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NIKKEI 225 CFD BEARISH PATTERNJapan Economy Watchers Current Index was announced yesterday, below its forecast and also below its neutral line of 50, at 43.8, which can be used as a marker for downturn of the country's economy. On a technical level Japan 225 CFD broke the support of the rising wedge pattern, also signaling a potential bearish move on the instrument. Both MACD and RSI indicators confirm the pattern, and in both the fast moving average is increasing the gap with the slow moving average, indicated best by the MACD histogram. This might be read as an indicator for big movement. If the pattern gets confirmed the price might test its previous low at 27840. If the opposite scenario occurs, the instrument might test the previous support of the rising wedge at 28270. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SKILLING:JAP225Short
by legacyFXofficial
2022/8/2 11:29 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 134.3 Currently: Consolidating at this 134.8 level , its next support zone is at 135.1 Reaction: Resisted at 134 and retraced back to 133.8 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
1
EURJPY analysis: approaching a dangerous zoneThe yen maintains its positive momentum by attracting buying flows from investors seeking refuge in safe-haven currencies as global recession fears grow. The yen also received additional support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged last week that the BoJ should begin considering tools to end ultra-expansionary monetary policy, though the actual change is unlikely to occur anytime soon. In addition to the dollar, the Japanese yen is strongly regaining ground also against the euro, with EUR/JPY now trading at late May levels and down about 6% from June highs. The appreciation of the yen against the euro occurred despite the ECB's 50-basis-point rate hike in July, leaving the BoJ as the only major central bank that has not yet raised rates. Japan has remained more isolated from worrying energy risks in Europe, where the clouds of an impending economic recession are gathering. The 10-year yield spread between Germany and Japan has fallen to 0.6%, the lowest since mid-May, as Bund yields have collapsed in response to data indicating a bleak economic picture in the Eurozone. Technically speaking,tThe formation of a triple top at the end of June ended the EUR/JPY currency pair's multi-year uptrend, and the breakout of the neckline support at 137-137.5 solidified the trend reversal bearish pattern. The RSI is dangerously pointing down, but it still doesn't show that technical conditions are oversold. The next level of support is seen at psychological 134, followed by 132.7 (May 12 lows).
by Capitalcom
Does the pullback in the USDJPY have legs? The US dollar has retreated against its major trading pairs over the past two weeks, but notably, the USDJPY has seen one of the most interesting pullbacks. After peaking on July 14, the USDJPY has fallen more than 4% from a peak just below 139.500. The 2-week weakening streak may continue as the sentiment from the previous FOMC meeting has been conceived as mildly negative for the USD. The Federal Reserve increased its interest rates by 75-basis-points for the second consecutive time on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell stated that a slower hike pace is a possibility, suggesting that the hawkishness may have already passed its peak. This sentiment sent the USDJPY on a sharp correction to the downside. The perspective on this pair on the daily timeframe also suggests that the USDJPY may continue its downward trajectory as the price closed below the 50-day moving average, closing in on 133.300 after creating a low at 132.504. Together with the Donchian Channel Fibonacci Zone, we can see that the price fails to stay inside the blue zone after hitting 138.879 high, breaking below the grey zone and creating a three-day consolidation range between 137.422 and 136.086 before falling inside the orange zone indicating a possible downtrend. With this indicator, the price inside the blue zone is considered an uptrend zone, and the grey zone is considered a ranging zone, while the orange zone is considered a downtrend zone. These Fibonacci lines/zones can also act as either support or resistance levels, and can be used by traders as entry and exit points.
by BlackBull_Markets
What's Hot: The stakes are high for the widow maker tradeThe widow maker trade is back. At over 136 yen to the US dollar, the yen is approaching levels of weakness last seen in the summer of 1998. Investors are now betting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) under growing pressure to stabilise the yen will have to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields and allow them to rise. If this were to happen, it would have widespread ramifications allowing the yen and Japanese rates to rise. BOJ’s unprecedented quantitative easing program is getting harder to defend The BOJ kept its bond purchase plan unchanged for the July-September quarter, even though its actions are weighing on the yen. It insists the Japanese economy still needs support. While this is true, the BOJ needs to take a balanced approach by considering both the merits and side effects of its ultra-easy monetary policy. As it stands, liquidity deteriorated on the JGB market and the weaker yen continues to drive up imported inflation. The BOJ spent more than ¥16Trn (US$118Bn), its largest monthly purchase in June since Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took the helm of the BOJ in 2013, as it sought to suppress yields. The JGB market faces continued pressure with a gauge of liquidity pointing to worst levels since 2013. A rise in the index implies a decline in liquidity. Inflation becoming a concern A gauge of Japan’s inflation expectations has climbed to a seven-year high, as a weak yen compounds the effect of elevated commodity prices. In Tokyo, the core CPI (excluding only fresh food) increased 2.1% YoY in June, picking up from a 1.9% YoY rise in May. The boost from energy prices barely changed owing to government subsidies for oil wholesale companies. The June BOJ tankan (short term economic outlook), showed business confidence Diffusion Index (DI) among large manufacturers decline in June for a second quarter in a row owing to parts shortages, surging raw material costs and lockdowns in China. With raw material prices surging and the yen depreciating, the output price DI continued to show pass-through of higher costs to sales prices, and corporate inflation expectations increased further. BOJs containment of yields becoming a costly affair By implicitly capping 10-year Japanese government bond yields at 0.25%, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is struggling against the tide of rising global interest rates. In doing so, the BOJ now owns almost half of all Japanese government bonds (JGB). This could spell trouble for the Japanese government as it relies on the BOJ indirectly underwriting its spending with large debt purchases. According to Mitsubishi UFJ, the BOJ may have been saddled with as much as ¥600Bn (US$4.4Bn) in unrealised losses on its JGB holdings earlier this month, owing to the widening gap between domestic and overseas monetary policy. They estimate if 10-year yields reach 0.65%, paper losses on JGBs could exceed the BOJs capital base, which totalled ¥10.9trn at the end of March. As the BOJ’s own calculations use book value as opposed to market value, it reflects no change in its finances. Yen remains a favourite habitat of FX reserves in Q1 According to the IMF, global FX reserves managers sold euros, US dollars, and pounds in Q1 2022 and bought more yen than any other currency making it a favourite habitat of FX reserves. FX reserves probably had to shore up a decreased share of yen assets owing to the yen’s decline. Persistent demand from reserve managers alongside Japan’s status as the world’s largest net creditor may also help provide a floor for further downside. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
2022/7/28 11:59 EUR/JPY analyse Pivot Point: 137.6 Currently: Consolidating at this 138.6 level , its next support zone is at 139.8 Reaction: Resisted at 137.31 and retraced back to 136.75 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
2022/7/11 15:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0 Currently: Consolidating at this 139.0 level , its next support zone is at 140.0 Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
2022/7/7 16:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0 Currently: Consolidating at this 140.0 level , its next support zone is at 141.0 Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
Really important monthly close for USDJPYAs deflationary forces are taking over and bonds are rising, USDJPY is a key FX pair to be watching. Why? Because many players dumped Yen and their JGBs, as they expected higher and higher inflation and bond yields in the US. Now that US rates are coming down, JPY is becoming more attractive. Not only that, but JGBs are becoming more attractive as there is a smaller supply out there relative to a few months ago, while there are already lots of traders/funds who have been betting that the Japanese bond market would collapse. As deflation is coming back and Japan really has all the characteristics of a deflationary economy, buying some JGBs and Yen wouldn't be a bad idea. USDJPY swept a major high a few days ago, and then it swept it again today. A second failure and a monthly / quarterly close below that high, could be a major sign that more downside could follow in the short term. In the long term I am fairly certain that the USD will appreciate a lot more than the JPY for multiple reasons, therefore this is just a short term play. Anything from 131 and down to 125 is possible for USDJPY in Q3-Q4 2022, especially when the Fed is forced to reverse course and cut rates & resume QE. For quite some time I believe that CPI prints will be negative MoM. I also believe that the 2022 CPI print will be 4%, and that next June the YoY print will be 0 or negative. All that in the US of course, and of course I could be wrong. We could also see deflationary pressures take place and the USD rise against most currencies during that deflationary period / episode. Maybe we have a major crash at some point, one that would lead the Fed to take action once again, something that could send the dollar a lot lower. In case the market continues higher, and closes this week and next week above 135.7, then it is safe to assume that we'll be going higher regardless of the macro environment. Japan is lacking energy and food production, while it has worse demographics and debt that the US. Therefore it is very hard to see how the Yen doesn't depreciate against the US dollar. This means that every dip below in the 125-131 region is an opportunity to go long.
by BitcoinMacro
JPYXJPYX is in a strong downtrend, you can see I have used the rvi indicator and noticed huge levels of divergence, this is a different reading on the indicator to what price is doing, so an example in this chart is the lower high in price and the higher high on the indicator, these are subtle signs that there is disturbance inbound, these divergences can often lead to good profits, so check it for yourself. The price action looks great currently with the MA8 trending under the MA89 signalling a downtrend, price has returned to the MA89 and given us divergences and sell signals on the indicator, so now our check list for entry is growing, we then take a look as oil price and notice the strong rallies in recent days, if oil continues to climb the JPY will likely lose more value, Personally I think the Japanese are waiting for US rate hikes to brind down the demand for the oil, in doing so this could see JPY make a strong bounce back. However in current conditions the JPY looks weak, so I believe to look for buys in yen crosses, and look for more long opportunities in oil if they present themselves.
PEPPERSTONE:JPYXShort
by ZenFlo
2
Japan offers an avenue in a violent global value rotation2022 has marked a turn of events for Japan. The once regarded safe haven yen, has declined the most (-11.3%) among G101 currencies this year2. A large part of the Yen’s decline is rooted in the widening of policy divergence between the US and Japan. China, alongside Japan, is the only real major economy easing policy in 2022. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also recently announced unlimited buying of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to stem any movement higher in long-term borrowing costs above 25 basis points (bps). This divergence in policy stance is even more apparent with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to reduce its large balance sheet through a “fast runoff” that might pressure the long end of the US yield curve higher. Historically very low interest rates in Japan made borrowing in Yen attractive. But now with other currencies in a similar position of offering zero (or negative) rates on the currency many years out, the Yen lost its competitive edge on the famous carry trade. Hedging costs are now rising along with global short-term rates, particularly in the US. This could cause even more Yen selling as investors’ demands for US dollars increase, and they seek the higher levels of interest rates available in the US markets without hedging the currency’s movements. The weaker Yen bolsters the case for Japanese exporters The weaker Yen has widespread implications for the Japanese equities since Japan is a market that generates a large portion of its revenue from global markets. So, a weaker Yen supports its profit outlook, thereby making Japanese exporters more competitive than global peers. This theory was validated on March 25, in an address to the Japanese parliament by the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who said, “There is no change in the basic structure that a weaker yen has positive effects on the Japanese economy by pushing up the overall economy and prices.” A January report from the BOJ estimated that a 10% depreciation in the yen would push up Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 1%3. Japan’s energy sector to witness a shift to nuclear power While much of the attention remains on the weaker Yen’s impact on exporters, it’s important to note that a weaker Yen also raises the costs of imports. Japan’s trade deficit widened to US$3.2Bn in March largely due to soaring energy costs. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine strengthens the case for Japan to shift its energy policy in favour of restarting nuclear power. During a speech in London on May 5, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Japan would turn to its nuclear reactors to help reduce the country’s dependence on Russian fuel. He asserted Japan’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 and the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 46% by 2030 while ensuring a stable energy supply. Growth in Japanese dividends lure investors Inflation has remained worryingly high in the US and Europe and surprisingly low in Japan. Owing to which, high dividend paying strategies have thrived in 2022. Interestingly, since the pandemic, Japanese dividends have grown more than major regions from the US to Europe and emerging markets. While European dividends have contracted more than 10%, Japanese dividends have grown almost 18%, measured in local currency terms. Given the conservative pay-out ratios of Japanese companies—which helped buffer dividend cuts in 2020—Japan tends to have a lower dividend yield than Europe, where dividend payments can be more cyclical. Adopting a hedged Japanese exposure Amidst rising geopolitical risks, Japanese equity markets performance have withstood the ensuing volatility better than most of its developed market peers in 2022 in local currency terms. However, when measured in foreign currency terms i.e., the US dollar or EUR terms the losses are magnified on the downside due to the weakness of the Yen (as shown below). This goes to a point we often make - currency changes do not need to impact your foreign return, and you can target that local market return by hedging your currency risk. A hedged Japanese dividend paying equity exposure could enable an investor to hedge their exposure to the Yen. Valuations remain attractive both historically and compared to developed markets. US equity earnings multiples are trading at a 20% premium while Japan is priced at a 15% discount to its historical medium . The ensuing rotation from growth to value remains an attractive environment for value-oriented cyclical and industrial companies which are dominant in Japanese equity markets. Sources 1 The Group of Ten or G10 is a group of 11 industrialized nations that have similar economic interests. 2 Bloomberg from 31 December 2021 to 11 May 2022. 3 “Outlook for Economic Activity and Price,” Bank of Japan, January 2022. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
INDEX:NKY
by aneekaguptaWTE
When this trendline breaks, Japan may hyperinflateJapan's central bank is buying unlimited amounts of Japanese debt in order to maintain yields around 0.25%. This ratio shows yields over the central bank's balance sheet. When this trendline breaks to the upside, it essentially means that Japanese debt is being sold faster than the central bank can buy. Japan may be going through some serious financial events very soon. www.cnbc.com The bank of Japan is selling US treasuries in order to buy more Japanese treasuries. This may cascade into US problem of rising interest rates and unsustainable debt levels being that Japan is the largest foreign holder. www.bloomberg.com
TVC:JP10Y
by rrmhearts
BSV now trading in Japan for the first time ever on HuobiHuobi Japan has begun listing Bitcoin’s native asset, BSV, on its trading platform. It’s the first time BSV has gained a listing on one of the world’s most lucrative digital asset trading markets. Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, and the yen (JPY) is the world’s third-most traded fiat currency. The country’s share of the world’s (fiat) FX trading market has been estimated at around 4.5%. FTX interim CEO Sam Bankman-Fried recently suggested Japan’s digital asset trading market could be worth US$1 trillion. Both Huobi’s announcement and Bankman-Fried’s prediction are a few weeks old now, and Huobi’s BSV launch is landing smack in the middle of one of the digital asset industry’s worst price crashes. Bitcoin fans probably could have wished for this historic event to have happened at a more favorable time for the trading markets—and the global economy in general. However, just yesterday, BSV bucked the overall market trend by rising 10% as most others fell, possibly due to traders anticipating a growth opportunity. (For the record, Bankman-Fried remains bullish about the market and has promised to expand his businesses rather than downsizing as other large names like Coinbase have done.) Japan has been generally permissive of digital assets and the development of blockchain technology over the years. However, this has come with heavy regulation of exchange platforms and the assets they are allowed to list. These regulations have limited Japan-based digital asset trading to an exclusive range of coins and tokens that often reflected sentiments at the time the rules were made in preferences of industry groups like Ethereum Classic, BCH, and Japan’s own Monacoin. Until this year, it did not include BSV. Now that it does, and a large exchange has begun trading it, any visible demand for BSV could see other Japanese exchanges follow suit. Gaining regulatory acceptance from Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) and an exchange listing was the result of the BSV Blockchain Association’s consultation and lobbying. The Association’s General Counsel and Chief of Staff, Marcin Zarakowski, has said the current introduction of SPV standards to BSV will help overcome any concerns regarding transaction security. Previously, the sheer volume of transactions on the BSV network had made some exchanges hesitant to support the asset.
BLong
by Kenneth4333333