Levels discussed on Livestream 3rd September3rd September
DXY: Still in consolidation. Watch the resistance at 102 round number. Looking for downside, needs to break 101.50 (23.6%), could trade down to 101.15
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6205 SL 20 TP 60
AUDUSD: Retracing, could retest 0.68 resistance level
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3170 SL 40 TP 90
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.10 round number support level
USDJPY: Sell 145.70 SL 250 TP 80
USDCHF: Could trade higher, look for reaction at resistance level
USDCAD: Could trade lower, look for reaction at support 1.3440
Gold: Choppy price action, until 2508, beyond that, could trade up to 2520
J-DXY
DXY - US Dollar Strengthens Above 101.70 Market AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing renewed strength, climbing above the 101.70 mark after a relatively flat Monday. This move extends the momentum from last week, where the DXY gained over 1%. As the market braces for key labor data later this week, all eyes are on the August jobs report, set to be released on Friday. This report is expected to reveal a solid increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could provide further support to the US Dollar.
Technical Analysis: Reversal from Key Demand Area
From a technical standpoint, the DXY has already exhibited a significant reversal from a key Demand area around 100.535. As forecasted, the price rebounded from the 100.515 level, confirming the strength of this support zone. This reversal was anticipated based on previous analysis, and it has played out as expected, setting the stage for the current bullish momentum.
Sentiment and Seasonal Trends Support a Bullish Outlook
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report adds an interesting layer to the analysis, showing that retail traders are aggressively short on the US Dollar. This aggressive short positioning often acts as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that there might be further upside potential for the DXY.
Additionally, seasonal trends are aligning with a possible bullish rally in the US Dollar. Historically, this period has seen increased demand for the USD, and the current setup appears to be following that pattern. When combining the COT data with the technical bounce from the Demand area, the outlook for the US Dollar remains positive.
Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting USD Strength
The DXY's move above 101.70 is supported by a confluence of technical and sentiment factors. The reversal from the Demand area, coupled with the contrarian signal from the COT report and favorable seasonality, all point towards a continued increase in the value of the US Dollar. As the market awaits the crucial NFP report on Friday, the stage is set for potential further gains in the DXY, reinforcing our bullish outlook for the US Dollar.
Previous Forecast
✅ Please share your thoughts about USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
DXY- Where to?After forming a double top above the 106 level, with the second top occurring at the beginning of July, the DXY (US Dollar Index) began to decline.
After breaking the 104 neckline of this pattern, the index tumbled to the key support level at 100.50, which coincides with the price level from the start of the year.
As expected, the price started to recover, and at the time of writing, it is trading at 101.66. Although there has been a rebound from support, it's too early to consider the trend reversed. For a confirmed reversal, the price needs to break back above the 102.50 zone.
If this happens, the price could continue upward, with a longer-term target around the 106 level and an interim resistance at 104.
Conversely, if the index fails to break above 102.50 and drops back to 100.50, there is a high probability of a further decline, with 98 as the next target.
CRB Index: Impact on Commodities, Inflation, and the DollarIt’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory.
When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced.
Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2497, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2522
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2489. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Sell EURUSD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1060, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1015
2nd Support – 1.0988
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1100 This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Will the dollar bounce back from its current decline?
The US July PCE was in line with market consensus. Headline PCE prices rose 0.2% from a month ago and 2.5% from a year ago, which aligns with market expectations. Core PCE, the Fed's price benchmark, rose only 0.16%, slower than the previous month's 0.18%. This is the lowest level this year and has catalyzed the market sentiment of the Fed’s rate cut.
It is worth noting that despite a 0.3% increase in personal income, surpassing the previous month's 0.2%, the savings rate remains alarmingly low. This is because personal consumption expenditures are growing at a faster rate than personal income.
The current savings rate has dropped to 2.9%, marking only the second instance in the past 16 years, since the global financial crisis, the savings rate has fallen to the 2% range.
This implies that consumption in the United States could decline quickly, serving as a cautionary signal that if employment falters, there may be insufficient buffers to sustain consumption.
DXY sustained its uptrend after breaking out of the descending channel and advanced to 101.60. The price consolidates around the 101.50-101.70 range, waiting for an additional price trigger.
If the price breaches the resistance at 101.80 while holding above the EMA, the price may gain upward momentum toward 102.60. Conversely, if DXY fails to stay above both EMAs and retreats to the support at 100.50, the price could fall further to the 100.00 threshold.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 101.53
1st Support: 101.16
1st Resistance: 102.144
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY (1h timeframe )hello dear traders
this price acton for dollar curency index .... this is my personal opinion....
fundamental reason:
While British fund manager abdrn predicts that the U.S. economy will see a soft landing, there is still the risk of a prolonged slowdown in 2025, said Kenneth Akintewe, the company’s head of Asian Sovereign Debt.
Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and should the U.S. Federal Reserve already be easing? Akintewe questioned on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
In the U.S. on Friday, data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, as expected. The data seems to back a smaller rate cut...
FULL DXY ANALYSISHello my wonderful community !
it’s been a while I posted.
I really appreciate you guys for reviewing my charts
Kindly like and comment on how you feel the market will go , I’m open to learn and communicate with other hardworking traders on here.
The colors for each line/zone
Monthly - Yellow
Weekly - Orange
Daily - Green
4H - Red
1H - Purple
My Monthly chart view:
Ever since 2010, price has been in an uptrend by making higher highs and higher lows.
Price keeps breaking major resistance areas and turning them to dynamic support areas and respects the EMA 50 anytime it makes a correction.
Take note as price is trending upwards and respecting the channel constructed.
My Weekly chart view:
Going into the weekly TimeFrame, it is truly clear that price entered a range from 2017 until 2022 before the bulls came in fully in early 2022 and made an Uptrend and breaking the resistance with bullish candles before exerting a correction and respecting the newly formed support.
My Daily chart view:
I also noticed a range forming due to this same correction between the areas marked in red.
Notice the double top indicating a reversal after the break of the neck line. After the invalidation of the Red daily trend line by the break with bearish engulfing candle, The bears take full control driving the price down to an area of Demand.
Price is in a downtrend as this is due to the correction observed in the bigger timeframe
To play safe i feel i can capture a buy setup after the break and retest of the upper red resistance but that will take forever.
My 4H chart view:
I capitalized on this trade by executing based on my trading strategy with a nice sell setup after the break of the neckline with a risk: reward of 1:2.
So I’ll go further and look for buy Setups as we are in this same 4H time frame
Price currently approached an Area of Demand (this area also serves as a major support zone and has been respected multiple times )and bulls seems to be coming in strong with rising momentum.
My 1H chart view:
Sometimes we just have to go further with the believe that the market will reveal its hand , so I’m patiently waiting for buy setups as price is gaining momentum with the EMA 14 crossing over the EMA 50 and price still respecting the area of Demand and major support zone.
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 101.728.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 100.553 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Navigating Critical Market Levels: DXY & NAS100 Analysis👀 👉 The DXY and NAS100 are currently at pivotal points, with price action flashing caution signals. The DXY is probing key liquidity levels, while both DXY and NAS100 are showing signs of structural shifts in their trends. It could be prudent to approach the market cautiously today, waiting to see how the USD develops during the New York session and into Tuesday.
Disclaimer: The insights shared in this video are for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📊✅
DXY: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.820
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Happy Labour Day!2nd September
DXY: Within the bullish channel, (upside) could trade up to 102 resistance, needs to break 101.80. Downside only if price breaks below 101.50 (23.6%)
NZDUSD: look for reaction at 0.6220, Sell 0.62 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6810 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Sell 1.31 SL 40 TP 65
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.10 round number support level
USDJPY: Look for reaction at 147 resistance level
USDCHF: Sell 0.8460 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Buy 1.3525 SL 20 TP 70
Gold: Break above 2500 to trade up to 2515 and 2530, needs to stay above 2480
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) Ascending Triangle in H1The XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2513.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2485
2nd Support – 2461.50
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2530. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.