Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff.
Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up.
Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting.
The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles.
Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session.
These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
J-DXY
Fed Rate: How to Trade Gold Amidst Market Uncertainty?
The excitement is building as the Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision—whether it's a 25 or 50 basis point cut. Will gold reach new highs or begin a downward trend? Let’s wait and see.
From a personal perspective, I'm not particularly concerned about the impact on trading. Whether the market moves up or down, it will eventually return to the current price levels. Especially after a surge, there’s no need to worry too much.
For those trading today, do not set stop losses on short positions. If gold rises, simply add to your position or hedge by opening long trades. The 2600 level is a critical resistance point, and even if it breaks through due to the announcement, it won’t hold for long without a retracement. At that point, simply close your long positions and add more short positions.
This trading strategy should be helpful for those looking to navigate the volatility. Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments!
$USINTR -Fed Cuts Rates by 50 BPS ECONOMICS:USINTR
- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 4.75%-5% in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks.
It is the first rate cut since March 2020 after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades.
Will Feds decision of cutting 50bps tumble the markets in spite of fear for U.S and Global Markets indicating Recession brewing around the corner ?
GOLD → Lower interest rates are ahead. A stalemate... ↑↓FX:XAUUSD is consolidating between 2588 - 2562. But, buyers are not yet out of the game in the hope of continued growth. Then everything depends on the Fed. Welcome to the casino :)
At 18:30 the FOMC & FED will meet to decide whether to cut rates. 0.25% or 0.5%. A 0.5% Fed rate cut could send a mixed signal about the state of the US economy: the Fed's concern about the economy, and that a “soft landing” may not turn out to be so soft, but it would be a strong bullrun signal for gold. A weaker policy, could provoke an unpredictable reaction, which would temporarily disappoint investors. In such a case, a correction to 2550-2525-2500 may form (price may bounce from any zone shown on the chart) before a further global rally, as the general tone of the market is set by the global Central Bank's interest rate cuts....
Resistance levels: 2575, 2588, 2600, ...
Support levels: 2561, 2550, 2530
It is difficult to say about expectations, as the uncertainty is high due to the fact that the overall situation is stalemate, either this way or that way. I recommend to refrain from trading on the news and wait for the volatility to decrease . The trading range for today is very wide....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★
FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Sell EURUSD Channel Breakout (FOMC) The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1117, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1076
2nd Support – 1.1051
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1152. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.093
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 100.719.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 101.379 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Pre FOMC Rates Decision Analysis18th September
DXY: Consolidate around 100.90, (if 50bps cut) needs to break 100.60 to trade down to 100 round number support. (if 25bps cut) bounce from 100.60 to bearish trendline
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6220 SL 25 TP 75 (DXY weakness)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6780 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness)
GBPUSD: Look for test and reject of resistance area, Sell 1.32 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 25 TP 50 OR Sell 1.1110 SL 20 TP 50 (Straddle)
USDJPY: Buy 142.80 SL 50 TP 150 (DXY strength)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 45 (DXY weakness)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
Gold: Could range between 2570 and 2590, Looking for a test of 2600 and possible correction lower
EURUSD 1.11305 -0.02% SHORT MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS + DXYHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at The EURUSD At the close of ASIA GOING INTO THE LONDON, TO NY PM SESSION
* With a bullish run into Monday CLOSE (PO3) today will be looking for some retracement.
* looking at the daily last week Friday failed to take high which is a sign of weakness on EU.
* Looking at the IFVG below as targets as well.
* even though the -OB is violated looking for a retracement.
* on the 4H looking for a bullish open to take ASIA high LQ.
* PO3
* Push higher before going for lower structures.
* looking for an aggressive move above out of the range to sweep.
* and aggressive in.
* this where I would look for entries short.
* Looking for the take of that ERL.
* with two possible OTE ( ASIA HIGHS, AND LONG TERM HIGH) , EXECUTION IS BASED ON RR & RISK MANAGEMENT.
* DXY 4H
- Will wait for the DXY to take ASIA lows and trade back in the range as a confirmation as well...
* BASED on the price action served next session...
* We will see what does the market dish.
🤷♂️😉🐻📉🐮📈
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
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Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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* ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Bullish on Gold and Silver | Long-Term As I mentioned in the previous post on DXY, my bias on the US Dollar index is bearish for the first half of September. Also, as the seasonality of Gold and Silver suggests, September is a negative month for these two cousins. So, in my opinion (not investment advice), in the last week of September and the first week of October, we might see good lows on Gold and Silver.
Remember, we cannot time the market, for now, I anticipate the lows to form at the end of September because the seasonality and the price action support this narrative for me. Also, the market is expecting the first rate cut on September 18, which, I believe, Gold and Silver already priced in that sentiment to some degree.
We can expect Gold to go as low as 2450$ before it attacks 2600$, and silver to revisit the 25$ - 26$ area after 4 months (the red scenario). I like the chart formation on Silver as it formed a very bullish structure on monthly and weekly charts. That's why I also put the yellow scenario which suggests Silver would dance around the 28$ level before it breaks out the 30$ and continue its journey towards 36$.
GOLD BULLISH TO $2,604 - $2,630 (UPDATE)Running 130 PIPS in profit so far for us! If Gold don't form Wave IV today, then it should form during FOMC tomorrow evening at 7PM. Don't forget that markets are always choppy ahead of any huge fundamentals. These choppy price actions always trap early buyers & sellers before liquidating them!
Yet Pending👇🏻
1. Wave IV correction (A,B,C Sub-Wave)
2. Wave V (W,X,Y Sub-Wave) as the final bullish leg UP!
Gold Bearish to $2.558!On the overall weekly TF, Gold has now completed a 5 wave bullish cycle. I am now expecting a reversal to start back to the downside, targeting the $2,400 zone.
It's possible market can push a little higher towards the early $2,600 zone. But overall, from a weekly aspect Gold is ready for a long awaited reversal. If we get any strong rejections around $2,558 we might see 1 final leg up towards $2,600 but it is nothing to worry about!
DXY: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 100.706
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
GBP/USD : Another Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBPUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after a recent correction, the price has once again reached the significant supply zone we've marked on the chart. I expect to see a price correction from this area soon. Wait for a suitable trigger. (This analysis will be updated)
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Levels discussed on livestream 17th September 17th September
DXY: Ranging between 100.60 and 100.90
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6220 SL 25 TP 50 (Hesitation at 0.6245)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6740 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Look for test and reject of resistance area, Sell 1.32 SL 30 TP 80 (COUNTER TREND)
EURUSD: Buy 1.1145 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: (IHS) Buy 141.55 SL 60 TP 180
Trend Following: Sell 140.10 SL 30 TP 70
USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 45
USDCAD: Ranging 1.3565 and 1.36
Gold: Currently at 2584, could trade higher to 2600
DXY about to break down?The DXY looks like it could start to break down below 100. If we get a weekly close below the grey box I think we see stocks and crypto perform very well. FED interest rate decision coming up as well this week with markets expecting a cut in rates, combined with DXY breaking down, would be cause for a strong move up in markets. We could however, see a hard landing after a small spik.
S&p 500 daily time frame Hello traders,
I have observing a potential manipulation zone in the S&P 500. This suggests that the price might be artificially influenced, potentially leading to a rejection from this level. Waiting for the New York time zone for confirmation is a smart move.
Here's why:
* **Manipulation Zones:** These are areas where large players (institutions, hedge funds) might be trying to influence the price to their advantage. This can create false signals and make it difficult to predict the true direction.
* **New York Time Zone:** The New York time zone is crucial because it's when US markets open, and many large institutional players are active. Watching the price action during this period can give you a better idea of how the market is reacting to the potential manipulation.
**Remember:** Never rely on one signal alone. Always confirm your analysis with multiple indicators and the overall market context before making any trading decisions.
Good luck with your trades!