JSE Where are we at?Starting 2021 we find that the recovery from the Covid lows is still in progress. After a pullback and low formed in October 2020 we are seeing another push higher. Resources are again showing the most strength with a nearly 40% rise. However, financials are also recovering well at this stage but industrials are lagging. Over the holiday period, we have seen a push higher on lower volume but now we are finding a shoring of the stride. Watch for the next pullback in 2021 for the next opportunities.
J212
JSE Financial Index: In Phase B of the Trading RangeThe financial index on the JSE has remained at the low levels after the drop. After the selling climax (SC) and automatic rally (AR) which demarcates Phase A of the Wyckoff trading range, we have seen the typical low volume trading in Phase B play out. Phase B typically takes some time to develop and we may have to wait sometime into next year to see significant action to start taking place. For now, the range seems to be bound between 900 and 1200 and I am not expecting many great trading opportunities. Only some range trades on well-selected stocks seem to be in play.
JSE:STXFIN JSE Financial Index (J212) Effort without ResponseUsing the Satrix Fini as a proxy for the financial index we notice that we are at an important decision point. There has been a declining interest in buying the index. Buying volume in 2016, 2017 and 2018 has failed to push the index to new highs and in 2019 volume has been low. Price has reached the long term oversold trend line and a break lower could open significant downside. Early in 2020 we will watch for signs of a change of character to indicate the markets bias but this looks bearish to me.
J212 - FINI 15JSE:J212
Lost some 13% in the value over last 15 trading days.
Clear down trend but it moved from mean. Look for some pull back before you think about taking short.
J212 - FINI15 JSE:J212
Two days ago tried to break above strong resistance. Didn't make and today making big engulfing bar.
This should go "From false move comes fast move"
Resource Still Showing StrengthSince 2016 the JSE has been declining relative to the S&P 500 but December has shown a change in character with the JSE consolidating while the S&P 500 declined. The Resources sector has been leading the charge and trading in a strong upward channel. In December the resource has reacted to the demand line and is showing strength going into 2019. Resources are further the only sector above its January 2018 high.