Will we repeat Jan 2020 - Apr 2021? I copied Jan 2020 - Apr 2021 and overlapped it starting Jan 2023.. minus the Covid drop, I could see us following similar path but more drawn out.
January
USDJPY - WEEKLY ANALYSIS - 20.01.24 Price took buyside LIQ on the weekly TF
create a 4HR bear ob
Sell to buy
sell 175 pip
buy possibe 500+ pips from Weekly GZ.
USDJPY - DAILY - WEKELY ANALYSIS - 20.01.24Price took buyside LIQ on the weekly TF
create a 4HR bear ob
Sell to buy
sell 175 pip
buy possibe 500+ pips from Weekly GZ.
USDJPY 4HR Weekly Analysis Price took buyside LIQ on the weekly TF
create a 4HR bear ob
Sell to buy
sell 175 pip
buy possibe 500+ pips from Weekly GZ.
HSI ForecastThe current status is uncertain, and there are two possibilities:
1. If it is the 2nd wave of an upward trend, the HSI (Hang Seng Index) will rebound in the short term and surpass 16500. The level of 16500 will be tested multiple times, which would be the most favorable situation for the HSI.
2. If it is the 5th wave of a downturn, the HSI will break the 15400 level and drop even further, below 14470, previous bottom, and towards 13000.
In 2024, I expect the HSI to fluctuate between 15300 and 17100 until the market gains a clearer understanding of China's economic performance.
At the beginning of 2024, in the very short term, the trend is likely to decline further. I anticipate that the HSI will test a near-term new low at 15300. However, after the 1st quarter, it could benefit from a lower Federal Reserve interest rate. Nevertheless, the strength of the rebound may not be very strong due to the prevailing uncertainty in the market. We can target the rebound to 16500 or max 17000.
Disclaimer
Please understand the forecasting will be subjected to many factors and this is the vision at this moment. This comment is not encouraging you to follow or make any investment decision. You will be the only one be responsible for your investment decision and any related behavior. I am not going to bear any legal or non-legal responsibility.
🟨 UPDATE 4: Whaley Breadth SignPostThis is update 4 for the Signpost after the Whaley Breadth idea post in Feb'23
If you remember The Whaley Breadth Trust is a powerful signal that has a great success rate. It was invented by Wayne Whaley in 2009. Since 1970 to 2009, the signal has occured only 12 times!
Based on the Whaley Breadth Post and January Trifecta we drew a potential map for the next 3, 6 and 12 months.
For my followers, I even made a special indicator for the Whaley Breadth here:
UPDATING:
We have had a strong rally up since our last update in May28. This has brought us very close to our signposts, but of course some of the deadlines have been missed. This is to say that we are moving in the right direction as per the historical indications but slower than the averages that I have used.
Make sure you check my previous posts about the Whaley Thrust as how they are developing.
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - 1M, January, 2023.Analysis of the volatility index in January. Time interval - 1 month.
Currency - USDT or equivalent to BUSD .
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (January):
1. APT /usdt - 385.47% (High&Low: 492.62%)
2. GALA /usdt - 225.15% (High&Low: 279.59%)
3. DYDX /usdt - 192.20% (High&Low: 223.39%)
4. FTM /usdt - 168.43% (High&Low: 178.64%)
5. MANA /usdt - 152.24% (High&Low: 177.25%)
6. HOOK /usdt - 147.93% (High&Low: 224.29%)
7. INJ /usdt - 146.51% (High&Low: 156.86%)
8. GMT /usdt - 140.10% (High&Low: 199.74%)
9. SOL /usdt - 139.92% (High&Low: 171.61%)
10. OP /usdt - 135.95% (High&Low: 179.30%)
11. DAR /usdt - 132.99% (High&Low: 186.10%)
12. LDO /usdt - 130.50% (High&Low: 198.22%)
13. ONE /usdt - 125.57% (High&Low: 136.76%)
14. AUDIO /usdt - 115.81% (High&Low: 186.62%)
15. OCEAN /usdt - 113.59% (High&Low: 147.80%)
The coin showed the worst result: CTK /usdt - 8.20% (High&Low: 23.92%).
Full list of analyzed coins: www.tradingview.com
Analysis information for all coins: docs.google.com
Thanks for your attention!
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - 1D, January, 2023.Analysis of the volatility index in January. Time interval - 1 day.
Currency - USDT or equivalent to BUSD .
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (1 day):
1. APT /usdt - 249.29% (High&Low: 532.39%)
2. GALA /usdt - 242.33% (High&Low: 533.62%)
3. HOOK /usdt - 231.75% (High&Low: 543.74%)
4. LDO /usdt - 215.16% (High&Low: 524.31%)
5. GMT /usdt - 201.68% (High&Low: 421.13%)
6. DYDX /usdt - 200.32% (High&Low: 413.62%)
7. ANC /busd - 199.74% (High&Low: 467.76%)
8. SOL /usdt - 186.13% (High&Low: 363.33%)
9. OP /usdt - 178.49% (High&Low: 414.12%)
10. FTM /usdt - 176.37% (High&Low: 331.13%)
11. PHB /busd - 170.30% (High&Low: 471.12%)
12. MANA /usdt - 161.58% (High&Low: 352.77%)
13. AUDIO /usdt - 157.92% (High&Low: 364.08%)
14. AXS /usdt - 155.57% (High&Low: 330.32%)
15. OCEAN /usdt - 155.21% (High&Low: 406.22%)
The coin showed the worst result: BTC /usdt - 52.13% (High&Low: 106.50%).
Full list of analyzed coins: www.tradingview.com
Analysis information for all coins: docs.google.com
Thanks for your attention!
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - 1h, January, 2023.Analysis of the volatility index in January. Time interval - 1 hour.
Currency - USDT or equivalent to BUSD .
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (1 hour):
1. HOOK /usdt - 1156.19% (High&Low: 2458.48%)
2. ANC /busd - 990.89% (High&Low: 2184.49%)
3. LDO /usdt - 966.14% (High&Low: 2083.05%)
4. GALA /usdt - 957.66% (High&Low: 2052.71%)
5. PHB /busd - 946.5% (High&Low: 2085.62%)
6. APT /usdt - 907.17% (High&Low: 2101.18%)
7. OP /usdt - 799.48% (High&Low: 1760.77%)
8. OCEAN /usdt - 795.33% (High&Low: 1719.13%)
9. GMT /usdt - 789.94% (High&Low: 1695.64%)
10. DYDX /usdt - 747.58% (High&Low: 1612.22%)
11. LUNA /usdt - 712.64% (High&Low: 1519.07%)
12. HNT /busd - 702.37% (High&Low: 1544.36%)
13. FTM /usdt - 689.97% (High&Low: 1485.82%)
14. AUDIO /usdt - 686.29% (High&Low: 1438.73%)
15. MASK /usdt - 678.93% (High&Low: 1494.87%)
The coin showed the worst result: BTC /usdt - 204.1% (High&Low: 465.11%).
Full list of analyzed coins: www.tradingview.com
Analysis information for all coins: docs.google.com
Thanks for your attention!
❌ UPDATE 3: Whaley Breadth SignPostThis is update 3 for the SignPost after the Whaley Breadth Post.
If you remember The Whaley Breadth Trust is a powerful signal that has a great success rate. It was invented by Wayne Whaley in 2009. Since 1970 to 2009, the signal has occured only 12 times!
Based on the Whaley Breadth Post and January Trifecta we drew a potential map for the next 3, 6 and 12 months.
For my followers, I even made a special indicator for the Whaley Breadth here:
UPDATING we see that the SPX failed to follow the map on both the pullback and the expected 3 month gain. However, we also see that there is more tightening action than anticipated, rather than complete capitulation. The second pullback measures about -6.2% rather than the anticipated -5.5%. But rather than appreciating to +12% the SPX appreciated only +6%.
I would conclude that the current Whaley Breadth SignPost has failed on two accounts. Will continue to watch its development but so far it is not performing as expected.
AUDJPY GEARING TO FLYAUDJPY has hit a key support area and I'm currently waiting don it to retest to buy up. I had my first area of buy but it did dip regarding retest so two entries are shown.
🟨 January - Massive BULLISH SignJANUARY HAS A PROVEN PREDICTIVE POWER FOR THE END OF THE YEAR
WHY THIS MATTERS
This indicator has been 90% correct since 1950. It is used on the SP500.
BY THE NUMBERS
The January Trifecta (def below) has occured 31 years since 1950. 28 of them we have followed with positive year for SP
Average gain during January Trifecta is +17%
If January Barometer closes above 5% (CURRENTLY +6% for month), average gain is 17.5%
If you are coming from a negative previous year (like we have 2022) and we get the January Trifecta the average gain is 28.9%
Down year follwed by January Trifecta has happened 10 times since 1950. Look them up: 1954, 1958, 1961, 1963, 1971, 195, 1995, 2012, 2019, 2023
THE DEFINITIONS
Santa Clause Rally - last 5 days oof Dec + 2d Jan
January "First Five Days" - the total move for the first 5 trading days of Jan
January Barometer - the total move of the Jan Mov
January Trifecta - Positive signs from Santa Clause Rally, First Five Days and the Barometer
GBPUSD daily forecastIts Friday the 13th but that does not affect us as our skill is how we trade and no external forces can ever affect us.
January EffectHello guys! Have you ever heard of the "January effect"? It's a pattern that has been observed in financial markets where the prices of small cap stocks tend to go up in the month of January. Some people think this happens because of tax-loss selling (when investors sell stocks that aren't doing well in order to reduce their tax burden) or because more people are interested in buying small cap stocks at the start of a new year. It's important to remember that the January effect isn't a sure thing and shouldn't be the only reason you make investment decisions.
What do you think about this effect?
S&P500 - Outlook - 2023 - 1st Week of January - 4 Hour ChartS&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023 on the 4 hour chart.
Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January.
1) Always have your stop loss in place.
2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering.
3) Always be open to being wrong, and exit when the market is not heading in the anticipated direction.
S&P500 - Outlook - 2023 - 1st Week of January - 4 Hour ChartS&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023 on the 4 hour chart.
Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January.
1) Always have your stop loss in place.
2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering.
3) Always be open to being wrong, and exit when the market is not heading in the anticipated direction.
S&P500 - Outlook - 2023 - 1st week of JanuaryS&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023.
Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January.
1) Always have your stop loss in place.
2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering.
3) Always be open to being wrong, and exit when the market is not heading in the anticipated direction.
S&P500 - Outlook - 2023 - 1st Week of JanuaryS&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023.
Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January.
1) Always have your stop loss in place.
2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering.
3) Always be open to being wrong, and exit when the market is not heading in the anticipated direction.
🟨 January effect - SPX vs RUTWHAT IT IS
Since 1988 the Russell 2000 has outperfomed the SPX 73.5% of the time during the end of December into 1st of January.
Classical David vs Goliath. Read more below👇
THE DETAILS
Testing from 1988 to 2021 the period of 15th Dec through to 1st Jan, we see that Russell 2000 has outperformed the SPX 25 out of all 34 years.
This is a win rate of 73.5% . Moreover, the times the Russel outperforms the SPX were greatly oversized when the Russell underperforms. Gains in the years of outperfmrance are 5 times bigger. Totals outperformance vs Total underperformance is (42.80% vs -7.81%).
And there was only 1 year (1988) when there was a loss larger than 1%. The last few years we have not been so consistent but it is worth the consideration.
126.5 Million XRP Sent to Ripple's ODL Bitso and Some Major ExchInvestors have made several hefty transactions between their wallets, moving almost 130 million of Ripple-affiliated XRP tokens to major digital exchanges, according to Whale Alert.
126.5 million XRP on the move
The aforementioned cryptocurrency tracker has tweeted that in the last 15 hours, an astounding amount of XRP tokens has been shoveled by crypto whales as they moved their XRP mostly from Bittrex to Bitstamp, Bitso and so on.
Whale Alert spotted five transactions, carrying a comprised $105,840,893 worth of XRP—126.5 million tokens. These funds were shifted in lumps of 13,601,064; 30,000,000; 40,000,000; 22,300,000 and 20,260,426 XRP.
Related
AAVE Surges 12% Within 9 Days with High Participation of Whales: Details
From that amount, 70 million were sent from the U.S.-based Bittrex platform to Bitso and Bitstamp. The latter has already resumed XRP trading after suspending it in January 2021 after the SEC started a legal action against Ripple and its two highest-ranking executives, Chris Larsen and Bradley Garlinghouse.
Bitso also shifted 22,300,000, moving it between its own wallets. This Mexico-based cryptocurrency unicorn received an undisclosed investment from Ripple Labs in the fall 2019 and is one of the ODL corridors now, along with Bitstamp.
Ethereum Price Analysis $1MEthereum is forming a very bullish structure on the daily chart. The second-largest cryptocurrency has made a robust weekly green candle as well.
As discussed in the March 17th analysis, confirmation of the reversal of the downtrend would be considered after the price crosses above the static level at $3300. Looking at the weekly candlestick at the end of January, we see that the price fell again despite the 25% surge, and February was all downhill. Technically, by forming a higher high and crossing above the static level at $3300, which is the intersection of many resistances, we can consider a trend reversal with more confidence.
RSI-14: Crossing the downtrend line and moving in the bullish area
Resistances levels: $3,000 and $3,300
Supports levels: $2700 and $2500
Gold Up 7%, Bitcoin Down 25%The decline has challenged earlier notions of Bitcoin being a viable gold alternative, considering its decentralized nature and general detachment from the broader financial space. These aspects of the currency were widely lauded during Bitcoin’s stellar rally last year, where it surged to nearly $70,000.
But while the rally was indeed steep, a large portion of it was backed by institutional interest in the token. The influx of big investment houses has seen Bitcoin behave more like conventional markets, specifically, stocks.
Losses in Bitcoin this year have mirrored those in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which is down about 22%.
Gold the preferred inflation hedge?
Fears of rising inflation had also seen markets tout Bitcoin as a potential inflation hedge, ie, returns on the currency would be consistently above annual inflation rates.
But with the token trading down for the year, such a notion seems rendered moot. Gold on the other hand, is trading close to the level of annual inflation in the U.S.- which had surged by 7.5% in January. The reading had rattled crypto markets earlier in February, while supporting gold.
Bitcoin’s recent sensitivity to inflation also makes it averse to rising interest rates. A bulk of the token’s decline this year has been driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has planned a rate hike in March.
