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J-DXY

GOLD → Correction ahead of PPI before falling to $2470FX:XAUUSD on the news continues its bearish rally. The price is breaking the structure of 2547. A false breakdown and counter-trend correction may form before PPI and Powell's speech... Demand for the dollar rises at the expense of gold. Trump-led euphoria continues to support the index despite relatively weak CPI data and the stance of Fed policymakers. In the medium term, the focus is on the next Fed rate meeting. The most likely scenario is a 0.25% rate cut. Bulls in gold are likely to have to reassess their medium-term targets as the dollar's rise caused by Trump's trade is outweighed despite the Fed's relatively dovish stance. For today, all eyes are on Powell's speech and PPI and jobless claims. Technically, gold is testing the important level of 2546 as part of a strong decline. A false breakdown and correction is possible. Resistance levels: 2577, 2589, 2595 Support levels: 2546, 2531, 2500 Before the news, a rebound to the imbalance zone or local resistance may be formed in the hope to win back the losing positions of those who have not yet managed to leave the market. I expect that after the correction the price will continue its decline. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
GOLD → How long will the correction last? Emphasis on 2590FX:XAUUSD after a false breakdown of 2546 forms a pullback and tests 2577. It is quite adequate reaction after such a strong fall. The fundamental background is still negative, and the dollar is accelerating its growth. Ambiguous economic data from China increased economic concerns. Uncertainty about future interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve also continues to weigh on the markets, especially after Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut rates as the economy is still growing, the labor market is robust and inflation is still above the 2% target. Now all eyes are on the all-important retail sales report.... Technically, it is worth paying attention to 0.5-0.7 fibo and resistance at 2589. A false breakdown and consolidation below these areas may trigger a fall. Resistance levels: 2577, 2589, 2594. Support levels: 2546, 2531, 2500 At the moment, gold is hinting that the pullback up may be a bit prolonged. Most likely MM will go for liquidity (above these levels) before the news. False breakout may provoke bears to activity, which will only strengthen the sales. But, a rebound from 0.5 fibo and a smooth return to 2546 will increase the chances of a breakdown and fall. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
DXY: Highly overbought on 1D. Excellent short.The U.S. Dollar Index has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.223, MACD = 0.950, ADX = 43.535) as the current weekly candle is only a few clicks away from the top of the 2 year consolidation Rectangle pattern. Even the 1W RSI (67.108) is about to turn overbought but has already reached the top of the 1 year R1 Zone. All the above create the conditions for the perfect long term short. Our target is the 1W MA200 (TP = 101.750), which supported the price during the bearish wave of July-August. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYShort
by InvestingScope
1
This is the only Dollar chart you’ll need for 2025The current strong recovery of the US dollar is largely Trump-related, as his policies suggest that the economy could expand, potentially leading to higher inflation and rates to counteract it. It’s important to recognize that this move since the end of October is a type of euphoria or optimism surrounding Trump. However, once Trump actually takes office, we may see new flows and trend directions emerge. In Trump’s previous term, the dollar turned lower quite aggressively, topping in December 2016/ January 2017. I’m wondering if we could see a similar price action this time. In Elliott wave terms, we should definitely be aware of a potential reversal. Looking at the current chart, we see five waves down followed by an ABC recovery—the most basic and clear Elliott wave structure. The five-wave decline signals a bearish trend starting in 2022/23, and the current pause could set up for another drop in the dollar. Always when you track a correction or a counter-trend move, watch for a three-wave pattern before concluding that the dollar has reached a resistance point. Currently, wave C is still ongoing, possibly in its late stages, though it hasn’t yet reached the 108 level, which is likely an important reversal area. This zone aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a key for the final stages of corrective retracement. To me, this suggests that the dollar could potentially sell off next year. Now, you may be wondering what this means for other markets. It depends on the catalyst behind the dollar’s turn. If a recession triggers it, stocks might also face downside pressure. Alternatively, if the dollar weakens due to extreme inflows into other assets, particularly stocks, then equities could continue pushing higher. A lot of of money is still on the sideline, and is likely waiting for new opportunities, and if stocks will keep pushing up, funds could shift from the dollar to stocks, potentially creating a blow-off top. This could mean that 2025 might be an “interesting” year for stocks, with potential for a major reversal. Grega
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the Hawkish Federal Reserve!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 30-minute timeframe. In case of breaking the resistance range or correction with low momentum, we can witness the continuation of the rise and see the limited supply and sell in that range with the appropriate risk reward. Inflation Outlook and Economic Policies in the US and Their Impact on Markets Consumer Price Increase in the US and Gradual Decline in Inflationary Pressures • October Data: In October, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% compared to September. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) also increased by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations. • Expert Analysis: Dr. Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner from Commerzbank emphasized that while the data shows no significant progress, it indicates a gradual reduction in inflationary pressures. • Core inflation remains far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, holding steady at 0.3%, similar to August and September. • This suggests that inflation is likely to stay above the central bank’s target in the long term. • Trump’s Policies and Inflation: Economists predict that emerging economic policies under Trump, including higher tariffs and reduced immigration, may further strain the labor market and contribute to higher inflation in the long run. Jerome Powell’s Remarks and Market Reactions • No Need for Financial Policy Easing: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that given strong economic growth, a robust labor market, and inflation still above the 2% target, there is no immediate need for monetary policy easing. • Market Reaction: These comments raised concerns among investors, signaling a potential slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts. US Dollar Outlook • Stability and Growth of the Dollar: According to Barclays Investment Bank, the US dollar will maintain its upward trajectory due to economic resilience and shifting market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies. • Factors Supporting Dollar Strength: • Trump’s trade and fiscal policies, including higher tariffs and domestic initiatives, are key drivers of dollar strength. • Barclays projects the dollar will remain strong and continue its upward trend through 2025. • China’s efforts to boost its economy may have a limited impact on weakening the dollar but are unlikely to significantly disrupt its rising trajectory.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
DXY Will Go Up! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 7h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 106.564. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 107.267 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
GBPUSD - Is inflation under control in America?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The Governor of the Bank of England noted that the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not accurately indicate whether underlying inflation dynamics have been suppressed. There remains a risk of rising energy prices, and inflation within the services sector is notably resilient and persistent. He anticipates greater volatility ahead, with some inflationary drivers potentially shifting upwards. Additionally, according to new data from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, the inflation trend in the U.S. continues to remain above 2 percent. The Median CPI for the previous month was reported at 4.09 percent, a slight increase from 4.08 percent in the prior month. Since June, this measure has only seen a minor decline, from 4.15 percent to the current level. Median CPI is a monthly inflation indicator that measures price changes at the midpoint of a basket of goods. Although this method may differ from the standard CPI, it focuses on items that fall within the midpoint of the distribution. Charts within this report show that other inflation indicators are relatively stabilized, while the decline in the headline CPI is primarily due to a drop in energy prices, which is considered a temporary factor. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, despite ongoing challenges, debt levels remain manageable. Although delinquency rates have risen, income growth continues to outpace household debt growth. In the third quarter, delinquency transition rates varied, with credit card delinquencies improving, while delinquency rates for auto loans and mortgages saw a decline. At the end of Q3, 3.5 percent of debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.2 percent in Q2. Overall delinquency rates also increased during this period. According to the data, credit card balances in Q3 rose 8.1 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching $1.17 trillion, marking an increase of around $24 billion from Q2. Additionally, mortgage balances increased by $75 billion in this period, reaching $12.59 trillion.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Gold to Correct Before PPI, Targeting $2470 As we examine the recent price action of XAU/USD, gold continues to exhibit a pronounced bearish trend amidst a robust wave of demand for the U.S. dollar. This ongoing downtrend has seen the metal consistently test and breach key support structures, recently breaking through the significant level of 2547. Traders are closely watching for signs of a potential false breakdown in this zone, which could pave the way for a temporary counter-trend correction. Such a move may set the stage for intraday opportunities, especially as we approach crucial economic events on the horizon, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) release and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech. This backdrop of gold’s decline is intensified by an uptick in dollar demand, which stems from a resurgence of optimism in the broader financial markets. The “Trump-led euphoria” has bolstered investor sentiment, leading to continued support for the U.S. dollar index. This dynamic persists despite mixed economic signals, such as softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and a relatively dovish tone from several Federal Reserve policymakers. In this climate, expectations have increasingly shifted toward the likelihood of a modest rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming meeting, with a 0.25% reduction considered the most probable outcome. For gold bulls, this strengthening dollar presents a formidable challenge, requiring a reassessment of medium-term targets. The recent surge in the dollar, largely propelled by renewed investor optimism and positioning around trade-related policies, has overshadowed the Fed’s relatively accommodative stance. Thus, even as the Fed hints at a softer approach, the dollar’s upward trajectory exerts pressure on gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, tilting the scales further toward a bearish outlook for XAU/USD. Today’s market focus centers squarely on Powell’s upcoming comments, along with the latest PPI data and weekly jobless claims report, which together could bring further clarity to the Fed’s policy direction and the broader economic outlook. Should Powell reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance, a potential dollar pullback might provide temporary relief for gold. However, with technical indicators signaling a robust downtrend, it seems likely that any rally in XAU/USD could be short-lived, making resistance levels crucial focal points. From a technical perspective, gold is currently testing the pivotal support at 2546, where a decisive close below this level could confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. This area could prompt a temporary rebound, potentially targeting resistance zones in the vicinity of 2577, 2589, and 2595. Such a move would align with a common market behavior observed during key news cycles—where a brief corrective rally emerges as traders seek to “win back” losing positions before ultimately resuming the trend in favor of the prevailing momentum. Immediate support levels to watch include 2546, 2531, and the round figure of 2500. A breakdown through these levels would reinforce the current downtrend and could attract further selling interest, with technical patterns suggesting the possibility of continued weakness in the absence of a strong fundamental catalyst. Ahead of the news, it’s plausible that XAU/USD could experience a corrective rebound toward local resistance or an imbalance zone, offering short-term trading opportunities for those anticipating a resumption of the downtrend post-correction. Market participants should be prepared for heightened volatility during Powell’s speech and the PPI release, as both events carry the potential to shift sentiment and trigger short-term price reactions. In summary, while there’s a possibility for a near-term correction in gold, the broader outlook remains bearish as dollar strength and a resilient equity market diminish gold’s appeal. For traders, closely monitoring resistance and support levels will be crucial in identifying profitable entry points amid the anticipated price swings.
FX:XAUUSD
by lonelyPlayer0
DXY reached the critical resistance zone. H4 15.11.2024 DXY reached the critical resistance zone 📉 Honestly, I didn't think they would push the dollar index to the final zone near 107 without a pullback, but they still did. Now they gave a clear reaction downwards and it is very possible that the correction has started. Of course, we cannot deny the possibility of retesting the highs and then continuing the fall, but in general, the first signs of reversal and culmination have already appeared. It is very desirable to close the week below 106.30 and then the idea of a false breakdown of the 2-year highs will be confirmed. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
XAGUSD - Silver will continue to rise?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the current economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend line is broken and the $30 range is maintained, we can see the continuation of the rise up to the level of $32. Over the past year, silver struggled to keep pace with gold, as gold reached multiple record highs while silver remained below $30 an ounce for a prolonged period. However, according to one analyst, this trend may shift in 2025, with the gold-to-silver ratio expected to moderate from its recent highs. Julian Wee, a market strategist at UBS, commented, “Gold remains a favored asset for portfolio risk hedging against various risks, but the shift from a ‘soft landing’ to ‘no landing’ argues for a balance between a defensive stance and exposure to economic growth. Silver, which has historically shown a high correlation with gold, may benefit more from increased industrial demand.” Wee highlighted that amid rising geopolitical tensions, gold has emerged as a preferred hedge. He noted that gold “has risen 35% this year alone, and demand has remained strong amid numerous risk events and declining global interest rates. At least for this month, gold has asserted itself as a hedge against slower economic growth and rising inflation.” He further remarked that silver, like gold, also exhibits an inverse relationship to risk aversion, thus serving a similar defensive role. “Amid resilient U.S. GDP growth, investors may find it beneficial to add to portfolios that maintain a strong defensive stance while gradually enhancing exposure to stronger economic growth,” he suggested. According to Wee, silver is expected to see increased demand due to its widespread use in sectors like technology and electric vehicles, as well as in LED production, solar panels, and medical applications owing to its antibacterial properties. Industrial demand will likely lead to higher demand for physically-backed ETFs. On the supply side, mine production is anticipated to remain limited in 2025. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, discussed various factors affecting productivity growth, including the rise of new businesses and workforce mobility. He also noted that automation has contributed to productivity improvements. Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy is restrictive, though the exact degree remains uncertain. He stated that the Federal Reserve has begun the process of rate reductions and is moving towards a neutral rate, underscoring the need for a gradual and careful approach. Powell suggested that slowing the pace of rate cuts could be appropriate if data permits. He mentioned that the current monetary policy is well-positioned, providing space for rate reductions if needed, though a careful approach remains necessary. Powell also referred to the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) reading, which showed a slight increase, but he believes the inflation trajectory remains on the right path. He stressed that monetary policy should neither be overly restrictive nor overly lenient.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND