J-DXY
"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
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Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (4H UPDATE)While our short term 1H buy's didn't work out, our mid term sells on the 4H TF is proceeding nicely. Price is down 1,230 PIPS (4.18%) from its Wave 5 high at $2,956. We have MUCH MORE DOWNSIDE towards our $2,450 target, so if you haven't got in already, you have plenty more chances.
If any short term buy positions present themselves, I will try to share them here.
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold Analysis (#8)The market has been highly reactive following yesterday’s GDP and Unemployment Claims report. The DXY strengthened sharply, reaching a key resistance at 107.474. Previously, this level acted as a strong support and has now turned into a major resistance zone.
DXY Analysis
We need to consider multiple scenarios for the dollar index:
Most Likely Scenario: If DXY gets rejected from 107.474, we can look for short positions below 107.063, anticipating a continuation of the secondary downtrend in the daily timeframe.
Alternative Scenario: If DXY breaks above 107.474, it could continue strengthening toward 107.767, confirming that the correction is over and resuming the major uptrend.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis
Gold dropped below 2878.87, entering a price correction phase. Key support levels to watch:
2841.25 (Fib 50%)
2811
2790 (Strong demand zone)
Short Position Plan (1H Timeframe)
If gold finds support at 2855 (35% Fib), and later breaks it, a short entry could be considered.
If the drop continues, the next major short opportunity is at 2841.89 in the 4H timeframe.
Long Position Plan
A confirmed breakout above 2879.26 will indicate strength, making it a valid long entry point.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis
BTC has been experiencing significant downside pressure, aligning with the February 26 analysis where I highlighted the potential for a price correction within its major uptrend.
As mentioned earlier, losing 80-82K support would shift the market bias to bearish, favoring short positions. If you shorted BTC from 85K, this could be a great area to secure profits.
Currently, BTC lacks a clear structure, so I’m waiting for more confirmation before taking new positions.
What’s Next for BTC?
If BTC closes below 80K, we will need to reassess the market structure and update our strategy accordingly.
If BTC holds above this level, there is still a chance for a recovery and potential upside continuation.
However, if 80K is lost, the recovery process could take much longer than expected.
Final Thoughts
Stay patient and wait for clear market structures before entering trades. If you’re already in positions, manage them carefully based on these levels.
I’m Skeptic , and I’m grateful to be on this journey with you all. Trading is tough, but growing together makes it worthwhile. Stay profitable and see you tomorrow! 🚀💡
General Market Analysis - SMC Point of ViewIn this video I go through an analysis of DXY, EURUSD, USDCHF, OIL, and BTC. I also delve into why I think some short-term manipulation is happening and share my narrative.
I am not fond of giving a long description here when I give my analysis in the video, so please enjoy and share your thoughts.
- R2F Trading
DXY Correction Plays Out – Is a Reversal Next? Since the end of January, I have been anticipating a correction in the TVC:DXY , with a target around the 106 support level.
This correction has unfolded as expected, with the Dollar Index touching 106 on Monday, followed by another test and reversal yesterday.
A key observation is that since the early February spike, the DXY has been trading within a falling wedge—a pattern that often signals a potential reversal.
What’s Next?
✅ Bullish confirmation would come with a daily close above the 106.60–106.70 zone. If this happens, we could see a move up to 108.50, a key resistance level.
✅ Interim resistance sits at 107.30, which could also act as a potential target for bulls.
Trading Implications:
If the Dollar Index confirms an upside breakout, it could present selling opportunities in FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , and TRADENATION:NZDUSD .
USDX, DXYUSDX price is approaching the support zone of 106.45-105.36. If the price fails to break through the main support zone of 105.36, it is expected that there is a chance that the price will rebound. On the contrary, if the price can break through the level of 105.36, it will have a negative impact on the dollar.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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XAG/USD - Wedge Breakout (Weekly Forecast Feb 24-28)The XAG/USD Pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 31.25
2nd Support – 30.67
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Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 107.09
1st Support: 106.64
1st Resistance: 108.04
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD Bullish Reversal Setup – Key Support at 1.0330-1.0367Overview:
The EUR/USD 8-hour chart presents a bullish reversal scenario, with price retracing after breaking an ascending channel. The market is approaching a critical Fibonacci retracement zone (1.0367 - 1.0330), which aligns with a strong support level. A bullish rebound from this area could push price towards the supply zone near 1.0700.
Key Technical Analysis:
Rising Wedge Breakdown: Price recently broke below the ascending wedge, signaling a short-term bearish move.
Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.5 (1.0367) and 0.618 (1.0330) levels act as potential reversal zones.
Support Zone: The market is approaching a demand area where buyers are likely to step in.
Reversal Expectation: A bullish bounce from the Fibonacci zone could lead to a strong move back toward the previous resistance area (1.0700 - 1.0750).
Trade Plan:
📌 Entry: Look for a long position near 1.0367 - 1.0330 after bullish confirmation.
🎯 Target 1: 1.0500 (Short-term resistance).
🎯 Target 2: 1.0650 (Intermediate target).
🎯 Target 3: 1.0700 - 1.0750 (Major resistance).
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 1.0300 to minimize risk.
Conclusion:
EUR/USD is testing a crucial Fibonacci support zone, and if buyers step in, a strong rally toward 1.0700 is likely. Traders should watch for bullish confirmations before entering long positions.
📈 Bullish Bias – Watch for a Reversal from Key Support! 🚀
USD/JPY Bearish Reversal Key Resistance & Fibonacci Target ZonesOverview:
This USD/JPY daily chart shows a potential bearish reversal setup after a break below key support and trendline structure. The pair has recently dropped below a critical demand zone (highlighted in green), which has now turned into resistance. The price is currently attempting a pullback, and a potential rejection from the resistance zone aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.
Key Levels & Technical Analysis:
Previous Support Turned Resistance: The green zone represents a significant past support area that has now become resistance after a breakdown.
Trendline Break: The upward trendline that supported price action for several months has been broken, confirming bearish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
0.382 (151.265): A minor resistance level for a possible short-term rejection.
0.5 (148.979): A stronger resistance, aligning with structure.
0.618 - 0.786 (145.053 - 143.582): The ultimate bearish targets, coinciding with Fibonacci retracement extensions.
Bearish Projection:
The expected scenario suggests a short-term retracement towards the 151.265-148.979 resistance zone.
If the price faces rejection, a strong bearish continuation could target 145.053 and ultimately 143.582.
Trade Plan:
📌 Short Entry: Around 151.265 - 148.979 if price rejects resistance.
🎯 Target 1: 145.053 (0.70 Fibonacci)
🎯 Target 2: 143.582 (0.786 Fibonacci)
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 152.000 to invalidate the bearish setup.
Conclusion:
The overall sentiment for USD/JPY is bearish after breaking a key trendline and support level. Traders should watch for a pullback into the resistance zone, followed by a bearish rejection for a potential short trade. However, a break above 152.000 could invalidate this setup, shifting momentum back to the bulls.
📉 Bearish Bias Until Key Resistance Holds! 📉
EUR/USD - H1- Chart - Ascending Triangle (27.02.2025) The EUR/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0433
2nd Support – 1.0405
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DXY Holds Above 106, Currency Markets at Risk?The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm above the 106-mark, applying pressure on the latest currency market rebound amid escalating tariff and trade war concerns.
With the first wave of tariffs on Canada and Mexico set to take effect in early March, Trump's renewed tariff threats against the EU are further strengthening the Dollar's stance.
This has kept the EURUSD capped below 1.0530 and GBPUSD struggling at 1.27. Friday’s key inflation reports—including the German Prelim CPI and US Core PCE—are expected to introduce additional volatility risks.
🔻 Downside Scenario:
A break below 106, aligning with June 2024 highs, could expose the next support at 1.0520, coinciding with the upper boundary of the declining channel connecting lower highs from October 2023 to June 2024.
Further declines could see DXY testing 104 and 102.20, aligning with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
🔺 Upside Scenario:
A solid close above 107.30 could reignite bullish momentum, pushing DXY towards the 2025 high of 110, potentially derailing the currency market’s 2025 rebound.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 106.184.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 107.245.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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XAUUSD - Worries about the US economy!?Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 30-minute timeframe and is in its descending channel. An upward correction of gold towards the supply limits will provide us with the next selling position with a good risk-reward ratio.
An economist believes that the massive influx of gold and silver into the United States, coupled with speculation about the liquidity of the country’s gold reserves, could have profound effects on American consumers as well as the domestic and global economy.
Thorsten Pollitt, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Bayreuth and publisher of the BOOM & BUST report, told Kitco News that the increase in physical gold and silver inflows into the US is not surprising, as banks are increasing their reserves to counter potential risks associated with tariffs. He stressed that while the likelihood of tariffs on gold and silver is low, the risk is significant enough for banks and investors to take a precautionary approach.
Looking at the long-term implications of this, Pollitt explained that the increase in US gold and silver reserves, coupled with the government’s renewed focus on its reserves, could lead to expectations that both precious metals would be used as currency alongside the US dollar.
He added that using gold and silver as hard currency alongside the dollar could help reduce the problem of inflation, which has become a major challenge for the economy. However, he stressed that for such a scenario to happen, the price of gold and silver would have to reach a much higher level to be commensurate with the size of the US economy. (Hard currency refers to a form of currency that is globally accepted and retains its value due to its stability and reliability.)
Pollitt went on to explain that the significant increase in US government debt has put not only the Federal Reserve, but the entire fiat-based monetary system at risk. “In the future, the Federal Reserve will no longer be able to maintain the same flexibility that it has in the past,” he said. For example, in times of financial crises, the Fed would usually support the economy by injecting liquidity into it. But now, doing so could trigger a wave of hyperinflation. We now know that the Fed can no longer simply be the savior of the economy as it used to be.”
He also warned that the Fed’s policies have led to the market not pricing in risks properly. For example, yields on risky corporate bonds are significantly below their historical average. Currently, the yield spread between B-rated corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds is 1.45 percent, its lowest level since mid-1979.
Warren Buffett, one of the most influential figures in the investment world, has made his concerns clear. In his annual letter to shareholders, the 94-year-old has a stark message for policymakers in Washington: financial turmoil and monetary instability pose a serious threat to the U.S. economy.
The warning comes as his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway has delivered a record-breaking profit and a record $334.2 billion in cash. But Buffett is treading carefully as investment opportunities appear to be shrinking and is preparing to hand over the reins to his appointed successor, Greg Abel.
In the letter, Buffett expressed concern about the growing U.S. budget deficit and warned of a possible extension of tax cuts that began under Trump. He emphasizes that “irresponsible fiscal policies can destroy the value of paper money” and emphasizes the importance of sound public financial management. According to him, the stability of the US economy depends on a strong dollar, and any mistake in monetary policy can have irreparable consequences.
With the rapidly growing budget deficit and increasing discussions about extending the Trump-era tax cuts, Buffett warns that the value of the dollar may weaken. He calls on Washington policymakers to maintain a stable economic framework and support the vulnerable:
“Support people who have been unfortunate in life through no fault of their own. They deserve a better life.”
Warren Buffett reminds us of one of the fundamental principles of investing: “In times of uncertainty, caution and responsible management are more important than ever.” His warning about the growth of the US public debt and the depreciation of the dollar may come true if current trends continue.
Moreover, his focus on investing in Japan and preparing for his successor is a key step for the future of Berkshire Hathaway, a company that must find its way without him in a world of increasing economic instability.