GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. At their NOV policy decision, the BoE’s updated projections showed a deeper and longer recession than previously thought, as well as a stern push back against current market pricing for the...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE At their previous meeting the ECB hiked by another 75bsp, and with HICP >9% it should keep the bank hiking for now. ECB sources notes the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries...
USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is...
dxy is banded and cyclical. btc is the inverse reflection of this cycle because there are more and more dollars each dxy (fed) cycle. So much so that there are 2 scenarios: 1 where the fed keeps credibility (light blue fed normal in chart) and the cycle keeps being bounded. 2nd is when the fed does loses its credibility (green fed optimal in chart) and the cycle...
The U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY index snapped a 3-day winning streak and faced some selling pressure on Wednesday against the backdrop of the resumption of risk appetite across financial markets. At the time of writing, the DXY trades at the 106.35 area, recording a 0.47% loss after falling to a daily low of 106.29. The dollar failed to capitalize on the...
Analysis of #NZDCAD Hi traders, today we will have a look at #NZDCAD The NZDCAD has a similar setup to my AUDCAD idea as you see we have a perfectly clear uptrend, and clearly defined trendline support. the market has previously a strong resistance level which the market broke and move to the upside, the market now is expected to continue up, and we can look...
EUR/USD resistance is 1.0383 and 1.0418. Support is 1.0325 and 1.0294.
Analysis of #AUDCAD Hi traders, today we will have a look at #AUDCAD The AUDCAD also broke out of its resistance structure level as you can see, and the perfect way of trading now is to look for a trend continuation pattern such as a Flag pattern, or wedge pattern, Triangle pattern, or wait for the market to come and test the previous structure support now...
If we can't break blue area that's the target. We have still monthly and weekly support to retest.
The price had double bottom and I think it can touch top red line, it can be number 4 or can break up the line. It can affect most of charts.
Since this week we have been seeing poor price action , No clear bias of identifying strength or weakness , Expecting lower volume and volatility to be continue until US session today , where we have some important data & J Powell speech later in US session around 1.30 EST. Almost all the previous fundamental catalyst like unemployment data, improved CPI has...
After yesterday, the situation here is unchanged. We’re still not looking for trades and waiting for the right moment. Today and tomorrow there is news that will cause movement and will provide better trade opportunities. The sell option we’re looking at is that we already have a top and will look for a reaction around 1,0430 level. The buy option is at stop...
2 scenarios that can play out this week, preparing for the month of December to end off the year. Scenario 1 - Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a very hawkish stance during the FOMC meeting on Thursday 2am sgt. Continue rate hikes into early 2023, no slowing down of rate hike to lower inflation rates. I need to see strong economic data during NFP this Friday which...
Posting to keep track of this idea. On this given day, I am bullish on the dollar going into Powell speaking tomorrow 11/30/22 However, there has been a break of the rising wedge pattern that has held DXY up and made it so strong. The dollar will not want to roll over easily.
SPY is fast approaching the last demand zone, which is 390. If the dollar continues to strengthen, we can see see 390 very fast. Sure enough 390 is going to be a fighting zone between the bulls and the bears. A closure below 390 opens the door for some massive shorting to occur on the SPY. Will J Powell move the markets on Wednesday? Hmmm.....
There's a potential bottom forming on the DXY on the daily timeframe at the time of writing. Multiple rejection style candles confirm that there's demand at this zone (boxed)! To confirm the idea further, the 200 day SMA is sitting exactly at this level. There will be some big players entering this trade - longing USD and short EUR, maybe even shorting SPY. The...
I don’t think DXY is bottomed yet. Wait for down confirmation and we can expect to buy some USD related assets.