IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance?IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance?
The trade balance is an important economic indicator that can have a significant influence on the stock markets.
Here is a simple explanation of this concept and its potential impact:
What is the trade balance?
The trade balance represents the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports over a given period.
In other words:
- If a country exports more than it imports, its trade balance is in surplus (positive).
- If a country imports more than it exports, its trade balance is in deficit (negative).
Impact on the stock markets
The influence of the trade balance on the stock markets can vary depending on whether it is in surplus or deficit:
Trade balance surplus
A trade surplus can generally have a positive impact on the stock markets:
- It indicates strong competitiveness of domestic companies in international markets.
- It can strengthen the value of the national currency, which can attract foreign investors.
-Exporting companies may see their shares increase in value.
Trade deficit
A trade deficit can have a negative impact on stock markets:
-It can indicate a weakness in the domestic economy or a loss of competitiveness.
-It can weaken the domestic currency, which can discourage foreign investors.
-The shares of companies dependent on imports may be negatively affected.
Important nuances
It is crucial to note that the impact of the trade balance on stock markets is not always direct or predictable:
-Overall economic context: Other economic factors can attenuate or amplify the effect of the trade balance.
-Investor perception: The reaction of the markets often depends on how investors interpret the trade balance figures in relation to their expectations.
-Specific sectors: Some sectors may be more affected than others by changes in the trade balance.
In conclusion, although the trade balance is an important indicator, its influence on stock markets must be seen in the broader context of the economy and investor sentiment.
Jamesharmonics
LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected.LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected.
The price could go down to the PRZ zone indicated on the right chart: 512 to start, then 388 if the Double top plays its role.
This will therefore be a very interesting entry point for investors.
Below: Some information about LVMH.
LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) is today the world leader in luxury and one of the largest French companies. Here’s a look at where LVMH stands today:
Recent Financial Performance
LVMH recently announced its third-quarter 2023 results, which missed analysts’ expectations
This announcement caused a significant drop in the stock price, which is down more than 20% from its record highs
Market Position
Despite these mixed results, LVMH remains the world’s largest luxury company, with a portfolio of iconic brands including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Givenchy, Kenzo, Moët & Chandon and many others
Structure and Values
LVMH is a family-owned group founded in 1987. Its primary mission is to ensure the long-term development of each of its houses, while preserving their identity and autonomy. The group emphasizes creativity, innovation and excellence in all its products and services. Corporate Strategy
LVMH's strategy is based on the vertical integration of its value chain, from raw material sourcing to selective distribution. This approach aims to ensure the excellence and sustainability of its products.
Social and Environmental Responsibility
LVMH is increasingly committed to ethical, social and environmental initiatives. The group places emphasis on adopting and promoting honest behavior in all its actions and relationships.
Future Outlook
Despite recent challenges, LVMH remains a solid company with long-term growth potential. , like any company in the luxury sector, it is sensitive to global economic fluctuations and changes in consumer habits.
BITCOIN: Double top possible + NAVARRO 200 bullish : Watch out!!BITCOIN: Double top possible: Watch out for 48,000 + NAVARRO 2000 bullish = 2 opposing patterns.
The Wolf of Zurich detected a possible double top on bitcoin
As expected, the 56,400 was reached perfectly thanks to my analysis.
The next levels are:
On the decline :
56,425 (again)
48,000
40,770
On the rise:
NAVAROO 200 bullish detected, and the price could reach $72,000 then $80,000
In addition, Be careful because there is a bullish divergence with the ROC!!
To watch the EMA 50 and 200, and the ICHIMOKU and Fibonacci levels
VIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possibleVIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possible
possibility of a harmonic figure "shark" and "bat" which would bring the price to the levels indicated on the chart.
In addition there is a divergence on the R.O.C and the RSI.
monitor the Fibonaccio and Ichimoku levels as well as the exponential moving averages 50 and 200
ETH: Bearish – BAT Detected + ROC DivergenceETH: Bearish – BAT Detected + ROC Divergence
The Wolf of Zurich detected a bearish “BAT” on Ethereum
We could therefore go up to around 3 270 3560
Then go back down to point C around the polarity zone of 1800-2035
The 50 and 200 exponential moving averages are still potential targets
In addition you will notice a divergence in the ROC between the price which is rising and the ROC which is flat
The ROC (Rate of change) gives you the speed of the asset's momentum.
Stay safe
NATURAL GAS: Bullish- SHARK + WOLFE WAVENATURAL GAS: Bullish- SHARK + WOLFE WAVE
So, regarding gas the Wolf of Zurich detected a "Shark" and a "Wolf Wave" in Daily.
The market could rise violently.
There is a strong divergence on the ROC
Attention!!
The 50 and 200 exponential moving averages are potential targets
There
stay careful
TSM : Bullish - "falling Wedge" and a "BAT" potential.TSMC detection of a "falling Wedge" and a "BAT" potential.
The price could rise and reach the gap upwards towards 147.25 then higher at 156.11
On the downside the market could go down to 135.92 then to 128.76 and finally to 125.27
Additionally, the RSI is divergent with the stock price §
be attentive and monitor the Ichimoku levels
US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle
Ascending triangle detected on US10Y
The exponential moving averages remain possible targets
Monitor Ichimoku levels
The ROC ( Rate of Change) is in a positif territory.
Bonds can rise to a double top
Stay careful
Good trades to all
AXA: Bearish -DEEP CRAB detected.AXA: Lower-DEEP CRAB detected.
(1)
In Weekly:
A DEEP CRAB -Bearish was detected on AXA and was confirmed. Following this bearish harmonic pattern, a new BEARISH trend can potentially begin.
(2)
ROC and RSI: Note the Bearish divergence building up like dark clouds announcing a potential reversal on the horizon.
(3)
Detection of a SELL signal using ROC and RSI indicators;
Following this, I expect the market to move down to the 33.63 level, then 30.55, and finally towards the 29.49 and 25.84 levels, depending on the 50 and 200 EMAs.
BTC: Bearish - GARTLEY detected in WeeklyBTC: Bearish - GARTLEY detected in Weekly
The Wolf of Zurich has detected a "GARTLEY" and more precisely a "Harold McKinley GARLEY"!
Bitcoin could rise to $49,625 then fall back to $36,600 at the “nearest” level
and at the “lowest” around $18,900
PRZ zone lies between $19,000 and $36,300
The 50 exponential moving average "in Weekly" is around $33,900
The 200 exponential moving average is around $36,815 daily
There is therefore a high probability of going down to $36,800
Then Bitcoin could rebound after the “Halving” to $100,000 in the long term!
Happy trading to all
be careful
SOLANA: Bearish- 2 GARTLEY detectedSOLANA: Bearish- 2 GARTLEY detected
Hello everyone
Today on Solana the wolf of Zurich detected 2 GARTLEY: the first is bearish (the red) hence the current decline!
The 2nd GARTLEY is bullish so we could look for the exponential moving average 200 around 67.33
The PRZ zone is located from 68.50
Stop Loss below “X”, depending on your currency management
EUR/USD: Bullish - BAT + Cup with handleEUR/USD: Bullish - BAT + Cup with handle
According to the harmonic figures (D/W):
Bearish BAT detected!
the price could go down to 1.07033 / 1.05263 / 1.01124
On the Chartist level:
We are Bullish because in fact, the Wolf of Zurich has detected a cup with a handle or a cup of coffee.
The price could break the polarity zone around 1.12 and reach 1.25649.
The ROC is in divergence territory! And if it enters positive territory, the price can explode higher.
Monitor exponential moving means 50 and 200 in Monthly!!
Indeed, the 200 exponential moving average is around €1.16465.
According to ICHIMOKU (Weeekly):
A return to 1.05153 is possible
Be careful.
Happy trading to all
Crude Oil Wti: Bullish -GARTLEY possibleCrude Oil Wti: Bullish -GARTLEY possible
This possible Gartley would raise the price of oil to $85-93-109-116 as shown on my chart!
On the downside - we could go down to 77-70 -67 -61$
To monitor :
-exponential moving averages
-as well as the Ichimoku and Fibonacci levels
Warning: We are currently at 27.2 Fibonacci, and we could go back to 38.2 then 50% Fibonacci
Add to that the geopolitical tensions with Russia, France and Europe...
be careful because the Roc is in positive territory in Weekly
good trade everyone
LVMH: Bearish according ICHIMOKU 714 is possibleLVMH is on a polarity zone
the price could go down to 714
confirmation with “Tenkan” (Weekly) and “Kijun” (Daily) thanks to ICHIMOKU
Then the market could go down to €685 (Doji), then rebound and go back up to find the gaps above
or 2nd scenario:
the market could rise and seek to increase the gap of 854
and complete the harmonic figure “BAT”
and go back down to the 714
an options strategy "purchase of PUT" is possible slightly on this position or wait for the gap of 854
BOEING: Bearish - Possible SHARK detectedBOEING: Bearish - Possible SHARK detected
Boeing shares risk falling following an accident which left 50 people injured Monday in Australia during a flight from Sydney to Auckland, after a technical problem on a Boeing 787.
Technically, a SHARK is possible and the bullish channel breakout has been made.
And a PRZ around $140 may be possible.
monitor the 50 and 200 Moving Averages.
According to ICHIMOKU, a return to $221 is possible
EUR/USD: Possible Symmetric TriangleEUR/USD: Possible Symmetric Triangle
monitor the triangle breakout
as well as the EMA50 and 200 and Fibonacci levels
Gold has exploded and this could push the EUR/USD price higher.
Bitcoin could also play a role in market developments.
In monthly, we could look for 1.15
Be careful!
PLS : Australian Lithium: Bullish: GARTLEY detectedPLS: Australian Lithium.
Let me remind you that Australia is the leading producer of Lithium in the world (50% of global extraction).
This “white gold” is mainly used in the manufacture of batteries for smartphones and electric vehicles (TESLA, Mercedes, etc.).
LAC lithium prices are currently very low! This is therefore a strong buying opportunity.
KERING: Bullish-BUTTERFLY detected and Ichimoku:Rebound possibleKERING: Bullish-BUTTERFLY detected and Ichimoku: Rebound possible?!
concerning kering a Butterfly was detected by the wolf of Zurich
+Divergence ROC (Rate Of Change)
the share price can rise to 452 then 507 according to Ichimoku
the price could reach 461 "daily" then 515
and finally the €613 “in Weekly”
"Monthly" the share price could rise around 542 and 573 then 614 stay cautious
NASDAQ: Bearish - Ascending Wedge + ROC DivergenceNASDAQ: Bearish - Ascending Wedge + ROC Divergence
Ascending Wedge Detected on the Nasdaq
The trend is bullish, but there is a big divergence with the ROC (Rate Of Change) which gives you the speed of the Momentum of the asset.
A break of the bearish trend line of the ascending wedge would cause the Nasdaq to fall around 17158 - the support zone detected by the Wolf of Zurich is between 16160 and 15675
Monitor the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages
Be careful and happy trading everyone.
SP 500 (H1): Bearish – ROC Divergence + Gaps + IchimokuSP 500 (H1): Bearish – ROC Divergence + Gaps + Ichimoku
A divergence in 1 hour was detected by Le Loup de Zurich
In addition, the gaps are playable on a potential drop around 4839 then 4547
The 50 and 200 exponential moving averages are potential targets, and we could go down to around 4899 to start
According to Ichimoku the market could also go down to 4809 and even to 4670,
Stay safe
DAX (M15): Bearish -DEEP CRAB detectedDAX (M15): Bearish -DEEP CRAB detected
The price could reach 17 145 according to Fibonacci retracements, before falling to 16 875, then 16 690
American PMIs could influence this movement
Monitor the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages
A BUY put strategy on MARCH or JUNE is possible
stay careful