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Is the Santa Claus rally real?As we approach Christmas, for yet another year, we wonder if Santa is real, or rather if the Santa Claus Rally is real. Some hypotheses about the Santa Claus rally include the lowered Institutional liquidity as traders go on holiday (just like us, soon!). That leaves the retail crowd, proven to be bullish on just about anything, pushing markets higher. There have been many studies on this effect on the US markets with results ranging from slightly better than a coinflip chance to none at all. We thought to experiment with this idea and look at the same effect but on another market instead. With the massive benefit of hindsight, a simple, buy the Nikkei 225 in the middle of December and sell at the high/low before March comes around strategy, giving a win rate of 70% and an average win return of 10.3%, while the average loss was -11.3%. Interesting, but nothing much better than a coin toss with some variance. Now as a Trader, we always try to position ourselves in highly expected value situations and find a unique edge where others might not look. In this instance, how we can re-position ourselves is perhaps by looking at the spread between the US Index against the Japanese Index, before trying to identify the seasonal factor (Santa Claus Rally). But before we go further, it’s often good to think about how or why this trade might just work out: 1) Holiday impact – generally the Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, hence it is likely that more will be on holiday in the US during this season. 2) Diverging monetary policies - The Bank of Japan remains one of the last central banks which stick to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) even as inflation creeps higher. While the US Federal Reserve has led the world with its ultra-hawkish stance, raising its policy rates in a steadfast manner. The differences in monetary policies could nurture different directions for equities in respective markets, namely hawkish or tight conditions for the US vs dovish easing condition for the Japanese market. 3) Difference in accounting/Financial years – Differing accounting practices and book closure dates mean flows will differ for each market as institutional traders prepare to close their positions for their financial year. 4) Investors trying to front-run the January effect, where investors re-establish their positions after tax loss harvesting in December. These factors combined drive the Japanese and US markets differently, especially over this, year-end, holiday season. On to specifics, one way to look at the spread between the US and Japanese market could be to use the S&P500 Futures and Nikkei 225 Futures as proxy for the individual markets. Adjusting each Futures contract by the point value, $50 USD x S&P 500 Index point for the S&P500 Futures and $5 USD x Nikkei Stock Average for the Nikkei 225 Futures allows us to compare the two on a contract value/dollar for dollar basis. Applying the same, buy in the middle of December and sell before March strategy, gives a similar 60% win rate, but the average win now returns 71.4% while the average loss is -18.3%. A very rough back of the napkin expected value calculation gives this strategy a rough 35% expected return while the strategy on the Nikkei 225 alone returns roughly 4%. While one could try this strategy, we intend to provide a starting point to reflect on how we could creatively pair products to extract more value out of decades-old strategy. For example, on CME the listed Japanese Index Futures suite alone consists of products, such as the Dollar & Yen denominated Nikkei 225 (NIY/NKD) and Topix (TPY/TPD), all of which could be used to form variants of the above strategy. Something to think about as we head into the holiday season and prepare ourselves for an even better trading year ahead. And just like that, we are on our last piece for the year. We will be taking the rest of the year off and back in January with more! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.jstor.org www.fool.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:ES1!
by inspirante
15
EUR/JPY- Ready for a breakdown?On March 7th, EUR/JPY made a low print of 124.40. Since then, the pair has been moving higher in an ascending wedge formation. On October 21st, the pair attempted to breakout above the top trendline of the pattern, reaching an intraday high of 148.40. However, Japan’s Ministry of Finance stepped in and intervened in the fx markets by buying Yen. That was the last time EUR/JPY touched the top trendline of the pattern. As is often the case, when price fails to break out of one side of a pattern, it moves to test the opposite trendline of the pattern. The expectation for an ascending wedge is that price will break lower as it nears the apex. The target for a breakdown from an ascending wedge is a 100% retracement, or 124.40 in this case. On December 2nd, EUR/JPY pierced through the bottom trendline, reaching its lowest level since early October at 140.77. On December 5th, the pair moved back into the ascending wedge, closing at 143.38. Will the bottom trendline hold or Is EUR/JPY finally ready to breakdown? If price breaks below Friday’s low at 140.77, it could be off to the races. First support is at the 200 Day Moving Average near 139.20. Other support levels ahead of the target are at 137.38, then 133.41. However, if the pair continues higher within the wedge, the top trendline of the pattern crosses near 149.20. If price reaches this level, one must use proper risk management as Japan may intervene in the market once again.
by FOREXcom
Nikkei to fakeout?NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 28455 (stop at 28650) We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. Previous resistance located at 28339. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27895 and 27515 Resistance: 28425 / 29240 / 30175 Support: 27925 / 27515 / 27110 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:JAPAN225CFDShort
by Saxo
Buying Nikkei in a bullish channel.NIK225 - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 27675 (stop at 27360) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Trading within a Bullish Channel formation. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 28580 and 29240 Resistance: 28360 / 29240 / 30175 Support: 27370 / 26930 / 26385 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:JAPAN225CFDLong
by Saxo
NIKKEI 225 CFD BEARISH PATTERNJapan is currently facing an inflation high not seen in 40 years. The weak yen and the increased cost of foreign supply for industrial commodities and manufacturing parts are slowing down the economy of the country. On the technical front the index has broken the support of the triangle pattern and a bearish move might be expected. RSI indicator is heading below 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is below 0. If the pattern continues the price might test the support levels of 27831. In the opposite scenario, the price might try to reach its previous resistance at 27929.50 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
TVC:NI225Short
by legacyFXofficial
JAPAN hit by covid cases and the economy contracted 1,2%Japan GDP growth drops 1,2% YoY, and it is followed by a increase in covid cases In the chart we can see: 76,4% FIbo could be the next support, because has already been tested the line after the breakout occured at 9AM GMT, and the top line of descending channel was tested twice after that, followed by bullish candles crossing EMA MACD and Signal is already above de 0%, and we can look at RSI, and it seems to be strong signal above 50
Long
by AFCapital21
Japan’s GDP decline fuels greenback’s reboundEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 Early this morning, the collection of Japan’s economic data indicated a contraction, its GDP has decreased by 0.3% in the quarter, against estimates for a 0.3% increase. As such, USD/JPY added over 100 pips to 139.88, currently at 140.28. USD/CAD also slightly recovered to 1.3311. Meanwhile, EUR/USD bounced back from a low of 1.0274 to 1.0325, investors expected tonight’s Eurozone GDP quarterly growth will fall from 0.8% to 0.2%. GBP/USD recorded a 79 pips loss to a closing price of 1.1752. After some fluctuations, AUD/USD closed at 0.6696 with minor losses, the meeting minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia show the central bank has considered a 50 basis point rate hike for November. Spot gold closed at $1,771.24 and was last traded at $1,769.79 an ounce. WTI oil futures declined to $85.87 a barrel. FTX’s recent collapse sees Bitcoin plunging to a low of 15,852.
by Mitrade_official
USDJPY: Japan intervention is not enough to change major trend.Hey traders, as the monetary policy in the US remains aggressive we still see a possibility of continuation to the upsides on USDJPY unless fed becomes Dovish but it's still not going to happen as inflation in the US is still an issue and the main focus for the US is to control inflation, so what we can expect? more rate hikes, more USD bulls and potentially a continuation of USDJPY uptrend. hence in the coming week we will be monitoring USDJPY for a long term buying opportunity around 146 zone, remember to avoid using tight Stop losses in this type of environments since USDJPY movements will be more volatile and violent and respecting a proper risk management is always recommended so you avoid blowing your accounts, sticking to 1% risk with proper reward ratio will not allow allow the market to you knock you off. if you have any question don't hesitate to ask in the comment section.
Long
by JoeChampion
40
¡Only the begining, stay alert!Hello trader comunity! We are seeing that the markets want to change their trend. More especifically the people thats is behind the computers wants to make gtains after two trimesters in loss. In the other hand, the DXY is fatally crushing after reach the level of 114 and we are seeing lower highs as the index cling to supports. The pair USDJPY after reach the level of 152 gets a reaction from the bears of the pair and then found support in the level of 147 (ema 21). Next week we have de interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan, event that could bring volatily to the pair. But what we must see is how the DXY start the week, anf if it continuos dropping behind 112 ( acting as resistance), we expect a recover from the US500, pairs against the dolar, and the crypto market. This is not a financial advice, good trades and profits!
by CRYPTONIA5
Liz Truss resigns as UK Prime Minister EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 British Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned from her post, after mounting political and economic pressure. GBP/USD peaked at 1.1332 and last traded at 1.1233, domestic retail sales and services PMI data will be available later this afternoon. Meanwhile, the euro retreated from a high of 0.9845 to 0.9783 versus the dollar, closing with minor gains, as AUD/USD slightly increased to 0.6275. USD/JPY finally went past the 150.0 level and stabilized, eventually closing at 150.14, the USD/CAD pair recovered from 1.3653 to 1.3763. Gold price briefly went to $1,645.0 an ounce, and returned to 1,628.28, WTI oil futures traded lower at $84.51 a barrel.
by Mitrade_official
USDJPY- Time to Sell $1.33 trillion of foreign reserves?The Japanese yen has lost almost a fifth of its value against the USD this year, lifting the price of imports and contributing to an eight-year high in the growth of Japan’s core CPI. Similar situation with EURO and GBP. Could this be time for a global backlash against the Fed? Possibly yes, as Masato Kanda, Japan’s leading currency official, said on that Tokyo had “taken decisive action” to address what it warned was a “rapid and one-sided” move in the foreign exchange market. It is the first time Japan had sold dollars since 1998, according to official data. The U.S. Treasury has very calmly acknowledged the Bank of Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange, but stopped short of endorsing the move. “The Bank of Japan today intervened in the foreign exchange market. We understand Japan’s action, which it states aims to reduce recent heightened volatility of the yen," a Treasury spokesperson said, when asked about the currency intervention. Rates: Japan is now the only country in the world to retain negative rates after the Swiss National Bank lifted its own policy rate by 0.75 percentage points on Thursday, taking it into positive territory and ending Europe’s decade-long experiment with sub-zero rates. I see FEDS rising to maybe 5% and most likely GBP is expected to hike to probably 6% The interest rate rises set off heavy selling in government bond markets. US 10-year Treasury yields, a key benchmark for global borrowing costs has soared. It doesn't look good for anyone, especially smaller nations in debt.... Back to Japan: There is a lot of USD that can be sold and they have expressed the need to a 'currency market intervention'. That can only be expressed in selling USD at the moment. Yen-buying intervention has been very rare. The last time Japan intervened to support its currency was in 1998, when the Asian financial crisis triggered a yen sell-off and a rapid capital outflow from the region. Before that, Tokyo intervened to counter yen falls in 1991-1992. Intervening by buying yen is also considered more difficult than by selling it. In an yen-selling intervention, Japan can keep printing yen to sell to the market. But to buy, it needs to tap its $1.33 trillion of foreign reserves which, while abundant, could quickly dwindle if huge sums are required to influence rates. Related articles: www.reuters.com www.bloomberg.com
Short
by FX_Professor
9