EUR/USD Faces Downside as Powell's Hawkish Remarks Boost USDThe EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks on Monday continue to support the US Dollar (USD), capping any significant upside potential for the Euro (EUR). Powell’s stance suggests that the Federal Reserve is still focused on curbing inflation, which has strengthened the USD and weighed on the major pair.
At the same time, expectations for more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have contributed to keeping a lid on the EUR/USD. This comes ahead of key economic data releases, particularly the flash Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. The pair, as predicted last week, is currently trading within a supply area, with price action forming a double top pattern. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bullish on the Euro, while larger institutional players are more cautious, signaling potential downside risks.
The flash CPI report, due later today, is expected to show that inflation in the Eurozone likely fell below the ECB’s 2% target in September. This follows a notable drop in Germany’s CPI to its lowest level since February 2021, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting in October. A softer CPI print would likely reaffirm these rate cut bets, applying further downward pressure on the Euro.
However, even if the CPI reading comes in higher than expected, the market reaction could be muted. The modest strength of the USD, supported by Powell's comments and the overall hawkish stance of the Fed, suggests that EUR/USD may struggle to gain upward momentum. The path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside, as the technical setup points to a potential bearish continuation.
In conclusion, with the EUR/USD pair trading in a supply area and forming a double top, coupled with a cautious outlook from institutional traders, the risk of a bearish continuation looms large. Key economic data, including the Eurozone CPI, will be closely watched today, but the fundamental backdrop remains in favor of the USD, keeping pressure on the pair. Traders should remain alert to further downside movement, especially if the ECB rate cut expectations solidify.
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J-EUR
EURUSD loosing downside momentumFX:EURUSD
The EURUSD is in the key Fibonacci Retracement level of between the 78.6% and 88.6% levels, volume is starting to decline to the downside, we have almost a complete 5-wave move, and we have a positive RSI divergence reading, after it reach oversold levels. Nice Risk-Reward ratio here, even if it manages to sweep the lows a little bite.
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1017
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.0955
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.1080
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Could EUR/CAD reverse from here?The price rise rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance which is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could fall to the pullback support.
Pivot: 1.50036
1st Support: 1.48966
1st Resistance: 1.50706
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Overlap resistance ahead?EUR/NZD is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.77963
1st Support: 1.76667
1st Resistance: 1.79086
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD Faces Pressure as USD Strengthens Ahead of US PCE DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced selling pressure on Friday, reversing part of the gains made in the previous session. The US Dollar (USD) found renewed strength as traders repositioned ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key measure of inflation that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
This USD rebound played a significant role in dragging the EUR/USD lower, especially as the Euro approached a critical technical zone. The pair retested a supply area, forming a potential Double Top pattern a classic indicator of weakening momentum and an early sign of a bearish reversal. This technical setup suggests that the recent bullish move might be losing traction.
Moreover, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily bullish on the Euro. This often signals a contrarian opportunity, as extreme retail sentiment can precede a market reversal, with institutional traders typically positioning themselves in the opposite direction.
With both technical and sentiment indicators aligning, we are anticipating a retracement in the EUR/USD pair. The current USD strength, coupled with a bearish chart pattern and aggressive retail optimism, supports the likelihood of a pullback in the near term. The release of the PCE inflation data could act as a catalyst, potentially increasing market volatility and applying additional pressure on the Euro.
In summary, we expect the EUR/USD to face further downside risks as the USD gains traction. The technical setup and market sentiment suggest that the pair could retrace from current levels, especially if the upcoming US inflation data favors continued USD strength. We remain cautious and are watching for opportunities to position for a retracement.
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Bullish reversal?EUR/NZD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.76128
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.74918
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 1.77991
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Could price reverse from here?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.1020
1st Support: 1.0957
1st Resistance: 1.1075
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURAUD to continue in the downward move?EURAUD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bearish overall, a correction is possible without impacting the trend lower.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 1.6025 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 1.5975.
We look to Sell at 1.6100 (stop at 1.6140)
Our profit targets will be 1.6000 and 1.5975
Resistance: 1.6075 / 1.6100 / 1.6125
Support: 1.6025 / 1.6000 / 1.5975
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EUR/USD Extends Losses as USD Strengthens, Bearish Impulse FocusThe EUR/USD pair has extended its decline for a third consecutive day, falling in line with our previous forecast. The US Dollar (USD) has gained traction, supported by a risk-off market sentiment and recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. On Monday, Powell downplayed expectations of a significant 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, indicating that the central bank is not in a hurry to lower rates aggressively. His cautious tone has further bolstered the Dollar, keeping pressure on the Euro.
From a broader perspective, the main scenario for EUR/USD remains unchanged from what was outlined in previous analyses. We are still looking for a potential new bearish impulse, particularly as markets anticipate the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report later today. This key economic indicator could further influence the pair’s movement, with stronger-than-expected data likely boosting the USD and pushing the EUR/USD lower.
Technically, the pair is approaching our second take profit target as the bearish momentum continues. The current outlook suggests further downside potential, especially if today’s ADP report supports the case for a resilient US labor market, reinforcing the strength of the USD.
In conclusion, with the EUR/USD pair continuing its downward trend and the USD benefiting from Powell’s cautious stance, we anticipate further bearish action. The release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report today could provide the catalyst needed to reach our second take profit target. Traders should remain vigilant, as the bearish scenario is still in play and could gain momentum following today’s data.
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EURUSD H4 - Short SignalEURUSD H4
We would be looking for something similar to this for the likes of EURUSD and US30, US100 if the opportunity is to present, we have seen and witnessed the selling pressure, now we need some market correction to offer the entry to the next wave of selling pressure.
That being said, we still want to stack confluences, our indicated sell zone now sits at 1.11 price. A whole number, area of resistance and supply. Lets see what today brings!
Bullish bounce?EUR/CAD is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.48941
1st Support: 1.48252
1st Resistance: 1.49923
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD: Bearish reversal if the 1D MA50 breaks.EURUSD is on the lower levels of neutrality on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 46.772, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 17.817) as it reversed aggressively on the 1.12100 R1 level, forming what is so far a DT (double top) on a 1month 1D RSI bearish divergence. The same divergence was formed on the December 28th 2024 HH and it caused a decline to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The trigger point to sell is always the 1D MA50. Consequently, we will turn bearish if it is crossed, aiming at the 0.618 Fib (TP = 1.08350).
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EURNZD - A Top-Down Tutorial (ICT)In this video I go through how I perform a top-down analysis and zone in on exactly where I am in price action in order to source for the next high-probability trade. IF there is none, then we stay out until more clues are provided. We DO NOT want to chase price and get in on consolidative and manipulative price action. We want to be hunters, not sheep.
- R2F
Beaarish reversal off 50%% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 160.86
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 162.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 158.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURGBP Short - Do You Even Check Fundamentals?I'd like to see at least one wick of a major past price point on the htf which will reset the longs before any potential up movement. In general, fundamental wise, I literally have no idea why people long EURGBP while its obvious that EUR will further decrease its rates while GBP stays at it.
EURAUD Sell signalThe EURAUD pair gave us an excellent but signal last time (July 15, see chart below) as the price rallied straight after it, easily hitting our 1.64500 Target:
The pair is already on the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Down and until the 1D RSI starts forming Higher Lows and waves a Bullish Divergence (like the two previous bottoms), we will remain bearish, targeting 1.59500 (bottom).
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EURUSD Bullish continuation of the Channel Up.The EURUSD pair is defying the Double Top selling pressure of the 1.12100 Resistance and it appears that there are high probabilities of extending the Bullish Leg of the June's Channel Up.
With the support of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that contained the September 11 pull-back, the trend may be targeting the pattern's top for a new Higher High. It appears that so far there is high symmetry between the July - August 2024 Leg and October - November 2023 trend (both +4.99% rises), so the current uptrend may be of around +3.85%, similar to the one of December 2023.
As a result, with the 1D MACD also on a Bullish Cross, we are targeting 1.13500 for a Higher High.
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Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?EUR/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 158.46
1st Support: 157.35
1st Resistance: 160.87
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 29/09/24Starting the week with the Euro to U.S. Dollar. Following last week, we saw a clear push to the upside, with price action generating solid movement in an uptrend. We expect this momentum to continue as the U.S. Dollar shows signs of weakening. This suggests a high probability of price action moving toward the previously established high, which serves as a key area of trajectory, clearly pointing upwards. This is a leading indicator of a potential new high being formed.
Additionally, there are areas of liquidity and demand, which are crucial points of interest should we see a pullback. Keep in mind, our daily trajectory is clearly bullish. However, if we break below the trajectory low and fail to react to the demand area, I would expect price action to decline further, taking us to the lower end of the range on the higher timeframe.
Stick to your risk. Always follow your trading plan.