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INDEX and JPY - A CLOSE RELATIONThats a big text but may add something to your knowledge about how the markets work. I will explain a the reasons that made me confident about all those JPY trades, and that was the STOCK MARKETS. I'm a full-time trader on the Brazilian stock market, it has some peculiarities right now, with all the political noise we are having here. But my knowledge regarding stock markets also helps when trading Forex, as I need to analyse all major indexes, mainly Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500), which are the main indexes of the world economy. Those last days they seem to be so weak, not managing to break resistances and making lower lows since the top of the pullback on the end of April. It was ranging in what seems like a drift pattern, around the 61.8% Fibonacci zone of the whole crash. I think that know we can confirm this break. That being said, let's head to the JPY situation. Japan is one of the most stable economies on the world. And most trusted too. Linking that to Forex, their currency, JPY, is considered a "SAFE HEAVEN". It means that it is often used as a secure currency, safe place to put your money in on RISKY TIMES on the financial markets. And that's exactly what we are seeing right now. As more people wants to get in JPY, the xxx/JPY pairs tend to move to the downside. When the JPY pairs had all the same setup, testing the trendlines , I went in. And that was one more signal that the stock markets were about to melt: people running to buy JPY. Banks and big players always are positioning themselves looking at the big moves coming. They were buying JPY just before the stocks fall, and that can be seen on the charts. With all those confirmations, I'm still holding the trades right now and will update here and in my Telegram channel if I think prices directions may change. But, for now, no sign of reverse on the stock markets. At least, I expect it to go to the 38.2% retracement as drawn in the chart. Keep and eye on the channel and my profile for updates, I will be trying to help as much as I can and show my positions. If you liked it, please leave a like for me to know if I should make more of this. And, of course, recommend to your friends. Good luck on trading and KEEP SAFE.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Thomas_Juchem
The halving... in perspective. and theory. why does asia sell?We know halving is block rewards cut in half for miners. (do we acknowledge the price still will not be affected until miners refuse to sell for low prices? In my title I mispoke. They do not actually want to dump it. they want to sell into it as much as the others will buy. Are miners selling? well we can see asian sessions are full of selling 9/10 times. most miners an. d whales are in asia and inverse to london and usa bullish sessions. . If I were a miner. I would not hodl when there is plenty of liquidity from people raving about the halving taking us to the moon. (in perspective. the last 2 halving had a prepump high... then a dump to retest lows just before the event. So far an identical pattern and look.) 3rd times a charm? Why would miners sell though? It is their business. times are tough for all and bigger miners can afford to sell much lower than smaller miners. They can effectively run them out of the market for the future competiti.on of the reduced rewards. They could later easily insght a true bull market but rebuying at the bottom. This is just food for thought. I am just spinning my wheels. one thing I am sure of though. bitcoin has always been a contrarion mover. Bakkt/china/consensus/ - dump it. Iran war. pandemic. tether finex FCC case - pump it. Crazy bitcoin. just crazy. maybe it is true what they say about the psychology after all. Good luck. have fun
DERIBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Gunslinger2005
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.04.15A good time to update the USDJPY chart as things are changing very quickly. Here you will notice risk-sentiment starting to take another turn for the worse, meaning we are again entering into a very advanced playing field and a short-term nimble approach is pragmatic and necessary to survive at these levels. The relentless stream of bad news on the virus front keeps coming and another round of bankruptcies looks set to take charge across the board…. It is entering into the picture as lockdowns in Europe and US look set to extend till June/July which will squeeze Small & Medium sized firms that wont be able to survive for much more than a couple weeks. A few of scenarios we need to track on the Fundamental side: 1️⃣ Bullish Case - Northern Hemisphere curve flattening with US and Europe opening early June. Will trigger direct legs back towards all time highs across the board in Equities. ( 22% odds ) 2️⃣ Inline Case - US and Europe opening in July with clear preparations for further rounds of social distancing programs that will come into play again at year-end through Q1 2021 as the virus migrates back in the Winter months. Opens up another calculated leg down in risk markets to sweep the current floor in place and early buyers. ( 64% odds ) 3️⃣ Bearish Case - How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc… If ‘business as usual’ does not return as masses remain afraid then we can enter into a depression ( 14% odds ) For the technical flows ... over the coming session all eyes are on the key 107.0x support !! ... After it managed to hold todays London and NY sessions it is screaming loudly that USD demand remains prevalent and shows no signs of abating. Initial targets over the coming sessions at 108.3x and 109.3x, to the downside invalidation of the view will come from a breach of 106.9x as it will trigger a momentum move that is also very tradable towards 104.5x. We will have fresh round of DXY and other G10 chart updates coming tomorrow, highly recommend all digging into the details of the flows as the ranges are very wide. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
NIKKEI 225 - new highs aheadNikkeI index has shown indication that it had finished primary wave 4 and it's beginning primary 5 up, which is a nice impulse wave to be in. Primary wave 5 should push the index to levels higher than the previous primary wave 3 during the next couple of years. In the short-term, NikkeI is beginning minute wave 3 up in a good point of entry. An alternative scenario can command if the index fall below the low of primary wave 4. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
TVC:NI225Long
by SkylinePro
4
NIKKEI 225 - more than 10% gains in next 10 daysIn our previous post of April 5, we anticipated a rebound in NI225 after the completion of primary wave 4 that would led to a steady growth ahead. Since then the index increased more than 7% and the odds increased that intermediate wave 1 is under way up. The index completed minor wave 2 and it is now tracing the longest and strongest wave of this degree. The next target should be around 22,000 (12% gains) and take up to 10 days to reach it. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
TVC:NI225Long
by SkylinePro
This Country’s Stock Market Is Ready To OutperformDiversification is one of the keys to growing and preserving wealth. Putting all of your eggs in one basket (pun intended) can be dangerous. Luckily, diversifying your investment portfolio has never been easier. There are more than 7,000 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide investors with exposure to various markets and asset classes across the globe (international stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc.). For investors that want to diversify their stock portfolios outside of the U.S., Japanese (ticker: EWJ) stocks represent an interesting buying opportunity. While stock buybacks have slowed significantly among U.S. corporations in 2020 (down 25%), they’ve surged in Japan, rising 48% this year. Nonfinancial firms have around 285 trillion yen ($2.6 trillion) in currency and deposits (highest level in two decades). Japanese companies have increased their cash stockpile by ~100 trillion yen (33%) over the last decade, suggesting that corporations have plenty of room to continue returning capital to shareholders over the next few years. In addition, the valuation of Japanese stocks is attractive relative to the U.S. The price to earnings ratio on Japanese stocks is ~15x vs. ~17x multiple on U.S. equities. Furthermore, investors are underinvested in Japanese equities. Over the last 5 years, investors have sold ~16 trillion yen worth of Japanese stock, after plowing ~25 trillion yen into Japenese stocks between 2012 and 2015. If (when) investors begin reinvesting funds to the region, Japenese stocks will receive a boost. Japanese companies have increased their profitability. Profits as a percentage of sales have doubled from 4% to 8% over the last five years. More importantly, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the only developed country central bank that is actively involved in purchasing stocks. The BOJ is a top ten shareholder of more than 50% of publicly traded companies and has no plans of slowing down. In fact, early this month BOJ extended and doubled its purchases of Japanese ETFs- lifting its annual target of 6 trillion yen ($57 billion) to 12 trillion ($114 billion) as part of their aggressive monetary policy. This will continue driving demand (buying) for Japanese equities going forward. Lastly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently announced a ~$1 trillion (108 trillion yen) stimulus package. This is equal to 20% of Japan’s national GDP. Compared to the U.S. stimulus package of $2.2 trillion, which equates to only ~10% of GDP. This significant fiscal stimulus will support the Japanese economy as it deals with the coronavirus. Among other things, the government will provide more than $55 billion in cash payments to families and small and medium-sized businesses and $240 billion in interest-free loans. Japanese companies have strong balance sheets and our returning large amounts of capital to shareholders, in addition, Japanese fiscal and monetary is the most aggressive in the world. All of the necessary ingredients for Japanese stocks to move higher are in place. It’s time investors placed their (buy) order. -Appo Agbamu, CFA Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Please do your own research.
AMEX:EWJLong
by AhrvoStockApp
EURJPY All Technicals ExplainedWow. There are so many interesting things going on here from a technical analysis perspective. First of all, EURJPY has been inside an ascending triangle. This is usually a bullish pattern. The price closed right on the edge near the bottom support trendline, but then as soon as the markets opened it looked like the price was going to adhere to the triangle. However, soon after a huge spike downwards broke through the bottom support trendline of the triangle and immediately a strong downtrend was observed. Now the price is at the .618 fib retracement and has to make another decision. Will it bounce back up now and continue its uptrend? Or will it come back down and test more serious fib levels such as the .786. Even though the price has dropped a lot recently, I still am bearish here and don't see any technicals to say there is a reversal coming. I am still bearish and expect the price to drop further. There is a bit of support on the .618 from prices earlier around 6th and 7th of April, so we can wait first to see if the prices drop below that. If they do, I think we can expect a longer downturn. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
3