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ridethepig | JPY Losing It's "Haven" Status...Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park capital there for the forseeable future. Combining all of this with the technical break of 110.3x which was strong resistance and cascaded macro stops, simply, technicals only added fuel to the fundamental fire. The monthly chart in USDJPY is looking very bullish indeed, with targets up at 149.xx .. this chart is not looking so crazy after all: The same 'E' leg that we traded live together: Most of the sell-side flows in USDJPY were built around coronavirus risk-off sentiment - I recommend bookmarking this breakup as it seems we are dislocating from the traditional JPY safe haven environment. Picking up cheap tactical longs on the day at 111.25 ideally with initial targets located at 111.8x and 112.2x before trailing for the breakup. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
1
USDJPY - Weekly chart Hello everyone Today I was asked by my subscriber to see the USD / JPY chart. I drew attention to the breaking of the resistance line on the weekly chart, which we tested afterwards (this is a break and a test). I also see an inverted head and shoulders pattern - this is a reversal pattern and does look very good. an interesting pattern now is forming in the right shoulder of this pattern - after a impulsed movement we are compressed in a triangle. Consider the formation of the impulse - correction-impulse. I like this weekly chart most of all and the whole picture has been drawn for 22 years, because technical analysis works better on large time frames. I will not analyze fundamental analysis, I will not analyze the Japanese economy and make predictions on it. But just such a picture as I showed, I expect the next few years Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
8
Recession in Japan, China's stimulus and UK’s dataPerhaps the main event and surprise of yesterday were the devastating data on Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter. The country's GDP fell by 1.6% (the forecast was a decline of 0.9%) in terms of q/q and 6.3% in relation to the same quarter last year (the worst result since 2014). This is a very alarming signal for the global economy because Japan is the third-largest economy in the world. And although the reasons for such a failure are generally justified - a destructive typhoon and tax increases, the picture does not become less depressing. Given that China is Japan's largest trading partner, there is every reason to expect weak data in the first quarter of 2020 (consequences of the coronavirus epidemic). Do not forget about the loss of the tourism sector in Japan from China's ban on the travel of citizens. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of tourists from China who were supposed to visit Japan but did not visit with all the ensuing economic consequences. The second consecutive quarter of GDP decline is already officially a recession. That is, what we have been talking about for quite some time in our reviews is beginning to take on an increasingly clear line. What is characteristic, the Japanese yen against the background of such crushing statistics were not exposed to sales. Obviously, the demand for a safe haven asset in her person outweighs the desire to sell the yen to work out weak data. In this light, our desire to buy gold only intensified. Purchases of the Japanese yen, despite such weak data, also look good from current points. China, meanwhile, maybe trying to generate optimism after several weeks of continuous negativity. And this is not only about the statistics on the epidemic, which is beginning to decline but also about the position of the Chinese authorities, who yesterday promised to strengthen the stimulation of the economy in order to compensate for the negative consequences of the coronavirus. It is planned to reduce corporate taxes and increase government spending. Despite this positive, we believe that the damage has already been done and the world economy will still feel it in the first quarter. And the epidemic itself is still ongoing. According to experts, the Chinese economy will return to less or less normal functioning no earlier than in a month. In this regard, we recall our recommendation to sell oil. Demand for oil from China continues to fall, and refinery loading drops at a gigantic pace (at some plants, the decline was 10-20%). According to Citi analysts, the total volume of oil refining in China fell by 2 million barrels per day, while oil demand in China in February may show a decrease of 3.5 million BPD. These are very serious figures for the oil market. So we use any attempts to grow the asset as an occasion for its sales. For the British pound today is a pretty important day in terms of macroeconomic statistics - a block of data on the UK labor market will be published. In the past couple of days, the pound has somewhat lost its fuse, which was received in the form of promises to increase government spending. Today's data can either increase pressure on the pound, or give it the opportunity to return to growth. So we follow the numbers and adjust the positions depending on the nature of the data.
Short
by Trade24Fx
AUD/JPY 1H SHORTThe last 4H candle for audjpy left us with a nice rejection of this 73.405 handle and looking in the 1H we have a really nice 3:1 short setup available for taking depending on where market opens. As i know there are a lot of beginner traders on here I want to make sure that you're aware that these posts are simply ideas... food for thought if you will. You should never enter a trade purely off a chart that you have no idea how to read! Please leave a like and a follow as it really helps me out.
Short
by BenCheungFx
ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Macro MapOn the USD side, we have dollar devaluation in play via Fed flooding the supply side and marking the monthly highs in Dollar: On the JPY side, I am looking for an eventful year on the risk front. Japan will benefit in search of safety with late cycle fears only temporarily abating: On the technical side, for those in a background with waves and wanting to dig deeper into the legs we are trading: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! Thanks for supporting with a like and keeping your ideas and views coming in the comments!
Short
by ridethepig
4
The impasse of monetary policy and the future crisis We have repeatedly noted in our reviews that the historical highs of the US stock market is direct merit of the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Fed. The Central Bank poured money into the US financial market, however, everything that it could achieve was the formation of a record-high bubble in the stock market. So we emphasize the scale of what is happening. The total assets of the three major central banks of the world (Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan) in 2019 reached $ 14.5 trillion, which is 3.5 (!) much more than before the crisis in 2007-2009 (that time assets amounted $ 4 trillion). The fact of growth by 3.5 times is already alarming. In theory, $ 10 trillion should have been aimed at ensuring the growth of the economies of the USA, EU and Japan. But here we have a very serious discrepancy: the GDP of these countries over the same period grew by $ 5.3 trillion. That is, $ 4.7 trillion did not go to the real sector. The question is, where did the $ 4.7 trillion go? The answer is generally obvious - they went to the formation of price bubbles in different markets, mainly in the stock market and corporate debt market. Any attempt to increase the injection of money will lead to further inflation of price bubbles. But what is the Fed doing? Instead of gradually reducing its balance sheet and pumping out "excess" money from the financial markets, in the fall of 2019 the Fed sharply increased its balance and plan to start 2020 with a huge injection of money. At the same time, the ECB continues quantitative easing policy (the Bank of Japan is doing the same). That is, they persistently continue to do what does not work. Obviously, this cannot go on forever. They will have to abandon the flawed plan. This will lead to a sharp drop in demand in the stock market (extra money will go away) and, as a result, a sharp drop in prices. Another important point characterizing the inefficiency of current monetary policies is the extremely deplorable state of the global economy. The forecast for its growth rate in 2019 is 3%. This is much lower than the 40-year average and quite close to the border of 2.5%, which is traditionally associated with the recession phase in the global economy. At the same time, the US economy forecasts growth for 2020 in the region of 2%, the Eurozone and Japan - less than 1%. And this very clearly shows that the tactic of pouring money into the economy does not work. So the prerequisites for a full-fledged crisis have formed: bubbles in the financial markets, an extremely weak real economy and an ineffective monetary policy, which also has completely exhausted its anti-crisis and stimulating potential. Let us multiply by growing populism, protectionism and a general crisis in the political system of almost any country and we have an extremely explosive mixture. That is, any serious shock and a house of cards will sprinkle. Recall, we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
USDJPY tests the lower channel boundsThe USD is the worst performing G10 currency as we come to the final days of December and the end of the decade. DXY broke below the 96.750 level (US dollar index) which is its lowest in 6 months. The catalyst of the weaker dollar has likely been risk appetite holding up since both the US and China said that they were ready to sign a Phase 1 deal; as well as the US Federal Reserve’s continued repo operations, which have recently been undersubscribed. US Yields are expected to extend their grind higher in Q1 and a weaker USD should continue to support Commodity strength. Gold & Copper continue to be bullish and have established a base. A weaker USD and stronger Commodities are expected to support Emerging Markets equity strength, with MSCI EM China crucially now also breaking higher.
by ForexVox
2
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2019.12.30In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting: In the next diagram let us imagine the channel highs had broken and resistance was cracked - then the flows would be invalidated and closed (the capital would have exhausted). In this case, the highs held as anticipated, there follows large offers from smart money pinging out price and sending loud signals that the move is not weak - how can anything be weak if it cannot be broken? Or imagine this next diagram with a before and after the fact instead. Now there is no question we were still looking for sells and expecting large hands to defend. This is painfully felt by retail after the breakup move... although bulls achieved nothing and could not hold the stops, whereas with those sharp enough to sell above the highs are fading the exuberance and at least in this example we are crippling the opposition backward for a certain length of time enough to eliminate risk: For those wanting to track Gold in the background with Santanomics in full swing: Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
1