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$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
JAPAN 225 INDEX Bullish Projection CHART Technical Analysis of Japan 225 Index (4H Chart) Overview: The Japan 225 index, as depicted on the 4-hour chart, is currently navigating through a complex pattern with multiple trend lines and Fibonacci retracement levels in play. RSI signaling bullish technically, within zone of "overvalued." This is in alignment with both Trends and Horizontal Support along with multiple other indicators. Also to note, it is falling towards the 200 EMA, it is about to close a gap on a pattern that has broken out bullish, which aligns with a major trend and horizontal support area, which then takes us to the next trendline, which is a bearish trend trading in a bullish direction. Essentially, this is a really important zone. Price either breaks downward, and likely closes another gap showing in yellow on the chart OR price hits support and we really start to see an upward climb. This movement would be similar to how the SP500 is melting up towards the 6500 range. Here's a detailed analysis: Trend Analysis: Support Trend Line: The price is holding above a key ascending support trend line, which has been in place for several months. This trend line acts as a bullish indicator, suggesting that the index has been in an uptrend. Descending Resistance Line: There is a descending resistance trend line that the price is approaching. A breakout above this line could signal a continuation of the uptrend and potentially lead to higher targets. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 38.2% Retracement: The price is currently testing this level around 39,015.11. This is a common retracement level where price often finds support or resistance. 50% Retracement: Located at 38,015.11, this level could act as a strong support if the price breaks below the 38.2% level. 61.8% Retracement: Around 37,015.11, this is a critical level where a deeper pullback might find support before a potential reversal. Volume Analysis: Volume Indicators: There is a noticeable increase in volume at key support and resistance levels, indicating strong buying or selling interest. The recent volume spike suggests significant market activity, which could precede a major move. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD Line and Signal Line: The MACD line is above the signal line, which is typically a bullish sign. However, the histogram shows decreasing momentum, which might indicate a potential slowdown or reversal in the current trend. Price Targets: Upside Targets: If the price breaks above the descending resistance trend line, the next resistance levels to watch are around 39,015.11 (38.2% Fibonacci), followed by 40,015.11 and 41,015.11. Downside Targets: A break below the ascending support trend line could see the price retesting the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, around 38,015.11 and 37,015.11, respectively. Conclusion: The Japan 225 index is at a critical juncture, with multiple technical indicators suggesting both potential continuation of the uptrend and possible consolidation or pullback. Traders should watch for a breakout above the descending resistance or a breakdown below the ascending support for clearer directional cues. Monitoring volume and MACD for confirmation of these moves will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
TVC:NI225Long
by nicktussing77
jasmy (JASMY) "INDICATIONS"The BBTrend indicator reveals whether the price is overbought or oversold. Red is too low "oversold" and green is too high "overbought." In this case Jasmy is quite neutral on that fact. The Yellow stepped line is the 100 Moving Average. When the 100 MA is smoothing out and rounding over this is a sign of the price reversing. As you can see the steps are large and there is no smoothing happening. Also with my 2x100 indicator the waves run between the two lines like a MACD with the 100MA line on top for positive growth and when the smooth green line crosses over the stepped line this is a sign of a reversal as well. As you can see the recent price increase is therefore sturdy based on these two indications.
COINBASE:JASMYUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
1
USD/JPY:Yen Recovers as Interventions and Geopolitical Tensions The Japanese Yen has gained some ground against the U.S. Dollar, leading the USD/JPY pair to settle at 154.30 on Friday. This recovery is fueled by speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the domestic currency. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions are providing further backing for the safe-haven JPY. Though the Yen is finding support, a slight decline in the U.S. Dollar is also helping to limit the upward movement of the currency pair. As noted in our previous discussion, the Dollar Index (DXY) appeared poised for a retracement. However, at the time of writing, the USD has managed to regain some strength against the JPY, trading around 154.72. Analysis from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report suggests a potential reversal in the market's direction. Furthermore, historical seasonality trends indicate a possible shift toward bearish conditions, reflecting patterns observed over the last decade. This raises the possibility of continued bearish momentum for the USD/JPY pair moving forward. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/JPY Confirmation of trend reversalHi guys, today we are starting up with the currency pair of EUR / JPY , which had a significant drop today, with a follow up with a few bad economical data shown by the biggest economy in Europe : Germany, additionally the additional tensions generated from Israel earlier , ended up pushing the value of the yen up, hence the fact that it is still one of the looked after safe heaven currencies. Currently the EUR/JPY has reached a break of structure which it should revitalise and cover in the upcoming days.Additionally we see the lower levels of the Fibonacci and a total level of the RSI sitting currently at the level of 35 making it quite oversold. Entry level at 160.500 with the following targets : Target one : 161.053 Target two :161.767 Will update additionally when the targets have been achieved!
Long
by DG55Capital
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications -The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.3% in October 2024 from 2.5% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since January. Electricity prices saw the smallest increase in six months (4.0% vs 15.2% in September), as the effects of the energy subsidy removal in May diminished. Also, gas prices rose more slowly (3.5% vs 7.7%). In addition, costs slowed for furniture and household utensils (4.4% vs. 4.8%) and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Moreover, prices dropped further for communication (-3.5% vs -2.6%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, prices edged higher for food (3.5% vs 3.4%) and housing (0.8% vs. 0.7%). Meanwhile, transport prices jumped (0.5% vs. 0.1%) amid faster rises in cost of clothing (2.8% vs 2.6%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 0.9%). The core inflation rate hit a six-month low of 2.3%, down from September's 2.4% but above estimates of 2.2%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.4%, a reversal from a 0.3% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
TradeCityPro | NIKKEI 225 Market Trends and Key Levels👋 Welcome to the TradeCityPro channel! Today, we’ll analyze the NIKKEI 225, the stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, identifying key entry and exit points. 🌏 Overview of NIKKEI 225’s Recent Movements Recently, the NIKKEI 225 has experienced volatility due to: Concerns over tech stocks - Yen appreciation. - Possible interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan , Declines in major stocks like SoftBank and Tokyo Electron have contributed to recent drops. On the other hand, indices like the Hang Seng in Asia have performed better, supported by positive news about stock buybacks, highlighting contrasting trends in regional markets. 🕒 Weekly Timeframe Analysis The primary trend remains bullish but shows weakness due to rejections near the key resistance at 41,185. However, the formation of a higher low indicates weak sellers and supports a longer-term bullish outlook. As long as the price stays above the curve line and critical support at 33,903, the bullish trend remains intact , Breaking 41,185 would confirm a new primary uptrend. 📆 Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily chart, a rejection from the 40,104 resistance has led the price to consolidate within the range of 37,367 to 40,104. This rejection has formed a Double Top pattern, a bearish structure. Target for this pattern: After breaking 37,367, the price may drop towards 35,152. ⏱ 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis The price is currently in a range box, resting on critical daily support. If this support at 37,747 breaks with selling pressure, a move towards 36,677 is likely. 💥 Short Trigger: Confirmed break below daily support at 37,747 , Alternatively, a rejection from the trendline could also trigger a short position. 📈 Long Trigger: If the price finds support and moves upward, breakouts above the trendline and the trigger level at 38,466 can confirm a long position. 📝 Final Thoughts NIKKEI 225 remains in a pivotal zone, with key supports and resistances guiding potential moves. Ensure proper risk management and monitor price action at critical levels for optimal trade entries. This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
SPREADEX:NIKKEI
by tradecitypro
5
6J1!: Yen Strengthens Ahead of Ueda's InsightsThe Japanese Yen (6J1!) has been demonstrating notable strength against its American counterpart throughout the Asian trading session, as traders position themselves ahead of a highly anticipated appearance by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo later today. His remarks on the economic outlook, inflation dynamics, and the timeline for potential interest rate hikes will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing the trajectory of the Yen. As we approach Ueda's address, there is a palpable sense of anticipation in the markets. Investors are keen to understand how the BoJ plans to navigate the current economic landscape, particularly in light of growing inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties. With the central bank grappling with the balancing act of stimulating growth while containing inflation, Governor Ueda's insights will be closely scrutinized for clues on the BoJ's monetary policy direction. Nonetheless, there remains an undercurrent of uncertainty regarding the prospect of further policy tightening by the BoJ. This hesitation among traders may hinder the aggressive positioning of JPY bulls, leading to more cautious trading behavior as they await clearer signals from the central bank. The market's apprehension is evident, as many participants remain wary of overcommitting until Ueda provides more clarity on the BoJ's stance. From a technical analysis perspective, the rebound in the Yen’s price has been particularly notable, as it has entered what we identify as a demand zone. This area indicates a clear oversold condition, which suggests that the currency may be primed for a reversal. The fact that retail traders are significantly short on the Yen adds another layer of intrigue; if the anticipated bullish movement occurs, these short positions could lead to a rapid shift in market dynamics. Our forecasting models indicate that, when looking back over the last ten years, there is a strong possibility for the Yen to enter a bullish phase soon. Historical patterns suggest that, following periods of significant oversold conditions, the Yen has often embarked on upward price movements. As such, the current environment may present a unique opportunity for those looking to capitalize on potential appreciation of the currency. As we await Ueda’s comments, all eyes will be on how his insights might either reinforce or challenge the current market sentiments surrounding the Yen. Any indications of a future tightening of monetary policy could catalyze a swift rally, while ambiguity could lead to heightened volatility. Ultimately, the interplay between investor sentiment, technical signals, and central bank communication will determine the Yen's trajectory in the hours and days ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about YEN in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
The Anime Market, A Booming Industry with Exciting Prospects​The global anime industry is growing at an incredible pace, evolving from a niche entertainment form to a global phenomenon. Valued at around USD 31.23 billion in 2023, the anime market is expected to grow by 9.8% annually from 2024 to 2030. By 2025 and 2026, the industry is set to reach even greater heights, driven by several key trends. Anime has become a favourite worldwide, boasting a fanbase of over 800 million people. This popularity has been boosted by streaming platforms like Netflix and Crunchyroll, which bring anime to international audiences with ease. These platforms not only make it simpler for people to enjoy anime but also help new shows gain fans globally at the same time, creating a connected community of enthusiasts. One of anime’s strengths is its variety of stories, from thrilling action to heartfelt drama, appealing to all age groups and cultures. This flexibility allows anime to attract a wide audience and keep them engaged. Moreover, anime-inspired trends in fashion and media have brought this art form closer to mainstream culture, making it more popular than ever. More Than Just Entertainment The anime market isn’t only about shows and movies—it also fuels massive sales of merchandise like toys, clothing, and posters. Anime conventions have become big events, bringing fans together and boosting local economies. Collaborations with well-known brands have also expanded anime’s reach, proving its strong cultural and commercial value. Advancements in technology are making anime better and more accessible. Animation techniques are improving, and virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are starting to give fans immersive experiences. In the future, artificial intelligence (AI) could further enhance production, helping creators bring even more imaginative stories to life. BloomZ Inc.: Ready to Ride the Wave Among the companies poised to benefit from this growth is BloomZ Inc. (NASDAQ: BLMZ), a Japanese firm specialising in voiceovers for anime and games. BloomZ has announced plans to dive deeper into the anime market by producing its own shows. With its expertise in voice acting and sound production, the company is well-positioned to create high-quality anime content for a global audience. This move not only aligns with the industry’s growth but also places BloomZ as a key player in the market’s future. Looking Ahead The anime market is set to thrive in the coming years, thanks to its universal appeal, technological innovation, and growing fanbase. Companies like BloomZ Inc. are stepping up to play an important role in shaping this exciting industry. As anime continues to capture hearts worldwide, the opportunities for growth seem endless.
NASDAQ:BLMZLong
by HASHInvests200
NASDAQ: SBC, Empowering the Growth of Aesthetic MedicalSBC Medical Group Holdings (NASDAQ: SBC) is making waves in the aesthetic medicine industry with its dynamic growth strategy and robust franchise model. Analysts at Zacks have set a target price of $15.40, reflecting confidence in SBC's ability to scale its operations and expand internationally. With a current share price of $6.80 (as of November 2024), the company presents a compelling case for investors seeking growth in an underpenetrated market. Dominance in Japan’s Growing Market SBC operates the largest network of franchised clinics in Japan, with 220 locations under various brands, capturing an estimated 31% market share. Despite its leadership, the Japanese aesthetic medicine market remains relatively untapped, with just 10% penetration. The company treated 3.9 million patients in 2023, a 26% increase from 2021, highlighting the growing demand driven by social media and demographic trends. Comprehensive Solutions and Strong Financials SBC's franchisees benefit from a comprehensive suite of services, including administrative support, marketing, procurement, and technology integration. These offerings enable clinics to focus on high-quality, affordable patient care while expanding their service portfolios. The company’s financial performance reflects its growth momentum, with revenue reaching $193 million in 2023, up 10% year-over-year. A 5-year revenue CAGR of 24% underscores the scalability of its model, supported by a strong EBITDA margin of 42.5% and a robust cash position of $103.7 million. Global Expansion Strategy SBC’s international operations in Vietnam and California signal the early stages of a broader global strategy. The clinics cater to rising demand for popular treatments like liposuction and eyelid surgery, aligning with global trends in non-invasive and surgical procedures. With the global aesthetic medicine market projected to grow from $59.8 billion in 2024 to $81.7 billion by 2032, SBC is well-positioned to capture a significant share. Outlook and Investor Potential The $15.40 target price reflects optimism about SBC’s continued network expansion and revenue growth. While challenges like foreign exchange risks and competitive pressures persist, the company’s innovative approach and financial discipline mitigate these risks. SBC Medical Group stands out as a growth-oriented player in a burgeoning industry. With its proven franchise model and strategic vision, the company offers investors an attractive opportunity to tap into the expanding global aesthetic medicine market.
NASDAQ:SBCLong
by HASHInvests200
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rates (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 0.25% October/2024 source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its October meeting, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and matching market estimates. Thursday's decision came amid shifting political lansdscape following Japan's election and ahead of the US presidential election. In a quarterly outlook, the BoJ held its forecast that core inflation to reach 2.5% in FY 2024, with inflation expected to be around 1.9% for both FY 2025 and FY 2026. Regarding the GDP, the central bank retained its 2024 growth forecast at 0.6%. Additionally, it forecasts growth of 1.1% for FY 2025 and 1.0% for FY 2026.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USD/JPY:Bank of Japan's Steady Rates and U.S. GDP Data to Shape The Bank of Japan (BoJ) concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday by keeping its short-term interest rate target steady at 0.25%. This decision, while in line with market expectations, sets the stage for potential market volatility, as other global economic indicators could weigh heavily on USD/JPY movement in the coming days. From a technical perspective, price action analysis reveals a notable reversal candle on the daily timeframe, aligning with a pre-identified supply area. This reversal is further supported by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are largely bullish, while “smart money” or institutional investors appear to be shifting their positions to the bearish side. Seasonal patterns also suggest a possible start of a new bearish trend, adding weight to the likelihood of downward movement. In addition, today’s U.S. Advance GDP data could amplify movements if it underperforms expectations, adding pressure on the USD and further supporting a bearish outlook for the USD/JPY pair. A disappointing GDP print could, therefore, accelerate a drop in the USD, setting up the pair for a potential shift in trend. Traders and analysts alike will be closely monitoring these developments, as Japan’s steady rates, combined with potential U.S. economic softness, set the tone for potential volatility in the days ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
Japanese Equities Rebound Post Election ShocksJapan’s October 28 elections delivered a surprise to the market with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s loss of the majority in the parliament. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba now faces the challenge of securing a majority in the 465-member Diet, Japan’s national legislature, in the coming weeks. This political uncertainty has impacted the outlook for Japanese equities. Typically, such instability would weaken the equity market; however, a combination of a depreciating Yen and a "buy the news" rebound after two weeks of decline has led to a market recovery, with the Nikkei-225 rising 3.7% since the election results were announced. This environment presents tactical opportunities for savvy investors, such as leveraging spreads between the concentrated large-cap stocks in the Nikkei-225 and the broader Japanese equity market through the AMEX:DFJ ETF. Political Uncertainty a Concern for the Nikkei-225 Japan's October 28 election resulted in no party securing a majority, with the LDP and Komeito losing 64 seats, leading to a hung parliament. This uncertainty has raised concerns over the Nikkei-225, as the lack of a stable government could hinder decisive economic policy. Historically, political instability tends to undermine investor confidence in Japanese equities, and analysts are now concerned about the ability of a weakened government to implement coherent economic policy. Following the result, the Yen dropped to a three-month low of 153.88 per dollar, reflecting investor nervousness. The Nikkei-225 rallied 3.7%, driven by a weaker Yen benefiting exporters like Toyota and Nissan. Analysts expect continued market volatility until a stable coalition is formed, with specific concerns around delayed fiscal measures and economic reforms that could weigh on investor confidence. PM Ishiba’s Hawkish Tone Likely to be Tempered Even in Case of Victory Shigeru Ishiba, recently appointed as Prime Minister, has expressed his intention to remain in office, despite facing a challenging re-election campaign after the disappointing outcome of his snap election. Analysts like David Roche from Quantum Strategy and Masahika Loo from State Street suggest his re-election prospects are slim. PM Ishiba has historically supported the Bank of Japan's rate hike strategy and voiced concerns over yen depreciation. However, in light of the election results, his party may need to adopt a more populist stance to retain support, embracing dovish monetary policies and increased social spending. Additionally, PM Ishiba has pledged to introduce a larger stimulus plan in response to the election outcome. This expanded stimulus could conflict with the BoJ’s monetary policy goals, likely prolonging yen weakness. Weaker Yen Supports Nikkei-225 The weaker yen has been a key driver in Nikkei-225's recent stellar performance. A depreciating yen makes Japanese exports more competitive, directly benefiting major exporters such as Toyota and Nissan, which saw gains of over 4% on 28/Oct (Mon). Mint Finance previously highlighted the inverse relationship between the Yen and the Nikkei-225. Recently, however, this correlation has broken, with both the Nikkei-225 and the Yen declining over the past two weeks. Although post-election performance has brought a modest recovery in this relationship, fundamental concerns persist. With the Bank of Japan holding rates steady, the Yen is expected to weaken further. The outlook for the Nikkei-225 is less clear, as it benefits from a weaker Yen yet faces pressures from ongoing political uncertainty. Key Technical Levels Nikkei-225 is trading just above its long-term moving averages which have acted as support after being tested multiple times over the past few months. With the Nikkei-225 in a rising channel and above a support level, price may have some upside. However, the R1 pivot level at 40,525 may act as resistance as it previously has. Nikkei-225 is currently in a price range dominated by buyers over the past month. Overall volume activity shows buyers have remained dominant according to the accumulation/distribution indicator. In case Nikkei-225 breaks out from this range, it is likely to see increased selling. This could lead to a period of consolidation at present levels, especially given the political uncertainty. Hypothetical Trade Setup Tailwinds from the weakening Yen intertwine with headwinds from the political uncertainty for Nikkei-225. Until clarity on economic outlook arises, the Nikkei-225 is likely to remain volatile. Due to the recent diverging performance, the effectiveness of a Yen hedge on the Nikkei-225 has decreased. While the Yen may continue to weaken, it is not likely to have a proportional impact on strengthening the Nikkei-225. However, a weakening Yen also favours large cap stocks that comprise the Nikkei-225 relative to smaller companies such as those comprising the WisdomTree Japan Smallcap Fund ETF (DFJ), which provides broad exposure to Japan equities. DFJ is geared towards small cap firms and excludes the 300 largest companies by market cap. It also caps the maximum weightage of any single sector to 25% ensuring that the index is not impacted by any single sector. By comparison, the Nikkei-225 index is a price weighted index which tilts its exposure towards expensive stocks, especially those from large companies. It also provides exposure to the technology sector in Japan which has outperformed recently due to the burgeoning chip industry. Mint Finance covered the breakdown of the index in a previous paper . The spread between the Nikkei-225 and DFJ ETF has continued to rise over the past two years alongside the Japanese equity rally, though there have been periods of consolidation in between which small caps have managed to to catch up. The peaks in the ratio have been at times when the Nikkei-225 reached a new all-time-high while periods of consolidation following the peak have favoured the small cap equities. This view benefits investors in case the Nikkei-225 retests its all-time-high in the near future. It also benefits from the fundamental drivers that favour the firms comprising the Nikkei-225 compared to the ETF. Investors can express a view by buiding a long position in Nikkei-225 using CME Group futures and a short position in DFJ ETF. Nikkei-225 Futures on CME are available in a dollar denominated form, which negates currency impact from the weakening Yen. For example, a long position in CME Group Nikkei-225 futures provides exposure to a notional value of USD 197,900 (USD 5 x 39,580 index price as of 30/Oct). This would require an extremely large position on the ETF leg to balance out the notional. Alternatively, investors can utilize the newly launched Micro Nikkei (USD) futures which are 1/10th the size of the standard Nikkei 225 futures contract with a notional value of USD 19,790 (USD 0.5 x 39,580). Micro Nikkei (USD) futures are geared towards smaller notional sizes which allows for granular hedging and spreads as well as enhanced capital efficiency. Since their launch on October 28, the contracts have experienced rapid growth and adoption. Over the past two days, 1,370 Micro Nikkei (USD) contracts and 4,141 Micro Nikkei (JPY) contracts have been traded. The contracts also shows a tight bid-ask spread and a liquid market, supporting capital-efficient trading. The following hypothetical trade setup consists of long 1 x Micro Nikkei (USD) futures expiring in December and short 265 shares of WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Fund with a reward to risk ratio of 1.33x. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:NKD1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen. Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little chance of a rate cuts when the Fed meets on November 6, just a day after the U.S. election. Another key factor in the dollar’s rise is what’s being called the “Trump Trade” — a bet on Donald Trump's potential re-election. Should Trump secure victory and the Republicans retain control of Congress, his policies are expected to drive up the U.S. deficit and reignite inflation.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY: Japan’s Snap Election Opportunities Japan is holding a snap election this Sunday, triggered by a scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), despite a general election not being due until late 2025. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for all but four of the last 65 years, has seen its popularity plummet. In June, its poll numbers hit their lowest point this century. While some polls predict the party could cling to its majority, bolstered by a fragmented opposition, fresh data from the Nikkei suggests a different outcome. The business daily warns that the LDP may fall short of securing a majority, a result that could lead to political upheaval not seen since 2009. Pullbacks in USD/JPY have been lessening since early October, and after clearing the 150.00 mark, the next targets for the bulls may be the 200-Day Moving Average and the range between 150.90 and 151.10. Amid a snap election, 152.00 is also a possible target. If the pair experiences another pullback, traders might consider a mid-point of current price action as a potential resistance level.
by BlackBull_Markets
NKD: Japan Beyond Carry TradeCME: Nikkei 225 USD Futures ( CME:NKD1! ) Tokyo: The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported last Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan increased 2.5% in September year-on-year, down from 3.0% in August. The CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.4%, down from 2.8%, during the same period. The core inflation measure, which excludes both fresh food and energy costs, rose slightly to 2.1% in September from 2.0% in August. Service prices, considered a crucial indicator by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), gained 1.3% year-on-year, slowing from 1.4% in August. To counter the recent economic slowdown, the Japanese Government rolled out subsidies on electricity and gas prices. These fiscal measures were a major contributor to the cooling inflation, estimated to have shaved 0.55% off the annual inflation rate. The BOJ is widely anticipated to maintain its interest rate at 0.25% during its upcoming policy meeting on October 31st. Despite the dip in inflation, BOJ has signaled that further rate hikes may still be on the table if inflation continues to align with its projections. However, policymakers are cautious following criticism of their July rate hike, which triggered a market downturn. As the US Federal Reserve will have its rate-setting FOMC meeting on November 7th, the all-important interest rate spread between the US and Japan could continue to narrow: • With the Fed Funds at 4.75%-5.00% and the Japanese Interest Rate at 0.25%, the US-Japan interest rate spread is currently at 450 basis points (our calculation takes the lower bound from the US policy rate range) • According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, as of October 20th, the futures market expects a 99.3% chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in November. If that happens and the BOJ maintains its current rate, the spread will narrow to 425 bps • If the Fed pushes for a supersized 50bp cut again, same as they did in the last meeting, the interest rate spread could further shrink to 400 bps • Over the course of the next 2-3 years, I expect the Fed to normalize interest rates to 3% or below, to a level not restrictive to economic activity. Meanwhile, the BOJ could maintain the 0.25% rate throughout this period. If that is the case, the US-Japan rate differential could further move towards the 200-250bp range, in my opinion Carry Trade May be a thing of the Past Two years ago, I published a market commentary, “Land of Rising Sun and Falling Yen” on November 7, 2022, and received TradingView Editors’ Picks. In that writing, I discussed Carry Trade, a wildly popular FX strategy. In a nutshell, a trader would borrow Japanese Yen with ultra-low interest rate, exchange the fund into Australian Dollar or US Dollar and earn a higher return. At the end of the investment horizon, the trade would exchange the proceed back to Yen and pay back the loan. The differential between the investing interest rate and loan rate would be the return from this strategy. With 50x to 100x leverage common in FX trade, carry trade could be hugely profitable. Carry trade carries two significant risks. The first is the appreciating yen. The trader may need more dollars to exchange back to yen and pay back the loan. The loss from exchange rate changes could eat up all the interest earning profit. In the last writing, I commented that Yen at 150 may have bottomed out, and explored the idea to take cover for carry trade. Over the following two months, the Yen sharply rose 15% to 127. A trade that earned 3% in interest would have been wiped out completely and may incur huge losses if executed with high leverage. In the present time, we are observing the second risk, a shrinking interest rate spread. Carry trades may have 400-bp interest spread in 2023 and could see the spread narrowing to 200 bps in the next two years. With central banks around the world cutting interest rates, and volatility of exchange rates on the rise, this is probably not a good time for carry trade. The Japanese Stock Market on Focus While the currency play may be out, the Japanese stock market could offer both a good return and diversification for an investor’s portfolio. The Nikkei 225 index is the main stock market index for Japan. At 39,290, its year-to-date return is 17.9% as of last Friday. It is lower than the 22.7% YTD return for S&P 500. However, Nikkei was initially up 27.6% in July. When the BOJ raised rates, the Japanese stock market entered a huge correction, wiping out all the gain. Since then, the Nikkei popped up about 17% in the past six weeks. Japan is the world’s third largest economy with GDP of $4.2 trillion in 2023. Comparing to the other large nations, Japan is more intertwined with the rest of the world. We would explore two trading strategies based on Japan’s unique economic fundamentals. The first aspect: Japan has an export-oriented economy. Its top 3 trading partners are • China: exports were $153 billion in 2021, accounting for 21% of the total ($728 billion) • United States: $137 billion, 19% of the total • The European Union: $97 billion, a 13% share These top 3 partners contribute to 53% of Japan’s exports of goods and services. In essence, economic growth in its trading partners will result in more demand for “Made-in-Japan”, while economic slowdown could spill over to Japan. In my opinion, there is more tail wind than head wind on the way. The US is already in a rate-cutting cycle. Its economy has been resilient during the high-rate environment. The economic health would continue to improve with lower cost of capital. I would also point out that Japan’s export data did not tell the whole story. Most Japanese cars are now made in the US. The data does not show up on Japan’s GDP, but is included in the profit of Toyota, Honda and Nissan. Many of the Japanese car makers are component companies in the Nikkei 225 index. China is implementing massive economic stimulus. Hundreds of business-supportive new rules and trillions of yuan are putting in the economy. I expect China to revive in Q4 and in 2025, which would lead to higher demand for Japanese goods. To summarize, I consider the Nikkei 225 has room to grow. A long position in CME Group’s Nikkei 225 Futures could be deployed to express this view. The second aspect: Japan is a net importer of natural resources • Japan, ranked fifth-highest consumer of oil in the world, relied on imports to meet 97% of its demand in 2022. Japan imports crude oil primarily from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Russia. In 2022, Japan’s crude oil imports increased to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from 2.3 million b/d in 2021. Not only does Japan depend on foreign oil, but it also sources crude oil from regions with heightened geopolitical tensions. If the conflicts in the Middle East escalate further, crude oil production and/or shipping routes could be interrupted. The chart below shows an inverted relationship between Nikkei 225 and WTI crude oil price trends. This suggests that a spread trade could be constructed. For most of 2024, Nikkei moved up as crude oil trended down, except for the BOJ rate hike disrupting the trend. If geopolitical crisis escalated, oil prices could soar while the Nikkei would tank. For someone holding this view, a long position on WTI Crude Oil futures ( NYSE:CL ) and a short position on CME Nikkei futures ($NKD) could be deployed to express such a view. Introducing CME Micro Nikkei USD Futures On October 28th, CME Group will be launching a USD-denominated and Yen-denominated Micro Nikkei futures. The new contract has a notional value of $0.50 times the Nikkei index. At Friday closing price of 39,150, each contract would be worth $19,575. The Micro contract is 1/10th the size of the standard Nikkei futures ($NKD). It will provide a new way to access broad-market Japanese index exposure with greater trading precision and lower capital commitment required. The timing of the new contract launch is critical. It is a week before the US presidential election (November 5th) and ten days before the next FOMC meeting (November 7th). Let’s watch this space to explore the trading opportunities presented by the standard Nikkei futures and Micro Nikkei futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:NKD1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Strong Fund Flow Observed - HeartCore Enterprise Inc.Daily Chart of HeartCore Enterprise Inc. (BUY) Following the robust guidance from HTCR projecting revenue growth between $17 million and $19 million, alongside a significant increase in net income to between $9 million and $11 million, a notable inflow of funds was observed last Friday. This projected growth—representing increases of approximately 263% in revenue and 305% in net income—has captured investor attention, driven largely by HTCR's strong performance in its software business in Japan and its "Go IPO" initiative, which features around 12 companies poised for public offerings. From a technical analysis perspective, HTCR has successfully broken through key resistance levels at $0.98 and $1.00, with the $1.00 level now serving as a support. A golden cross was also observed on the 20/50 moving averages, indicating a bullish trend, which is further corroborated by the strong fund inflows represented by red and pink bars on the chart. Given these promising developments, we maintain a BUY rating on HTCR.
NASDAQ:HTCRLong
by HASHInvests200