US Dollar DXY View it is trying to move upside, overall gold can fall and even have to do correction.
J-DXY
Markets Slowing Down Ahead of NFP, What To Lookout ForHey There,
The dollar has been in demand so far this week, boosted by it being seen as a safe-haven amid political turmoil in both South Korea and Europe as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
With France’s government facing “No Confidence votes” that could spell the end of the short-lived administration of Prime Minister Michael Barnier, pushing the country into uncharted waters of political chaos.
Gold Prices rose marginally as political turmoil in South Korea spurred some safe haven demand along with fears of a collaps in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. However, trades continue to remain on the sidelines amid anticipation for more cues on U.S interest rates.
But any gains in gold were largely limited by a spike in the dollar as it soared on uncertainty over the long term outlook for U.S rates.
XAUUSD - China, still buying gold?!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. The continuation of the movement of gold depends on the failure or failure of this channel, and you can trade in that direction. In case of breaking the bottom of the channel, we can see the continued decline and see the demand zone and buy within that range with the appropriate risk reward. Maintaining the channel has paved the way for gold to rise to the supply zone, and gold can be sold within that zone.
Recent credible research analyzing undisclosed purchases since May 2024 confirms that China has been secretly buying gold. A recent analysis has validated long-held suspicions that, since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has been a significant and covert buyer of gold beyond officially reported levels. Goldman Sachs had previously hinted at such activity, and new findings by the analyst at Money Metals further substantiate this claim.
According to the report, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) discreetly purchased approximately 60 tons of gold in September alone. This trend has been ongoing since May 2024, with evidence suggesting a drawdown from London reserves dating back to May this year. While the PBOC has not reported any gold purchases since April, Goldman Sachs’ NowCast data estimates that around 50 tons of institutional gold purchases were conducted by China in May through the over-the-counter (OTC) market in London.
This strategy is not unique to China. Other nations, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, also employ similar tactics to accumulate gold discreetly while avoiding price spikes. The covert nature of these transactions reflects their intent to bolster reserves while maintaining low market prices.
One market analyst has cautioned investors hoping for a Christmas rally in gold prices to proceed with caution, as recent volatility may signal a peak in prices, at least for this year.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted in his latest report that gold has consistently experienced price increases in December over the past seven years. However, he warned that while recent price corrections might attract bargain hunters in the final month of 2024, gold’s current high prices remain a risk factor.
In his note, Hansen stated that the greatest challenge is the 28.3% rise in gold prices this year, bringing it close to the 29.6% growth seen in 2010 and 31% in 2007. While the fundamental supportive outlook for 2025 remains intact, such significant growth could prompt profit-taking and position adjustments before the year ends.
Hansen predicted that while gold may struggle to achieve new highs in December, his outlook for 2025 remains bullish, with prices expected to reach $3,000 in the new year. He added that geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support the precious metal as a safe haven.
At the same time, the introduction of new trade tariffs on U.S. imports next year is generally perceived as a positive factor for the U.S. dollar. However, the side effects of a stronger dollar could ripple through the global economy, particularly affecting countries reliant on dollar-denominated debt, commodity trade, and export-driven growth. This dynamic might sustain interest in alternative investments like gold and silver.
Hansen further emphasized that Trump’s plans for tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration policies could exacerbate inflation and debt—two key risks that gold investors seek to hedge against.
GOLD → Consolidation. Which way will the momentum go?FX:XAUUSD in consolidation phase. The market is nervous because of misunderstanding of further actions in anticipation of news. What to expect and what can happen?
The US labor market is stronger than expected, but the dollar remained cold amid expectations of more important news. At the moment, there is a 75% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. But, the dollar is still in demand due to the unstable geopolitical background. At the moment gold depends on the US employment data, ADP and Powell's speech
Bad employment data may increase the probability of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. And vice versa. But, this background is unlikely to create a medium-term potential for gold..... Also, in the perspective of NFP...
Technically, gold is in consolidation and the price exit from the flag boundaries may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The probability of a further fall is a little higher...
Resistance levels: 2651, 2660
Support levels: 2636, 2618
Gold continues to test the support 2636, which only increases the probability of a breakdown and further fall. But on the background of the news, the price may test the resistance before a further fall
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
USDCAD - CAD Vs tariffs!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. You can sell up to the bottom of the ascending channel within the specified supply zone with the appropriate risk reward.
The Canadian dollar has underperformed against other currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of Canada’s consistent interest rate cuts. It is expected that the central bank will lower interest rates for the fifth time in December, though the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut has diminished following a higher-than-expected inflation report.
The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still foresee the possibility of a larger rate cut. Meanwhile, per capita GDP data reveals that economic growth has declined for the sixth consecutive period. Monthly GDP figures indicate that growth in September and October was only 0.1%.
According to CIBC, domestic demand remained relatively stable during this time, comparable to the previous quarter. However, monthly data shows that the third quarter ended with gradual deceleration rather than the sharp rebound initially expected, leading to significantly lower fourth-quarter forecasts compared to the projections in October’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
RBC maintains its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut but has stated that Friday’s employment report will be closely monitored ahead of the central bank’s December 11 meeting.
“GDP numbers reinforce the notion that current interest rates are higher than necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The Bank of Canada will also closely monitor next week’s labor market data, but a further 50-basis-point cut in December is likely,” an analyst remarked.
Currently, the Bank of Canada projects 2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised downward. With government forecasts suggesting population declines, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach for 2025.
Deputy Governor Mendes of the Bank of Canada stated that inflation is gradually easing and will eventually stabilize at 2%. Lower inflation will boost consumer and business confidence, encouraging spending and investment. If the economy evolves as anticipated, further rate cuts could be possible. However, he emphasized that decisions will be made step-by-step, considering both above-target and below-target inflation. Mendes warned that additional measures to curb inflation might hurt economic growth, with potentially more negative long-term consequences than short-term benefits.
According to Axios, a senior Canadian Liberal minister involved in Sunday’s negotiations stated that Canadian officials plan to “visibly and robustly” enhance border security following a meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries due to his concerns over migrants and drugs entering the U.S.
Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, told CBC Radio and Television that Canadian officials met with Trump and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs and their implications for the economy. LeBlanc stressed that existing border security cooperation remains strong but noted concerns over firearm smuggling from the U.S.
LeBlanc also shared that during an informal dinner with Trudeau, Trump jokingly suggested that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. He clarified that the comment was made in jest and was not meant seriously.
Copper - Markets await employment data!In the 4H timeframe, copper is located between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell copper in the next supply zone. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward
The governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has stated that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy in 2025. The bank also aims to promote sustainable development in the real estate and capital markets through effective utilization of structural monetary policy tools.
Meanwhile, the United States has imposed new export restrictions designed to curtail China’s ability to advance its high-tech semiconductor industry and slow the development of military applications for artificial intelligence (AI).
In response, the China Internet Association has expressed that these restrictions will significantly harm the healthy and sustainable growth of China’s internet industry. The association has also urged domestic companies to exercise caution when purchasing American chips and to seek expanded cooperation with chip manufacturers from other countries.
In a retaliatory move, China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced a ban on exporting key rare earth metals to the U.S. and is considering stricter reviews for graphite exports. These raw materials are critical for industries such as semiconductors, military systems, electric vehicle batteries, and solar technologies. The ongoing trade tensions between the two nations could have far-reaching consequences for both sides.
In the U.S., it is anticipated that November’s employment figures will reflect recovery after being weighed down by recent storms and a major strike.This aligns with a labor market that remains healthy but is gradually normalizing. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) likely increased by 200,000 in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
As the Boeing strike ends and recovery efforts from recent storms begin, November’s job report is expected to be less affected by unusual factors. However, a consistent decline in job openings, moderate employment growth, and layoff plans from companies like Boeing and General Motors indicate a softer labor market overall. These developments, along with Friday’s employment data, could significantly influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations for interest rate cuts.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. construction industry is facing new challenges. The Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies have left homebuilders in a vulnerable position. New tariffs and restrictions on immigrant labor are two key pressures confronting the industry.
For instance, McKinney, Texas, which two decades ago was accessible only via a two-lane highway, has now grown to a city of over 200,000 residents, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. This city’s development has relied heavily on immigrant labor and industries dependent on imported steel and commodities. However, recent policies are imposing new challenges, leaving homebuilders grappling with even greater difficulties.
A Brief 57-Year History of the DollarThe year 1971, when the Bretton Woods system ended, marked a period where the dollar's value followed a volatile trajectory of ups and downs—until 2008.
The global financial crisis was another turning point, and since then, the dollar has been steadily appreciating. This trend is expected to continue, at least until another significant pivot point emerges.
Will such a critical turning point occur during Trump’s second term? That remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: the dollar seems poised to keep gaining value.
04.12.24 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:CADCHF
FX:AUDUSD
FX:USDJPY
FX:EURAUD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
XAUUSD This is a forecast, I'm look to take sell position on GOLD, now it's busy liquidating. So we should expect a big sell movement.
So don't be left out when it sells.
DXY is showing possible buy opportunity, giving us more reason why we should be selling GOLD.
Sell GBP/USD Triangle PatternThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2650
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2585
2nd Support – 1.2550
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
A break below 2635 could prompt a steeper decline for XAUUSDTechnical Perspective:
Gold hovers between the 2635 - 2650 range and holds above the short-term ascending trend line. If the price closes below the 2635 support with a bearish breakout of the ascending channel, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 2610.00. Conversely, a break above 2650 could prompt a further rise toward the following resistance at 2665.
Fundamental Perspective:
Gold consolidated as investors weighed the political and economic outlook while awaiting key economic data. A stronger-than-expected US job openings report pointed to resilience in the labor market, with markets now focused on Friday's non-farm payrolls and upcoming speeches from Fed officials to gauge potential policy moves. The likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve, now at 73%, supports gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the asset. Additionally, geopolitical risks continue to bolster gold's safe-haven appeal.
Elsewhere, Asian markets were rattled after South Korean President Yoon's unexpected decision to impose martial law, only to swiftly reverse course hours later, causing stocks to tumble initially.
The Kospi Index dropped as much as 2%, with South Korean assets seeing widespread losses overnight, while equities in Sydney slipped and Tokyo markets opened flat.
Despite the turmoil, South Korea's central bank signaled readiness to intervene if necessary, soothing market concerns.
Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe,
Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness
Sell EUR/USD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0500, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0442
2nd Support – 1.040
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
GBP/USD --> Counter-Trend Correction Before Further DeclineFX:GBPUSD during the correction process, the price has reached the area of interest and resistance from which further bearish momentum can be expected, in the context of the dollar returning to its upward trend.
Overall, the market continues to struggle around the 1.267 area, which is considered a strong support zone. However, buyers appear to have limited opportunities to push the price higher as the dollar strengthens, fueled by Trump’s policies that exert significant pressure on the forex market.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is attempting to break out of the main range, testing the key support level. However, with the price currently testing strong support, we might see a corrective move toward the 1.275–1.285 area (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) before resuming the downtrend. It is also worth emphasizing the 1.256–1.248 range. A break and consolidation below this zone would confirm the bears’ intentions.
BITCOIN SELL TO $86,000 (UPDATE)We've seen a lot of profit taking on BTC by the bigger, institutional firms, leading to a liquidation of $443 Million in the past 12 hours. Believe it or not, $443 Million is nothing for the Crypto market.
As BTC melts lower towards our Wave C (Major Wave 4) price zone, we will see liquidation of retail traders go within the BILLIONS in loss. Don't say I didn't warn you to protect you😉
DXY "DOLLAR INDEX" Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHii! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
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Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe
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GOLD → Consolidation. One step away from distribution...FX:XAUUSD is faltering a bit due to high risks before the news. In the moment a strong impulse can be formed. The price is consolidating in the local range. Earlier, the price broke the local upward support....
Traders are consolidating in anticipation of economic data. Volatility is decreasing, speculators are not ready to take risks yet, all attention is focused on PMI, Powell's speech on Thursday and NFP on Friday... A rebound in US dollar demand early Tuesday kept gold buyers on the back foot. China's ongoing economic problems and the threat of global tariffs from Trump, geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe and escalating conflict in the Middle East continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
The future direction of the gold price is likely to depend on upcoming employment data and its impact on expectations of a Fed rate cut
Resistance levels: 2660, 2655
Support levels: 2634, 2618, 2605
Since there is no even direction on the market and the price is inside the channel, we will consider trading from its borders. Therefore, a false break of the key resistance may provoke a fall to the support of the range.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Price action has been playing PERFECTLY & following the arrows I drew out on the first analysis! Price has been ranging as I expected & currently in the process of creating a 'flat correction' according to my EW Theory strategy.
However, I will be careful as it is a new month so I wouldn't be surprised if price shoots up so the monthly candle can grab liquidity & create a wick. Keeping an eye out for this option.
XAU/USD (Gold) - H1 - Triangle BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2652
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 2711
2nd Resistance – 2748
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
US Dollar index feels tiredIntraday Update: The US Dollar index has a rising trend line at 105.90's, and the 50% retracement of the last leg move higher is at 105.80 and the 127% ext at 105.52 will remains key support. If broken, we should see a move stronger move lower of the trend higher since late September.
DXY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 106.245.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 105.683 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
03.12.24 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:AUDCHF
FX:CADCHF
FX:USDJPY
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
Delusional Bulls? $QQQIt's really hard to ignore this. People screaming new highs!! Like what?! This is basic no? We'll find out on the next episode of Dragonball Z.
USD/JPY - H1 - Bearish Flag The USD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 150.80, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 149.20
2nd Support – 148.50
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
