$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5%
(September/2024)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April.
Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%).
Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%).
Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%).
On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%).
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
Japan
HeartCore Announces Preliminary Third Quarter 2024 ResultsQ3 2024 Revenues Expected to Increase to Between $17 Million and $19 Million
Q3 2024 Net Income Expected to Increase to Between $9 Million and $11 Million
NEW YORK and TOKYO, Oct. 18, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HeartCore Enterprises, Inc. (Nasdaq: HTCR) (“HeartCore” or “the Company”), a leading enterprise software and data consulting services company based in Tokyo, announced select preliminary financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. These results are preliminary and unaudited, and are subject to all aspects of the final quarterly review process and may change as a result of new information that arises, or new determinations that are made, in this process.
Based on preliminary unaudited results, the Company expects revenues for the third quarter of 2024 to be between $17 million and $19 million, representing an increase of between 263% and 305%, compared to $4.7 million in the same quarter last year. Revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 are expected to be between $26 million and $28 million, representing an increase of between 40% and 51%, compared to $18.5 million for the same period last year.
Net income is expected to be between $9 million and $11 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared to a net loss of $2.5 million in the same period last year. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 is expected to be between $5 million and $7 million, compared to a net loss of $1.8 million in the same period last year.
HeartCore’s “Software Related Business” and “Go IPO Business” include the following revenue streams:
Software Related Business
Revenues from on-premise software
Revenues from maintenance and support services
Revenues from software as a service (“SaaS”)
Revenues from software development and other miscellaneous services
Revenues from customized software development and services
Go IPO Business
“I am pleased to announce robust preliminary results for this past third quarter, the strongest quarter in HeartCore’s history,” said the Company CEO Sumitaka Kanno. “This significant increase is primarily due to the recent public listing of our Go IPO client, SBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated (“SBC”). The Company is expected to report approximately $12 to $14 million in revenues from warrants issued by SBC for our IPO consulting services. This Go IPO deal is the biggest achievement since the business’ inception and underscores the immense value our consulting business presents. Additionally, we have an incremental three Go IPO deals that are slated to close over the next several months, and with an optimistic outlook on the U.S. IPO market for Japanese companies, we look forward to the completion of these deals that are set to further strengthen our financial results. We also shifted toward proposing multi-year software licensing agreements to our customers starting in 2024, and these agreements corresponded to increased revenues in our Software Related Business. 2024 is set to be the strongest year in HeartCore history, and we remain committed to retaining this upward trend for future quarters and years ahead. We look forward to providing the full details of our third quarter 2024 financial results in mid-November.”
BloomZ Inc. (NASDAQ: BLMZ) has been making some interesting moveNew Anime Project: BloomZ has been chosen as the main animation studio for the upcoming anime "Kakushite! Makina-san!", which is set to air in 2025. They've snagged some cool rights too, like international distribution and merch, which could really boost their revenue.
Partnerships in the Works: They're teaming up with CrossVision Inc. and sonilude Inc. to combine tech and sound expertise for their anime and VTuber projects. This means they’re bringing Web 3.0 tech and killer sound to their work—definitely something to watch.
Big Investment: They’ve also secured up to USD 30 million in investment from White Lion Capital, giving them a solid boost to fund future projects and growth.
What’s your thought on this company?
USD/JPY Remains Strong as JPY Struggles for Upside The USD/JPY pair continued its upward trend on Tuesday, maintaining strength despite limited upside potential for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The JPY's inability to gain ground is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Coupled with a generally positive risk tone in the markets, this has kept the JPY, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, from making any meaningful gains.
US Data and Market Outlook
Tuesday’s economic calendar for the US is relatively quiet, with no major data releases expected. However, the spotlight will turn to Thursday’s key economic reports, which include the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject more volatility into the market and could influence the trajectory of the US Dollar and other major currency pairs, including USD/JPY.
Given the strength of the USD near its two-month peak, the upcoming data could further support the dollar, limiting any potential upside for the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar's resilience continues to exert pressure on the JPY, keeping the pair on a bullish path.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Targeting 152.000
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair appears poised to extend its rally, with a potential target around the 152.000 level. This area could be reached following the release of the key US economic reports on Thursday, which may provide the necessary momentum for further gains.
The technical outlook is supported by the broader strength of the USD and the lack of strong upside drivers for the JPY. The chart of JPY futures also reflects the challenging environment for the Yen, signaling continued weakness.
Chart Overview: JPY Futures Chart
As shown in the chart, the JPY remains under pressure in the futures market, further confirming our outlook for continued USD/JPY strength.
Strategy: Patience is Key
After successfully closing our previous USD/JPY trade in profit, we are now waiting for a more favorable area to enter a new position. With key economic data on the horizon, patience remains essential as we await clearer signals from the market.
In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain its bullish trend in the near term, with a potential target of 152.000. The combination of US Dollar strength and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s rate policy should keep the Yen on the defensive, at least until there are clearer indications of future central bank actions. For now, we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the next opportunity to re-enter the market.
PREVIOUS CLOSED POSITION:
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Technical Review - HeartCore Enterprise Inc. (14/10/2024)Upon breaking the key resistance of $0.80, a strong buying interest can be observed for HeartCore Enterprise Inc. (NASDAQ: HTCR). The money flow indicator (MCDX) also indicates strong institutional buying interest as shown in the red bar, with the current trailing price is trending well above EMA levels.
We expect a continuous uptrend for HTCR ahead to challenge key resistance level of $1.00 over the mid term, which is our next TP. We remain positive and rated the company a Trading BUY at its current level.
(Shared) HTCR is a Compelling Investment Opportunity in NasdaqHeartCore Enterprises, Inc. (HTCR) has positioned itself as a leader in the enterprise software and digital transformation space, making it an intriguing target for investors seeking exposure to innovative technology and growing markets.
Listed on the NASDAQ, HeartCore is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, and has diversified its business model to provide a range of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions, data analytics, and digital transformation services, along with a unique consulting service for assisting Japanese companies in listing on U.S. stock exchanges.
Our investment thesis for HTCR is as below.
Dominance in the Japanese CMS Market. HTCR’s Content Management System (CMS) platform has been the top-ranked solution in Japan for nine consecutive years, holding a 15.1% market share according to ITR Corporation. This leadership is a testament to HTCR ability to deliver innovative and reliable solutions, with over 700 Japanese companies using its CMS platform.
Strategic Acquisitions Bolster U.S. Expansion. The previous acquisition of Sigmaways and Sabatini Global has expanded HTCR footprint into the U.S. market, creating new avenues for growth. These acquisitions have allowed the company to integrate advanced AI and software engineering capabilities into its offerings, enhancing its competitiveness and enabling it to penetrate new markets.
Go IPO Business Segment. A unique aspect of HTCR business is its Go IPO service, which helps Japanese companies navigate the process of listing on U.S. stock exchanges. As of 2024, HeartCore has secured 14 clients for its Go IPO services, with four of these successfully completing their listings on Nasdaq (According to a research note by Lighthouse Research) This consulting business has generated substantial revenue, contributing 28% to HTCR’s 2023 revenue. It also offers an opportunity for HeartCore to build strong relationships with companies that may require ongoing digital solutions, fostering long-term partnerships and cross-selling opportunities.
Focus on AI and Digital Transformation. HTCR’s AI software development division, launched in collaboration with its subsidiary Sigmaways, is another promising growth vector. This division focuses on developing AI-based solutions that cater to evolving client needs, such as predictive analytics, robotic process automation (RPA), and enhanced customer engagement strategies.
As the global customer experience management market is projected to grow at a 15.2% CAGR, reaching $47.8 billion by 2032, HeartCore is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.
Financial Overview. HTCR’s revenue mix has evolved significantly, with its software business now contributing 60% to overall revenue, and the remaining 40% coming from consulting services like Go IPO. Despite challenges in its consulting segment in early 2024, the company is projected to recover in the latter half of the year, driven by gross proceeds from warrant sales and a strong push for new customer acquisitions in its software business.
The company has also shown prudent financial management with a focus on cost efficiency, achieving profitable quarters within its software division. With a clean balance sheet and additional capital inflows expected from ongoing IPO consulting deals, HeartCore is well-positioned to pursue further acquisitions, expand its product offerings, and reinforce its market presence.
Investment Outlook
HTCR offers a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to a company that is actively growing in the digital transformation space, supported by a diversified revenue model and strategic U.S. expansion. With its market leadership in Japan, robust AI initiatives, and potential for further growth through strategic acquisitions, HeartCore stands poised to deliver value to its shareholders.
The company’s strong customer base, combined with its innovative Go IPO services, makes HTCR a stock worth considering for long-term growth potential amidst the evolving tech landscape.
NIKKEI to continue hold back the bulls?NIK225 - 24h expiry
We are trading at overbought extremes.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Previous resistance located at 40008.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Sell at 39998 (stop at 40551)
Our profit targets will be 38457 and 37705
Resistance: 42155 / 45325 / 46980
Support: 37705 / 36330 / 34955
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Update idea
NASDAQ: HTCR | Technical Review 07/10/2024Supported by their strong profit forecast, we are starting to see investors building up position in Heartcore Enterprise Inc. (NASDAQ: HTCR) despite huge profit taking activity was seen in last Friday. Nevertheless, HTCR's share price was strongly supported around its current level, with the expectation to hold around $0.750 for the remaining of the week.
We deem this as a Trading BUY opportunity for those who have not built any position on hand for HTCR.
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4
For those that watched the market analysis and live charting video, you would have seen us discuss GBPJPY and the 195 psychological price/sell zone. We have since seen this zone tested and subsequently rejected. How much mileage this setup has... I don't know, but if we can break 194.500, we should see a send lower.
A break and candle close around or below 194.500 is important, breaking this H4 and H1 consolidation, EUR and LON session could certainly be enough to drive this setup where is needs to go.
JASMY jasmy "wedge view"This is the wedge view for Jasmy based on 100 day and 50 day past moving averages trajectory leading up to Nov 1st 2024. The range anyway. This does not mean the price is subject to necessary stay within the boundaries of the purple lines drawn as much as the projected outcome for the price in a variable sense according to today from the indicator I use. Obviously, BTC movement seems to always impact the rest of exchange traded cryptocurrency tokens or coins so when the price of BTC fell so did everything else. Seems like a cop out for the price of cryptocurrency trends to always fallowe BTC necessarily considering how indicators should in some ways tell a different story for different cryptocurrency.
USD/JPY Poised for Gains as DXY StrengthensThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward momentum as Treasury yields recover from recent losses, bolstering the Greenback’s strength. However, this rally may soon face headwinds, with growing market expectations of additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.
Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US Flash Manufacturing PMI, which is due for release within the hour. The PMI data will offer a fresh perspective on the health of the US manufacturing sector, and any surprise in the numbers could influence the Greenback’s near-term trajectory. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight improvement, reflecting stabilizing economic conditions, but traders remain alert for any deviations from the forecast.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability that the Fed could reduce rates by as much as 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of the year. This potential easing has kept some investors cautious, as it could curb the USD’s long-term gains.
From a technical standpoint, we are seeing a key opportunity in the USD/JPY pair, which has rebounded from a strong demand area. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are still heavily short on the USD/JPY, while institutional "smart money" appears to be shifting its stance, reducing its bearish exposure. This setup aligns with our previous analysis, where we highlighted the potential for a long position as the pair regains upward momentum.
As the USD/JPY continues to rebound from this demand zone, the conditions remain favorable for a long trade. The shift in sentiment among institutional traders, combined with the recovery in Treasury yields and the strength of the DXY, supports the case for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious as the Fed’s rate cut expectations may still influence broader USD sentiment in the months ahead.
For now, the focus remains on the US PMI release and its impact on both Treasury yields and the USD. Should the data come in stronger than expected, it could provide additional fuel for the DXY’s rally, further reinforcing the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PMI data could reignite concerns about the Fed’s dovish outlook, potentially pausing the Greenback's current rally.
We continue to monitor the situation closely, with a bullish setup in USD/JPY remaining a key focus in the near term.
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Bitcoin Falls Marking the Worst 'Uptober' in Nearly a DecadeMarket Update - October 4th 2024
Takeaways
Bitcoin fell following the news of Iran’s retaliation on Israel, and the election of Japan’s new prime minister: The decline comes after a recent rally spurred by the Federal Reserve's rate cut.
Net inflows into global crypto funds reached $1.2 billion last week, marking their largest increase in 10 weeks: US-based spot bitcoin ETFs contributed $1.1 billion in these inflows, while Ethereum products ended a five-week streak of outflows by adding $87 million.
Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, was released from prison after completing a four-month sentence for failing to establish money laundering controls: Zhao paid a $50 million personal fine and is no longer allowed to hold executive positions at the company.
Ohio State Senator Niraj Antani introduced a bill that would require all political subdivisions in Ohio to accept cryptocurrency payments for state and local taxes: The proposal also allows state universities and pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, positioning Ohio at the forefront of crypto adoption.
More than 94% of FTX's Dotcom creditors voted in favor of a reorganization proposal: The proposal would see 98% of creditors receiving at least 118% of their claim value.
🥩 Topic of the Week: How Can I Make Returns or Rewards on My Crypto?
🫱 Read more here
JPY Faces Further Downside as DXY Surges on Powell's RemarksThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen sharply, nearing the 101.00 level, in response to recent comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell’s remarks signaled that while the Fed remains cautious about future rate cuts, any adjustments would be gradual, contributing to the strengthening of the US Dollar. This move has had ripple effects across currency pairs, most notably with the Japanese Yen (JPY), which has begun a reversal from a key supply area that was identified in our analysis last week.
The price action of the JPY has played out as anticipated, with the pair hitting our first take profit target. The reversal came as the US Dollar gained momentum, pushing the Yen lower. You can view the previous analysis that accurately predicted this movement in the following idea:
As we look ahead to the upcoming trading sessions, a potential for further bearish momentum in the JPY is on the horizon. The next significant catalysts for the market will be today’s release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data from the US. Should these reports come in stronger than expected, it could fuel another bullish impulse for the US Dollar, potentially driving the DXY higher and triggering further downside for the Yen.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a critical indicator of the health of the US manufacturing sector, and positive results would signal continued economic expansion, lending further strength to the Dollar. The JOLTS Job Openings data, which provides insight into labor market conditions, will also be closely watched. A strong labor market reading would add to the case for the Fed to take a measured approach to rate cuts, reinforcing the current bullish sentiment surrounding the USD.
Given these dynamics, traders should remain alert for the possibility of a fresh bearish wave in the JPY, especially if the US economic data reinforces the current narrative of USD strength. The technical setup from last week’s supply area continues to offer a solid framework for managing positions, with further take profit levels within reach should the bearish trend in the Yen persist.
In conclusion, the DXY’s rise near 101.00, supported by Powell’s comments, has already triggered a significant move in the JPY, and the upcoming ISM and JOLTS data could provide additional fuel for further bearish action. Traders should keep an eye on key levels and be prepared for another bearish impulse in the JPY if the USD continues its upward march.
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JAPAN as a HERO? UP! GOKU Last Fight! JAPAN is the last one to join the party! The final fight for the #BlowoffTop.
Why is this so important? If you look at correlations with BTC, global liquidity, China, the Fed’s interest rates, and more, Japan plays a key role. After China, Japan is the next to wake up and give the final push to this Bull Market.
The last time the Nikkei dropped more than 25% was during the COVID crash. What happened next? It rallied 26% in the first 52 days and extended its Bull Market to over 88% from the bottom.
With the current Carry Trade crisis (still unresolved), the TVC:NI225 has dropped more than 25% again, and guess what? It’s up 26% in the first 52 days... History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.
It’s feeling like 2017 all over again... What do you think? 🚀📈
USDJPY - Tape Reading (2nd Oct 2024)In this video I read the tape and frame a trade using ICT Concepts.
The trade is based off of a +BB 7h. First target is the ERL, second target is a discretionary Premium Array high. I believe I could target a decent amount higher than this, but I prefer the very high-probability targets based on my setups.
Thanks for watching. You may have to skip some parts where I am away from the keyboard whilst price prints.
- R2F
USDJPY - Short Trade Idea This is a short trade idea on the USDJPY pair.
Recently, we traded into a 4M and 11M BISI, had a nice reaction to a Premium Array, now we had a breakdown again. Because of the Japanese Central Bank's decision to increase interest rates, I am expecting price to take a further nose dive. I have 2 targets based on my profit-taking criteria. 1st is the swing low as a Discount Array, and 2nd/final target is a 2D BISI below some relative equal lows.
Depending on where price closes today, I would be anticipating price to trade back up into a 2D iFVG that was a previous R2F signature BISI on the 2D timeframe. Safest stoploss before invalidating the trade is at the swing high before the sudden dump at Japan election news.
Let's see!
- R2F
Hedging Yen amid bullish Nikkei outlook? The Nikkei-225 is trading near 40,000 once more. The sharp decline in early August due to the BoJ rate hike has been swiftly reversed. The outlook for the Nikkei remains bullish with continued investor interest driven by market reforms as well as foreign investor interest.
With the BoJ currently on pause and signalling no urgency to raise rates further, the Nikkei appears poised to retest its all-time high set in July. However, the significant influence of monetary policy on the Yen makes it advantageous to hedge a Nikkei position with a long Yen position. This approach offers similar upside potential while reducing downside risk.
BOJ ON HOLD FOLLOWING FALLOUT FROM RATE HIKE
The BoJ decided to maintain rates at 0.25% during its September 20 meeting. Their statement indicated that the economy is on a recovery path aligned with the BoJ's mandate, upgrading its assessment of consumption from a "resilient trend" in July to a "moderate increasing trend."
Governor Ueda noted that the recent yen strengthening is reducing inflationary pressures, signalling positive trends for the economy in line with the BoJ's mandate.
During the September 20 meeting, he reiterated that the BoJ would not raise rates amid market instability, which they attribute to recession risks in the U.S.
This cautious approach likely results from the fallout after the BoJ raised rates to a 15-year high at its July 31 meeting. This decision triggered a sharp yen appreciation and a significant unwind of the yen carry trade, leading to a global decline in equities fuelled by fear. The Nikkei-225 dropped over 20% in the following week, erasing all gains made in 2024.
MARKET STABILITY ANOTHER CONCERN FOR BOJ
The BoJ's policy mandate focuses on achieving sustainable economic growth through wage growth and consumption while maintaining a stable 2% inflation rate. Under Governor Ueda's leadership, the BoJ aims for a neutral policy rate that is neither overly restrictive nor too accommodative, indicating that rates must increase from their current excessively loose levels.
However, following the market reaction to the July 31 policy meeting, the BoJ faces an additional mandate: balancing its monetary policy trajectory with the risks of market volatility and its effects on business stability.
This additional mandate introduces a complex variable into the BoJ’s monetary policy balancing act, making it prudent for the BoJ to wait and assess the effects of policy changes. As Governor Ueda stated during the policy announcement, "We can afford to spend some time in making a policy decision."
The BoJ has two remaining policy meetings scheduled for 2024: October 30 and December 18. Following Governor Ueda's recent statement highlighting risks from market volatility, analysts unanimously agreed that September policy meeting would not result in a hike but majority still expect another hike by the end of the year.
With the recent encouraging inflation prints, BoJ has room to hike rates towards the end of the year.
PAUSE RATHER THAN HALT
The decision to maintain rates may signal a pause rather than a halt to rate hikes.
Governor Ueda indicated in an August parliamentary hearing that the BoJ would continue to raise rates if economic data aligns with expectations. With inflation around the target range, BoJ has room to raise rates further.
Additionally, the recent election concluded with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the next Prime Minister. The former defense minister has backed the BoJ's rate hike strategy and expressed concerns about yen depreciation. His leadership may foster political support for further rate increases in Japan.
Finally, recession fears in the US are subsiding with recent jobs data and GDP figures above expectations. This may help ease market instability concerns for the BoJ.
JAPAN EQUITIES REMAIN COMPELLING, ATTRACTING INFLOWS
Japan equities remain compelling for foreign investors. The TSE’s recent market reforms have led to a material improvement in the firm’s balance sheets with higher utilization of capital in the form of both returns to shareholders and capital expenditure.
Furthermore, Japan equities remains undervalued despite the massive improvement in valuations this year. While, the P/B ratio for Nikkei-225 has increased from 1.75 to 1.93 over the past year, the P/E ratio has remained largely unchanged at 20.88 (compared to 19.38 last year). The much unchanged P/E ratio reflects the strong earnings growth despite the 23% rally in the index.
The potential undervaluation has attracted global value investors including Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet has built up large positions in Japanese trading houses with the value totalling nearly USD 25 billion as of 12/June. Buffet has previously opted to increase stakes in these investments when they traded at P/E similar to the level during the downturn in August.
Furthermore, YTD inflows into Nomura Nikkei 225 Fund (NTETF) have totalled USD 891 million. While the fund is only available OTC in the US, it is one of the largest Japan equity ETF with USD 71 billion in AUM. Notably, inflows into the ETF have been concentrated after large declines this year suggesting investors are using decline in price to increase positions.
CHINA STIMULUS ADDS FURTHER WIND IN NIKKEI SAILS
The announcement of the massive stimulus package in China last week has supported most Asian equity markets with the rising tide of Chinese equities rippling through Japanese equities.
As the positive sentiment in China continues, other Asian indices are likely to benefit too.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The Nikkei-225 is supported by strong tailwinds including market reforms that support foreign investment and a positive sentiment in Asia equities.
However, given the market reaction to the previous BoJ rate hike, monetary policy and Yen moves remain a pertinent concern for the Nikkei.
Nikkei and Yen are inversely correlated. The correlation is particularly tight during periods of Nikkei decline.
With the Yen remaining volatile from the impact of monetary policy, hedging a long position in Nikkei-225 with a long position in the JPYUSD is prudent.
A combined position of being long on both the Nikkei-225 and the Yen has delivered similar gains to a long position in the Nikkei-225 over the past three months. However, the combined position has also offered crucial downside protection, outperforming during periods of market decline.
The Yen remains on an uptrend, supported by both a weakening dollar from Fed rate cuts and a strengthening yen from BoJ rate hikes.
A position consisting of long CME Nikkei (USD) futures can be combined with a position consisting of 2 x long CME Japanese Yen futures to roughly balance notional across both legs. Investors can also deploy 21 x long CME Micro JPY/USD futures to balance notional more closely. CME provides margin offset amounting to 35% as of 27/Sept for this trade which reduces margin requirements from USD 18,720 to USD 12,168.
A hypothetical trade setup consisting of long 1 x CME Nikkei (USD) December futures and long 21 x CME Micro JPY/USD December futures offering reward to risk ratio of 1.43x is provided below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
HeartCore Enterprises Inc. (NASDAQ: HTCR) | A Rising Player in DHeartCore Enterprises Inc. (HTCR) is a global digital transformation company offering businesses cutting-edge software and services to help them go fully digital. Whether a company needs to upgrade its digital infrastructure or enhance operational efficiency, HeartCore provides the tools and expertise to get the job done.
A Global Reach with Strong Foundations
Founded in Japan, HeartCore has expanded its operations globally, with subsidiaries in the USA, Canada, the Netherlands, India, and Vietnam. This global presence allows them to serve a wide range of clients, helping businesses worldwide embrace digital transformation. Their Vietnam-based subsidiary, HeartCore LUVINA Vietnam, specialises in offshore development of CMS (Content Management System) products, which further broadens their service offerings.
Financial Highlights
HeartCore’s strong financial performance stands out, especially when considering its year-over-year revenue growth of 147.73% in 2023. The company is clearly on an upward trajectory, with its current stock pivot at $0.69, and resistance levels at $0.82 and $0.95, suggesting potential further growth. Investors looking for stability will also be pleased with HeartCore's 5.80% dividend yield (TTM), making it an attractive option for those seeking returns along with growth.
HeartCore Financial and IPO Services
Aside from its core digital transformation business, HeartCore has diversified its offerings through HeartCore Financial, which provides Nasdaq IPO consultation via its "Go IPO" service. This service helps businesses navigate the complex process of going public, leveraging HeartCore’s own experience as a Nasdaq-listed company. By guiding other companies through IPOs, HeartCore has created an additional revenue stream and built strong relationships in the business world.
Why HeartCore?
For investors, diversification is key, and HeartCore exemplifies this strategy with its mix of digital transformation services and financial consulting. Their ability to offer both technical and financial solutions gives them a competitive edge, making them resilient to market fluctuations. With a strong client base, diverse revenue streams, and a growing global presence, HeartCore is well-positioned to continue its upward trend.
In summary, HeartCore Enterprises is a company on the rise, offering innovative digital solutions across the globe while helping other companies succeed in the Nasdaq IPO journey. With strong financials and a global footprint, it’s definitely a stock worth watching for both growth and income-focused investors.
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024)
As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action.
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy
In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
3. Safe Haven Demand Waning
The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment.
4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising
Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases.
5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback.
6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week
Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair.
Conclusion
Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance.
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USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch.USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch (20/09/2024)
As we analyze the USD/JPY pair on 20/09/2024, the outlook appears to be slightly bullish for this week and next. Several key drivers are pushing the U.S. dollar higher against the Japanese yen, creating an attractive opportunity for traders. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental factors behind this forecast and highlight the elements influencing USD/JPY price action in the coming days.
1. US Dollar Strength Bolsters USD/JPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor contributing to the bullish bias in USD/JPY. With the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, the greenback remains in demand. Fed officials have recently emphasized their concerns about persistent inflation, leading markets to believe that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer than previously expected.
This hawkish monetary stance, coupled with strong economic data, has made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. As a result, USD/JPY has been moving higher, with the strong dollar likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the pair.
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2. Dovish Bank of Japan Keeps the Yen Weak
On the other side of the equation, the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown no signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term, despite global inflationary trends. Japan’s central bank continues to prioritize economic support, maintaining low interest rates while avoiding any drastic policy shifts.
This dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This is a major driver of USD/JPY’s bullish outlook, as investors gravitate towards the higher-yielding U.S. dollar over the lower-yielding yen.
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3. Interest Rate Differentials Favor USD/JPY Upside
One of the most important factors pushing USD/JPY higher is the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive, the yield on Japanese government bonds remains low due to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance. This gap in yields makes the U.S. dollar more appealing for investors seeking better returns.
The widening interest rate gap is a key bullish signal for USD/JPY, as capital continues to flow into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone, and the BoJ remains accommodative, this dynamic will likely support the bullish bias for USD/JPY.
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4. Japanese Economic Weakness Adding Pressure on the Yen
Another factor supporting the bullish bias for USD/JPY is the ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy. Japan has struggled with slow economic growth and weak inflation, further justifying the BoJ’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Domestic consumption remains low, and Japan’s economic recovery has been uneven.
As a result, the Japanese yen continues to face downside pressure, while the U.S. dollar benefits from stronger economic fundamentals. This divergence between the U.S. and Japanese economies adds to the case for a stronger USD/JPY in the coming weeks.
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5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is showing signs of further upside. The pair has been testing key resistance levels, and if these levels are broken, we could see a more significant bullish move. The recent price action has shown strength, with USD/JPY consistently finding support at higher lows.
Traders should watch for a potential breakout above these resistance zones, as it could signal further gains for USD/JPY. With strong fundamentals supporting the pair, the technical outlook aligns with the overall bullish bias.
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Conclusion: Bullish Bias Expected for USD/JPY
In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors support a slightly bullish bias for USD/JPY over the next couple of weeks. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, favorable interest rate differentials, and Japan’s economic challenges all point towards further upside potential for USD/JPY.
Traders and investors should closely monitor these key drivers as they make their trading decisions. As always, staying updated on central bank policies, economic data, and technical signals will be crucial in navigating the USD/JPY price action during this period.
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JPY Futures Drop as Fed Rate Cut Speculation GrowsJPY futures have fallen below the 0.007134 level, driven by rising speculation of significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. As market participants brace for potential monetary easing, the U.S. dollar has faced increased pressure, leading to weakness across several pairs, including JPY. Investors expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by up to 100 basis points by the end of the year, which has become a key factor influencing the broader currency market.
Key Market Dynamics: Fed and BoJ Rate Expectations
The growing belief that the Federal Reserve will pursue aggressive rate cuts has been weighing heavily on the U.S. dollar, with many anticipating a softer policy stance in response to slowing economic growth and inflation concerns. This dovish outlook has provided some support for the yen, even as Japan’s economic conditions remain stable.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its interest rates steady at 0.25% when it meets on Friday. While the BoJ has been cautious with rate adjustments, keeping its ultra-low rate policy in place, the potential disparity between the Fed’s and BoJ’s stances could further impact JPY futures in the coming days.
Technical Outlook: Rebound from Supply Area Signals Bearish Sentiment
From a technical perspective, JPY futures have rebounded off a key supply area, a zone that has previously acted as resistance. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report paints a divided picture, with retail traders showing extreme bullishness on the yen, suggesting expectations of further strength. However, institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” remain strongly bearish on the currency, signaling their belief that the recent uptick may be short-lived.
This divergence in sentiment provides a clear opportunity for a short position, as the bearish outlook from institutional players suggests that the yen could face downward pressure once the initial bullish momentum subsides.
Looking Ahead: Short Position Setup
Given the current technical setup and the wider macroeconomic backdrop, we are positioning for a short trade on JPY futures. With the price having already bounced off a significant supply area and smart money positioning heavily on the bearish side, a reversal looks increasingly likely. Furthermore, if the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts materialize, the U.S. dollar could stabilize or even rebound, adding further downside pressure to JPY futures.
In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's respective decisions, as they will be the critical drivers of yen movement in the short term.
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USD/JPY: Reversal Signal or More Downside? The Japanese yen has tested prices below 141, an eight-month low for the pair. But eventually pulled back above 142. From a technical perspective, this long wick might look to some traders to be the start of a small reversal before its eventual sojourn lower.
Rom a fundamental perspective, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a few hours ago lower than expected. Which means the US Federal Reserve might forgo a 50bps cut in favor of a 25bps next week. This might help support the US dollar in the face of yen strength. Now we have US Producer Price Index (PPI) to look forward to on Thursday.
The Yen against Euro could be interesting to keep an eye on too in the lead up to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate to 3.5% from 3.75%.
GBPJPY | Trade ideaOn Tuesday, the yen gained support as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a hawkish stance, indicating the central bank might raise rates further if the economy meets expectations. Ueda’s comments were part of a document presented to a government panel led by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, where he detailed the BOJ’s July policy decision. His remarks emphasized that despite global market volatility, partly triggered by the BOJ's July rate hike, Ueda remains committed to raising borrowing costs if the bank’s projections are realized.