Japan
Not a Fan of that Resistance or PerformanceWhile there is much room to go before we hit resistance, I am really not a huge fan of this overall lackluster performance. Keep in mind, the BoJ owns upwards of 80 percent of the entire Japanese ETF market. 80 percent. Let that sink in. Also, export data is weak in an economy where exports make up 18 percent of GDP. If we gain five percent from today, nobody will be happier than me as my overall macro view will gladly change. I can sleep at night being wrong on five percent. But really though what could possibly lead to that given the last three months where some Asian markets like the Shanghai Composite would gain 5 percent in a single day while Japan is asleep? Just not convinced. More fundy and technical analysis on Asian markets as they move today here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
A bit unsure stillNikkei 225 is a bit tricky. Good fundamental data out of Japan such as dovish monetary policy, but weak export figures which is why its down today. Technically, we are well above most exponential moving averages, but stochastic reads overbought while momentum suggests we are still headed in an uptrend. Overall, not enough signals for one way or the other.
NINJA - an evaluationFUNDAMENTALS:
JPY:
- Rates remained the same in Japan, doubt they'll change anytime soon.
- ageing population, shrinking AD in the economy.
- Slow wage growth, however Abe has introduced a minimum wage to combat low levels of AD, but a weakening JPY will make it difficult for consumers to spend abroad - Which is good as the BOP will correct itself (X-M) - we're currently in a Balance of payments deficit in Japan. (Q418).
- The elephant in the room: DEBT! Japan has the one of the highest levels of debt amongst developed countries at 236% of GDP in 2017. This in partnership with a trade deficit is extremely mischievous, the need for "Abenomics" is crucial lol.
- China is Japan's biggest trade partner - as is lots of countries such as AUD, NZD. China saw a slip in growth Q418 at 6.4% down from 6.6% in Q318. China is a source of AD, low AD results in less demand for the JPY.
USD:
- Rates are staying the same.
- middle aged population, still has a lot of work left in them lol.
- Protectionism from Trump has promoted domestic productivity at the expense of Chinese AD. Unemployment rate down from 4% to 3.8% thanks to Trump.
- Modest levels of inflation at 1.5% down from 1.6%
- FED: balance sheet correction. Hence they have confidence in the economy to sort itself out, therefore rates remaining the same.
TECHNICALS:
JPY:
-Fibb 50% level is being tested.
-upward daily trend
-currently bouncing zone on the monthly (bullish)
-targets 114+ extended targets @118
-currently collecting buys on the daily and lower
USD:
-DXY is about to break out of its weekly bullish channel
-DXY has rejected 97.50 resistance, next support area is 96.0
-However DXY: consistent higher lows have been made. Indicating a potential bullish break of range in the foreseeable future.
However:
-Daily candle has closed outside of the uptrend channel. Hence some downside could be felt toward the 110 area before further elevations to 114 and beyond.
Maybe Don't Short Just YetMaybe another 1000 pips to go before we see some significant downward momentum at 112.30.
Nikkei225 (NI225) LONGI am expecting price to rebound from the bearish streak at the 20742.2 price level, which also represents a fibonacci zone. However, it should be noted that the price is creating somewhat a triangle pattern and it is thus wise to watch out for further downside movement below the 20742.2 price level as prices might be heading to retest the upward trendline from the monthly timeframe. Either way, i will only wait for long trades one this one
USDJPY Very Bullish on Monthly ChartHere we can see the zoomed out macro map for the flows in usdjpy. If you are a believer in the bullish USD story and see this as an ABC corrective leg, after completing a multi decade 5 wave sequence.
Timing wise we have the seasonality flows to Yen as we approach the end of the fiscal year. Although the name of the game is to park in dollar so these are expected to be short lived. Similar in nature to the temporary bounce we are seeing in Gold.
I have also attached the Dollar chart "Long term uptrend is clear as day" ... everything is aligning for this leg in dollar across the board. The story ties in with the 1.05 target in EURUSD.
Lets see how it plays out, best of luck to those on the dollar side.
EURJPY short possibility!If we look to past movements, the flag created, trendlines and support and resistance lines I think EURJPY will drop soon! We will look for the blue area wich is drawn. Since we touched this area before we may retest this area and see if we go further down or up again.
USD/JPY current open long position. (Back with a bang!?)I have decided to return and begin posting my market outlooks on TradingView, to establish both my name and brand. Please ensure you follow my page for upcoming market breakdowns of the 9 currency pairs I trade.
To start off, here is USD/JPY. Following my usual analysis pattern I first established my bias across the higher time frames. On the monthly time frame, although the candle has yet to close, we can see a strong wick rejection of both 105.200 - 107.500. Thinking logically, we saw these vast wicks form on the 1st of January, possibly to bring price down to a level where the "big cats" has inserted there buy orders? a form of market manipulation perhaps? you decide.
Moving onto the weekly time frame, price has been rapidly descending since its rejecting of strong support at 114.000. A trade I managed to profit from on a few occasions. However, with this in mind price seems to be running out of steam from its current bear run with last weeks candle closing as a doji following a heavy candle fuelled with plenty of bearish momentum.
Shifting down onto the daily time frame we can see this descent from 114.000 more clearly. It is apparent that price had little to no pullback throughout its collapse and recently has put in signs that it is over-extended to the downside and its in need of a greater pullback to the upside if it is to continue its descent. 10th of January's daily candle seemed to have formed a higher low after rejecting what could of been a strong bearish candle. Is this the initial signs of a break of the bearish trend? We have also established a daily trading range between 107.500 and 109.000 which was used as resistance previously.
On the hourly time frame, we have two areas of interest. First a level at 108.200 which has been reacting as both support and resistance on multiple occasions during prices daily range. The second area of interest sits at 108.043. Although price sits below 108.200, it has just placed 5 consecutive wick rejection off 108.043 and rejected the potential to make new lows... To me this suggests signs of a shift in the overall trend following our higher time frame confluences. I have therefore entered long, targeting the daily range resistance at 109.000. However, we have yet to see a clear break above the hourly 50ema and 108.200 so this trade has been entered using half the risk I would usually use with the vision to scale in after a clear break above both levels.
Please do not use my analysis as finical gospel but instead alongside your own ideas!
USD/JPY Potential pullback and bull run?USD/JPY is a pair I have been sat on the sidelines with for some time. It just hasn't offered the trading set-ups I look for. However, that looks to change this week if price forms this pullback i am expecting.
Starting from the higher time frames, price formed a very strong wick rejection of 105.200 before almost reaching back to its monthly opening price. This shows a clear rejection of price making further lows. If we see a monthly close anywhere near its current price level it will form an almost perfect higher low indicating a shift in the trend after prices sharp decline from 114.000.
This descent from 114.000 can be seen much clearer on the weekly time frame, with price consistently and strongly collapsing across 4 weeks. Even if price was to continue its decline, I believe it would be in need of a strong pullback for further short orders to be met.
However, this daily set-up has arisen and I currently favour short term longs. On the daily time frame, we failed to close below 107.500 following a daily bearish trend consisting of lower highs followed by lower lows. Price looked to form a further lower high and potential penetrate 107.500 but instead the bulls ruled to momentum and bearish trend structure was broken. Price now sits within a 90 pip daily range between 109.000 & 109.900.
Personally, I am watching price and looking for a slight pullback and retest of 109.000. If this is fulfilled with strong bullish candlestick confirmation, this will be the area I look to long from. My initial target sitting at 109.900 and if broken, 110.500 fulfilling a 150 pip move.
There are fundamentals that support this idea but I will not get into these on TradingView.
Waiting USDJPY around 109.50 - 109.20 to Buy 112.00AS you see the USDJPY moves in uptrend and I hope the pair touches the trend line to buy it and targets
MAJOR update on USD/JPYMacroeconomic side
The price in the last sessions is continuing to maintain this lateral / bullish trend without giving too many signs of inversion, supported by a recovering dollar. This week will be essential to understand the short-term trend that will follow both the dollar and the yen: in fact, tomorrow the Fed chairman will make a conference, from which investors expect him to keep his very short-term decision unchanged (do not force the market and the US economy with further monetary restrictions). On the other hand, on Thursday, the Japanese GDP data will be published, expected positive and clearly improved compared to previous ones: this should strengthen the Japanese currency against the other majors.
The technical side
Technically there is a very strong resistance area between 110.70 and 110.90: the main EMAs (daily, weekly and monthly time frames) pass in here and the 110.90 should not be violated on the upside due to the macro-economic factors just mentioned. If this happens it is because the short-term trend has become long and the target area will become the one between 113 and 115
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USDJPY Prepare for a good buying trade As you see in the chart pattern I'm Waiting the price until go to the PZR to buy it.
Don't Sell now because we are in the uptrend.
NZDJPY Sell NowNZDJPY gives us a great opportunity to sell relative strength index indicate negative divergence and the last candle is engulfing
US10YR Yield likely on a Long Path SidewaysUS Yields are likely going to follow the same path as Japanese Yields have taken over the past few decades. In this update i discuss why I believe this to be, and I also break down the chart using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis to try and how this will play out.
Business Cycle vs G3 Govt Bond YieldsBusiness cycle points to lower long term government bond yields. US 10 year yields seem to be the most at risk.
LONG LT BONDS & Bond proxies
USDJPY Chances are chancesUSDJPY looks nice to risk some money on, even for a sell and hold. The JPY is range bound and consolidating in an environment of mild risk aversion, with a Tuesday’s session unchanged versus the dollar, of course, waiting for Wednesday's FED decision and the upcoming round of US and China trade talks. The pair is currently >1.53% Bearish.
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EUR/JPY Long Open Position. Heres how I currently sit on EUR/JPY.
Again following what I had outlined on the weekend across the higher time frames, the hourly formed enough confluences for me execute a long trade...targeting a 75 pip upside target with a risk:reward of 1:3.
125.000 acts as key hourly resistance on this pair so it is important that we break and close above this level for me to continue supporting a long bias. During the Draghi talks we had a perfect pullback and retest of 124.800 which I had highlighted as a key zone for multiple reasons...not to be mentioned (some secrets must remain secrets.)
I now believe we have fulfilled plenty of long orders and the momentum is there for us to stretch higher. Unfortunately I did not obtain my best, preferred entry but this will do.
Win or Loose I really don't mind..don't get emotionally attached to your trades, you'll be led down a deep, dark route.
Possible Short Position CHF/JPYSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1-2 Days
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Currency Pair creating a Double Top .
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @111.600 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 110.150
FX:CHFJPY
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Target 1 @110.150
Risk/Reward @ 2:4
Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
S&P Japan 500 correction almost completeThis is my amateur perspective after looking at the chart for 10 minutes and drawing colourful lines all over the place.
Summary: Go long - but not quite yet.
We are in the wave 4 of (5) correction that will continue for a drop of 7 - 11% before recovering to form sub-wave 5 of (5) up (I am picking a buy zone between 1460 and 1440). Short-term targets will become clearer once sub-wave 1 of the final move up is formed. A conservative target - once the small decline is over - is 20% up from todays closing price (1880+). Not being experienced at time analysis - so I would guess this would complete in around 8 to 10 months.
Happy tradng. Do your own research. I am not a professional and this is published so that I can 1. keep track of the market easily and 2. to further my own education. Let's see if I am on the mark or way off. This is 100% TA and no fundamental analysis has been undertaken.
P.S. Japan is awesome
NIKKEI 225 CRITICAL LEVEL TO WATCHTHIS A THE MONTHLY CHART OF JAPAN 225, AS WE CAN SEE IT IS SITTING RIGHT ON TOP OF THE TREND LINE + SUPPORT AT 19000. IF THIS LEVEL HOLDS, WE WILL SEE JAPAN 225 TO KEEP GOING UP.
