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ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.04.15A good time to update the USDJPY chart as things are changing very quickly. Here you will notice risk-sentiment starting to take another turn for the worse, meaning we are again entering into a very advanced playing field and a short-term nimble approach is pragmatic and necessary to survive at these levels. The relentless stream of bad news on the virus front keeps coming and another round of bankruptcies looks set to take charge across the board…. It is entering into the picture as lockdowns in Europe and US look set to extend till June/July which will squeeze Small & Medium sized firms that wont be able to survive for much more than a couple weeks. A few of scenarios we need to track on the Fundamental side: 1️⃣ Bullish Case - Northern Hemisphere curve flattening with US and Europe opening early June. Will trigger direct legs back towards all time highs across the board in Equities. ( 22% odds ) 2️⃣ Inline Case - US and Europe opening in July with clear preparations for further rounds of social distancing programs that will come into play again at year-end through Q1 2021 as the virus migrates back in the Winter months. Opens up another calculated leg down in risk markets to sweep the current floor in place and early buyers. ( 64% odds ) 3️⃣ Bearish Case - How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc… If ‘business as usual’ does not return as masses remain afraid then we can enter into a depression ( 14% odds ) For the technical flows ... over the coming session all eyes are on the key 107.0x support !! ... After it managed to hold todays London and NY sessions it is screaming loudly that USD demand remains prevalent and shows no signs of abating. Initial targets over the coming sessions at 108.3x and 109.3x, to the downside invalidation of the view will come from a breach of 106.9x as it will trigger a momentum move that is also very tradable towards 104.5x. We will have fresh round of DXY and other G10 chart updates coming tomorrow, highly recommend all digging into the details of the flows as the ranges are very wide. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
NIKKEI 225 - new highs aheadNikkeI index has shown indication that it had finished primary wave 4 and it's beginning primary 5 up, which is a nice impulse wave to be in. Primary wave 5 should push the index to levels higher than the previous primary wave 3 during the next couple of years. In the short-term, NikkeI is beginning minute wave 3 up in a good point of entry. An alternative scenario can command if the index fall below the low of primary wave 4. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
TVC:NI225Long
by SkylinePro
4
NIKKEI 225 - more than 10% gains in next 10 daysIn our previous post of April 5, we anticipated a rebound in NI225 after the completion of primary wave 4 that would led to a steady growth ahead. Since then the index increased more than 7% and the odds increased that intermediate wave 1 is under way up. The index completed minor wave 2 and it is now tracing the longest and strongest wave of this degree. The next target should be around 22,000 (12% gains) and take up to 10 days to reach it. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
TVC:NI225Long
by SkylinePro
This Country’s Stock Market Is Ready To OutperformDiversification is one of the keys to growing and preserving wealth. Putting all of your eggs in one basket (pun intended) can be dangerous. Luckily, diversifying your investment portfolio has never been easier. There are more than 7,000 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide investors with exposure to various markets and asset classes across the globe (international stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc.). For investors that want to diversify their stock portfolios outside of the U.S., Japanese (ticker: EWJ) stocks represent an interesting buying opportunity. While stock buybacks have slowed significantly among U.S. corporations in 2020 (down 25%), they’ve surged in Japan, rising 48% this year. Nonfinancial firms have around 285 trillion yen ($2.6 trillion) in currency and deposits (highest level in two decades). Japanese companies have increased their cash stockpile by ~100 trillion yen (33%) over the last decade, suggesting that corporations have plenty of room to continue returning capital to shareholders over the next few years. In addition, the valuation of Japanese stocks is attractive relative to the U.S. The price to earnings ratio on Japanese stocks is ~15x vs. ~17x multiple on U.S. equities. Furthermore, investors are underinvested in Japanese equities. Over the last 5 years, investors have sold ~16 trillion yen worth of Japanese stock, after plowing ~25 trillion yen into Japenese stocks between 2012 and 2015. If (when) investors begin reinvesting funds to the region, Japenese stocks will receive a boost. Japanese companies have increased their profitability. Profits as a percentage of sales have doubled from 4% to 8% over the last five years. More importantly, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the only developed country central bank that is actively involved in purchasing stocks. The BOJ is a top ten shareholder of more than 50% of publicly traded companies and has no plans of slowing down. In fact, early this month BOJ extended and doubled its purchases of Japanese ETFs- lifting its annual target of 6 trillion yen ($57 billion) to 12 trillion ($114 billion) as part of their aggressive monetary policy. This will continue driving demand (buying) for Japanese equities going forward. Lastly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently announced a ~$1 trillion (108 trillion yen) stimulus package. This is equal to 20% of Japan’s national GDP. Compared to the U.S. stimulus package of $2.2 trillion, which equates to only ~10% of GDP. This significant fiscal stimulus will support the Japanese economy as it deals with the coronavirus. Among other things, the government will provide more than $55 billion in cash payments to families and small and medium-sized businesses and $240 billion in interest-free loans. Japanese companies have strong balance sheets and our returning large amounts of capital to shareholders, in addition, Japanese fiscal and monetary is the most aggressive in the world. All of the necessary ingredients for Japanese stocks to move higher are in place. It’s time investors placed their (buy) order. -Appo Agbamu, CFA Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Please do your own research.
AMEX:EWJLong
by AhrvoStockApp
EURJPY All Technicals ExplainedWow. There are so many interesting things going on here from a technical analysis perspective. First of all, EURJPY has been inside an ascending triangle. This is usually a bullish pattern. The price closed right on the edge near the bottom support trendline, but then as soon as the markets opened it looked like the price was going to adhere to the triangle. However, soon after a huge spike downwards broke through the bottom support trendline of the triangle and immediately a strong downtrend was observed. Now the price is at the .618 fib retracement and has to make another decision. Will it bounce back up now and continue its uptrend? Or will it come back down and test more serious fib levels such as the .786. Even though the price has dropped a lot recently, I still am bearish here and don't see any technicals to say there is a reversal coming. I am still bearish and expect the price to drop further. There is a bit of support on the .618 from prices earlier around 6th and 7th of April, so we can wait first to see if the prices drop below that. If they do, I think we can expect a longer downturn. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
3
USDJPY Retracement PossibilitiesWe have some room upward and technically this pair is trying to rebound from higher period SMA 200 RED (dynamic support). Fundamental wise we knew till this day that king didn't wanted to back off! I had earlier created a bullish bias idea on this major pair but I messed up with fast entry as overall I knew from the beginning this was mean to happen ( I mean the continuations upward). Dollar was hiding it's potential from the beginning and until it made mood to fall apart most of counter parts will suffer the pain I reckon.
Long
by Anatta0
1
AUSTRALIAN "ETF" (PACIFIC CURRENCY COMPARISON)FIRST TRUST AUSTRALIA "ETF" Comparison with (local and near) currencies (with left scale details is % change) on Indonesia and Philippines) The specific currencies used in this study are all from “neighbors” and other islands in the Australian area. AUDJPY: Japan AUDHKD: Hong Kong AUDNZD: New Zealand AUDSGD: Singapore AUDCNY: China AUDPHP: Philippines AUDIDR: Indonesia Regarding local currency to the Australian it seems that New Zealand and Australia have kept very close relations finically over the past 10 years. The Australian Currency has been balanced in a unusually stable way with Indonesia and lost a little value with the Philippine Currency. The Australian Currency has weakened by about 25% against the Japanese Currency over the past 10 years even though the Japanese Currency is 100 to 1 or today about 65 to 1 (JPY to AUD). The Chinese Currency was given a ratio of 6 and today is about 4 for Chinese to Australian. However, Chinese Currency has been the most “stable” relative to AUD of all the other major regional currencies in terms of gradual expected changes. Australia has very little “quality forests” relative to China and many other parts of the Pacific Islands and is mostly desert even being contemptibly close to the equator and contemptibly close to so many rich wildlife and tropical nations and underwater “glaciers” like the great barrier reef. Australia maybe has not flooded its full diplomatic relations with the rest of Asia particularly with Singapore and Malaysia however most likely has close unrealized economic links with Indonesia with the relatively stable currency “relationship” of only +/- 10% while seeing a general devaluation against all the other currencies. By working as a “partner” rather than a competitor Australia can help everyone stabilize culturally however, having different “unconnected” indigenous populations may help too create new and different worlds of commerce. The main currencies to watch is actually Japan relative to Australian and also Indonesian and Philippines. The graphs get very complex if you add in Vietnam and Thailand and also Laos and Cambodia however, Vietnam is very important too because of its “extreme low value” and how this helps keep things stable in the mainland and creates a currency bubble for future new currencies. What I liked best was that the ETF’s focus was on utilities and basic materials and not consumer products. It maybe has a slightly higher consumer services than I would like but it is interesting to see the details of the components of FAUS ETF. Basic Materials 21.11% CONSUMER_CYCLICAL 7.57% Financial Services 9.43% Real Estate 16.69% Healthcare 5.77% Utilities 4.31% Communication Services 3.64% Energy 21.25% Industrials 10.22% Technology 0.00% They maybe could invest more into Australian Healthcare, Communications, and Industrials and a little less in Financial Services and possibly into new areas like Import/Export and Shipping because its so important in the ocean. Over the years there has been many fluctuations between 26 and 36 or about 20% year to year (around the sun) and the P/E ratio seems to be a little high a major revaluation of all the companies globally is and was needed. Hope this helps! :)
F
by idasuperman
What's the next move for USDJPY?Hey everyone, as you can see on the chart, USDJPY is at a decent resistance, accompanied by 50 MA and the Gann fan. To me, this signals that we will soon see it bounce off either from our resistance area or the FIb Level, which I believe is more likely. (Also, just a disclaimer, I will try my best to keep you guys updated as if the uptrend is too hard we might form a W shape as well) Feel free to leave your feedback below (not a signal btw, just analysis) cheers, tonite
by tonite
4
Nikkei 225 Possibilities of DowntrendYen is getting nasty leading against the dollar and some comdolls which might create pressure for Nikkie. Japan seeks to quarantine all overseas arrivals for 14 days which might create some issue to the travel and tourism sectors. The likelihood of the manufacturing recession deepening in the coming months is high. The latest data showed a sharp fall in inventories of inputs, which firms are going to find challenging to replenish in order to sustain factory production. Hits multi-year lows from manufacturers and non-manufacturers on today's Tankan reports.
TVC:NI225Short
by Anatta0