GBP/JPY: A Closer Look at Growing Momentum - SHORTAnalyzing market trends and identifying potential opportunities is crucial for making informed decisions. One such opportunity currently presenting itself is the bearish setup on GBP/JPY, indicating a significant shift in momentum.
As the price of GBP/JPY reached the 193.000 value, it coincided with the 78.8% Fibonacci level, marking a critical point of confluence. This convergence suggests a strong resistance level, indicating a potential reversal in the upward trend.
Analyzing the price action and technical indicators, it appears that a bearish impulse is likely to follow. The confirmation of this downward movement is supported by our previous analysis of this currency pair, which highlighted 189.000 as the first target for a bearish trend.
This analysis underscores the importance of understanding key technical levels and their significance in predicting market movements. The confluence of the 193.000 value with the 78.8% Fibonacci level serves as a strong indication of impending bearish momentum.
Traders and investors should closely monitor the price action of GBP/JPY in the coming days, as it is likely to follow a downward trajectory towards the 189.000 target.
Our Previous Idea
J-jpy
AUDJPY - Are You Ready⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 AUDJPY has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge pattern in blue.
Currently, AUDJPY is in a correction phase, approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover , it is retesting a strong demand in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #AUDJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GBPJPY - Trend-Following Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 GBPJPY has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue.
Currently, GBPJPY is in a correction phase, approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #GBPJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USDJPY Top of Channel Up. Sell signal.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Currently it is about to exhaust the 2nd Bullish Leg of this Channel as it approaches its top (Higher Highs trend-line). It begun with a Low on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and then a Higher Low on the 1D MA200.
With the 1D RSI overbought for the first time since July 05 2023, we are turning bearish on USDJPY after a long time but only for the short-term. Our target is 146.500 (Support 1).
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USDJPY Eyes Upside Potential Following CPI Data BoostAttention Traders,
In today's trading session, we're closely observing USDJPY, pinpointing a potential buying opportunity around the 152.900 zone. USDJPY maintains its uptrend trajectory, currently navigating a correction phase as it approaches the critical 152.900 support and resistance area.
Adding depth to our analysis, let's delve into the fundamental landscape. Recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showcases an upward trend in inflation. Comparing the CPI figures from recent months reveals a gradual increase:
Mar 12, 2024: 0.4%
Feb 13, 2024: 0.4%
Jan 11, 2024: 0.3%
Dec 12, 2023: 0.3%
Nov 14, 2023: 0.2%
The latest CPI data, released yesterday on April 10th, reported a year-over-year increase of 3.5% in March, surpassing February's pace of 3.2% and economist expectations of 3.4%. Notably, this robust inflation rate was fueled by rises in housing and gasoline costs.
This acceleration in inflation can have significant implications for the US Dollar's strength. Higher inflation tends to bolster the USD as it prompts expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve to curb inflationary pressures. Consequently, investors may flock to the USD, anticipating higher interest rates in the future, which could drive USDJPY upwards.
As we navigate today's market, it's essential to factor in both technical and fundamental aspects. The potential buying opportunity in USDJPY at 152.900 aligns with the bullish sentiment driven by inflation data and the broader uptrend.
Trade wisely,
Joe
CHFJPY: Rising on the 1D MA200.CHFJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.785, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 31.970) as the price action is ranged between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. The dominant pattern is a Channel Up however and with the price rebounding on the 1D MA200 (unbroken since March 29 2023) and the 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross, we expect the new HH leg to start. Our target is the R1 level (TP = 171.500).
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JPY Pairs at a Crossroads: Should You Trade or Wait?The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been making waves in the forex market, but not necessarily in a good way. Major JPY pairs like USDJPY, EURJPY, and AUDJPY have all found themselves in a tense standoff with resistance levels for nearly a week now. This has many traders wondering: is it time to jump in, or should we wait for a clearer signal?
**The Resistance Tug-of-War:**
Imagine these JPY pairs as tug-of-war teams, locked in a battle at a specific price point. This price point is the resistance level – a zone where buyers and sellers clash. For the past week, these pairs have been testing this resistance, with high trading volume indicating strong forces on both sides.
**Why the Wait Might Be Wise:**
While a potential downward move for these JPY pairs seems likely, there are strong reasons to hold off on a trade just yet. Here's why:
* **False Breakouts:** Resistance levels are like bullies – they often try to intimidate price by holding it back. Sometimes, price might even experience a false breakout, surging past resistance only to fall back down. Waiting for a confirmed breakout with significant trading volume helps avoid entering a trade based on a false signal.
* **Unexpected Reversals:** Even if these JPY pairs do manage to break resistance initially, there's always a chance they could reverse course. Imagine the tug-of-war team on the other side suddenly gaining strength and pulling the rope back. Waiting for sustained movement above resistance after a breakout can help you avoid getting caught in a whipsaw (rapid price swings in both directions).
**Patience is a Virtue (and a Trading Strategy):**
Your cautious approach of waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown with good volume in the JPY pairs demonstrates sound trading discipline. This will help you manage risk and potentially identify better entry points for your trades.
**The Takeaway:**
The current situation with the JPY pairs presents an interesting technical puzzle. While the potential for a downward move exists, waiting for confirmation through a clear breakout or breakdown with high volume is the more prudent strategy. This can help you avoid unnecessary risk and potentially position yourself for more profitable trades in the future.
**Remember:** This is a technical analysis based on the current market conditions. Before making any trading decisions, consider other factors like economic data, central bank policy announcements, and major news events.
UJStill holding a buy, moved SL in profit. With the current price movement we might get stopped out.
DAILY
151.90, we finally broke and closed above. We are now either waiting for the further bullish push up or the retest so we can enter on the continuation. This is the highest price UJ has been peaked at, so we know the dollar is doing quite well.
4H
152.80 gave us a form of support and we have been going up. Yet we wait and watch as it could shoot up and create new supports or breakdown to retest old resistance as supports.
1H
We are seeing a test candle which is a form of reversal so stay watching for that. 152.80 is our support for either a breakdown or reject and shoot up.
15Min
AUDJPY: Today's decline is a buy opportunity.AUDJPY is borderline bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.140, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 22.883) as today it has erased the gains of almost the past 3 days. As it approaches the 1D MA50, it is turning into a buy opportunity inside a double Channel Up pattern. At 99.000 we are turning bullish again and will aim for a +2.65% increase (TP = 101.700) for a HH.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Buy EURJPY Bullish ChannelThe EUR/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing buying pressure and a higher likelihood of further gains in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the channel, ideally around 164.75. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones:
165.40: This represents the first level of resistance within the channel.
165.70: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 164.50. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards.
Thank you
Yen Bear Onslaught Tests Resolve at 152, Intervention LoomsThe Japanese Yen finds itself in a precarious position, facing the strongest selling pressure in 17 years. Net yen shorts, a measure of bearish bets, have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 2007 . This relentless shorting comes as the Yen precariously approaches a key psychological barrier: 152 Yen per US Dollar.
A Perfect Storm for the Yen
Several factors are fueling the Yen's decline:
• Central Bank Tug-of-War: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stubbornly clings to its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero. This starkly contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which is aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation. This disparity makes the US Dollar a far more attractive investment for yield-hungry traders.
• Double-Edged Sword: A weaker Yen benefits Japanese exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, the boon for exporters translates to pain for consumers, as imports become significantly more expensive.
Intervention: A Looming Wildcard
The Japanese government has a well-established history of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. With the currency teetering near 152, a level considered a potential trigger for intervention, all eyes are on the BOJ's next move. Their recent warnings about intervention haven't deterred the bears, adding another layer of intrigue.
Will the Bears Breach the 152 Fortress?
The record-high short positions suggest investors are firmly convinced the Yen will weaken further. A break below 152 could trigger a domino effect of selling, accelerating the Yen's decline. However, a few factors could offer the Yen some respite:
• Intervention by the BOJ: The government might decide to step in and buy Yen to stabilize the currency, especially if the decline becomes disorderly.
• Profit-taking: As the Yen weakens, some short-sellers may choose to lock in their profits, potentially alleviating some downward pressure.
Trading the Yen: A Delicate Dance
The Yen's future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here's how traders can navigate this volatile market:
• Stay Glued to Geopolitical and Economic News: Monitor US interest rate decisions, BOJ policy announcements, and any signs of intervention by the Japanese government.
• Technical Analysis is Your Ally: Utilize TradingView's advanced charting tools to identify potential support and resistance levels for the Yen.
• Risk Management is Paramount: The Yen market is highly volatile. Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Potential bearish dropEURJPY is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from tis level to our take profit
Entry: 165.193
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop loss: 165.775
Why we like it:
There is a resistance which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension
Take profit: 163.472
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EUR/JPY minor short(4/9/2024)Today, the EUR/JPY price rose in the early morning, and right now the price made a good rejection from the 165.1 zone.
this rejection could lead to further downward movement after a short retracement.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
China - U.S. War Preparations!We are still at the start phase of the China - U.S. war & seeing it slowly brew into something bigger. 2025 - 2026 should be when we see a full out war, weather that's a physical war, economical war or a cyber war. Ahead of this war it'll be interesting to see how China prepares for sanctions from western nations;
⭕️Which financial asset classes they divert into.
⭕️Which industries they become reliant on.
⭕️Which countries they turn into allies.
Buy CHFJPY Triangle BreakoutThe CHF/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potentially interesting situation with a triangle breakout pattern.
Potential Long Trade :
Entry: Above the broken resistance line of the triangle, ideally around 167.60 after confirmation.
Target Levels:
168.75: This represents the height of the triangle, measured from the apex (highest or lowest point) to the base (opposite trendline), projected upwards from the breakout point.
169.18: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the triangle, ideally around 167.45. This helps limit potential losses if the price fails to break out and reverses downwards.
Thank you.
Potential bearish reversalAUDJPY is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance level and could reverse from this level to our take profit
Entry: 100.359
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop loss: 100.699
Why we like it:
There is a resistance at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension
Take profit: 99.235
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURJPY: Bullish on a 4H MA50 rebound.EURJPY has turned bullish on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 65.893, MACD = 0.220, ADX = 54.338) as the 4H MA50 held and supported a new 2 day rally since Friday. The dominant pattern is a 3 month Channel Up, which makes a HH on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The 4H MACD is identical to the pre-High consolidation of the past bullish waves. We are bullish (TP = 166.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDJPY H8 - Sell SignalUSDJPY H8
We were following USDJPY last week and this was something that unfolded nicely for us after a little bit of patience, profit was taken, risk was mitigated and we pushed back to entry following a stronger dollar during the NFP event on Friday.
We are now pushing to the extreme levels of our major resistance price. Slightly south of 152 for the moment. But the whole number could be a good price to see a final attempt at shorts. Remember, we haven’t traded north of 152 for over 3 decades. 34 years!
Opened stop loss a little here compared to previous measures, could certainly be worth a final shot. Offering between 10-15R.
A fantastic opportunity to sell EURJPYHi traders,
EURJPY is reached to powerful static and dynamic resistance and according to the overselling of JPY we could sell EURJPY with SL on highest price.
don't forget risk free it below the 158.
Entry price 161.3
Final TP 152.3
RR1:3
scalpers could take their profit on 158-9 level.
Be successes
Potential bearish dropThe price is rising towards a resistance level and could reverse from this level towards our take profit
Entry: 151.752
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop loss: 151.971
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance level
Take profit: 151.338
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week
The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data.
Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June.
Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.
In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time.
In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
NZDJPY possible dropAfter price impulsed to the upside to take out previously formed trend line liquidity, it preceded to break structure to the downside to continue with its bearish trend. We see a similar impulse happening that takes out recently formed trend line liquidity. This impulse quickly reverses after tapping into an extreme supply zone that was formed during the bearish push. It then gave us a confirmed change of character on lower time frame. Zooming in, we find that price has currently formed liquidity that it could use to fuel its move further to the downside after filling in some imbalance, taking out our recently formed low and its liquidity.