but may also lead to higher inflation if demand outpaces supply.
The Implications of a Hotter-than-Expected CPI Print
If a CPI report comes in hotter than expected, it suggests that inflation is running higher than anticipated. This could lead to increased concerns among central bankers and investors about the potential for inflation to spiral out of control. In response, central banks may feel compelled to pause or even reverse their monetary easing policies.
The prospect of higher interest rates can have a significant impact on financial markets. When central banks raise interest rates, it often leads to a stronger domestic currency relative to other currencies. This is because higher interest rates make the domestic currency more attractive to investors seeking higher returns on their investments.
In the case of the US Dollar, a stronger DXY can have implications for global financial markets. A stronger dollar can make imports cheaper for US consumers but can also make exports more expensive for US businesses, potentially hurting economic growth. Additionally, a stronger dollar can put downward pressure on commodity prices, which can impact the profitability of commodity-producing countries and industries.
The Potential Impact on Risk Aversion
A hotter-than-expected CPI print and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy can also lead to increased risk aversion among investors. When investors become more cautious about the outlook for the economy, they may be less willing to take on riskier investments, such as stocks and emerging market bonds. This can lead to a sell-off in these asset classes, as investors seek to shift their portfolios to safer, more liquid assets like US Treasury bonds.
Conclusion
A hotter-than-expected CPI print can have significant implications for financial markets, particularly if it leads to a change in monetary policy. By strengthening calls to halt or reverse rate cuts, such a scenario could bolster the US Dollar Index and increase risk aversion. Investors should closely monitor CPI releases and their potential impact on central bank decisions and market sentiment.
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?! (UPDATE)Oil prices are still up & buyers are holding strongly! On the smaller TF we saw price dip a little lower in the past 4 days. For those who aren't in buy's already, you should have used this dip to get into Oil at a cheaper price. Bare in mind prices are still dirt cheap right now, so take advantage before it's too late.
GET INTO LONG TERM OIL POSITIONS NOW!
DXY sellUS dollar had a blasting week this time now as we have traded its upward rally now its moving towards its resistance level where from it will be moving downward rally👇 from its resistance level on H1 we can see a Fair value gap under the price rallied so we will be bearish until it fills its GAP now if we talk about H4 and Daily price is bearish from Daily Time frame so we are bearish this time until fair value gap
DXY: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 102.785
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Sell EURUSD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0986, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0935
2nd Support – 1.0909
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1005. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Dollar Index (DXY) levels to watch ahead of CPIShortly, US CPI will be released at 8:30am EDT or 13:30 BST.
Headline CPI is expected to print +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y (vs. 2.5% last)
Core CPI is seen at +0.2% or +3.2% y/y (unchanged from prev reading).
The inflation data will need to be some distance away from expectations to change the course of the dollar, which has been on the rise in the last week and a half.
Following last week’s formation of big bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart, the dollar index has remined on the front foot so far this week, amid continued buying of the dollar thanks to that big beat on the NFP data.
At the time of writing, the DXY was holding comfortably above the broken bearish trend and support in the 101.90-102.15 region.
It was also above short-term support around 102.65-70 area, which is now the first line of defense for the bulls. They will need to defend this level to keep the bullish momentum alive.
The next big area of resistance is still quite far around 103.65 to 104.00 (where the 200-day average meets a former pivotal zone), meaning there is further room for the dollar rally before it potentially fades.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DXY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 102.931.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 101.163 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Sell Gold (XAU/USD) Triangle BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2638
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2616
2nd Support – 2605
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2660. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
DXY Set for a Retracement Towards Sell-Side Liquidity - OTE FVGDXY is showing clear signs of a retracement to the daily sell-side liquidity level around 100.215. Price wicked into a higher timeframe (HTF) daily order block near 102.860, and then closed below, signaling bearish momentum. Keep in mind, upcoming high-impact news could affect price action. If price doesn’t respect the order block, it may react to the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the optimal trade entry (OTE) zone.
DYOR
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 102.930
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
[DXY] Towards resistanceMany assets are waiting for clarification on TVC:DXY move. At the moment, it still climbing towards the lower side of triangle as resistance at 103.
If breaks, we still have 220 EMA at 103.40.
I'm still thinking this will go lower & this move is simply a pressure relief...but let see.
DXY H1 - Short before longDXY H1
Very good morning all, here is our update on the dollar index, last week we saw bulls storm the markets following various different data points. The bull run has sustained and Mondays trading session saw indecisive price movement in the form of consolidation. We are looking like we want to break to the downside.
Slowly, but hopefully surely we start to see price pull down towards our anticipated buy zone of around 101.850 price, this is where we would find support amongst a few timeframes, aligning with our confluence zone. Same bias as yesterday, until we see a break of this area of consolidation.
Dollar begins to rebound after NFP data
The Fed's possibility of making another jumbo cut quickly faded following September's NFP report, which renewed confidence in the US job market. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a 50bp cut at the November FOMC has dropped from 36.8% to 0%, while the probability of a 25bp cut has surged to 88.8%. It's worth noting that the likelihood of a rate freeze has risen from 0% to 11.2%. Due to this, the dollar bounced back swiftly as expectations grew that the Fed's dovish stance would not persist.
DXY quickly breached the trendline and climbed above the 102.50 level. The price holds above both EMAs, sending out an apparent bullish signal. If DXY sustains support above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 103.30 resistance. Conversely, if DXY breaks the 101.60 support, where EMA21 coincides, the price may fall further to 101.10.