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Japan

CNHJPY - SHORT; This pair is ready to fall off a cliff!Considering China's (ongoing!!) predicament caused by an oncoming, abject, demographic (urban, industrial) collapse, the obvious consequence is a stand-alone Japan's as the region's only remaining super power" ... Making this Short a no-brainer, probably well over a decade and a half. The Long Term Price Target on this pair is: 10! (I.e. a >50% Decline ..., ... provided that there will be still such a thing as a convertible (off-shore) Yuan, further down the road - which, in itself, is very unlikely!)
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
Nikkei dips continue to attract buyers.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 27205 (stop at 27110) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 27480 and 27820 Resistance: 27400 / 27820 / 28505 Support: 27060 / 26720 / 26235 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225YJPYLong
by OANDA
EUR/JPY - SHORT; Geopolitics matters - Center stage.Given the inevitability of; 1) An abject Chinese population collapse - already under way -, necessitating the consequent *** massive DEurbanization, DEindustrialization *** (leaving in its wake ~800 million subsistence "gardeners" - No, not even farms, in the traditional sense of scale!); 2) Japan having *** the only other (beside the US) long range Navy *** capable to protect shipping/supply lines, anywhere on the globe; (While China couldn't defend it's own coast line, if push came to shove. All that The "Chinese Menace" propaganda is laughable, at best. China is already dead, it just hasn't rolled over, yet, fully.) 3) The EU's obvious, ongoing Hara Kiri (the kind that would fill every samurai with envy), the demise of the Euro is a foregone conclusion. (How long for total EU disintegration?? ... A) Most likely measured in a couple years; B) It is well under way!. 4) Germany's full and unmitigated retreat from a collapsed Chinese market - the US filling the vacuum in every imaginable corner on the globe; 5) Japan being *** the only other (alongside Taiwan, S. Korea and the US) precision manufacturer of high-technology, of any scale ***; 6) ... ... 12) ... There are at least a dozen existential reasons - already well within grasp! - all of which will leave Japan likely the only industrial power standing in Asia, while Germany (as is the whole of Europe) will be forced to backtrack to the '60s. - Not to the 1960s, no ... to the 1860s! The technicals are also favorable to start shorting this pair from here, ... on and on ... onto forever. p.s. The rise of France in Europe and Japan's in Asia - relative to their current industrial and geopolitical pull- is all but a foregone conclusion. France being the "youngest" industrial and agricultural power in the EU while Japan, having survived - so far - their own demographic apocalypse, will have ring side seats to revel in the total and abject Chinese collapse. Germany also "only" lacks any and all domestic energy or food resources (except Sauerkraut), while also beset with a demographic apocalypse that is about to hit its full stride.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
Google vs Apple; How Android will kill Apple.Fact; - Apple (iPhone, etc.) is entirely (100%) sourced from China; - Google (Android) is 100% sourced from S. Korea & Japan. 1) Considering the abject population collapse - and massive DE-industralization!! - of China, it will take YEARS for Apple to relocate it's entire supply chain. (To N. America?) E.g. Apple will be lucky to bring out a new iPhone every other year - even that being overly optimistic. 2) Barring an outright armed conflict between S. Korea and Japan (very unlikely) Google's supply chain should be just fine, mostly unaffected by the coming Chinese de-urbanization and de-industrialization. (... which China will be forced to endure in order to feed the *** 800 million Chinese ***, which is what will be left in that country, by 2035.) When will this purported Chinese population collapse and total de-industrialization begin?? ... You are in it! (It is well worth to pay attention to it because it will (continue to) be spectacular!!) Simultaneously, the technical picture is also very favorable for the upside, in this spread.
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by Nemo_Confidat
2
SHORT the Land of the Rising BanksSince the Bank of Japan shocked global markets in December ‘22 by widening the Yield Curve Control trading band on 10Y JGB yields from 0.25% → 0.5%, TOPIX Banks have been on a one-way surge upward. TSE:T17B index rallied +7% on the day of the policy meeting, and +25% within days thereafter. The three Japanese mega banks Mitsubishi UFG (TSE:8306, NYSE:MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (TSE:8316, NYSE:8316), and Mizuho Financial Group (TSE:8411, NYSE:MFG) are hitting half-decade highs - but this is nonetheless a broad-based and nearly indiscriminate rally within the overall sector, as smaller regional banks participate in the upside. The fundamental reason for the rally is simply due to the Bank of Japan steepening the previously (and still) pancake-flat yield curve by lifting the ceiling on 10Y yields, while leaving their front-end policy rate at -0.1%. A steeper JGB yield curve “means” more favorable Net Interest Margins (NIM) for these lenders. There have been all sorts of analyst estimates and calculations of just how much of a positive boost to earnings this will be - and perhaps this will indeed come to fruition. However, the long end of the JGB curve suddenly and sharply rising can be a double-edged samurai sword- while banks may benefit from higher NIM, they are also taking massive unrealized marked-to-market losses on those very JGB holdings. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has kept firm on YCC at their latest January policy meeting. Furthermore, they have been targeting much of their JGB buying (ex the 10Y) at the 2Y ~ 5Y tenors, and JGB 2Y and 5Y yields have been cut in half from recent peaks as a result. TOPIX Banks index, especially Mizuho shares, have been closely correlated to the 5Y JGB yield - particularly since the December 2022 BOJ surprise rally. Yet, while these banks shares’ rallies have paused, they have not followed 5Y JGB yields downward. The BOJ has (for now) put a halt on an ever-rising / steepening JGB curve- giving banks +25bps (and falling as of this writing) “extra” on the long end for their NIM spread. Also with BOJ policy, there is still a negative policy rate imposed upon these banks. Earnings for these banks are coming up next week, starting at the beginning of February. There is a LOT of assumed lofty upside of NIM currently priced into these shares. If they don’t at least MEET these expectations (and according to Bloomberg articles, it seems the executives of the big three are less excited than markets are of earnings upside), swift profit taking can ensue. If they not only fail to meet lofty expectations, but instead report major unrealized losses on their JGB holdings (after taking huge losses on their foreign bond holdings throughout 2022), swift profit taking can ensue. If swift profit taking ensues, (other/additional) swift profit taking can ensue. Japan - “land of the rising yields” is now in reversal - with a major dislocation in the otherwise historically lockstep bank shares vs JGB yields. A fundamental reality check from earnings may be what it takes to whack shares back into place. Note - this is obviously not trading advice - and as I always repeat in my videos: If you listen to me, you will lose all your money. If you use me as a reverse indicator, you will still somehow lose all your money. And the reason is very simple: I am a very stupid person, and these are very stupid thoughts. Clear? So, with that said, here’s what I have been doing (and again, if you wish to apply any of it, please do so if you hate money). I had been long MUFG since Dec BOJ Meeting to ride the momentum, and closed out my long on Mon Jan 16th (day before Jan BOJ) for a +21% return in something like 15 trading days - and closed out the trade on the thesis of “no change for Jan BOJ meeting” - which then came to fruition, and MUFG fell -5% thereafter. I am using my gains (“house money”) and am now long puts on these banks with post earnings expiry. Of the three mega banks, I hate Mizuho Financial Group (TSE:8411, NYSE:MFG) the most. And I am FAR from any sort of financial analyst - I am basing this on the JGB 5Y correlation, as well as Mizuho ATM machines having eaten my ATM card TWICE ← prob little to do with stock price action.
TSE:T17BShort
by acrossthespread
USA vs Japan- Everything is in chart. - Again an easy short, same as i predicted UK Bounce few weeks ago. - This is not a scalp but a Medium/Long term trade. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trading Parts : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short Zone : Now 149-150 ish TP1 : 127-126 ish TP2 : 116-117 ish SL : 165 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - You climb to reach the summit, but once there, you discover that all roads lead down. Happy Tr4Ding !
Short
by thecryer
4
ridethepig | JPY for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - JPY for the Yearly Close Of course, the breakout here can be bought after so much consolidation but it takes time. Buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Japanese fiscal and monetary policy is easy enough to map. Even more than that Kuroda and Suga are well seasoned, the logical link here is for USDJPY lower as a safe-haven flow but my models are picking up on it dislocated from the rest of the board on a capital flow basis. We managed to clear the 2020 targets very early and it will be a pleasure to review: ...we have to be interested in how the crowd can be wrong and how they are being led into the wilderness. Japan understood clearly the issue from the centre, unlike the West which have attempted to use monetary policy to cure private debt problems with issuing more private debt. They have breathed this mantra since 1991, in this sense and others they are miles ahead of the West and had a few decades to get to work on it with fiscal policy. We will go into the macro details in the coming days after the round of G10, EM, Commodities, Equities and Yields maps are updated. Then we can open the discussions for all to join in with the macro charts before we go into the short-term possibilities and build the shop for 2021 and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
Nikkei to find support at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 26030 (stop at 25770) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. We look to buy dips. Our profit targets will be 26780 and 27060 Resistance: 26720 / 27060 / 27400 Support: 26235 / 25615 / 24830 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by OANDA
BOJ surprise may create wild yen swing The Bank of Japan is wrapping up its two-day policy meeting today, and the decision it announces at the conclusion could have huge ramification for Japanese markets and the yen. There is currently intense speculation that the bank may shift from its current path of ultra-loose policy, or at least offer some guidance concerning future moves. Let's look at the technical situation of the USD/JPY to see what possible move lies ahead. The trend for USD/JPY has now switched to a downtrend after last year’s bullish run up. The price is also well below the 200-EMA period, which may imply that we are now in a long-term downtrend. Although, support appears to be building around 127.80. This may be because the market is not entirely sure that the BOJ will signal any change in policy today and risk rocking the economic boat again, like it did after its last meeting. The Smart Money Concepts Indicator shows a ‘Break Of Structure’ or BOS, which is marked in the chart, indicating that the support at 127.80 may have been a lower low. The bullish move may also be considered a retest to the BOS and may reject this area. With the current downtrend for the USD/JPY in mind, the traders may like to look for a break and close below 126.70, which is strong support for the USD/JPY to continue moving down. Depending on the BOJ announcement, price targets from 124.00 to 121.50 could come into play. However, a ‘Change of Character’ or CHoCH signal coming from the SMC indicator might result from a dovish BOJ press conference. The CHoCH should be printed on the chart first before considering a trend switch to the upside. The marked-up supply zone by the SMC indicator can be used as a target point if one is considering a buy once we get a rejection at around 126.70.
by BlackBull_Markets
Selling Nikkei into current swing highs.K225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 26635 (stop at 26855) Buying pressure from 25931 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 26015 and 25795 Resistance: 26435 / 26830 / 27150 Support: 25795 / 25060 / 24120 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:NIKKEI225Short
by VantageMarkets
Buying Nikkei at previous support.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 27510 (stop at 27290) Selling pressure from 28166 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. The medium term bias remains bullish. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 28030 and 28460 Resistance: 28460 / 29235 / 30220 Support: 27425 / 26700 / 26470 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by OANDA
Is the Santa Claus rally real?As we approach Christmas, for yet another year, we wonder if Santa is real, or rather if the Santa Claus Rally is real. Some hypotheses about the Santa Claus rally include the lowered Institutional liquidity as traders go on holiday (just like us, soon!). That leaves the retail crowd, proven to be bullish on just about anything, pushing markets higher. There have been many studies on this effect on the US markets with results ranging from slightly better than a coinflip chance to none at all. We thought to experiment with this idea and look at the same effect but on another market instead. With the massive benefit of hindsight, a simple, buy the Nikkei 225 in the middle of December and sell at the high/low before March comes around strategy, giving a win rate of 70% and an average win return of 10.3%, while the average loss was -11.3%. Interesting, but nothing much better than a coin toss with some variance. Now as a Trader, we always try to position ourselves in highly expected value situations and find a unique edge where others might not look. In this instance, how we can re-position ourselves is perhaps by looking at the spread between the US Index against the Japanese Index, before trying to identify the seasonal factor (Santa Claus Rally). But before we go further, it’s often good to think about how or why this trade might just work out: 1) Holiday impact – generally the Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, hence it is likely that more will be on holiday in the US during this season. 2) Diverging monetary policies - The Bank of Japan remains one of the last central banks which stick to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) even as inflation creeps higher. While the US Federal Reserve has led the world with its ultra-hawkish stance, raising its policy rates in a steadfast manner. The differences in monetary policies could nurture different directions for equities in respective markets, namely hawkish or tight conditions for the US vs dovish easing condition for the Japanese market. 3) Difference in accounting/Financial years – Differing accounting practices and book closure dates mean flows will differ for each market as institutional traders prepare to close their positions for their financial year. 4) Investors trying to front-run the January effect, where investors re-establish their positions after tax loss harvesting in December. These factors combined drive the Japanese and US markets differently, especially over this, year-end, holiday season. On to specifics, one way to look at the spread between the US and Japanese market could be to use the S&P500 Futures and Nikkei 225 Futures as proxy for the individual markets. Adjusting each Futures contract by the point value, $50 USD x S&P 500 Index point for the S&P500 Futures and $5 USD x Nikkei Stock Average for the Nikkei 225 Futures allows us to compare the two on a contract value/dollar for dollar basis. Applying the same, buy in the middle of December and sell before March strategy, gives a similar 60% win rate, but the average win now returns 71.4% while the average loss is -18.3%. A very rough back of the napkin expected value calculation gives this strategy a rough 35% expected return while the strategy on the Nikkei 225 alone returns roughly 4%. While one could try this strategy, we intend to provide a starting point to reflect on how we could creatively pair products to extract more value out of decades-old strategy. For example, on CME the listed Japanese Index Futures suite alone consists of products, such as the Dollar & Yen denominated Nikkei 225 (NIY/NKD) and Topix (TPY/TPD), all of which could be used to form variants of the above strategy. Something to think about as we head into the holiday season and prepare ourselves for an even better trading year ahead. And just like that, we are on our last piece for the year. We will be taking the rest of the year off and back in January with more! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.jstor.org www.fool.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:ES1!
by inspirante
15
EUR/JPY- Ready for a breakdown?On March 7th, EUR/JPY made a low print of 124.40. Since then, the pair has been moving higher in an ascending wedge formation. On October 21st, the pair attempted to breakout above the top trendline of the pattern, reaching an intraday high of 148.40. However, Japan’s Ministry of Finance stepped in and intervened in the fx markets by buying Yen. That was the last time EUR/JPY touched the top trendline of the pattern. As is often the case, when price fails to break out of one side of a pattern, it moves to test the opposite trendline of the pattern. The expectation for an ascending wedge is that price will break lower as it nears the apex. The target for a breakdown from an ascending wedge is a 100% retracement, or 124.40 in this case. On December 2nd, EUR/JPY pierced through the bottom trendline, reaching its lowest level since early October at 140.77. On December 5th, the pair moved back into the ascending wedge, closing at 143.38. Will the bottom trendline hold or Is EUR/JPY finally ready to breakdown? If price breaks below Friday’s low at 140.77, it could be off to the races. First support is at the 200 Day Moving Average near 139.20. Other support levels ahead of the target are at 137.38, then 133.41. However, if the pair continues higher within the wedge, the top trendline of the pattern crosses near 149.20. If price reaches this level, one must use proper risk management as Japan may intervene in the market once again.
by FOREXcom
Nikkei to fakeout?NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 28455 (stop at 28650) We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. Previous resistance located at 28339. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27895 and 27515 Resistance: 28425 / 29240 / 30175 Support: 27925 / 27515 / 27110 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:JAPAN225CFDShort
by Saxo