BABA | A trillion dollar criticismChinese tech titan Jack Ma had been having it rough ever since his criticism of Beijing triggered a backlash on his companies and wealth but a recent development may change the tide.
On Friday, China's central bank announced a fine of 7.12 billion yuan, or $985 million, for Ant Group the fintech giant co-founded by Ma that operates the Alipay payments app signaling that its years-long regulatory crackdown is ending.
But the years-long crackdown has taken a heavy toll on Ma's wealth and the market valuations of the companies he holds stakes in. Alibaba the flagship company he cofounded saw a 45%, or $620 billion, drop in market value since shares hit their peak in 2020, per Bloomberg's calculations on Sunday.
Ant Group is now valued at around $78.5 billion marking a steep 75% discount to its valuation of $315 billion in a scuttled IPO before Beijing's regulatory crackdown in 2020.
The collective $850 billion wipe out in Alibaba and Ant's valuations has sent Ma's net worth plunging from about $61 billion in October 2020 to $34.1 billion as of Monday
On a personal level, Ma has also been lying low for more than two years.Ma angered Chinese authorities after giving a speech in October 2020 in which he criticized China's financial regulatory system and claimed Chinese banks were operating with a "pawnshop" mentality. His words prompted intense regulatory scrutiny of his businesses including Alibaba and Ant and a wider crackdown on tech firms in China.
In January, he was spotted in Bangkok, where he visited a Michelin-starred street-food restaurant and watched a Muay Thai fight. He also popped up in Hong Kong in the same month.
In March, Ma returned to a school he founded in his hometown of Hangzhou in eastern China.
In April, he was appointed an honorary professor at the University of Hong Kong. In May, Ma took up a teaching position in Japan, one of the first public roles he has assumed since disappearing from the spotlight in 2020.
Last month, Ma attended the Alibaba Global Mathematics Competition finals in Hangzhou, where Alibaba is based.
Alibaba shares in Hong Kong were up 3% at 86.90 Hong Kong dollars apiece at midday, buoyed by news of the fine. The company's shares in New York closed 8.1% higher at $90.55 apiece on Friday.
Jackma
Alibaba's Jack Ma Makes a Bold ReturnAlibaba's co-founder, Jack Ma, has emerged from the shadows to pen a morale-boosting memo to employees. This rare move comes after years of maintaining a low profile following a tumultuous clash with Chinese regulators. Ma's endorsement of Alibaba's sweeping restructuring efforts marks a significant moment for the tech giant, prompting a surge in shares and signaling a potential return to the spotlight for the billionaire entrepreneur.
Jack Ma's Memo: A Vote of Confidence in Alibaba's Transformation:
In his memo, Ma expresses his support for Alibaba's decision to split into six units, heralding it as a pivotal step towards streamlining the company's operations and fostering agility. Acknowledging the challenges and mistakes of the past, Ma emphasizes the importance of embracing reform and charting a responsible path toward the future. His words of encouragement reflect a renewed sense of purpose within Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ), with a focus on efficiency, market responsiveness, and courageous leadership.
Praise for Company Leadership and Resilient Team Spirit:
Ma's memo also commends the leadership of CEO Eddie Wu and Chairman Joe Tsai, highlighting their admirable courage and wisdom in navigating the company through turbulent times. Despite facing intense regulatory scrutiny and market pressures, Ma lauds the resilience and bravery of the Alibaba team, noting the emergence of a stronger, more united workforce.
Impact on Market Sentiment and Investor Confidence:
The release of Ma's memo has sparked a significant uptick in Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares, signaling a renewed sense of optimism among investors. The endorsement from one of the company's most influential figures has instilled confidence in Alibaba's restructuring efforts and leadership direction, positioning it for potential growth and stability in the future.
Jack Ma's Return: A Symbolic Shift in Alibaba's Narrative:
Ma's public endorsement marks a symbolic shift in Alibaba's narrative, signaling a potential return to prominence for the tech giant and its visionary co-founder. After years of speculation and uncertainty surrounding Ma's whereabouts and intentions, his reemergence offers hope for Alibaba's continued success and innovation in the ever-evolving tech landscape.
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai Signal Confidence with $200 Million BuyAlibaba's Rebound:
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has witnessed a significant boost in its stock value following reports that co-founder Jack Ma and Chairman Joe Tsai have collectively invested $200 million in the company's shares. This strategic move by the visionary leaders has caught the attention of investors and analysts alike, signaling renewed confidence in the e-commerce giant.
Background:
Alibaba's US-traded shares experienced an impressive 8.6% surge in New York, marking the most substantial intraday increase since last July. The company had previously faced a challenging period, with its stock declining by 43% over the past 12 months, losing ground to formidable Chinese competitors like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and PDD Holdings Inc.
Insider Buying Signals Optimism:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's decision to buy shares during a period of decline reflects their firm belief in Alibaba's intrinsic value. This move is particularly noteworthy given Ma's recent criticism of the company's trajectory, urging internal corrections and acknowledging the success of rivals like PDD.
Tsai's Blue Pool Management family investment vehicle made a bold statement with the purchase of almost 2 million Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) shares, valued at approximately $152 million in the fourth quarter. Notably, this marks the first time Tsai's fund has acquired Alibaba shares since at least the last quarter of 2017, as indicated by regulatory filings.
Jack Ma's Return to Investing:
Jack Ma, who had been gradually selling off his Alibaba shares in recent years, made a notable comeback to the buying table by investing $50 million in the company's stock during the quarter. Ma's stake in Alibaba had previously dipped below 5%, and his decision to reinvest suggests a rekindled belief in the company's potential for resurgence.
Market Reaction and Business Overhaul:
The market's positive response to the insider buying spree reflects investor optimism and confidence in Alibaba's future prospects. Despite challenges, Alibaba is currently valued at around $175 billion.
Alibaba is currently undergoing a significant overhaul, abandoning plans to spin off its cloud business due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. export curbs on AI technology. This strategic shift in the company's structure comes as it faces fierce competition from Pinduoduo and contends with a slower-than-expected retail recovery post-pandemic.
Conclusion:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's substantial investment in Alibaba speaks volumes about their unwavering belief in the company's potential for recovery and growth. As Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) navigates a transformative period, investors are likely to closely watch the implementation of its new business strategies and the impact of these insider purchases on the company's future trajectory. The duo's confidence may serve as a beacon of hope for Alibaba, inspiring a renewed sense of trust among stakeholders and potentially signaling brighter days ahead for the e-commerce giant.
BABA BULLISH SCENARIOAlibaba has decided not to join the share buyback of its fintech arm, Ant Group. Ant Group remains an important partner, and Alibaba wants to maintain its shareholding. The buyback was initiated following Beijing's crackdown on web giants, with Ant Group receiving a substantial fine. Alibaba's stock value in Ant Group remains lower than in 2020 when an IPO was canceled. Speculation arises about a potential IPO retry, but significant changes have occurred since then, including Alibaba's split into six companies and a reshuffling of its executive leadership. Earnings anticipations set BABA in a good direction.
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BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA when Charlie Munger did:
or reentered when it was cheaper than the IPO:
Now looking at the BABA Alibaba options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $110 strike price Calls with
2023-8-18 expiration date for about
$10.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
I have chosen that expiration date to allow me to be wrong and not close the position and to have a bigger gain by the expiration date, if BABA Alibaba keeps on climbing.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited - Risk Assessment ReportAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) shares gained over 7% in pre-market trading August 4 after posting good results for its difficult first fiscal quarter. Both sales and earnings per share were higher than expected. For the June quarter, revenue was $30.7 billion, similar to the previous year. Even though it was the weakest rate of growth on record, investors welcomed it because consensus had previously predicted a fall for the very first time in Alibaba's history owing to sweeping city-wide lockdowns in April and May. Earnings for the June quarter also above consensus projections by $0.19 per share, coming in at $1.75, highlighting smart cost reductions in the face of inflationary pressures and the higher expenses of navigating through COVID interruptions.
However, sentiment toward Alibaba shares remains shaky. All of its gains from the May to July rise have been erased in recent weeks, with the stock now down over 22% since the start of the year. The broad theme for Alibaba stock remains volatility, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy have been shattered in recent weeks by news of heightened concerns about a faltering domestic economy and renewed regulatory concerns. The market's scepticism over Alibaba shares is underscored by the limited gain in pre-market trading following a favourable earnings surprise this morning.
However, sentiment toward Alibaba shares remains shaky. All of its gains from the May to July rise have been erased in recent weeks, with the stock now down over 20% since the start of the year. The broad theme for Alibaba stock remains volatility, as optimistic uptrends bolstered by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, improved COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to sustain the Chinese economy have been shattered in recent weeks by news of heightened concerns about a faltering domestic economy and renewed regulatory concerns. The market's scepticism over Alibaba shares is underscored by the limited gain in pre-market trading following a favourable earnings surprise this morning.
Although Alibaba's valuation seems reasonable at present levels, given its strong balance sheet and continued dominance in e-commerce and cloud-computing services in China, the stock is nonetheless overshadowed by dangers that are in flux. The instability of Alibaba's comeback over the last year demonstrates that the fundamental dangers to the stock continue to overshadow any advantageous valuation. With all of Alibaba's key underlying concerns continuing in a very volatile condition with no structural signs of change, the stock has practically nothing to stand on its own against the extra challenge of brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba might fall in the short term as its primary Chinese market and surrounding overseas markets battle with a weakening macroeconomic environment, making it a high-risk investment decision despite what appear to be good pricing compared to rivals in a comparable company.
Risk Factors
The decline in Alibaba shares occurred in late 2020, when rising regulatory worries prompted a valuation adjustment in U.S listed Chinese securities. Since then, the condition has deteriorated as regulatory obstacles began to have an impact on Alibaba's basic performance. Subsequent macroeconomic challenges, like COVID interruptions in China and a deteriorating local and global economy, have only worsened the bad outcomes.
Despite recent optimism emanating from the conclusion of high-profile inquiries, such as the cybersecurity inquiry into DiDi Global (OTCPK:DIDIY) and the announcement of fresh gaming license permits, regulatory concerns remain apparent, and investors' trust is eroding. Markets continued to penalise the stock at the first indication of regulatory shortcomings, as seen by recent drops in response to reports that Alibaba was fined $375,000 in early July for breaking state guidelines on past acquisition disclosures. Its cloud division was being probed for its possible involvement in one of the country's greatest ever data breaches.
Regulatory probing of Alibaba's operations has had additional negative effects on its core performance. Due to growing national security concerns in the public sector, the company's cloud-computing business, Alicloud, is gradually declining in market share to its state-backed counterparts. In China, the unit's market share plummeted from 45.9 percent in 2019 to 36.7 percent in 2021, while state-backed rival Huawei's cloud market share more than quadrupled during the same period. Despite remaining China's top public cloud service provider, Alicloud is no longer the favoured option as the CCP intensifies efforts for data security within government entities. As a result, the Chinese government has eliminated foreign PCs and has accelerated the transition from private clouds like Alicloud to governmental cloud platforms, jeopardizing Alibaba's unified bottom-line performance. This is supported by a slowdown in Alibaba's highly successful cloud business in the first quarter, when sales increased by only 9% year on year, the weakest rate on record.
Alibaba annual report FY22
Chinese stocks are still kept captive by the HFCAA, as the US SEC ramps up efforts to guarantee that all securities on the United States stock market are governed by the same regulations and regulatory procedures, particularly complying with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Investors' worries about the prospect of the company being delisted have recently returned as Alibaba was recently added to the list of delinquent firms whose auditors have disobeyed PCAOB inspection requirements. This essentially starts a countdown for Alibaba, putting it at risk of delisting from the NYSE if Chinese officials are unable to achieve a settlement with the SEC and PCAOB on giving up the books of its domestic firms for scrutiny.
The global economy's slowdown threatens to undermine Alibaba's recent change in focus to expanding its overseas e-commerce platforms. During the June quarter, Alibaba's foreign commerce retail sector sales fell by 2.7% year on year, while order volumes fell by 4.1% year on year. Rising inflation and restrictive central bank policies in Alibaba's key abroad markets, like the United States and Europe, have resulted in lower consumer discretionary spending, complicating Alibaba's efforts to compensate for domestic commerce slowdown with worldwide growth.
In the long run, we anticipate that the combined business will expand at a moderate five-year CAGR of 5.7 percent, with Alicloud serving as the catalyst. As noted in the preceding study, Beijing's regulatory makeover of the private sector over the last two years has fundamentally altered the exponential growth that Chinese big tech previously enjoyed. we anticipate that any long-term revival in Alibaba's business would be modest. However, given the macro uncertainties in both domestic and international markets, Alibaba's share price could possibly hit $70-75 range
Alibaba set to break long down trendFor various reasons, the Chinese tech giant Alibaba has been in a downtrend since October 2020. The company has had many headwinds, most of them related to the regulatory environment in China. Most of those issues now seem to be resolving, and I think BABA will be one of the better performers in the coming year.
The China Credit Impulse
A major leading indicator for China stocks is Bloomberg's "China Credit Impulse" index. As the following chart from MacroMicro shows, the credit impulse's last peak more or less coincided with the last peak in Alibaba in October 2020:
As you can also see from the chart, the credit impulse now seems to have bottomed and is improving, a bullish sign for China stocks and for Alibaba in particular.
Whereas the US and most other developed nations have been raising interest rates, China is actually in a rate-cutting cycle. Key policy rates in China have only been cut by about 15 basis points, so I don't want to make it sound like they're cutting rates drastically, but they're certainly not raising them, and there's no sign yet that they intend to do so. That makes China potentially a safe haven from rising rates in the US and other developed markets.
countryeconomy.com
US Delisting Risk
For the last couple years, the US has been making noise about delisting China ADRs (the depository shares that China companies use to trade on US exchanges. The SEC has been demanding that Chinese companies comply with US accounting regulations, and the Chinese government has been making it impossible for these companies to do so.
At the same time, China enacted a crackdown on big tech companies. The crackdown included steep penalties imposed on Alibaba, including a $2.8 billion fine for monopolistic behavior. The Chinese government also disappeared Alibaba's founder, Jack Ma, for three months.
This is "the big one" for Alibaba, but the problem recently seems to be headed toward a resolution. Jack Ma eventually reappeared in Hong Kong and has dutifully been doing as he's told, including restructuring Ant Group and selling off media companies to address the Chinese government's monopoly concerns. Last week, the Chinese government signaled through state media that the tech crackdown should be over soon, and that the Chinese regulatory commission will support companies in complying with US accounting requirements so that ADRs can remain listed in the US:
www.cnbc.com
While this isn't yet a done deal, it looks really promising and could lead to a large rally in China stocks if and when it gets across the finish line.
Zero Tolerance Covid Policy
China has had a policy of zero tolerance for Covid, which means the whole country goes into lockdown every time a Covid outbreak happens. This one is not as big a deal for Alibaba, because it's an ecommerce company and thus potentially a beneficiary from people staying home. But I suspect that if China ended this zero tolerance policy, the entire China stock market would rally, including Alibaba. There have, indeed, been rumors that China may end the policy, as reported by the LA Times:
www.latimes.com
China has a pretty high vaccination rate overall, but they've used the somewhat less effective Sinovac vaccine, and the elderly population surprisingly has been less willing to get vaccinated than younger people, so death rates in the current outbreak have been pretty high. This may make it difficult to end the zero tolerance policy, but they have to end it sometime, so we'll see.
Alibaba Valuation and Buybacks
Alibaba's got something like an 8% free cash flow yield, which makes it a pretty incredible value for a big tech stock. EV/EBITDA is about 10x, which is mid-range for China's consumer discretionary sector and way below US tech firms of comparable size. The valuation makes BABA hard to resist. They could flush half their capital down the toilet and still be a better value than a lot of US tech.
And the signs are that they plan to deploy their capital well rather than poorly. Yesterday Alibaba announced that it will increase its buyback program from $15 billion to $25 billion, which means it will opportunistically take advantage of low share prices to efficiently return capital to shareholders. That's called good capital allocation, and it's one of the things I look for in an investment. It's a really good sign for Alibaba here.
Technicals
As you can see from the chart, Alibaba has been in a long downtrend. It looks ready to attempt a breakout from that downtrend, however. I'm adding on any pullback to the 112-116 range and looking for a test of that downtrend line probably within a couple weeks.
BABA: The worst is over?!Alibaba
Short Term - We look to Buy at 101.70 (stop at 87.10)
Broken out of the triangle formation to the upside. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. A mild correction has been posted from yesterdays high, this is seen as a retest of the breakout level. Reverse trend line support comes in at 100.00. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 139.64 and 150.00
Resistance: 140.00 / 160.00 / 200.00
Support: 100.00 / 90.00 / 60.00
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BABA Lowest Growth on Record !!If you haven`t sold BABA here, when i warned you about the additional American depositary share registration in the U.S. that was translated by Citigroup`s analysts as SoftBank Group intention to sell part of its stake.
Softbank was a pre-initial public offering investor in BABA, owning 5.39 billion ordinary Alibaba shares, or a 24.8% stake.
Then you should know that Alibaba had the Lowest Growth on Record. Sales rose 9.7% in Q4, below the 40%-plus growth that was common. consumer spending slows and competition intensifies.
Net income tumbled 74% to $3.2 billion.
And probably Softbank sells an important stake in it.
I`m curious what is Charlie Munger`s conviction buy opinion on BABA now.
My price target is the Dec 2016 level of $86.
BABA SoftBank to Sell Its Huge Stake ???Additional American depositary share registration in the U.S. was translated by Citigroup`s analysts as SoftBank Group intention to sell part of its stake.
Softbank was a pre-initial public offering investor in BABA, owning 5.39 billion ordinary Alibaba shares, or a 24.8% stake,
The can drop to the $109 support, if not even lower.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$BABA: It's time, load up the truck...I think $BABA likely bottoms around here, the 14 week down trend signal that predicted this decline reached its final week and price will gap down into long term support from the all time 25% speed line for the whole advance from the bottom to the top. Sentiment had reached critical levels for equities last week already, and there's a path out of this mess with Evergrande possibly under control and most investors liquidated out of this stock, reaching lows not seen since 2019. Valuation is interesting now, so, it seems like a good play to try and knife catch this one. I once tried with the $KWEB etf which had completed a similar down trend recently, which led to a rapid rebound rally but that rally was faded after I took profits, and prices retraced back near the bottom on the back $BABA's continued weakness.
The time is likely now, to try and fade this largely hyped fall, after most people trying to catch the bottom gave up already. Let's roll!
I risk 1 average true range down, below this support level here, I will then monitor daily charts for a bullish trend signal after basing, to accumulate more shares and trail my stop loss higher.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Alibaba Breakout + SeasonalityBABA broke out two days ago, with above average intraday volume.
OBV is confirming slight positive trend.
Taking a look at seasonality:
We are entering July, which has been THE best performing month in the past 8 years.
BABA has closed higher than it opened 83% of the time in July, since 2014.
Approximate Potential Target ---> $275
BABA on a key area. Bullish breakout or bearish continuation?Today we will share a daily view of the $BABA chart.
Main aspects we can see here:
-The price is facing an ascending trendline.
-The previous level converges with a support/resistance zone working since 2018.
-The current bearish trend can be defined as a descending Wedge pattern (if the price keeps moving between the structure lines, of course.)
If I'm interested in bullish movements only. What can you wait for before trading?
-A clear scenario for a bullish continuation movement would be a breakout of the structure followed by a corrective movement (like the circle you can see on the chart. Of course, take it as a model to replicate). IF that happens, we will be setting pending orders above the structure (green horizontal line), and we aim for a target on the next resistance zone 268 - 274
-Risk and time.
-We will be risking 1% of our capital on this setup. Meaning that if the price executes our order and then goes straight to our stop loss, we will be losing 1% of our capital at that level. Then, if we aim to a risk-reward ratio of 2, we will be making 2% of our capital in the best scenario. If the order is executed, we expect a resolution between 15 to 30 days.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comment box.
Alibaba (BABA) Crashes -Is Jack Ma Missing? - Buy or SellAlibaba (BABA) has plunged 34% since Oct 2020 with lots of negative news going on. Is BABA hitting the bottom yet or further distribution to come?
The negative news ranged from suspend of ANT's IPO, investigation over monopolistic behavior, Jack Ma's missing, executive order to ban Alipay and plan to ban Americans from investing BABA, etc…All these bad news are still unfolding with lots of selling of BABA in the background.
Let's look at BABA based on price action trading aspect from long term, medium term and short term aspects, with only price and volume to determine if BABA hit the bottom yet and what to expect next.
Disclaimer: The information in this presentation is solely for educational purpose and should not be taken as investment advice.
Alibaba (Never Outshine the Master)View On Alibaba (28 Dec 2020)
Jack Ma made 1 big mistake. It is called " Never Outshine the master"
This Kampong boy couldn't just resist the new found fame in recent years and crossed some people.
Now his investors are paying the price.
Alibaba is still a good company but I kind of doubt it will shine again soon. Stocks may go back up to 260-280 but every swing up now is chance to sell, IMO.
Let's see..
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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BABA Analysis (ALIBABA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD)When NYSE:BABA closes significantly above the green rectangle area (Significantly above the 201.5) , I think it would very likely to continue up to around the 209-210 area (Around first blue line) , with a potential to reach the 219-220 level (second blue line) , depending on how price would act around the 209-210 area .
BABA: New CEO at the helm, valuation isn't badI'm watching $BABA for an upside breakout of 179.88, which could trigger an explosive rally in the stock. Today wouldn't be a bad long entry here, with a wide stop at 163.96, but once the breakout happens, another trade with a stop at 171.43 can be placed...Upside targets are up to 276 in the long term.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
tZERO Launched, looking good if they can spin out retail.Overstock has a lot going on an is changing business models. Some targets for you guys if things go according to their plan this year.