DXY bulls are enjoying the moment. But for how long?Yes, the positivity is coming in for DXY bulls, but is it just an illusion? Stick around and let's take a quick look.
TVC:DXY
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J-DXY
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
After reaching a key support area and trendline, this currency pair has begun a bullish corrective move, as expected. This correction is anticipated to continue up to a specified resistance level, where selling pressure may increase, potentially triggering a new bearish wave.
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GBPUSD → Negative fundamental background. Going to 1.2500FX:GBPUSD is reversing after a retest of strong resistance with no opportunity to enter the liquidity zone. The negative fundamental background is confirmed.
The dollar is flying upwards. News channels and not only already declare about the victory of Trump, whose policy is directed towards the strengthening of the dollar. Markets are starting to react accordingly.
As for GBPUSD, in the last article I focused your attention on 1.2813 and 1.305: If after a pullback to the resistance the price starts to retest the support, the chances of a breakdown and further decline will increase.
The fundamental background, formed at the moment, is favorable for the fall of the currency pair.
Resistance levels: 1.294, 1.30, 1.3044
Support levels: 1.2813, 1.2672, 1.25
The technical and fundamental background are going in the same direction. Emphasis on the key support. A slight pullback is possible before further breakout. Also continue to follow the news!
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:GBPUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Gold Top Defined. As the presidential election has almost concluded. We can expect gold to be bearish from here on out due DXY picking up strength.
Also on the technical side, we can observe Gold making a Head and Shoulder pattern with a 4HR RSI Divergence.
We can now short gold on the retracement of the move down or the candle closing below the dotted neckline.
GOLD → The SMAs are hinting that it's about time ... News!FX:XAUUSD is forming a phase of correction, the reason for which is the change of fundamental background. The pressure from sellers is increasing, and the market is forming a key support at this time...
Disappointing NFP data was offset by hot wage inflation data. The U.S. labor market report failed to deter dollar buyers as it had limited impact on market pricing in Fed meeting expectations. Which had a negative impact on the price of gold...
All eyes are now on the US presidential election on November 5, and the outcome of the Fed meeting on Thursday. Markets believe that Trump's policy will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while if Harris wins, the dovish policy will continue.
Technically, traders are taking a wait-and-see approach. The price is forming a range, and most likely gold will trade inside this channel in the near term
Resistance levels: 2745, 0.5 and 0.7 Fibo, 2758
Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713
SMAs are tending towards each other, which could be a mixed reaction from traders. Markets are prioritizing a Republican victory, in fact, this could intensify gold's correction. But the denouement of the presidential race is tomorrow! For now, the focus is on the flat boundaries!
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
The Best Level to short USDCAD TP +250/+500 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the daily chart for USDCAD today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiyear range, established in 2023.
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in this market.
🔸Range highs set at 3800, premium prices overhead at 3880 3960
range lows set at 3300 and premium prices below at 3140 3240
current bid is 3885.
🔸Recommended strategy for USDCAD traders: focus on short selling any
rips/rallies near market price. price is currently trading near premium levels
and is maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears +250 TP2 bears +500 pips keep in mind this is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit both targets. good luck traders!
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NZDUSD → Speculators waiting for news.... FX:NZDUSD is moving into consolidation after a strong and progressive fall amid a halt in the dollar index. Markets are waiting for news related to the US presidential election....
The currency pair amid strong bullish DXY is not practicing attempts to update local highs with the aim of changing the trend to a bullish one. Buyers are not ready yet, and are waiting for November 5...
If Trump is elected, the dollar, supported by a pro-inflationary president, may continue to recover, which, accordingly, will manifest itself in the form of negative dynamics in the currency pair. But, most likely, with the election of a politician from the Democratic Party, the regulators are likely to continue to hold the dovish rate, in which case the NZDUSD will have a chance to change the trend.
Resistance levels: 0.6031, 0.6066
Support levels: 0.5953, 0.5915
Technically, bears continue to hold the dominant position. The area 0.5915, 0.585 is a zone of interest in terms of liquidity formation, thus, there is a high probability of reaching these areas...
Regards R. Linda!
DXY bias new outlooklast 10 candle does not have any liquidity which seems that price is likely to bounce from 1st poi
but the candle from nov5 and nov6 will be important as it is bearish marbozu with nov6 candle could create bearish fvg that can give price another rejection zone to push the price to test poi 2
based on drawn poi
poi 1 = 103.220
and poi 2 = 102.630
we need see if price is rejected from this zone followed by dotted line which represents external liquidity to grab
and finally we have orange zone that is weekly bearish fvg once that is tested will follow with new idea
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 103.863$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
US Presidential Election Forex Analysis5th November US Presidential Election
DXY: Could retest 103.50 area, and rebound up to cover gap and up to 104.30 (if price breaks 103.40 could trade down to 102.90)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6040 SL 20 TP 80
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6635 SL 20 TP 60 (trend following) Counter trend opp: Buy 0.6670 SL 30 TP 90
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2980 SL 40 TP 130
EURUSD: Buy 1.0930 SL 30 TP 70
USDJPY: Ranging between 151.70 and 153.40, looking for breakout potential following major news
USDCHF: Buy 0.8650 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Sell 1.3870 SL 20 TP 50
Gold: Needs to break 2730 to trade down to 2710 and then possible rebound
GOLD → The US election and how does XAUUSD depend on it?FX:XAUUSD is waiting for strong news. The price continues to test and even update local lows, but in the next 1-2 days you need to be careful as high volatility is expected.
The main issue on the agenda is the US presidential election. High volatility is expected. Until last week, markets were pricing in a Trump victory (his policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the US dollar). But on Monday, the situation showed a slightly different picture, with the odds of a Harris victory (opposite, successor, policies) rising
In addition, expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle from the Fed are also supporting the dollar.
Also, markets are taking into account the ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran.
Technically, the emphasis of the flat boundaries. While the price is trading inside, but most likely an attempt to get out of the accumulation will be formed....
Resistance levels: 2745, 2758
Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713
Technically, gold continues to test support with the aim of retesting deeper liquidity zones below. But the risks are quite high right now. Gold is still feeling the support, so there could be unpredictable market reactions depending on the outcome!
Regards R. Linda!
US Election, FED Rate Cut, 1,200+ earnings - Here we go!!!It's Election Eve and I thought it was important to share how I'm positioning for the US Election and all of the craziness that it may bring.
Maybe it's all hype, maybe it's the truest test of US Democracy, maybe it's the beginning of the end. I'm not going to opine on political preference. I'm simply going to focus on current levels and what's in play.
Pullback levels for me are all pretty visually friendly with EMA combos on the Daily and Weekly charts. We are 3-4% off from recent highs, the market wasn't in love with Mag 7 earnings last week, pre-election jitters are fairly obvious, and the market will be looking for a reason to do something.
Expect volatility - and I hope it's nothing wild and crazy like Aug 1-5. I discuss the potential concern for a US Election where a winner is not declared and we wait days or longer for an official winner. Also a phenomenon is the Wednesday close for the S&P tends to show solid short-term direction, but I believe that's only if we see a winner Tuesday night for election night (just my opinion).
I'm hedged, alerts are set, it's all happening whether we like it or not. Focus on what you can control in your trading and let's figure it out.
Thanks for watching!!!
Levels discussed during livestream 4th November4th November
DXY: Needs to break 103.90 to trade up to 104.30 (trendline)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5985 SL 30 TP 45
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6590 SL 25 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2985 SL 40 TP 130
EURUSD: Buy 1.0910 SL 30 TP 90
USDJPY: Ranging between 151.70 and 153.40, looking for breakout potential following major news
USDCHF: Buy 0.8645 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Sell 1.3910 SL 20 TP 100
Gold: Needs to break 2730 to trade down to 2710
DXY: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 103.586
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY Under Pressure: Analyzing Economic Signals Ahead U.S. Elect.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently showing intriguing movements as it deals with a mix of economic data and looming political changes. After a Friday marked by disappointing economic indicators—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Farm Employment Change—the DXY appears to be entering a potential reversal phase. This was further reflected in its negative opening on Monday, which had a noticeable impact on trading in London.
Economic Backdrop and Market Sentiment
The DXY's recent performance has been influenced by a combination of economic releases and trader sentiment. The mixed results from significant economic indicators have created a sense of cautious uncertainty among investors. The less-than-ideal ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change figures have raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, prompting traders to reassess their positions.
As market participants analyze these economic signals, it’s evident that the DXY is acting in response to established price levels and supply zones. Recent price actions suggest a critical juncture; the dollar seems to be encountering resistance as it approaches these key areas.
Insights from the COT Report
A deeper look at the market dynamics through the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a noteworthy divergence. Retail traders continue to maintain long positions, likely influenced by previous bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar. Meanwhile, institutional investors, often referred to as the "smart money," are taking a more bearish stance, gradually shifting their positions lower. This unsettling divergence raises important questions: Will the enthusiasm of retail traders sway the market, or will the more cautious strategies of institutional investors prevail?
This situation highlights the potential for volatility that characterizes these transitional phases in the market. Retail traders may find themselves at risk if the smart money's strategies prove to be more prescient.
Seasonal Trends Indicate a Bearish Outlook
Adding another layer of complexity, seasonal patterns historically suggest that a bearish trend may be on the horizon during this time of year. Price movements often align with established seasonal patterns, prompting traders to consider the implications for future market performance.
The Impending U.S. Elections: A Prelude to Volatility
With U.S. elections fast approaching, market volatility is expected to rise significantly. History shows that political events can greatly influence currency and asset prices, leading traders to adjust their positions in anticipation of results. This environment is likely to see retracements across various indices and currencies, creating turmoil across the financial landscape.
As market participants prepare for the immediate aftermath of the elections, substantial fluctuations are anticipated. The uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes and the resulting policy shifts will drive considerable movement across asset classes.
Conclusion
The DXY’s trajectory is complex as it navigates a potential reversal amidst mixed economic signals, diverging trader positions, and impending political changes. With the elections on the horizon, traders should brace for increased volatility and be ready to adapt to rapid shifts in momentum. Staying informed about economic indicators, seasonal trends, and overall market sentiment will be crucial for navigating this challenging landscape. Ultimately, success in these uncertain times will hinge on understanding market psychology while remaining agile in response to both data releases and geopolitical developments.
Initial Idea:
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DXY + EURUSD Analysis (4th Nov 2024)Here is my analysis for the DXY and EURUSD for the edification of a learner.
As we know the US elections are coming up, so we are likely going to see some manipulation and volatility this month. It will be very interesting. I caution anyone to not take high leveraged swing trades during this time unless they are in a gambling mood.
- R2F