Get started

Jadelizard

Managing non directional option trades : #snap Making money even when Im wrong, only in options world is that a thing. Non directional trades try to capture premium from both bull and bear sides be on a range or sideways trend. Here I discuss managing non directional trades as time passes and future price moves reveal themselves. Eventually, this non directional trade became directional. But thats my choice and comfort based on risk reward of the current market. We have to price risks and choose our exposure. We dont control the market or outcomes. We control decisions and orders. good luck have fun be safe!
NYSE:SNAPEducation
by optionfarmers
OPENING (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 160/170/172 JADE LIZARD... for a 2.64/contract credit. Notes: A bet that TLT doesn't move much with no upside risk (the credit received exceeds the max risk of the two-wide short call vertical) and a downside break even of 157.36 (the short put strike minus the credit received). Additionally, even if it blows through the long call strike at 172, the credit received exceeds the max risk of the call side by .64, so I could still make money if that happens. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
2
OPENING: VIX SEPT 19TH 11/13/13.5/14.5 SYNTH JADE LIZARD... for a 1.02/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.02/contract Max Loss: .98/contract Break Even: 12.02 (no upside risk) Notes: Here's the synthetic jade lizard setup I posted about (see Post Below). Basically, the bet is that VIX stays around here and 14-ish for the duration of the trade. I'll look to take off the short put/short call/long call at 50% max and leave the long put to expire worthless (it's there to bring in buying power effect over going naked).
CBOE:VIXLong
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: VIX SEPT 19TH 11/13/13/14 SYNTHETIC BIG LIZARDPeople frequently ask under what circumstances I would long a volatility product and, if so, what product I would use. I generally shy away from long setups in instruments that experience either beta slippage or contango erosion such as VXX or UVXY since the vast majority of the time you're rowing against the contango tide -- a pop in volatility is required before contango eats away at the position and as we all know, volatility can remain lower for longer than we'd like. Consequently, my usual go-to for long volatility setups is in the VIX itself and not one of its derivatives and only then under a particular set of circumstances: (a) VIX spot is objectively low; and (b) VVIX (the index which describes the implied volatility of the VIX) or VIX implied volatility is also low. Currently, spot is at 12.86 and VIX implied is 92%. The 30-day low was at 11.44, the 2018 low was sub-10, and although that 92% would be considered high for other underlyings, it's in the 30th percentile of where it's been over the past 52 weeks for VIX, so it's pretty low here. I might wait for a little lower before pulling the trigger on this particular setup (making any strike adjustments necessary giving movement of the underlying), but this setup is representative of what I would use to play -- a synthetic big lizard with risk one to make one metrics. The standard big lizard is generally made up of an at-the-money short straddle, along with a long call where the credit received for the entire setup exceeds the width between the short straddle and the long call, resulting in no upside risk for the setup. Here, I've thrown on a cheap long put to bring in buying effect substantially over just having the short put hang naked out out there, resulting in the following metrics: Max Profit: 1.05/contract Max Loss: .95/contract Break Even: 11.95 (no upside risk) Theta: .06 Delta: 9.91 Since pops can be awfully fleeting, I would look to take this off at 50% max for just the short straddle and long call aspects (the long put frequently goes to worthless quickly, and its going no bid can put the kaibosh on getting filled at 50% max for all four legs of the setup). I'll naturally post a live trade should circumstances develop where I think it might be worthwhile to pull the trigger (low VIX + low VIX rank/implied).
CBOE:VIXLong
by NaughtyPines
10
Open EEM skewed IronCondor/capped lizard Mar16www.tradingview.com Caught my notice as one of many stocks that popped back to begin filling yesterday's gap. The longer term trend is up. Schaff Trend Cycle (bottom panel indicator - this is a modification of LazyBear's @LazyBear, customized line color for up/down direction and background color for Elder Ray EFI grn/red above below zero and dark green/red rising or falling) anyhow this shows cycle down from drop but background shows bounce and continuance of uptrend (to me). Options are liquid so little cost to getting in and out of the position. Cost: 78 credit/contract Max P/L 78/222 upside minimum 28 profit, no loss Spot when opened 51.11 IV rank percentile 99 Theta .44 Delta 15.9 POP: probability of making .01 or more on the trade 69% Profit target 25. The bet here is that EEM will continue to rise, that the high IV will collapse decreasing debit/increasing profit to close the position. If it does this quickly I will grab the money and remove the risk quickly. If it drifts up, Theta decay and price will improve the position. It has some room to drift down and minimum movement would keep it in the higher profit zone (between the short strikes). This is more of a directional trade with a defined max loss so if it goes against me quickly to max loss there will be nothing to lose in waiting for it to come back. If it charges down to breakeven I will review my sentiment and if I think it has whiplashed on me to reverse down again I may close it near scratch. So I posted the trade and now am "hung by the tongue" in that we will all see if this is profitable or not. Fun!
AMEX:EEMLong
by Tom1trader
TRADE IDEA: COST JULY 21ST 155/158/175/178 IRON CONDORAfter news of AMZN's acquisition of WFM, COST's implied volatility has popped here, with its implied volatility rank ramping up to the 67th percentile over the preceding 52-week period, and with background implied volatility at 21%, making a premium selling play potentially worthwhile. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract Break Evens: 157.07/175.93 Theta: 1.96 Delta: -2.47 As an undefined risk alternative, the July 21st 150/175 short strangle is going for 2.35 at the mid with a probability of profit of 71%, BE's at 155.65/177.35, theta 8.85, delta -3.91. Notes: Because I could potentially see this snapping back to the upside, you may want to skew the setup to the call side, narrow the call side spread to reduce call side risk, or otherwise put on a limited upside risk play (e.g., July 21st 160/173/175 Jade Lizard, 1.95 credit at the mid, BE's at 158.05/174.95). With the Jade Lizard, upside risk is limited to .05 (the width of the call side spread (2.00) minus the credit received (1.95) ... .
NASDAQ:COST
by NaughtyPines