Japan
PULLBACK ZONE FOR SHORT DIRECTION ENTRY - SFTBY - SOFTBANK - 4HThank you for the like, comments and shares! Much appreciated! This is not financial advise, just ideas on probable market evolution.
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The trend has probably changed as the very strong blue up trending line has been frankly and strongly broken.
The price is now evolving under the bearish channel. This might be a sign that the bearish action is possibly still going on.
We see an horizontal zone emerging, showing a potential pullback zone and good entry for a short direction positions.
The black line can possibly be the target price as it is an historical center of gravity like price.
A probable idea would be to wait for pullback and get a short entry, and, as we approach the black horizontal line, we lower our position weight by taking profits.
probably good to lower exposition if having already bought up there.. it probably can become worse.
PS.:
Hope is there, because following fundamental analysis, we can see that SoftBank is pretty active and doing very strategic investments. Are the latest's SoftBank investments to be copied to improve portfolio experience ? Robotics, Communications, Uber.... etc..
Is the black line the best place to enter from for a long direction entry and for long time ? (with the probability that in the near future the price of SoftBank stock will rise to record numbers)
Keep it simple and buy ToyotaNot much to say here other than Toyota is 100x better than Tesla in everything. Personally I don't believe that a company who has a CEO like Elon will ever be successful, so I'd rather buy the most successful company out there that just had a major breakout. Definitely one of the most bullish stocks out there.
PERFECT H&S Pattern and a great sell opportunityDear fellas,
I've been following JP225USD for a while and it has just bounced off strong resistance around 28350 and it has formed a very clear H&S pattern. This is a high probability trade with a small risk. SL should ideally be above Head (28500).
Target: 26760
SL: 28550
Good Luck and trade safe!
Japan Economy could spike?We are retesting now a 25-year-old resistance level and it's a big opportunity to ride the next Japanese economy cycle.
I don't want to get into the macro-economy details, I am only focused on unbiased TA and for me, this can be a good buy opportunity if the resistance becomes a support, at least the RR looks awesome.
About the ETF, this IShares is the largest one and the one of the oldest, so I think it's a good one to use to invest in this possible growing economy....
HOLDINGS:
Toyota Motor Corp
SoftBank Group Corp
Sony Group Corp
Keyence Corp
Tokyo Electron Ltd
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc
Nintendo Co Ltd
Recruit Holdings Co Ltd
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
NIKKEI225 SellPrice has broken out of the weekly uptrend and is descending towards the weekly support zone.
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VDJP Weekly - Testing major support (IH&S neckline)In February I highlighted the bearish RSI divergence and said I would like to accumulate around 25. Frustratingly I was too impulsive and started averaging in too soon. This ETF is now at a make or break level on the weekly - either we get a successful bounce and re-test of the neckline here OR it was a false break higher that sucked in the bulls (like me). Time will tell - with stop losses at the ready.
BUY TWITTER or keep in te wallet/ACHETER ou Garder English:
CHALLENGE EVERY DAY ONE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR A MONTH DON'T FORGET TO SUBSCRIBE AND PUT A LIKE
Hello everyone, according to my graphical analysis of TWITTER , there is a high probability of an increase. Brcause THE MARKET WILL TRY TO CLOSE THE GAB , THERE IS NO SIGNE OF SELL SO BUY
Français
DEFI CHAQUE JOUR UNE ANALYSE TECHNIQUE PENDANT UN MOIS N'OUBLIEZ PAS DE VOUS ABBONEZ ET DE METRRE UN LIKE
Bonjour à tous, d'après mon analyse graphique PAYPAL , il y a une forte probabilité d'augmentation parce que . IL A PASS DE SIGNE DE VENTE EN PLUS LE MARCHÉ NA PAS DOONER AUCUN SIGNAL DE VENTE DONC LE MARCHÉ ESSAIERA DE COMBLER L'ECART EN ACHETE
BUY PAYPAL or keep in te wallet/ACHETER ou Garder Hello everyone, according to my graphical analysis of PAYPAL , there is a high probability of an increase.we are on the last straight line
Bonjour à tous, d'après mon analyse graphique PAYPAL , il y a une forte probabilité d'augmentation on est sur la derniere ligne droit
CHFJPY SELL Hi All,
Updated analysis on this pair. Further studies shows we are still very much inside an rectangle range from Dec 2013 till Date April 2021. Price Broken this range only in 2014-2015 and ever since price has been stuck inside the range with Buyer and sellers battling out. I'm on the Bearish Camp and have been since Early 2021. If our forecast is accurate then by 2022-2023 Price should test the bottom of the range and with that said we are happy to open our portfolio to trade this forecast.
Entry and Sl Marked FYI However adjustment would be necessary only when price break the range and retest the range !
Many Thanks
JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook
As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook.
2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y
As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. However, from the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continues to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put downside pressure on the JPY.
JPY - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: Outlined in the Bank of Japan Act 1942, the purpose of the BoJ is to issue bank notes and to carry out currency and monetary control. The Act defines monetary control through achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy.As of 2013, the BoJ has defined price stability as a 2% year-on-year rate of change in CPI.
As of February, Nationwide inflation in Japan stands at -0.4%; although Tokyo CPI for March printed at -0.2%. The BoJ have failed to reach their inflation target since inflation plummeted to 0.6% from 2.3% in April 2015. Since then, Japan's highest reading was 1.5% in February 2018.
Situation: At their March meeting, the BoJ kept the Policy Rate unchanged at -0.10% and maintained the long-term yield target at 0%; although, they did raise the target band for yields, allowing yields to now fluctuate by +/-25bps from target.
Governor Kuroda added, he does not this it is impossible to deepen negative rates and the steps taken will allow the BoJ more flexibility to deepen negative rates.
JPY - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY.
Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current environment given the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and global economic slowdown.
The market's overall risk tone is cautiously improving with coronavirus vaccines in the very early stages of being rolled out in several countries. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight second waves of the virus.
Nevertheless, as a whole, the outlook is tentatively improving.
Given the tentatively improving risk outlook, we expect safe-haven demand to gradually diminish in the months ahead, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook.
JPY: Current Sentiment DriversLatest developments:
March 19 – BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.10% and the 10 year yield target unchanged at 0%. However, the central bank did raise the target band for yields, allowing them to fluctuate by +/-25bps from target.
March 18 – National CPI for February printed at -0.4% Y/Y for both the headline and core measure, compared to -0.6% for both measures in January.
February 14 – Preliminary GDP for Q4 printed at 3.0% Q/Q and 127% Q/Q Annualised, compared to 5.3% and 22.9% prior, respectively.
Future Sentiment Shifts:
JPY notably strengthened throughout the coronavirus pandemic as markets remained firmly risk off to the benefit of safe havens. Although market sell offs have long since subsided, significant risks still remain as many notable countries continue to fight second waves.
The coronavirus global economic outlook will remain heavily influential to JPY, with the currency likely to once again see a renewed bid from the rising number of second waves and their implications for the global economy.
Primary Drivers:
Risk Tone – With a consistently positive current account and incredibly low interest rates in Japan, JPY has become synonymous with the term safe haven. As the world’s leading creditor nation, times of uncertainty results in repatriation flows, supporting JPY. At the same time, as investors often use JPY as a funding currency due to Japan’s low interest rates, investors are often forced to buy JPY to close their risky positions when market’s shift to risk off, further supporting the currency.
JPY - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY.
Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current environment given the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and global economic slowdown.
The market's overall risk tone is cautiously improving with coronavirus vaccines in the very early stages of being rolled out in several countries. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight second waves of the virus.
Nevertheless, as a whole, the outlook is tentatively improving.
Given the tentatively improving risk outlook, we expect safe-haven demand to gradually diminish in the months ahead, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook.
Suez Canal FiascoWe've all heard about the big ass ship stuck in Egypt's Suez Canal last week. On Tuesday morning (3/23) the 'Ever-Given' vessel, leased by Taiwanese Company EVERGREEN; was caught up in a 'Darude-like' sandstorm causing over 10 billion in damages so far and unforetold shipping delays.
The Suez accounts for 30% of imports coming into Europe from Asia. There are currently 150+ container ships caught in this costly traffic jam, where the estimated costs of waiting are upwards of $400Million/hour according to various news sources.
Looking for ways to capitalize on News events? If you have access to Asian markets; take some shorts on lease owner EVERGREEN 2603. They had positive reported earning on Monday just one day before the shitstorm and there's a definite shift in momentum back to 30-lvl support.
Also consider short positions in the vessel owner; Japanese Shoei Kisen KK. UK P&I Club Insurance is meant to cover pollution and injury, not cover hundreds of lawsuits for this costly conundrum..
Let's get it!
static01.nyt.com
5 things you need to know about BOJ's Monetary Policy Meeting1. Yields: Continued to peg 10-year JGB yield at "around zero", but widened the trading bond of 10-year JGB to plus minus 0.25%
2. Purchase of ETF: Ditched its 6 trillion yen guide for annual purchases of ETF , however, it will continue to buy equities as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen.
3. Interest Scheme to Promote Lending: Established the scheme as an incentive to financial institutions' currenc account balances. The applied interest rates will be linked to the short-term policy interest rate.
4. Short-term policy interest rate: Applied a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the Policy-Rate Balances
5. Inflation-overshooting commitment: The Bank commited to cotinuing to expand the monetary base until the YOY increase of CPI exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent.
MM Analysis
The NI225 dropped by almost 1.5% followed by the BOJ's announcement of scraping the ¥6tn guideline and widending the trading bond of 10-year JGB. While we believe, the BOJ's recents move attempted to conduct the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy more flexibily, keep an eye on the inflation!
BA Breakout Price Targets with potential breakdown levelsIf Boeing can stay away from bad news and regain the ascending channel , it should continue to test the top-side of the above channel as resistance .
My thoughts are that potential breakdowns may occur after a failure to test the top-side resistance of the ascending channel . Or after its 3rd test of the top-side resistance of the channel .
With good news and Japan continuing to buy equities rather than debt , I don't see it being out of the question for BA to break that top-side trendline resistance and reach the previous all-time-high trend demand zone into the mid $290s