Gold 1HR Intra-Day Chart 25.09.2024Gold is still creating a very overextended & complex Wave III. Market structure is still valid. All this means is Wave 5 will end higher than we originally expected.
Still waiting for some form of Wave 4 (3 Sub Wave) correction to the downside. This'll give a better indication on where Gold will find its top with Wave 5.
I am currently selling Gold. Targeting $2,640 - $2,630 as Wave 4 correction.
J-DXY
The EURUSD faces a lot of resistance on the approach to 1.1250There are a lot of opposing forces with the USD in the coming sessions with month end flows, corporate month end flows and economic data. The EURUSD is also approaching very critical resistance near the 1.1250 level which is a trend line from 2008!
GOLD BULLISH TO $2,604 - $2,630 (1H UPDATE)Gold is still creating a very overextended & complex Wave III. Market structure is still valid. All this means is Wave 5 will end higher than we originally expected.
Still waiting for some form of Wave 4 (3 Sub Wave) correction to the downside. This'll give a better indication on where Gold will find its top with Wave 5.
DreamAnalysis | DXY Insights with Major Price Zones AheadToday, we’re diving into the DXY (US Dollar Index), a key player in the forex market. We’ll break down its current price movements and explore what we can anticipate based on critical levels.
📊 Current Market Overview :
At the moment, the price has swept through several key sell-side liquidity (SSL) levels, including the Previous Month Low (PML). We expected a retracement higher, but so far, price hasn’t made any significant moves. Now, price is hovering around an Equal Low (EQL), which also aligns with the Previous Week Low (PWL). With that said, the possibility remains that price could drive lower, clearing additional SSL levels.
🕓 Identifying Key Levels :
Here are the critical levels we’re monitoring on the chart:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- EQL: Equal Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- 4H FVG: 4-Hour Fair Value Gap (potential retracement and imbalance zone)
- Daily FVG: Daily Fair Value Gap
These levels represent important zones where the price may gather liquidity, enabling it to move toward the next major target. The Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are imbalances that price may revisit to "rebalance" and collect orders.
📈 Bullish Scenario :
For a bullish outlook, we’ll need to see the price sweep the Previous Week Low (PWL) liquidity level, which is also an Equal Low (EQL). However, aggressive traders may look to lower time frames to find entries as price dips into low-resistance sell-side liquidity zones.
📉 Bearish Scenario :
In a bearish scenario, we would need the price to sweep low-resistance buy-side liquidity (BSL) levels on lower time frames before targeting lower levels like the Previous Week Low (PWL). Currently, there isn’t strong confluence on higher time frames to aim for significantly lower prices.
📝 Conclusion :
As we wrap up, it’s crucial to remain flexible and responsive to changing market conditions. Understanding key levels and potential scenarios allows us to refine our trading strategies and capitalize on opportunities.
🔮 Future Market Trends :
Stay tuned! We’ll continue tracking the DXY, EUR/USD, and other major currency pairs, offering timely insights and updates as the market evolves.
⚠️ Disclaimer :
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
EUR/USD Buy Opportunity - Short-Term AnalysisMonthly & Weekly Perspective
The EUR/USD is showing a strong buy opportunity, driven by recent macroeconomic developments. The U.S. Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points, a significant move that weakens the dollar in the short term. Although the U.S. has been one of the more cautious economies, being the last to cut rates, this decision will likely continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar in the weeks to come.
Key Points Supporting the Buy Opportunity:
Interest Rate Cuts: The rate cut will lead to a short-term decline in the dollar's strength, which is bullish for the EUR/USD. As the market adjusts to this new monetary policy, we can expect further weakening of the dollar.
DXY Divergence: A bearish divergence on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is signaling further dollar weakness. This divergence, in tandem with rate cuts, reinforces the potential for EUR/USD appreciation.
Bond Market Signals:
The 10-Year Treasury Note and Bond 10-Year Yield are also showing bearish signals for the dollar. When yields decline, it typically indicates lower demand for the dollar, adding further support to the EUR/USD rally.
Technical Levels:
On the monthly and weekly charts, EUR/USD is approaching a crucial resistance level marked by a previous monthly high (Red Line). There’s a high probability of price seeking liquidity above these highs before initiating a potential reversal to the downside.
Liquidity Targets: Before any sustained sell-off begins, the pair needs to clear monthly liquidity resting above key highs. This will likely create an upward momentum toward the red resistance line, which can serve as a target for buy trades.
Buying Scenario:
Entry Point: The current price action suggests that there are favorable buy opportunities as long as the EUR/USD trades above critical support levels on the weekly and monthly charts. Traders should be cautious around major resistance but can target the highs near the red line before considering a sell-off.
Risk Management: Keep an eye on the U.S. data releases in the coming weeks to monitor if the rate cuts were the right decision. These could impact the dollar and, consequently, the EUR/USD trajectory.
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $77,000 (UPDATE)Every time BTC prices to jump up, you can see sellers come back in & knock the price back down in its current range. This adds stronger confirmation for me that price will drop soon towards our grey 'supply zone'. Patiently waiting.
Once price taps in and ONLY if I see a clear 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) move, I will look to open buy positions.
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 100.626
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Levels discussed on livestream 25th September25th September
DXY: Retracing from 100.20, could retest 100.60, look for rejection to continue lower to 100 and 99.70 major support level.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6310 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6880 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3345 SL 40 TP 80
EURUSD: Buy 1.1205 SL 15 TP 45
USDJPY: Could range between 145 and 143, look for breakout potential
USDCHF: Buy 0.8470 SL 20 TP 80
USDCAD: Sell 1.3420 SL 25 TP 55
Gold: Bounce off 2652 could trade to 2670 with major level at 2700
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 100.056.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 99.322 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Will ongoing risk-on theme keep dampening the US dollar further?Macro theme:
- On Tue, PBoC surprised investors with a new set of support measures that positively impact risky assets. This unexpected move has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the markets.
-In contrast, the latest data from the US revealed a surprising decline in consumer confidence, which fell to 98.7 this month from a revised 105.6 in Aug. This marked the most significant drop since Aug 2021, sparking concerns about the health of the US economy.
- As a result, market expectations for another 0.5% rate cut by the Fed at its Nov meeting have increased significantly. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a move jumped to 60.7% from 53% just a day earlier. This shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance has further weakened the US dollar as investors become more risk-tolerant.
Technical theme:
- On the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its support area of 100.55-100.60 and confirmed its downward movement. The price is trading below both EMAs by a fair distance, and there is a risk of a potential mean reversion if it tests a strong psychological level, such as 100.00, ahead.
- If DXY extends its decline, it may retest and find psychological support around 100.00, confluence with its descending channel's lower bound.
- Meanwhile, DXY may recover to fill its gap and retest the broken area around 100.55-100.60 before resuming its downward movement.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
U.S. Dollar Index is near to fall. Soon..The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19.
Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all the history peak, while Forex Eur/Usd (EURUSD) pair just has flashed a positive 2024 YTD return, jumping above 1.10 psychological degree.
The US Dollar continues to weaken following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which have increased a new portion of expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank in September. Furthermore, last week’s US economic data revealed that both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggest that inflation is easing.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stressed on Sunday that the US central bank should adopt a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Daly countered economists' concerns that the US economy is facing a sharp slowdown that would warrant rapid interest rate cuts.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that central bank officials should be careful not to maintain a restrictive policy longer than necessary. Although it's uncertain whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month, failing to do so could negatively impact the labor market, according to CNBC.
Additionally, the decline in the US yields contributes to downward pressure for the Greenback. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.05% and 3.85%, respectively, at the time of writing.
This week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.
In a bottom line, the major technical graph for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates on possible huge decline for the next upcoming 12 to 18 months.
The secondary RSI(14) graph indicates also, the bearish sentiment prevails.
XAU/USD UpdateGold prices are pushing higher, defying expectations amid the strengthening U.S. dollar. Despite the dollar's growth, the precious metal continues to climb, hitting new highs with no visible resistance in sight. The geopolitical landscape is providing a strong tailwind, further fueling its upward momentum.
Currently, gold is trading close to its all-time peak, as buyers maintain their bullish stance. The backdrop of recent Federal Reserve statements, China’s aggressive economic stimulus (with the People's Bank of China launching an unprecedented wave of support), and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are all supporting the rally. As the largest consumer of gold globally, China's economic moves add a significant layer of influence to the metal’s trajectory.
Gold traditionally benefits during times of geopolitical instability, and the current situation is no exception. Moreover, the Federal Reserve continues to hint at a potential 0.5% rate cut, adding more fuel to the bullish sentiment.
Key resistance levels are marked at 2634 and 2640, while support can be found at 2623, 2614, and 2602. The broader outlook suggests that gold’s upward trend is poised to persist. Should it manage to consolidate above the previous day's peak, a further advance toward 2650-2660-2675 becomes likely in the medium to short term. However, with significant news on the horizon, a brief correction may occur before the next leg up.
SELL GOLDIn todays session we are looking for selling opportunity in Gold. Gold has been a raging beast lately. Todays Asia session has a surprise liquidity sweep, we are anticipating a pullback from this high 2628.27 with stops above 2638.724. Target the 2592 levels. Always use proper risk management and don't risk what you can't afford to loose. Cheers and best of luck, gwg.
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 100.483
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Suggests Upside PotentialDXY Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Suggests Upside Potential
The Dollar Index (DXY) recently bottomed following an extended period of consolidation, marking the end of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern on the chart. This phase of accumulation indicates that the dollar has likely built enough momentum for a bullish move. In the near term, I expect DXY to rise toward 101.6, followed by further strength taking it to 105.55 by the end of the year. As the accumulation phase transitions into a markup phase, the dollar is set for a period of appreciation.
Russell 2000 Gearing Up for a Breakout at Structural ResistanceThe Russell 2000 is closing in on the upper boundary of its structural zone around the 2276 mark, with bullish momentum pushing broader indices toward record levels. This wave of optimism could also lift the Russell 2000 to new heights.
On the daily chart, the index is once again approaching the critical 2276 level. In shorter time frames, fresh bullish formations are emerging, hinting at the potential for continued upward momentum.
Should the price break past the 2240 threshold, the chances of further upside grow significantly. A decisive move above this zone would likely drive the Russell 2000 higher, opening the door for more gains.
Wait for the breakout to come for the trade to be active.
Traders, if you found this idea helpful or have your own insights to share, feel free to drop a comment. I’d love to hear your thoughts!
XAU/USD : Will Gold Reach $3000? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has risen to $2640, marking a new high. These days, we are witnessing gold setting new all-time highs daily, and many analysts, including myself, expect that if the downward trend in interest rates and the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continue, we could potentially see gold rise to $3000 in the mid-term. However, if the price closes below $2640 today and doesn't break a new high, we could expect a correction down to $2617 as the first target. Gold is currently trading around $2632.
EUR/USD : Euro will Fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around the 1.11360 level. I expect the price to rise to 1.11560 to fill the FVG, and after seeing a suitable negative reaction, we can look to join with another Sell position! (This analysis will be updated).
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Levels discussed during livestream24th September
DXY: Currently just below 101, needs to break 100.85 for more downside to 100.60 support level.
NZDUSD: Look for reaction at round number resistance 0.63
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6810 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3380 SL 30 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 15 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 143.70 SL 50 TP 155
USDCHF: Sell 0.8460 SL 25 TP 50
USDCAD: Do Nothing, in the middle of support / resistance level
Gold: Upside to continue, looking to buy dips, up to 2650
Reading The Tape on USDJPY (ICT) - 24th Sept 2024 In this video I practice reading the tape using ICT Concepts, as well as offering general advice to those using his concepts or otherwise.
I hope that you find this video insightful. If you have any questions, leave a comment and I will be glad to answer.
- R2F