J-DXY
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – NEXT WEEK’S TRADE PERSPECTIVEDOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – NEXT WEEK’S TRADE PERSPECTIVE
Heading into next week, keep an eye on the upper zone around 108 and the 106 area. The DXY could make a short-term bounce toward 108, then continue its primary downtrend, aiming for 106.
Looking further down, starting around March, DXY is likely to trade below the 103 handle, indicating extended downside pressure.
AUD/USD Triangle Breakout (19.2.25)The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.6391
2nd Resistance – 0.6404
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Gold NEW ATH to $2,954?! (1H UPDATE)Gold on the 4H TF is within its final Wave 5 bullish move, there’s no arguing with that. The only thing to debate is how high can Wave 5 push up before reversing?
While it’s possible that Wave 5 has now peaked at $2,942 & ready for a major correction, on the 1H TF I see a small possibly of it creating a new ATH toward $2,954. HIGH RISK TRADE.
Confluences👇🏻
⭕️Distribution Schematic Taking Place Between Wave 3 High, Wave 4 Low & Wave 5 High.
⭕️Wave E Rejected From Psychological Number Of $2,940 (LQ Trap).
⭕️No Strong Sell Off Yet To Indicate A Reversal Has Started.
DXY – Key Level Broken, More Downside Ahead?Hello Folks , Long time no see .
The US Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below 106.5, and things are getting interesting. The trend has been weakening, and price is now sitting at a crucial zone.
📌 Here’s what I’m watching:
107.66 is the big resistance. If price can reclaim it, bulls might have a chance.
105.48 & 104.46 are the next major support levels.
👀 My Take:
If we stay below 106.5, I expect more downside towards 105.4 and maybe 103.3. If price bounces and reclaims 107, I’ll reconsider.
What’s your view? More downside or a bounce coming? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
🚨 Disclaimer:
Just sharing ideas here—this isn’t a trade advice . Everyone sees the market differently, and the goal is to improve our analysis, not tell anyone what to do. At the end of the day, your trades are your call, your responsibility. Trade smart! 🚀📊
Daily DXY The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently indicating the likely direction after closing below 106.965. I anticipate a move back to the 107.200-250 range before continuing its bearish swing. Several confluences support this, including the reversal point, an ascending trendline, a descending trendline, a rejection candlestick, the daily 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 4-hour 0.5 Fibonacci level, and a 4-hour order block. My target for the DXY is 106.083. As for gold, it has reached a new all-time high of 2954.944. I expect a pullback before it heads higher, potentially towards the 3000 level.
4hr DXY Chart
1hr DXY Chart
30m Gold Chart
DXY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 106.963.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 106.002 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Short swing trade set up developingI can see a good short trade opportunity developing.
1)The price sharply dropped below the major support/resistance zone around 107 area and retraced up gently within the ascending parallel channel to fill the fair value gap.
2)The current 4H candle is moving below the bottom parallel channel. (developing)
3) MACD is in the bear zone and it looks like it is about to cross to the downside (but not confirmed).
4) RSI is also in the bear zone and it is starting to cross to the downside.
GOLD Set to make new Highs before the week ClosesI was looking for a bigger pullback but we didnt get it. The way price is moving and based on the FOMC news I think the pull back is over and price is ready to continue bullish. We just came into the killzone and things look like they are lining up. Trailing stop along the way.
EUR/USD Wedge Breakout (17.2.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0413
2nd Support – 1.0375
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Trade Idea for U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Feb 19, 2025📌 Current Market Context
DXY is trading at 107.023 , slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (106.344).
This level is a key golden ratio support, where strong reversals often happen.
The uptrend from Sept 2024 suggests that bulls are still in control unless this retracement turns into a full reversal.
📈 Bullish Trade Idea (Buy Setup)
✅ Entry: Look for bullish price action (rejection wicks, engulfing candles, or a strong bounce) near 106.344 - 106.500 .
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 108.035 (78.6% Fib)
Target 2 : 110.189 (previous high)
📍 Stop-Loss: Below 105.800 (just under 61.8% retracement to avoid stop hunts).
📊 Risk/Reward: ~1:2 or better.
📉 Bearish Trade Idea (Sell Setup)
❌ Trigger: If DXY closes below 106.344 on a daily candle , it could signal further downside.
📉 Entry: Sell below 106.200 after confirmation.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 105.156 (50% Fib)
Target 2 : 103.968 (38.2% Fib)
📍 Stop-Loss: Above 107.000 (to avoid fakeouts).
📊 Risk/Reward: 1:2 minimum.
🛠️ Risk Management Notes
Watch for fundamental news (FOMC, inflation data, rate decisions) that could cause volatility.
Use partial take profits to secure gains along the way.
If entering a buy trade, consider trailing stops once price reaches 108.035.
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold – Key Trade Setups (#5)The market still seems indecisive , but I’m here to find the best trade triggers for BTC and Forex. Let’s break it down.
📊 DXY – Breaking Key Support
DXY has entered a corrective phase after breaking below the 107.335 support.
🔹 Key Support Levels:
105.656 (Aligned with the 30% Fibonacci retracement)
103.367 (Aligned with the 60% Fibonacci retracement)
💡 106.602 could act as a short-term support, and if it breaks, it might be time to focus on USD pairs for potential setups.
🟡 XAU/USD (Gold) – Retesting ATH?
Gold rejected its all-time high at 2937.91 and now seems to be retesting this major resistance.
📊 What’s happening?
Gold is still in an uptrend, but momentum is fading.
Smaller bullish candles vs. larger bearish candles indicate possible exhaustion.
A correction could be healthy, but shorting remains risky in an uptrend.
📌 Trade Triggers:
✅ Long Entry: After a confirmed breakout above 2940
❌ Short Entry: Below 2879.74 (High risk due to trend direction)
📉 BTC – 95K Support Breaking?
BTC is attempting to break below the 95K support. If this level is lost, we could see a move toward 92K, 85K, and even 82K.
📌 Strategy:
✅ Short Trigger (Activated): 95245 (Yesterday’s signal)
✅ If You Missed It: Wait for a pullback or a new structure before entering.
Final Thoughts
⚠ This is a highly volatile market – avoid chasing trades and wait for confirmations.
⚠ If you’re not using risk management, these setups may not be suitable for you.
I’m Skeptic , see you tomorrow with another market breakdown! <3
Gold XAUUSD Intra-day Move 18.02.2025📊 Market Structure & Price Action Analysis:
Key Support Zone: $2,903 - $2,906 (buy zone)
Key Resistance Target: $2,921 - $2,927
Liquidity Grab: Possible fakeouts below $2,903 before a bounce.
Trend Bias: Short-term bullish momentum, expecting a bounce off support.
📈 Intraday Scalping Trade Setup:
✅ Buy Entry: $2,903 - $2,906 (Look for price reaction confirmation)
🎯 Take Profit (TP1): $2,915
🎯 Take Profit (TP2): $2,921 - $2,924 (Partial close & trail stop)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): Below $2,898 (Tight SL for quick exit)
⚖ Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 to 1:3
🕵 Scalping Confirmation Checklist:
✅ Bullish Rejection Wicks at $2,903 - $2,906
✅ Increased Volume on the bounce
✅ Break & Retest of minor intraday resistance
✅ Monitor Order Flow for buy-side momentum
⚠ Risk Management:
Exit Quickly if price fails to hold above $2,903
Move SL to Breakeven once TP1 is hit
Avoid Chasing Entries if price already starts moving up
📌 Scalping Tip: Use smaller lot sizes with quick execution to secure profits efficiently.
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XAUUSD - Consolidation, what’s next?Here is our in-depth detailed view on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a detailed overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels.
Alright first, taking a look at XAUUSD from a lower time-frame . For this we will be looking at the m15 time-frame .
As of right now, we are consolidating on OANDA:XAUUSD The best “signal” for now is to sit on our hands and wait for a clear break. Right now we are in a range from around 2905.6 and 2896 . Until we get a clear break , we can’t know the direction of the pair just yet. So, breaking down everything and understanding the importance of Key Levels we have several outcomes possibly in play.
Scenario 1: BUYS at the break to the upside (from the consolidation area)
- We broke above our consolidation area.
With the break to the upside, we can expect to see 2915 or a deeper revisit of 2920. At this point we would have to see if we make any pullbacks, possibly revisiting the top of the consolidation area (now becoming our support).
Scenario 2: SELLS at the break to the downside (from the consolidation area)
- We broke below our consolidation area.
With the break to the downside, we can expect to see lower levels such as 2880. At this point we would have to see if we make any pullbacks and continue chugging away to the downside. With the breaks of current lows we have on gold, we can expect drops even down to 2840.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD is consolidating.
- Breaks to the upside would confirm buys.
- Breaks to the downside would confirm sells.
- Possible deeper digs to the upside from 2915.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Emerging Markets Are Breaking Higher; Be Aware Of Lower USDollarEmerging markets, represented by the EEM chart, have been trending lower since October 2024 in what appears to be a complex W-X-Y corrective pattern. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a strong rally, driven by Trump’s victory in the US elections. However, the rally formed a wedge pattern, which suggests that its upside momentum may be coming to an end.
Why is the correlation between EEM and DXY important? If the Trump administration pushes oil prices lower, inflation expectations could also decline. This would likely lead to lower interest rates, which in turn could weigh on the USD. In such a scenario, capital may flow out of the US and into emerging markets.
Now that EEM is recovering and breaking above a key channel resistance, it signals that bullish momentum is returning. If this trend continues on EEM to 2024 highs, then DXY could decline to the 105–103 range—or possibly even as low as 100.
#USDX 4HUSDX (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming a flag pattern, which is generally considered a continuation signal. This indicates that the market is in a consolidation phase after a strong move, and a breakout could lead to further bullish momentum.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise if the price breaks above the upper trendline of the flag pattern, confirming bullish strength.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a breakout above the flag pattern with strong volume.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the recent low to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target the next key resistance levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The flag pattern suggests that the market is pausing before continuing its upward move. Waiting for a confirmed breakout will help align with the prevailing trend and avoid false signals.
EURNZD Bullish Flag Pattern: Awaiting Breakout Toward 1.8700EURNZD is currently trading at 1.8330, with a target price of 1.8700, suggesting an anticipated upward movement of 300+ pips. This pattern indicates that the pair is forming a bullish flag, a continuation pattern that often signals a breakout to the upside after a consolidation phase. In this scenario, traders are looking for a breakout above the flag's upper trendline, which would potentially push the price toward the 1.8700 target.
From a technical perspective, the bullish flag pattern is formed when the price consolidates after a strong uptrend. The consolidation phase represents a period of indecision in the market, but once the price breaks above the flag's resistance level, it typically resumes its upward momentum. In this case, the breakout would likely bring the pair closer to the 1.8700 level, where strong resistance could be expected.
On the fundamental side, the euro has been supported by the European Central Bank's monetary policy, which continues to focus on economic stability, while the New Zealand dollar faces pressure from softer commodity prices, particularly dairy exports. Additionally, global risk sentiment, such as inflation data or geopolitical events, could further influence the direction of EURNZD.
In summary, if EURNZD breaks above the resistance of the bullish flag, it could provide a strong buying opportunity toward the 1.8700 target. Keep an eye on the global economic landscape, particularly developments in Europe and New Zealand, to validate this bullish move.
GOLD → Bullish, News-Driven PriceGold (XAU/USD) Outlook: Navigating Key Support Amid Economic Uncertainty
Gold prices remain in a bullish trend, rebounding from previously tested trend support and signaling a potential upside continuation. The metal’s safe-haven appeal remains intact as global economic uncertainties persist, driving investor interest. However, market sentiment is influenced by key geopolitical and macroeconomic developments.
Geopolitical & Economic Factors Influencing Gold
Investors remain highly cautious ahead of the upcoming US-Russia discussions in Saudi Arabia, where efforts to negotiate a resolution to the Ukraine conflict will take center stage. Any significant breakthroughs or escalations from these talks could inject volatility into the markets, impacting gold’s movement.
Meanwhile, a weak risk appetite is currently supporting the US dollar. The greenback is benefiting from cautious rhetoric by Federal Reserve officials, who continue to express concerns about inflation. Policymakers are urging patience in easing monetary policy, which reduces the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. The market’s focus now shifts to upcoming Fed speeches and the release of the January FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide further insights into the central bank’s stance on interest rates.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels & Market Structure
In the Asian trading session, gold successfully broke above the 2905 level, which now serves as a critical support zone. This level has historically played a key role in price action, and its ability to hold could determine gold’s short-term trajectory.
Immediate resistance levels: 2922 and 2938
Support levels: 2905 and 2893
The most probable scenario is a retest of the 2905 support zone, given the existing liquidity interest below this level. However, the broader bullish trend suggests that any dips are likely to be met with renewed buying pressure. Additionally, an imbalance in favor of buyers could continue pushing the price upward.
A decisive breakout and consolidation above 2915 could act as a catalyst for further gains, potentially driving the price toward the next key resistance levels. Conversely, if gold fails to maintain support, a deeper retracement toward 2893 could unfold before any renewed bullish momentum takes over.
Conclusion
Gold’s price action remains highly sensitive to both economic and geopolitical developments. While the broader uptrend remains intact, short-term fluctuations driven by risk sentiment, Federal Reserve commentary, and geopolitical negotiations will play a crucial role. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions at key support and resistance levels, as well as upcoming macroeconomic events, to assess the next move in XAU/USD.