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GBP/JPY -26/9/2022-• Rectangle pattern breakout explained • Rectangle pattern can be either reversal or continuation of the prior move • We got a reversal pattern in this case, possibly ending the up trend • A rectangle is defined by a clear support and resistance levels, ideally touching the boundaries more than twice • Rectangle is a trading range, meaning markets are indecisive until the breakout • We often get fake breakouts, which means prices breakout of the rectangle but quickly get back in • Targets for the breakout is usually the height of the rectangle projected from the breakout point • In the case above, we got a breakout at around 159 and the height of the rectangle is around 9. The breakout was to the downside so we subtract 9 from 159, we get a target of 150 and surprisingly it got hit in 2 trading days only • The only question remaining now is; is the breakout going to lead to a long term trend reversal or will prove to be a fake breakout and return back to the rectangle ? • The answer to that should be clearer in the upcoming days
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
USDJPY Potential for Bullish Continuation| 26th Sept 2022On the H4 chart, prices are still moving in an ascending trend signaling bullish momentum- We're looking for a pullback buy entry at 142.526 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line sits to take profit at 144.887 where the previous swing high and 23.6% Fibonacci line lies. Our stop loss is placed at 140.428 where the previous swing low lies. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
Tokyo says enough , starts intervention!INFORMATION USDJPY has been rising for multiple weeks. The current trend is very bullish. Couple of days ago, Japan had to intervene and bought Yen using its dollar reserves. Statistic shows that Japan has over 1 Trillion US dollars in their reserves. As the dollar continues to get stronger, BOJ is planning to Battle for the next 6-9 months to stabilize the Yen. WHAT COMES IN MIND? USDJPY is in a consolidation Phase on the higher timeframe and will continue to do so base on what BOJ is trying to do. FEDS continue to stay Hawkish on Interest rates this means stronger Dollar Japan interest rate stays Low and BOJ still continuing to print Money Population Statistic: Japan has a growing number of Old people compare to Young people, this is very bad long term for the economy because there is a imbalance of supporting cast. MY FINAL THOUGHTS: We will consolidate between 140 - 145 for the next couple of months unless BOJ stops intervening. I have USDJPY continuing higher in a slow fashion to 160 - 170. Weeks to MONTHS
by OmaOne
Why is USDJPY strong and what does it mean to JapanJust sharing and excerpt from Bloomberg for educational purpose source: Bloomberg Why the Yen Is So Weak and What That Means for Japan: QuickTake By Yoshiaki Nohara | Updated September 5, 2022 (Bloomberg) -- The yen has weakened beyond 140 per dollar for the first time in almost a quarter century, mainly because Japan’s central bank is keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels while the Federal Reserve and other central banks are conducting outsized rate hikes. Price growth in Japan is much cooler than in the US, and the Bank of Japan believes it needs to do more to cement inflation in the minds of consumers and businesses after years of deflation. The yen’s historic slide has both benefited and harmed the economy, businesses and consumers. The steepness of its fall raises questions over whether policy makers need to curb its decline through currency intervention or a change in BOJ policy. 1. Why is the yen so weak?  The biggest reason is the US move toward higher interest rates, while Japanese rates remain low, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive for investors. Yields on Treasuries have climbed as traders bet the Fed will continue to raise rates aggressively, while the BOJ keeps a 0.25% cap on Japan’s 10-year government bond yield. Japan’s economic recovery remains relatively moderate and its ongoing trade deficit is also reinforcing downward pressure on the yen.  2. Why doesn’t Japan raise rates? BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly said it’s too early to cut back on monetary easing as the long fight against deflation isn’t yet over. Inflation has accelerated beyond the BOJ’s 2% goal, but the bank says the trend is not sustainable and expects inflation to slip below the target in the year starting April 2023. Kuroda insists stronger wage gains are needed to secure stable inflation.  Kuroda has voiced concerns about the yen’s abrupt weakening, but has made clear the currency won’t cause the BOJ to change policy.   3. What does the weak yen mean for the economy?  Generally, a weaker yen helps large Japanese companies with global operations because it boosts the value of repatriated overseas profits. Partly thanks to the yen’s drop, Japan’s corporate profits have risen to their highest levels since 1954. A weak currency can also help tourism by boosting the buying power of travelers from abroad, but Japan isn’t yet benefiting from this due to pandemic border controls. On the downside, a soft yen makes imports of energy and food more expensive, hitting consumers whose paychecks are not keeping up with the rise in living costs. Their growing angst has weakened public support for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The premier has backed the BOJ’s policy by boosting government spending to cap the impact of higher prices. This sets Japan apart from other major economies that have focused on monetary policy to curb inflation.  4. What does that mean for Kuroda?  With continued support from the government, Kuroda is largely expected to keep interest rates unchanged until his tenure ends in April even if the yen continues to weaken. The governor often points out it’s the finance ministry, not the BOJ, that is in charge of foreign exchange matters. Low borrowing costs also help Kishida to keep increasing public spending to help Japan’s economy recover from the pandemic.  5. Could the government intervene? Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki hasn’t hinted at direct intervention in the currency market as an imminent possibility. If the government did step into markets to strengthen the yen, it would be the first time since 1998, when it and the US joined in a massive, coordinated yen-buying spree. Suzuki and other officials are hoping verbal warnings will be enough to slow the current slide of the yen. With the US focused on battling inflation and the yen’s weakness so closely linked to Japanese monetary policy, a joint intervention with the US faces a high bar. Unilateral interventions to prop up the yen in the past proved largely ineffective. 6. Can the yen fall further?  It’s largely up to how high the Fed will raise rates. The steeper Treasury yields go, the bigger the rate gap between Japan and the US will be as the BOJ maintains its lid on domestic bond yields. The Fed’s interest rate hikes earlier this year prompted investors to bet on Japan following suit. Speculation of eventual change still exists, but has mostly receded after the BOJ repeatedly showed a commitment to defending its yield cap. The yen’s slide may stop once investors finish pricing in the Fed’s rate hikes or the US falls into recession, weakening the dollar. 
Long
by Junmadayag
1
NIKKEI 225 CFD BEARISH PATTERNJapan Economy Watchers Current Index was announced yesterday, below its forecast and also below its neutral line of 50, at 43.8, which can be used as a marker for downturn of the country's economy. On a technical level Japan 225 CFD broke the support of the rising wedge pattern, also signaling a potential bearish move on the instrument. Both MACD and RSI indicators confirm the pattern, and in both the fast moving average is increasing the gap with the slow moving average, indicated best by the MACD histogram. This might be read as an indicator for big movement. If the pattern gets confirmed the price might test its previous low at 27840. If the opposite scenario occurs, the instrument might test the previous support of the rising wedge at 28270. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SKILLING:JAP225Short
by legacyFXofficial
2022/8/2 11:29 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 134.3 Currently: Consolidating at this 134.8 level , its next support zone is at 135.1 Reaction: Resisted at 134 and retraced back to 133.8 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
1
EURJPY analysis: approaching a dangerous zoneThe yen maintains its positive momentum by attracting buying flows from investors seeking refuge in safe-haven currencies as global recession fears grow. The yen also received additional support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged last week that the BoJ should begin considering tools to end ultra-expansionary monetary policy, though the actual change is unlikely to occur anytime soon. In addition to the dollar, the Japanese yen is strongly regaining ground also against the euro, with EUR/JPY now trading at late May levels and down about 6% from June highs. The appreciation of the yen against the euro occurred despite the ECB's 50-basis-point rate hike in July, leaving the BoJ as the only major central bank that has not yet raised rates. Japan has remained more isolated from worrying energy risks in Europe, where the clouds of an impending economic recession are gathering. The 10-year yield spread between Germany and Japan has fallen to 0.6%, the lowest since mid-May, as Bund yields have collapsed in response to data indicating a bleak economic picture in the Eurozone. Technically speaking,tThe formation of a triple top at the end of June ended the EUR/JPY currency pair's multi-year uptrend, and the breakout of the neckline support at 137-137.5 solidified the trend reversal bearish pattern. The RSI is dangerously pointing down, but it still doesn't show that technical conditions are oversold. The next level of support is seen at psychological 134, followed by 132.7 (May 12 lows).
by Capitalcom
Does the pullback in the USDJPY have legs? The US dollar has retreated against its major trading pairs over the past two weeks, but notably, the USDJPY has seen one of the most interesting pullbacks. After peaking on July 14, the USDJPY has fallen more than 4% from a peak just below 139.500. The 2-week weakening streak may continue as the sentiment from the previous FOMC meeting has been conceived as mildly negative for the USD. The Federal Reserve increased its interest rates by 75-basis-points for the second consecutive time on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell stated that a slower hike pace is a possibility, suggesting that the hawkishness may have already passed its peak. This sentiment sent the USDJPY on a sharp correction to the downside. The perspective on this pair on the daily timeframe also suggests that the USDJPY may continue its downward trajectory as the price closed below the 50-day moving average, closing in on 133.300 after creating a low at 132.504. Together with the Donchian Channel Fibonacci Zone, we can see that the price fails to stay inside the blue zone after hitting 138.879 high, breaking below the grey zone and creating a three-day consolidation range between 137.422 and 136.086 before falling inside the orange zone indicating a possible downtrend. With this indicator, the price inside the blue zone is considered an uptrend zone, and the grey zone is considered a ranging zone, while the orange zone is considered a downtrend zone. These Fibonacci lines/zones can also act as either support or resistance levels, and can be used by traders as entry and exit points.
by BlackBull_Markets
What's Hot: The stakes are high for the widow maker tradeThe widow maker trade is back. At over 136 yen to the US dollar, the yen is approaching levels of weakness last seen in the summer of 1998. Investors are now betting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) under growing pressure to stabilise the yen will have to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields and allow them to rise. If this were to happen, it would have widespread ramifications allowing the yen and Japanese rates to rise. BOJ’s unprecedented quantitative easing program is getting harder to defend The BOJ kept its bond purchase plan unchanged for the July-September quarter, even though its actions are weighing on the yen. It insists the Japanese economy still needs support. While this is true, the BOJ needs to take a balanced approach by considering both the merits and side effects of its ultra-easy monetary policy. As it stands, liquidity deteriorated on the JGB market and the weaker yen continues to drive up imported inflation. The BOJ spent more than ¥16Trn (US$118Bn), its largest monthly purchase in June since Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took the helm of the BOJ in 2013, as it sought to suppress yields. The JGB market faces continued pressure with a gauge of liquidity pointing to worst levels since 2013. A rise in the index implies a decline in liquidity. Inflation becoming a concern A gauge of Japan’s inflation expectations has climbed to a seven-year high, as a weak yen compounds the effect of elevated commodity prices. In Tokyo, the core CPI (excluding only fresh food) increased 2.1% YoY in June, picking up from a 1.9% YoY rise in May. The boost from energy prices barely changed owing to government subsidies for oil wholesale companies. The June BOJ tankan (short term economic outlook), showed business confidence Diffusion Index (DI) among large manufacturers decline in June for a second quarter in a row owing to parts shortages, surging raw material costs and lockdowns in China. With raw material prices surging and the yen depreciating, the output price DI continued to show pass-through of higher costs to sales prices, and corporate inflation expectations increased further. BOJs containment of yields becoming a costly affair By implicitly capping 10-year Japanese government bond yields at 0.25%, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is struggling against the tide of rising global interest rates. In doing so, the BOJ now owns almost half of all Japanese government bonds (JGB). This could spell trouble for the Japanese government as it relies on the BOJ indirectly underwriting its spending with large debt purchases. According to Mitsubishi UFJ, the BOJ may have been saddled with as much as ¥600Bn (US$4.4Bn) in unrealised losses on its JGB holdings earlier this month, owing to the widening gap between domestic and overseas monetary policy. They estimate if 10-year yields reach 0.65%, paper losses on JGBs could exceed the BOJs capital base, which totalled ¥10.9trn at the end of March. As the BOJ’s own calculations use book value as opposed to market value, it reflects no change in its finances. Yen remains a favourite habitat of FX reserves in Q1 According to the IMF, global FX reserves managers sold euros, US dollars, and pounds in Q1 2022 and bought more yen than any other currency making it a favourite habitat of FX reserves. FX reserves probably had to shore up a decreased share of yen assets owing to the yen’s decline. Persistent demand from reserve managers alongside Japan’s status as the world’s largest net creditor may also help provide a floor for further downside. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
2022/7/28 11:59 EUR/JPY analyse Pivot Point: 137.6 Currently: Consolidating at this 138.6 level , its next support zone is at 139.8 Reaction: Resisted at 137.31 and retraced back to 136.75 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
2022/7/11 15:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0 Currently: Consolidating at this 139.0 level , its next support zone is at 140.0 Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
2022/7/7 16:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0 Currently: Consolidating at this 140.0 level , its next support zone is at 141.0 Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
Really important monthly close for USDJPYAs deflationary forces are taking over and bonds are rising, USDJPY is a key FX pair to be watching. Why? Because many players dumped Yen and their JGBs, as they expected higher and higher inflation and bond yields in the US. Now that US rates are coming down, JPY is becoming more attractive. Not only that, but JGBs are becoming more attractive as there is a smaller supply out there relative to a few months ago, while there are already lots of traders/funds who have been betting that the Japanese bond market would collapse. As deflation is coming back and Japan really has all the characteristics of a deflationary economy, buying some JGBs and Yen wouldn't be a bad idea. USDJPY swept a major high a few days ago, and then it swept it again today. A second failure and a monthly / quarterly close below that high, could be a major sign that more downside could follow in the short term. In the long term I am fairly certain that the USD will appreciate a lot more than the JPY for multiple reasons, therefore this is just a short term play. Anything from 131 and down to 125 is possible for USDJPY in Q3-Q4 2022, especially when the Fed is forced to reverse course and cut rates & resume QE. For quite some time I believe that CPI prints will be negative MoM. I also believe that the 2022 CPI print will be 4%, and that next June the YoY print will be 0 or negative. All that in the US of course, and of course I could be wrong. We could also see deflationary pressures take place and the USD rise against most currencies during that deflationary period / episode. Maybe we have a major crash at some point, one that would lead the Fed to take action once again, something that could send the dollar a lot lower. In case the market continues higher, and closes this week and next week above 135.7, then it is safe to assume that we'll be going higher regardless of the macro environment. Japan is lacking energy and food production, while it has worse demographics and debt that the US. Therefore it is very hard to see how the Yen doesn't depreciate against the US dollar. This means that every dip below in the 125-131 region is an opportunity to go long.
by BitcoinMacro
JPYXJPYX is in a strong downtrend, you can see I have used the rvi indicator and noticed huge levels of divergence, this is a different reading on the indicator to what price is doing, so an example in this chart is the lower high in price and the higher high on the indicator, these are subtle signs that there is disturbance inbound, these divergences can often lead to good profits, so check it for yourself. The price action looks great currently with the MA8 trending under the MA89 signalling a downtrend, price has returned to the MA89 and given us divergences and sell signals on the indicator, so now our check list for entry is growing, we then take a look as oil price and notice the strong rallies in recent days, if oil continues to climb the JPY will likely lose more value, Personally I think the Japanese are waiting for US rate hikes to brind down the demand for the oil, in doing so this could see JPY make a strong bounce back. However in current conditions the JPY looks weak, so I believe to look for buys in yen crosses, and look for more long opportunities in oil if they present themselves.
PEPPERSTONE:JPYXShort
by ZenFlo
2
Japan offers an avenue in a violent global value rotation2022 has marked a turn of events for Japan. The once regarded safe haven yen, has declined the most (-11.3%) among G101 currencies this year2. A large part of the Yen’s decline is rooted in the widening of policy divergence between the US and Japan. China, alongside Japan, is the only real major economy easing policy in 2022. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also recently announced unlimited buying of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to stem any movement higher in long-term borrowing costs above 25 basis points (bps). This divergence in policy stance is even more apparent with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to reduce its large balance sheet through a “fast runoff” that might pressure the long end of the US yield curve higher. Historically very low interest rates in Japan made borrowing in Yen attractive. But now with other currencies in a similar position of offering zero (or negative) rates on the currency many years out, the Yen lost its competitive edge on the famous carry trade. Hedging costs are now rising along with global short-term rates, particularly in the US. This could cause even more Yen selling as investors’ demands for US dollars increase, and they seek the higher levels of interest rates available in the US markets without hedging the currency’s movements. The weaker Yen bolsters the case for Japanese exporters The weaker Yen has widespread implications for the Japanese equities since Japan is a market that generates a large portion of its revenue from global markets. So, a weaker Yen supports its profit outlook, thereby making Japanese exporters more competitive than global peers. This theory was validated on March 25, in an address to the Japanese parliament by the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who said, “There is no change in the basic structure that a weaker yen has positive effects on the Japanese economy by pushing up the overall economy and prices.” A January report from the BOJ estimated that a 10% depreciation in the yen would push up Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 1%3. Japan’s energy sector to witness a shift to nuclear power While much of the attention remains on the weaker Yen’s impact on exporters, it’s important to note that a weaker Yen also raises the costs of imports. Japan’s trade deficit widened to US$3.2Bn in March largely due to soaring energy costs. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine strengthens the case for Japan to shift its energy policy in favour of restarting nuclear power. During a speech in London on May 5, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Japan would turn to its nuclear reactors to help reduce the country’s dependence on Russian fuel. He asserted Japan’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 and the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 46% by 2030 while ensuring a stable energy supply. Growth in Japanese dividends lure investors Inflation has remained worryingly high in the US and Europe and surprisingly low in Japan. Owing to which, high dividend paying strategies have thrived in 2022. Interestingly, since the pandemic, Japanese dividends have grown more than major regions from the US to Europe and emerging markets. While European dividends have contracted more than 10%, Japanese dividends have grown almost 18%, measured in local currency terms. Given the conservative pay-out ratios of Japanese companies—which helped buffer dividend cuts in 2020—Japan tends to have a lower dividend yield than Europe, where dividend payments can be more cyclical. Adopting a hedged Japanese exposure Amidst rising geopolitical risks, Japanese equity markets performance have withstood the ensuing volatility better than most of its developed market peers in 2022 in local currency terms. However, when measured in foreign currency terms i.e., the US dollar or EUR terms the losses are magnified on the downside due to the weakness of the Yen (as shown below). This goes to a point we often make - currency changes do not need to impact your foreign return, and you can target that local market return by hedging your currency risk. A hedged Japanese dividend paying equity exposure could enable an investor to hedge their exposure to the Yen. Valuations remain attractive both historically and compared to developed markets. US equity earnings multiples are trading at a 20% premium while Japan is priced at a 15% discount to its historical medium . The ensuing rotation from growth to value remains an attractive environment for value-oriented cyclical and industrial companies which are dominant in Japanese equity markets. Sources 1 The Group of Ten or G10 is a group of 11 industrialized nations that have similar economic interests. 2 Bloomberg from 31 December 2021 to 11 May 2022. 3 “Outlook for Economic Activity and Price,” Bank of Japan, January 2022. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
INDEX:NKY
by aneekaguptaWTE