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Jacksonhole

EUR/USD dips as German business climate fallsThe euro is in negative territory on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1156 at the time of writing, down 0.32% on the day. The euro posted strong gains on Friday, rising 0.73% and breaking above 1.12 for the first time since July 17. The markets got what they were looking for from Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Friday – an endorsement for a rate cut. Powell didn’t specify when the Fed would cut but said that the “time has come for policy to adjust”. Investors are ready for the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years at the Sept. 18 meeting. What is still up in the air is the size of the cut. Just one month ago, the odds of a 25-basis point cut stood at 88% and 12% for a cut of 50 bps, according to the CME’s FedWatch. Since then, the US economy has posted some weaker-than-expected data and the probability of a 25-bps reduction has fallen to 63.5% for a 25-bps cut vs. 36.5% for a 50 bps move. One key factor in the Fed’s decision will be the August jobs report on Sept. 6. A very weak report for July panicked investors that the US economy was hurtling towards a recession and financial markets were routed before bouncing back. Another weak jobs report could rattle investors and push the Fed to respond with a 50-bps cut. The expected September cut will mark the start of a new rate cycle for the Fed, which has maintained rates at 5.25%-5.50% for over a year. The Fed is expected to lower rates at least one more time this year and continue trimming into 2025. Germany’s Ifo Institute business climate sentiment index declined in August for a fourth consecutive time as the German economy continues to struggle. The index eased to 86.6, down from 87.0 but above the market estimate of 86.0. The survey’s manufacturing component dropped sharply and the services component also fell. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1165. Below, there is support at 1.1130 1.1229 and 1.1264 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Canadian dollar jumps on retail sales reboundThe Canadian dollar is showing some strength on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3532 at the time of writing, down 0.60% on the day. The Canadian dollar is at its highest level since early April and is poised to post its third winning week in a row. Canada’s retail sales report was a mix. In June, retail sales fell 0.3% m/m, confirming the initial estimate and following a May reading of -0.8%. However, the initial estimate for July jumped 0.6%, which would indicate a much-needed rebound in consumer spending. Retail sales were down 0.5% in the second quarter and 0.4% in Q1, which would mark the weakest two quarters since 2009, outside the covid pandemic. The spike in July is likely due to the Bank of Canada’s quarter-point rate cuts in June and July, bringing down the benchmark rate to 4.5%. The BoC is expected to continue to trim rates as inflation has eased and the labor market shows signs of decline. The annual Jackson Hole meeting has begun and the highlight of the summit will be today’s speech from the host, Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The markets are all ears, although it would not be a surprise if Powell’s speech is little more than a cautious acknowledgment that inflation is moving in the right direction and that the Fed is poised to cut at the Sept. 18 meeting. The markets have fully priced in a rate cut at next month’s meeting, with the odds at 71% for a 25-basis point cut and 29% for a 50-bps cut, according to CME’s FedWatch. There’s a strong chance that the Fed will deliver additional cuts before the end of the year, but recent employment data has been very weak and that could delay further rate cuts. The next employment report on Sept. 6 will be a key factor in determining the Fed’s rate path. USD/CAD has pushed below support at 1.3578 and is testing support at 1.3538. Below, there is support at 1.3478 There is resistance at 1.3628 and 1.3653
by OANDA
Could demand for the dollar pick up once more today?The dollar saw strong bids overnight as robust macroeconomic data (unemployment claims and Composite PMI) functioned as bullish catalysts. With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kicking things off at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today, could we see another round of higher demand for the greenback and thus a further a decline in EUR/USD? High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
by FXCM
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: We had a decent move today with last nights resistance holding price at 2520 giving the opportunity to short into the bias level targets 2500 and 2497. Unfortunately, we didn't get the short from that higher level that we wanted, but managed to get something out of it. We've now corrected the move back up into the order region with the same resistance level active, as shown on the chart. With Jackson Hole looming and tomorrow being a day with potential volume, we would say play caution now as they may want to accumulate again here, swoop the high, then come back down again. If they fail to break above, you can see the path continue to the downside as projected in the KOG Report. We would now say stand aside, wait for the break in either direction. Resistance levels - 2510 / 2515 / 2520 / 2524 Support levels - 2505 (needs to break) We have linked the previous post on Jackson Hole below, please have a good look and prepare yourself for what's potentially to come. Please don't treat it like you're everyday market condition, and please trade sensibly. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give? Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give? Credit Agricole anticipates a potential rally in USD/JPY this week, hinging on market reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming address at Jackson Hole. The bank suggests that traders might need to recalibrate their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Current market sentiment, as reflected in the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, shows a 77.5% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut and a 22.5% chance of a 50 basis-point cut. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, David Mericle, also aligns with the 25 basis-point outlook for September, downplaying the likelihood of a more aggressive move. The focus will be on Powell’s speech, scheduled for Friday at 10 a.m. ET. Should Powell strike a less dovish tone than expected, key resistance levels at 150.00 and 152.00 could be tested, with the potential for USD/JPY to surge even higher.
by BlackBull_Markets
Asian Currencies May Stall as Jackson Hole Looms Investors will be watching a series of key Asian central bank decisions and inflation reports this week, as regional currencies rally to annual highs. The Bank of Korea is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday, followed by inflation data from Japan and Singapore on Friday. The U.S. dollar's slide resumed from last week, with markets embracing a risk-on sentiment. The yen climbed past 146 per dollar, marking its strongest level in nearly two weeks. Further selling could open up the 140.450 mark. However, Bank of America sees the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium as a game-changer, with Fed Chair Powell possibly striking a more hawkish tone, which could strengthen the dollar. This could make the Asian currencies trades interesting considering the risk-on sentiment that has helped push them to multi-month and yearly highs. The South Korean won has surged to a five-month high, as the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates this week. The BOK is expected to maintain its policy rate at 3.50%. The Singapore dollar has also extended its gains, reaching an 18-month high.
by BlackBull_Markets
Fed’s Powell to Address Rate Cuts at Jackson Hole: What to KnowThe annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium takes place this week. Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, will step up to the podium on August 23 and shed light into the central bank’s interest rate-cut timeline. His words will echo around global markets and either propel stocks higher on rate-cut optimism or knock them down if the outlook turns gloomy in the lead-up to the Fed's rate-setting meeting on September 18. No in-between. The most exclusive retreat in central banking — the Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium — is gathering top bankers, economists, financiers and other financial heavyweights for three days of idea swapping, hint dropping and market popping (hopefully.) What’s Jackson Hole? Every August, the top dogs in global finance trade their suits for some Wyoming flannel and gather at Jackson Hole. Hosted by the Kansas City Fed since 1978, this is the forum to brainstorm the future of monetary policy and send it out to traders ready to absorb every word. It’s like summer camp for the financial elite, except the campfire stories can crash markets or send them soaring. When the Fed Chair speaks here, the world listens. Major policy shifts have been telegraphed at Jackson Hole, from hints of rate hikes to the next round of quantitative easing. If you’re trading, you can’t afford to ignore what’s said — or not said — in these mountain-side discussions. Highlights from Past Forums 2010: Ben Bernanke, then Fed Chair, hinted at QE2, a measure to spur growth and keep prices steady through bond purchases, and the markets took off like a rocket. Were you long? Because it was a good time to be long. 2020: Jerome Powell unveiled a major shift in Fed policy towards average inflation targeting. The central bank was more inclined to tolerate inflation above the ideal 2% target before it started pumping interest rates. Expectations for This Week’s Gathering This week’s Fed event will be especially meaningful and consequential. The Fed boss is slated to present his keynote address on August 23. Jay Powell, the man who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon,” has a lot to break down. Inflation has been going down recently. The latest figures show the consumer price index for July slipped under the 3% mark for the first time since 2021. Consumer spending remains resilient. The retail sales report, again for July, showed that the mighty American shopper upped spending by 1% , topping expectations. The labor market, however, got way off the beaten path. Just 114,000 new jobs were created in July. This is also what caused the global market shake-up that sent ripples through every asset class — from stocks to crypto and beyond. Against this economic backdrop, Jay Powell will be moving markets and making headlines as he delivers his remarks. Front and center is some sort of further confirmation of an expected interest rate cut — already communicated and most likely already priced in. The question now is not if, but by how much interest rates are getting trimmed. Analysts expect borrowing costs to go down either by 25 basis points or a bigger, juicier 50-basis-point cut. And here’s what each one of these means and what’s at stake. If the Fed chooses to cut rates down by 25bps, it risks not doing enough to prevent the economy from tipping into a recession. Higher rates for longer make it more difficult for businesses to borrow and drive growth. But if the Fed chooses to cut rates by too much — a jumbo 50bps cut — it runs the risk of reigniting inflation and, what’s even more, fueling another speculative bull run in the markets. Low rates make money less expensive as loans cost less. The expansive monetary policy measure of cutting interest rates aims to boost economic growth both on the business level and the consumer level. Companies take out loans to expand their operations, build new stuff and hire more workers. And the average consumer finds it easier to get a mortgage or buy a new car (or some Bitcoin ?). Overall, more money is spinning around, creating opportunity and offering liquidity for deals across markets. Brace yourselves as Jay Powell gets ready to drop some hints and prepare the audience for the Fed’s next meeting coming September 17-18. The markets may very well be heading into a rollercoaster few weeks as they try to predict the scale of interest rate cuts. Are you getting ready to pop a trade open this week? Share your thoughts and expectations below!
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by TradingView
8
The Scenario for New EUR/USD 2024 Highs? Market sentiment is leaning towards three more rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, while economists are more cautious, expecting just two. Should the economists be correct, 2023’s high for the EUR/USD pair could be back in play. The market's confidence in ECB rate cuts outpaces that in the Federal Reserve. The Fed, facing closer scrutiny, is walking a tighter rope; its first rate cut in years will likely be the most important event of the year (possibly bigger than the US election), as it marks the beginning of a new monetary-policy phase. Adding to the intrigue is a recent uptick in Eurozone inflation, which suggests that progress on this front may have stalled. In contrast, many believe that U.S. inflation is either under control or nearing that point. This week's Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled for August 22-24, could provide further insights, particularly from European policymakers. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is already confirmed as a speaker, but the full agenda of talks is released closer to the opening day.
by BlackBull_Markets
What to Expect at Jackson Hole Next Week? Traders will next hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his highly anticipated address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The key question hanging over the market: Will Powell use this speech to pave the way for a potential interest rate cut in September? Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, argues that Powell should take this opportunity to celebrate the Fed's achievements and steer the market toward a 25-basis-point cut next month. Powell is expected to continue the tradition of Fed chairs delivering opening remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, scheduled for Friday morning next week. Market participants are currently divided on whether the Fed will opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point reduction. However, the true size of the cut could be influenced by the August jobs report, set to be released just a week after the Jackson Hole summit.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/25 Notwithstanding Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, our models continue to not give credence to the bounce above 4400 in SPX. We need confirmatory signs before we negate our bearish bias. In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4421, 4407, 4384, 4372, or 4356 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4430, 4417, 4405, 4381, 4367, or 4353 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
DLTR drops after earnings follows the market down DLTR dropped on a mild earnings beat. It is now below a volume shelf at 128. Indicators including the MACD suggest a reversal as bullish divergence is showing. The mass index supports a reversal. On the dual time frame RSI, the low TF green line is above the higher TF black line which is weaker. Overall, DLTR could retrace to 133 based on the Fib retracement tool However, I will not take this trade until price crosses above the POC line. !33 will be the first target and 134.5 the second target being the mean VWAP. I will take a call on options trade as well. I will only enter if the general market indices appear to be upgoing which is a challenge given the upcoming Powell speech at Jackson Hole If the market is down turning, the trade will be paused and reassessed at early next week.
NASDAQ:DLTRLong
by AwesomeAvani
Gold's Jackson Hole Rally: What's Next? Gold is possibly still within its descending channel, though it has discovered a foothold at $1885 and demonstrated an upward shift this week due to a decline in bond yields. However, the anticipation is for the Fed funds rate to remain higher for longer, so gold’s upside potential might be short-lived. Butting up against this hypothesis is the very recent surge in gold from $1900 to $1916. This surge can be attributed to a weakened USD, which followed the release of several data points, including a decline in the US Composite PMI to 50.4 in August (below the expected 52.0), and a drop in the Manufacturing PMI to 47.0, reaching a low point for the past two months. For downside risk, bears may again target the $1880 and $1885 resistance if the price falls back below $1908 level (200 SMA). Immediate upside risk is potentially restricted at $1920 (20 SMA). Jerome Powell is set to take the stage at the Jackson Hole Symposium in the next 48 hours (scheduled for 10:05am ET Friday) and gold’s near-term trajectory will likely be guided by this significant event. Interestingly, the pound is bucking the trend of a softer US dollar. The GBPUSD weakened to $1.2716, as traders digested the UKs equally weaker-than-expected PMI data. The latest UK Private Sector Output Fell the most in 31 months (about 2 and a half years).
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/USD pares losses after soft PMIsThe British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720, down 0.09%. The UK economy continues to cool down, and today's PMI readings showed deceleration in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The Manufacturing PMI eased to 42.5 in August, down from 45.3 and below the consensus estimate of 42.5. The Services PMI disappointed and fell into contraction territory, with a reading of 48.7. This was lower than the July reading of 51.5 and missed the estimate of 50.8. GBP/USD fell over 100 basis points earlier but has recovered these losses. The weak data might not be such bad news as far as the Bank of England is concerned. The battle to curb inflation has not gone all that well, as the UK has the dubious honour of having the highest inflation among G-7 countries. If weakness in the manufacturing and services sectors dampens hiring and weighs on the tight labour markets, inflationary pressures could ease. The Bank of England meets in September and the markets have fully priced in a rate hike, but it's unclear what will happen after that, with the markets pricing in one more hike before the end of the year. The BoE's rate path after September will depend heavily on upcoming inflation and employment reports. It has been a light week on the data calendar and investors will be hoping for some interesting comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium which begins on Thursday. The Fed and other major central banks are expected to wind up their rate-tightening cycles and Jackson Hole has often served as a venue for announcing shifts in policy. Fed Chair Powell has insisted that the fight against inflation is not done, with inflation still above the 2% target. There is talk in the markets of the Fed trimming rates next year, but I would be surprised if Powell mentions rate cuts in his speech on Friday. GBP/USD pushed below support at 1.2714 and 1.2641 before rebounding higher There is resistance at 1.2812 and 1.2885
by OANDA
Gold, Yen, Dollar to Hang on Powell's Words at Jackson Hole With treasury yields hovering close to their highest point in the past 15 years, attention is squarely focused on the forthcoming policy speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell this Friday at the Jackson Hole event. The primary interest lies in gauging the current level of hawkishness exhibited by the Federal Reserve. Anticipations are that Fed Chair Jay Powell will reiterate the sentiment expressed during the July policy meeting, emphasizing the persistence of elevated inflation and the Fed's unwavering commitment to restoring inflation to the central bank's targeted 2%. Naturally, the subtleties within his communication will hold the real significance. Will his indications suggest that the Fed draws encouragement from the recent series of more moderate inflation metrics, potentially signaling an upcoming prolonged pause in the Fed's actions? Alternatively, will he lay the groundwork for another one or even two additional interest rate hikes? The latter scenario could potentially result in a further strengthening of the US dollar and the continued weakness of gold. XAU/USD finds itself trading below all its moving averages, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average consistently rebuffing any attempts at upward advancement. Two currencies that warrant close observation for potential intervention are the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. Market analysts presently perceive the intervention threshold for the yen to be around 150 against the dollar, while indications point to ongoing intervention efforts concerning the yuan. According to Reuters, state-owned Chinese banks were observed actively supporting the offshore yuan on Monday.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
KOG REPORT:KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would keep the bias as bearish below 1945 and we would be looking for the target level of 1890. Ideally, we wanted the support levels to hold giving us a move for the long trades, and then we would be looking upside resistance to short the market again down into the given level. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the move to the upside we wanted, instead, Excalibur kept activating short only giving us level to level opportunities for good captures, but not the big one that we wanted. It ended with one of the best week’s we’ve had in Camelot with a succession of completed targets across the markets and US30 being the star of the week. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We have a few levels on the radar for this week with the key levels being the 1860-65 region support and the 1899-1903 level resistance level with the extension above that at 1906-10. The bias will remain as bearish below of which the levels will be given daily updates but the preference this week will be on trying to capture the bounce from support levels. For that reason, we will be looking at price attempting to target the immediate resistance levels above 1895 and above that 1899 where if we see strong resistance, we feel an opportunity to short the market down into the support levels could exist. It’s these lower support levels where again this week we will be looking for the reaction in price in attempt to capture the long trade back up into the higher resistance levels initially 1910 and above that 1917-20. Now, on the flip, if we break resistance to the upside, we will be switching to level-to-level trading following Excalibur to the upside and looking for a strong level of resistance. Upon a confirmed set up, we will be looking to short the market back down into that support level following the bias and the daily targets. What we need to keep in mind is that we have Jackson Hole coming up towards the end of the week. It is very likely we will see choppy price action and potentially a range forming towards Thursday and Friday. We have published the previous analysis on Jackson Hole (link below), please have a look at this as it will give you an idea of the potential the market has to really move price aggressively. We will post part 2 during the week. KOG's Bias for the week: Bearish below 1907 Bullish on break of 1907 Key levels: Resistance: 1899 / 1910 /1917 /1920 Support: 1880 / 1875 /1867 / 1860 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
11
KOG - JACKSON HOLE Part 1Jackson Hole Symposium: What is the Jackson Hole Symposium? The Jackson Hole symposium (Economic Policy Symposium) is held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming USA. It is an event attended by the worlds top financial professionals including ministers, bankers and academics. It is a closed event so no press are allowed access to the meetings or talks. Instead, press conferences are held throughout the event where any comments from financial professionals usually move the markets and cause extreme volatility. This is not the usual analysis we provide. Instead, what we wanted to show you is the last 3-4yrs of market data illustrated on the charts, giving you an idea of what this event can do and cause on the markets. In this example, on Gold. So, lets start with last year, 2021. We can see the price was at a similar price point to where we are today, just slightly higher at around the 1780 level. The early sessions were quiet, however, after a retest of the low look at the aggressive move to the upside! Price started at 1780 and the move completed at 1836. 500+ pip move in a matter of days. Lets look at the top right chart, 2020. Again, look at the choppy price action, the whipsaw up and down, then the rested of the low before an aggressive move to the upside. Price started at 1904 and the move completed at 1994. 900pip movement in a matter of days. Now 2019, a slow start in the early sessions, all of a sudden, a rested on the low and then another aggressive move to the upside. Price started at 1491 and completed the move 1557. Over 500pip movement in a matter of days! What we’re trying to show you here is that its going to be a very difficult event to trade for new traders. Its going to be choppy, its going to be volatile, its going to whipsaw and its likely to move. If you’re caught the wrong side of it its going to kill your account. Best practice here is to let the market make the moves it wants to, wait for the price to settle in whatever level they want to drive it to, once this has happened then look for the setup to get in to the trade. Hope this helps. As always, trade safe. KOG
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by KnightsofGold
32
SPY Levels - CGG Newsletter 08/13-18/2023Upside: 448.06 → 448.92 → 450.48 → 451.70 → 453.07 Downside 443.97 → 442.97 → 441.98 → 441.08 → 439.46 Technical Analysis: Since making yearly lows in March, SPY has been in a larger uptrend channel, with its last higher high peaking in July. Since making this high SPY has made a downwards channel on the daily inside the larger upwards chanel, and looks to make a higher high soon on the green uptrend line. A great spot for it to bounce is coming soon. With any sign of weakness, SPY looks ready to fillthe samll gap it made from July 11-12, which should be filled at 442.97. Under this gap we have the long GP from 441.08-441.98 along with a strong daily level at 441.21. I would look to go long in this area. If we get a bounce we will look to see if we can break over last week's high of 451.70. If we can reclaim some bullish momentum, I would expect us to test the gap above (453.52-455.49), or at least get close as we have the SHORT GP from 453.29-453.81 we can target to the upside for bulls. Failure to hold above 441.21 changes my macro view, and I would flip bearish, but my general lean is bullish going into next thursday's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
AMEX:SPYLong
by peterjames_6
NQ Levels - CGG Newsletter (08/13/2023)Upside: 15172 → 15260 → 15333 → 15444 → 15582 Downside 14995 → 14947 → 14888 → 14810 → 14656 Technical Analysis: Similar to ES, NQ had a down week and closed right on its bullish trendline support tracing back to the lows made in March of this year. NQ had a much weaker close than ES, finishing down 0.69% in Friday's session. I am looking to see if NQ holds this trendline, where it is currently sitting at a Weekly level at 15098. The bearish price action set up somewhat of a falling wedge into the trendline support. Bullish momentum should see us hold the trendline. If the trendline does not hold, we could see a prime buying opportunity in the tech sector from 14888-14947. I would look to go long here and stay bullish until next thursday when the Jackson Hole Economic symposium starts.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by peterjames_6
Pound weak and isolatedThe threat on the long term chart is unpleasant for GBP, 1.15xx and 1.05xx have been set up. Just at the right moment, because BOE cannot now recapture the short-end of the rate curve with inflation still to reach his goal. To open things up, a simple test below 1.175x is all that is needed with Jackson to unlock the flow; a textbook swing ever since we saw restraint at 1.40xx. If 1.175x is taken then 1.15xx is next to account, leaving 1.05xx wide open for this to collapse like a house of cards. After 1.15xx, I suspect the helplessness of buyers will be quite touching. This swing position is technically very similar to the previous GBP waterfalls we traded together with Brexit, Elections etc, a classical momentum move. The prognosis for the Jackson flow seems quite good for sellers (not overwhelmingly so for those who are still sidelined). A test of the barricade at 1.19xx seems manageable, and where I am actively looking to add shorts, because for that the buyers would have been exhausted. Please note, invalidation only with closes above 1.20xx. A master plan! Let's see how our counter attack move plays out.
Short
by ridethepig
8
USDJPY: Dollar remains King!!USDJPY Intraday - We look to Buy at 137.55 (stop at 136.67) The primary trend remains bullish. We look for a temporary move lower. Support is located at 137.50 and should stem dips to this area. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 137.50, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 139.49 and 140.00 Resistance: 139.50 / 142.00 / 145.00 Support: 137.50 / 132.00 / 126.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a th ird-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Euro rises to parity as ECB hints at 75bp hikeEUR/USD has edged higher today and is trading at the parity line. In the North American sesssion, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0019, up 0.57%. The US dollar has posted sharp gains against the major currencies, as Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole left no doubt that the Fed will continue to tighten rates in its titanic battle with surging inflation. The euro, however, bucked the trend and posted strong gains on Friday but ultimately pared these gains, before moving higher once again today. The upward movement has been driven by hawkish comments at Jackson Hole from senior ECB members, including Isabel Schnabel, who is well-known for being a hawk. Shnabel said that the likelihood of high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations was "uncomfortably high" and argued that "central banks need to act forcefully". Latvian central bank Governor Martins Kazak was even more specific, stating that the ECB should be open to discussing 50 or 75 basis point moves. The ECB has raised rates but only to zero, well below the neutral rate of around 1.5%. This means that ECB policy continues to stimulate the economy, at a time when inflation and inflation expectations continue to move higher. The ECB will be hard-pressed to find the balance of raising rates without tipping the weak eurozone economy into a recession. Overshadowed by Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole was a host of weak US releases. Personal income and spending data both missed expectations, while the Core PCE Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 0.1% in July MoM, down from 0.6% in June and shy of the estimate of 0.3%. The weak numbers mean that the Fed may have to ease back on rate hikes, despite Powell's hawkish speech, as the data continue to indicate that the economy is slowing in response to the Fed's tightening. If upcoming releases indicate that the economy is losing steam, the dollar will be under pressure. EUR/USD has support at 0.9985 and 0.9880 There is resistance at 1.0068 and 1.0173
by OANDA