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J200

#TOP40 South Africa 40 finds support@ trendline + Horizontal supNote how the trendline that has formed has had its 3rd successive touch with a reversal candlestick. Each turn off support has created strong upside price action the following day. The level where the top40 found support is even more significant as the 67500 has been a massive change of polarity on many occasions through the second half of 2023. The bulls have their work cut out for them as the failure to hold price above the 200dma was not a positive development. However in the short term, i think we can retest 69300 and maybe 70 000 but ultimately a close and successive days of trading above 70k is needed for bulls to sustain momentum and drive the market higher.
JSE:J200Long
by MarcoOlevano
Tough year for JSE ALSI Positions TradersIt's been a very tough year for swing traders. Go long the market drops. Go short the market rallies. Don't do anything and you save from the burn. But in the bigger scheme of things, it looks like we are in an accumulation phase. The accumulation phase is a period in which smart money (informed and experienced traders or institutional investors) is believed to be accumulating a particular asset while it is still relatively undervalued. This phase occurs before a notable uptrend or bullish move in the market. Key characteristics of the accumulation phase include: Sideways Movement: Prices move within a trading range, often forming a base or a consolidation pattern. The range represents a period of equilibrium between buying and selling forces. You can see the JSE ALSI has been in a tight range this entire year. Decreasing Volume: Volume tends to decline during the accumulation phase, indicating a decrease in overall market activity. Lower volume signals that the asset is not attracting significant attention from the broader market. There have not been huge orders on the JSE ALSI like other years. It could be because there are LESS investors buying shares and more going into derivatives and margin trading. Or because they are worried about the state of the economy with load shedding, foreign direct investments pulling out, the country being rated down or people fleeing the country. Smart Money Accumulation: Informed traders or institutional investors quietly accumulate the asset during this phase. Their accumulation is not typically evident in the overall market activity due to the relatively low volume. Now with December, we could see investors piling into trades from their bonuses, offsetting taxes, preparing for the next year or with optimism with the festive season. Transition to Markup Phase: After a sufficient accumulation, there is an expectation that the asset's price will break out of the trading range. This breakout marks the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the markup phase, characterized by a sustained uptrend. So, my hopes and bets are UP. I think once we break out above the range, we could see the JSE ALSI rally a good 10 -20%. But geez, we need strong catalysts to kick in. Even if it's international markets helping us run up with Dual LIsted companies or America's leading influence. WHat are your thoughts? You think we'll get our long waited for rally? Traders and investors who stay in the game will reap the rewards. Patience is a traders virtue. Impatience is the reason why traders quit. They don't FAIL - THEY QUIT. Until then trade well... T
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 playing catchup with with AmericasNasdaq and Dow Jones have been leading the pack with the indices. And now it looks like the JSE ALSI 40 is about to catch up. It's broken above the downtrend since 1 August 2023 and is showing upside to come. During the process, it's formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The right shoulder is not the most attractive with the neckline, but it's the overall bullish price action that is leading it. Also we see a short term uptrend with the 7>21MA. However, the big test will be the price testing the 200MA. The RSI is also showing upside momentum. If all goes well we could see the first target at 78,847. It's important to hedge the positions accordingly and remember anything can happen. Hence the risk should be smaller than usual.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
JSE:J200 Effort Without ResponseThe Top40 has been on the rise since the covid lows, however, we can now see some cracks and we could be in for a correction back to 53000 for the rest of the year. My reasoning is as follows: - The buying climax (BC) of the latest trading range could not make it back to the overbought line showing a lack of interest. - Divergence on the RSI leading into the BC shows the interest to push higher is gone. - The effort (increase in volume) with each attempt to push higher could not make higher highs. Based on this it looks like that a break of the trendline could open the path for a drop back to 53000
JSE:J200Short
by SteynTrade
6
JSE Where are we at?Starting 2021 we find that the recovery from the Covid lows is still in progress. After a pullback and low formed in October 2020 we are seeing another push higher. Resources are again showing the most strength with a nearly 40% rise. However, financials are also recovering well at this stage but industrials are lagging. Over the holiday period, we have seen a push higher on lower volume but now we are finding a shoring of the stride. Watch for the next pullback in 2021 for the next opportunities.
JSE:J200
by SteynTrade
JSE:J200 Top40 Automatic RallyAfter the distribution and markdown (discussed in previous posts), we have had a selling climax (SC). This is noted by the high volume and capitulation of the market. Now we are seeing an automatic rally (AR) from the SC lows. This should back up (BU) to the previous distribution trading range. Once this is done we could see a trading range form (fluctuating within the bounds of the SC and AR) which we then can evaluate to determine if it is a redistribution or accumulation trading range. A number of stocks are rallying and we will watch for the retest to go short to test the SC lows.
JSE:J200Long
by SteynTrade
JSE:J200 Top40 Wyckoff Distribution and MarkdownInstitutional investors which include foreign investors have bee distributing the JSE stocks since 2015 (see posts below for further analysis). Following a Wyckoff approach to the markets an upsloping distribution range was formed and now the markdown has started. Price has broken the upsloping stride and the lows of the automatic reaction (AR) at the start of the trading range with the largest two down bars ever. We may have a rally back to the breakout levels but I am expecting further markdown to take place.
JSE:J200Short
by SteynTrade
JSE:J200 Top 40 Change in CharacterThis week has seen the largest down bar. Volatility to the downside has been increasing since 2015 and the clear change in character (CoC) last week could indicate a lot more downside to come. We have been following what has been looking like distribution for some time and this move could be the markdown in phase D. After a possible pause at the bottom of the trading range we could be in for a larger markdown below the trading range in phase E.
JSE:J200Short
by SteynTrade