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Mori-Gumi wave 4 bounce possibleHello, This post is for me primarily. Here is a relatively undervalued equity paying 4% dividends and a PE of 5. Just another stock that I have decided to chart in my search for undervalued Japanese stocks. If you think US, EU etc treasury bond yields are low try a negative yield in Japan. A 10 year bond returns -0.05% (yes negative) and a 2 year -0.156 as at the 15th of May 2019. Compared to submitting yourself to a guaranteed loss, some low to medium dividend stocks must start to look attractive to the market. Anyway, my post is conditional; A long entry may want to wait until a small rise and then a higher low being set before entering. Making it back to the 0.382 fib level would be over 60% and the 0.236 fib level: 32%. Now, I may have counted wrongly and the 5 wave, wave C down has already terminated (it is rather hard to tell given the price action). In that case, expect higher highs.
TSE:1853Long
by flyinkiwi10
Ueki Corp - points to significant Japanese equity undervaluationShort term - short (but not in a position so just waiting), Medium + LT term long. Why? Well a couple of reasons. Despite the retraction in sales and profits in the construction industry in Japan as evident from Ueki's results there are some rather signs of value. I haven't even started a full accounting of undervalued Japanese stocks yet but can see that I will likely buy because: - Ueki's market cap, for example, is almost 63% lower than its net assets. Compared to U.S. equities that is comparably significantly undervalued. As at December 2018 the average S&P 500 price to book ratio was 2.8 (and this was AFTER the December price drop). Compare that to a P/B value for Ueki of 0.35. i.e. The Company could be liquidated now and would return significantly more than the current price per share to investors. - Investment Banks are entering long the market - seeing the market as oversold: www.cnbc.com I also read an article a while back that said Morgan Stanley is advising clients to exit US equities which will cause many to look elsewhere in the US and overseas for better value risk adjusted returns: www.investopedia.com I'm not sure if that is the one though, - Likely due to having been in a 30 year bear market, the Japanese equity market likely has, on average, less downside risk as compared to US stocks: www.bloomberg.com - My TA points towards a significant appreciation of the JPY vs the AUD, USD, and EUR. If this happens, any returns will magnified. Despite its significant debt load (230% of GDP+) Japanese citizens are willing to take a financial hit buying government bonds with negative interest rates in order to support their Country. - There are likely better, if not more undervalued, equities out there than Ueki. I feel encouraged to search for some deals. Thanks for viewing
TSE:1867
by flyinkiwi10
Possible buy zone Sumitomo MitsuiWhile 3.76% dividend yield isn't very high it is better than voluntarily forfeiting your money to the Japanese government in the form of negative bond yields (I apologise for my apparent lack of civic duty). Still, I expect a bit of a retrace before heading higher. This is 100% based on the chart and 0% based on fundamentals, although, I may be looking into the Company a bit more in-depth should it hit my price expectations. Short-term bearish, yet for form a medium term view based on fundamentals.
TSE:1821Short
by flyinkiwi10
Fudo Tetra Corp 1385Hello, I was just searching for low PE / oversold Japanese stocks. I am interested to see if this plays out, as it will be much better value sub 750 and well worth a look. Short to medium term short and medium term long. If you can snag some shares around 600 yen each and it retraces only 38% of the previous deep drop (2004 - 2010) - the you could go 5x easily. I am not sure chat would cause an increase like that at this stage as I haven't looked deeper into the Company than the chart but will if my targets are met. Thanks for viewing.
TSE:1813Short
by flyinkiwi10
Nikkei: Long term Buy Opportunity.The index is approaching the 20,970 1W Support creating optimal conditions for a long term buy towards the 23,000 Resistance. Nikkei is on an uptrend since the December bottom (1M MACD = 405.550, RSI = 50.348) and only a breach of the 20,360 Support can distress that. The Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) may come later to confirm that. We are long on NI225 with TP = 23,000. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TVC:NI225Long
by InvestingScope
Positive from China, money from Japan, the best deal of the weekThe markets somehow calmed down after the shock caused by Trump's tweets. The reason is that the information that China is not going to withdraw the negotiators. This week a Chinese delegation will arrive in Washington for the next round of talks. This is a confirmation of our assumption that Trump's tweets should be responded calmly since this is nothing more than a form of pressure on the negotiators. Another example of similar negotiations we observed was between the USA, Canada and Mexico. The result is well-known - a successful completion with a benefit for the United States, of course. So something similar is happening now. However, the Fear Index (VIX) does not think to go down. Accordingly, our recommendations for finding points for gold and Japanese yen buying as well as oil sales remain relevant. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co, meanwhile, are wondering where the $ 400 billion of Japanese investors will get, which they will receive after redeeming Japan’s government bonds. The amount is more than serious and any of its directional movements, especially one-time, will greatly influence the dynamics of prices in any market. It is quite possible to observe a carry trade wave, which will contribute to the weakening of the Japanese yen. So if a strong movement on sales of the yen suddenly begins in the foreign exchange market, you should not stand in its way. Recall, at one time Soros needed about $ 10-15 billion to crush a pound by 15-20%. Accordingly, $ 400 billion is very serious. Markets will focus on working out the current fundamental background and price trends on Wednesday. Recall that this week’s most promising position is buying of the Australian dollar that has been chosen by us. Since the Bank of Australia did not substitute the national currency and showed restraint in the comments (there were no hints at the prospects for reducing the rate), the current points continue to be extremely attractive for mid-term trade with targets of 300-400 points and stops no more than 100. Our vision of the most promising positions for trading today are unchanged: buying of the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
by Trade24Fx
GOLDEN WEEK: Potential nightmare ahead. If you've never heard of the Yen 'flash crash' on 3rd Jan 2019 (after a 4 day bank holiday in Japan), you definitely need to watch this. We have a 10-day bank holiday in Japan in Golden Week. The previous mini-crash was on one day. Loads of retail forex traders were wiped out. Now we're staring at potentially something more than a mini-crash on Yen pairs. What happens during and shortly after the holiday period is that contracts for forex come in, algos react and /JPY ratios head south, like nobody's business. Well, I'm afraid this is your business if you have any /JPY pairs on a live trade. Worse yet if you're long be very careful. AUD pairs were also caught up in the fray as they are affected more by stuff that goes on in Japan. Don't ask me why. LOL. It is what it is. So /AUD pairs can rock north if this thing happens again. Right - I'm not here to scare-monger anything. I'm here to help. I'm bringing knowledge of a potential systematic risk that is approaching. You decide what you do with your trades. I'm not advising anybody to close their /JPY trades. Your decisions and your losses are your own. End off.
by Captain_Walker
1
Draghi departure & fate of euro, CB of Canada & Japan decisionThe main event on the foreign exchange market yesterday was the announcement of the outcome of the Bank of Canada meeting. For the fourth time, the Central Bank did not raise the rate. The decision is predictable and has been accounted for in the Canadian dollar price. But what was not considered? The fact that the Bank of Canada completely removed the mention of the possibility of a rate hike in the future from its statement. This was a surprise. For the Canadian dollar surprises with a “minus sign”. So, its sales could be called logical. The rest of the Wednesday was a rather quiet day. Dollar growth has stalled. In the absence of additional drivers for growth. However, today a surge of volatility in dollar pairs might occur after the publication of data on orders for durable goods in the United States. Well, almost certainly not avoid a “roller coaster” on Friday, when data on US GDP for the first quarter will be published. In relation to relatively calm news background, investors and traders decided to attend to promising events. In particular, what will happen with the euro after the Mario Draghi departure from the post of President of the ECB? According to analysts at UBS, the euro is waiting for its growth regardless of who takes the chair. Motivation - a new president - is a reason to start tightening monetary policy in the Eurozone. That is a positive factor for the euro anyway. So those who are engaged in long-term trading should pay attention to buying euros, which is quite cheap lately. Another important Central Bank’s meeting this time in Japan was held today. Traditionally, the Bank of Japan did not adjust the country's monetary policy. But at the same time, Central Bank made it clear that the ultra-soft monetary policy will continue until at least 2020. In addition, the Central Bank lowered its forecasts for inflation and GDP in Japan. In general, this is quite a sickening blow to the yen, so its sales remain relevant. So, we are continuing to recommend to buy USDJPY. According to the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the United States have risen sharply over the past week (+5.479 million with a forecast of +1.0 million). Despite this clearly bearish signal, oil did not decline. This once again confirms the current situation in the oil market: buyers dominate. This means that it is necessary to continue to look for points for buying on the intraday basis. As for our other positions, today we are continuing to look for points for selling the dollar against the euro, pound, and also the franc. In addition, we return to the gold buying on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
Trump vs Fed, trade negotiations and recession risksTrump continues the crusade against the Fed. He is absolutely not satisfied with the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of the USA, and he keeps reminding in his twitter. He accused the Fed that the Central Bank slowed the growth of the US economy on Sunday, also impedes the growth of the US stock market. Recall, the Fed is an independent body and has the right not to coordinate monetary policy and its actions with the US President. Such a position does not “play into the hands” of the dollar. So, our position in the foreign exchange market remains unchanged: we are looking for points for selling the dollar. Meanwhile, the United States launched negotiations on trade wars on all fronts, literally. Recently the main attention was focused on China, now negotiations are simultaneously being held with the EU and Japan. In general, it is a positive signal for the global economy and risky assets. Another signal was the meeting of IMF representatives and the World Bank. Despite the fact that the IMF has already lowered forecasts for economic growth rates three times in a row, representatives of the IMF and the World Bank agreed that the risk of recession remains very low. So, the current decline in gold and the growth of USDJPY is explicable. Nevertheless, there is no material evidence of actual progress in the negotiations, with the exception of individual comments. Therefore, we continue to look for points to buy gold on the intraday basis. We are buying USDDJPY, which acts as a hedge. As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying). We are buying gold and oil in the commodity markets. In addition, we continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USDJPY Long-Term Short, Resistance Range Too Strong to SurpassThe conversation on the Japanese yen is as much about the US economy as much as it is about the Japanese economy. This is mainly due to the fact that the Japanese yen acts as a safe haven asset during times of downward volatility, even if that volatility stems from Japan such as the natural and nuclear disasters that rocked the archipelago nation in 2011. Moreover, while the more common tools of prediction like ordinary least squared models can provide a bit of accuracy in price action, it clearly lacks a precise target. This is especially the case given technical resistance and support levels even though the Pearson’s R statistic suggests a high degree of model fitness. Nonetheless, the macroeconomic trends suggest that while there is a 95 percent probability that price action moves to a range of 111.705 and 112.157 by the end of April, observers should not be surprised if price action moves towards the lower end of the 95 percent confidence interval towards a range of 109.595 and 109.771. These primarily include the continued downgrading of global economic growth by the EU, the IMF, the OCED, and the World Bank. Truly, there is now a global growth slowdown of the major world economies including the EU, China, and increasingly the United States. In the United States, the USD side of USDJPY, the FOMC will release its meeting minutes later in the day explaining to investors why the Fed made a 180 turn from hawkish monetary policy to dovishness which inspired traders during the day this policy position came out to retreat from equity markets. This was mainly due to the fact that investors believed the FOMC knew something they didn’t, specifically that the FOMC had data pointing to an increase in a US slowdown (a negative for USDJPY). We will find out the degree in which this is true later. While CPI figures that came out this morning were quite promising coming in at 2 percent, sentiment figures from the University of Michigan come out on Friday which are forecasted to be worse than last month’s figures. Aside from a slowdown in global growth and the potential of a recession in the upcoming year, there are many more overarching thematic trends in the global economy that would suggest the Japanese yen may in the longer-term become stronger against the US dollar. This includes primarily the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the desire of US President Donald Trump to continue his trade wars with the world. Both of these issues, if not managed properly by central figures, could spiral out of control and have a dramatic negative effect on global markets potentially spiraling into something more than what they intrinsically inherent. Overall, there are many more reasons to be bearish than what there are to be bullish on USDJPY. This trend could reverse as the world could currently merely be in a trough of a global growth slowdown. However, these trends tend to not reverse as quickly as other trends such as forex price action. Because of this, my long-term view remains the same from months prior which is primarily that observers should be careful this late in the cycle. Foreign exchange markets will be some of the first to react to any realization of volatility while equities tend to be more knee-jerk reactionary. Since this is the case, it will remain key to keep an eye on safe haven assets such as USDJPY in order to maintain a finger on the pulse of global financial markets.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
USDJPY Sideways Because it Likes Less Steep SupportWhile the Japanese yen had been trading on an upward short-term support line, last week it broke this line. Interestingly enough though, it found another level of support similar to the previous level of support, but just with a bit of a less steep slope. Clearly there is much evidence to suggest that the Japanese yen should be taking a nosedive. Compelling evidence for the contrary as well. But if we are just looking at short-term movement, its clear that for the moment USDJPY prefers a more sideways move as opposed to a strictly long or short move.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
USDJPY Short Because Technicals Flash Overbought, Yen Safe HavenUSDJPY has a number of trends going against it to force price action downwards. Technicals and fundamentals are not on the dollar's side against the yen. Traders can see a number of oscillators and MAs suggesting USDJPY is overbought and due for a reversal. Moreover and probably more impactful are the fundamentals of the global economy which suggest major growth centers (Europe and China) are slowing down. US treasury yields suggest we are heading towards a recession and US GDP growth is probably going to be less than previous quarter for the second quarter in a row. Because of this, the yen will be heavily invested into which will partially be a result of institutional hedging, partially Japanese capital flows returning to Japan. While the dollar will also benefit from this, it will probably not benefit as much as the yen in the short term since the US economy is still strong and many in the US still want to be exposed to risk-on assets like equity markets. In spite of this, sentiment indicators suggest the yen is set for a bullish move, but this can quickly reverse. You can find that data here www.dailyfx.com and you can find more analysis of currencies and indexes here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
The price returned to test the medium term key supportThe price returned to test. The price returned to test the medium term key support at 123.8. If it were violated to the downside with closure below it would be a strongly bearish scenario. This would immediately lead it to the next static support at 122.6. Within a couple of sessions then could try to break it down. The pair could reach the next support area at 118 in a week. If, on the other hand, this level, where is the price now, resisted, a very short uptrend will follow up to the static resistance set at 125.7. Most plausible scenario Given the macroeconomic situation that is causing markets and investors worry, it is very likely that shortly we will be able to see a retracement of the main indices. This shifting investors to Japan’s currency. The scenario that is taking shape in the European currency also weighs heavily. The ECB’s stagnant economic and monetary policy is weakening the euro. The currency will continue to depreciate throughout 2019.
Short
by BFCMInvest