Japan
USD/JPY current open long position. (Back with a bang!?)I have decided to return and begin posting my market outlooks on TradingView, to establish both my name and brand. Please ensure you follow my page for upcoming market breakdowns of the 9 currency pairs I trade.
To start off, here is USD/JPY. Following my usual analysis pattern I first established my bias across the higher time frames. On the monthly time frame, although the candle has yet to close, we can see a strong wick rejection of both 105.200 - 107.500. Thinking logically, we saw these vast wicks form on the 1st of January, possibly to bring price down to a level where the "big cats" has inserted there buy orders? a form of market manipulation perhaps? you decide.
Moving onto the weekly time frame, price has been rapidly descending since its rejecting of strong support at 114.000. A trade I managed to profit from on a few occasions. However, with this in mind price seems to be running out of steam from its current bear run with last weeks candle closing as a doji following a heavy candle fuelled with plenty of bearish momentum.
Shifting down onto the daily time frame we can see this descent from 114.000 more clearly. It is apparent that price had little to no pullback throughout its collapse and recently has put in signs that it is over-extended to the downside and its in need of a greater pullback to the upside if it is to continue its descent. 10th of January's daily candle seemed to have formed a higher low after rejecting what could of been a strong bearish candle. Is this the initial signs of a break of the bearish trend? We have also established a daily trading range between 107.500 and 109.000 which was used as resistance previously.
On the hourly time frame, we have two areas of interest. First a level at 108.200 which has been reacting as both support and resistance on multiple occasions during prices daily range. The second area of interest sits at 108.043. Although price sits below 108.200, it has just placed 5 consecutive wick rejection off 108.043 and rejected the potential to make new lows... To me this suggests signs of a shift in the overall trend following our higher time frame confluences. I have therefore entered long, targeting the daily range resistance at 109.000. However, we have yet to see a clear break above the hourly 50ema and 108.200 so this trade has been entered using half the risk I would usually use with the vision to scale in after a clear break above both levels.
Please do not use my analysis as finical gospel but instead alongside your own ideas!
USD/JPY Potential pullback and bull run?USD/JPY is a pair I have been sat on the sidelines with for some time. It just hasn't offered the trading set-ups I look for. However, that looks to change this week if price forms this pullback i am expecting.
Starting from the higher time frames, price formed a very strong wick rejection of 105.200 before almost reaching back to its monthly opening price. This shows a clear rejection of price making further lows. If we see a monthly close anywhere near its current price level it will form an almost perfect higher low indicating a shift in the trend after prices sharp decline from 114.000.
This descent from 114.000 can be seen much clearer on the weekly time frame, with price consistently and strongly collapsing across 4 weeks. Even if price was to continue its decline, I believe it would be in need of a strong pullback for further short orders to be met.
However, this daily set-up has arisen and I currently favour short term longs. On the daily time frame, we failed to close below 107.500 following a daily bearish trend consisting of lower highs followed by lower lows. Price looked to form a further lower high and potential penetrate 107.500 but instead the bulls ruled to momentum and bearish trend structure was broken. Price now sits within a 90 pip daily range between 109.000 & 109.900.
Personally, I am watching price and looking for a slight pullback and retest of 109.000. If this is fulfilled with strong bullish candlestick confirmation, this will be the area I look to long from. My initial target sitting at 109.900 and if broken, 110.500 fulfilling a 150 pip move.
There are fundamentals that support this idea but I will not get into these on TradingView.
Waiting USDJPY around 109.50 - 109.20 to Buy 112.00AS you see the USDJPY moves in uptrend and I hope the pair touches the trend line to buy it and targets
MAJOR update on USD/JPYMacroeconomic side
The price in the last sessions is continuing to maintain this lateral / bullish trend without giving too many signs of inversion, supported by a recovering dollar. This week will be essential to understand the short-term trend that will follow both the dollar and the yen: in fact, tomorrow the Fed chairman will make a conference, from which investors expect him to keep his very short-term decision unchanged (do not force the market and the US economy with further monetary restrictions). On the other hand, on Thursday, the Japanese GDP data will be published, expected positive and clearly improved compared to previous ones: this should strengthen the Japanese currency against the other majors.
The technical side
Technically there is a very strong resistance area between 110.70 and 110.90: the main EMAs (daily, weekly and monthly time frames) pass in here and the 110.90 should not be violated on the upside due to the macro-economic factors just mentioned. If this happens it is because the short-term trend has become long and the target area will become the one between 113 and 115
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USDJPY Chances are chancesUSDJPY looks nice to risk some money on, even for a sell and hold. The JPY is range bound and consolidating in an environment of mild risk aversion, with a Tuesday’s session unchanged versus the dollar, of course, waiting for Wednesday's FED decision and the upcoming round of US and China trade talks. The pair is currently >1.53% Bearish.
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EUR/JPY Long Open Position. Heres how I currently sit on EUR/JPY.
Again following what I had outlined on the weekend across the higher time frames, the hourly formed enough confluences for me execute a long trade...targeting a 75 pip upside target with a risk:reward of 1:3.
125.000 acts as key hourly resistance on this pair so it is important that we break and close above this level for me to continue supporting a long bias. During the Draghi talks we had a perfect pullback and retest of 124.800 which I had highlighted as a key zone for multiple reasons...not to be mentioned (some secrets must remain secrets.)
I now believe we have fulfilled plenty of long orders and the momentum is there for us to stretch higher. Unfortunately I did not obtain my best, preferred entry but this will do.
Win or Loose I really don't mind..don't get emotionally attached to your trades, you'll be led down a deep, dark route.
Possible Short Position CHF/JPYSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1-2 Days
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Currency Pair creating a Double Top .
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @111.600 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 110.150
FX:CHFJPY
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Target 1 @110.150
Risk/Reward @ 2:4
Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
S&P Japan 500 correction almost completeThis is my amateur perspective after looking at the chart for 10 minutes and drawing colourful lines all over the place.
Summary: Go long - but not quite yet.
We are in the wave 4 of (5) correction that will continue for a drop of 7 - 11% before recovering to form sub-wave 5 of (5) up (I am picking a buy zone between 1460 and 1440). Short-term targets will become clearer once sub-wave 1 of the final move up is formed. A conservative target - once the small decline is over - is 20% up from todays closing price (1880+). Not being experienced at time analysis - so I would guess this would complete in around 8 to 10 months.
Happy tradng. Do your own research. I am not a professional and this is published so that I can 1. keep track of the market easily and 2. to further my own education. Let's see if I am on the mark or way off. This is 100% TA and no fundamental analysis has been undertaken.
P.S. Japan is awesome
NIKKEI 225 CRITICAL LEVEL TO WATCHTHIS A THE MONTHLY CHART OF JAPAN 225, AS WE CAN SEE IT IS SITTING RIGHT ON TOP OF THE TREND LINE + SUPPORT AT 19000. IF THIS LEVEL HOLDS, WE WILL SEE JAPAN 225 TO KEEP GOING UP.
Japan. Never been. I'm in a BEARish wedge about it. I'm just making this up, words and all. Bears eat wedge widening on Japan Bears. Honey below 19950 and Bees above 20380. Ouch.
That's my Dream Analysis.
R 20380
S 19931
GBP/JPY... What is going on??!!The Pound against the Yen has been short for roughly around the beginning of November and puts pressure for the yen over the new year.
From research, this pair may continue to go down, and here is why. Firstly, the Nikkei 225 has significantly dropped by 17.53% from the 2nd of October to the 28th of December. Reasoning behind this is due to other variables affecting the yen such as the US and China trade war which gives concerning to what Japan may have to face when they trade with the United States on new policies. Especially since Japan is the 4th largest trading partner with the United States, rallying up on $204.1 Billion in 2017.
Britain on the other hand is more focused on Brexit, for those who do not know, Britain is wanting to leave the EU for more tougher immigration laws in order to strengthen the safety of the citizens from terrorism. There are many other reasons but this is the main highlight of why. Some people in Britain do not agree with some of the new policies and laws that the government is trying to put in place, including trade. Confident votes have been used in the government but Theresa May (current prime minister) still has passed in the votes.
Overall, both countries are in the downside at the current moment and we will have to see what 2019 awaits for us all but this evidentially results in a short sell position for short and long term.
Happy New Year everyone!
Japanese Equities look vulnerable again for early 2019=> Japan is in a party of its own with inflation flopping for the millionth time again this year. This was not enough to keep equities afloat and here the risk of returning to 19,222 is significant.
=> Tracking 21,240 - 20,975 like a hawk. Breaking below these levels will imply that we are continuing the downtrend since September.
=> Taking these lows will open up an additional -9% to the downside which will be extremely tradable for the first Quarter of 2019 and beyond if the dark clouds keep coming.
=> Best of luck to those in Japan and Japanese Equities
NI225 SHORT idea Hi huys and Merry Christmas. I post my recent for short possitions at Nikkei 225 with target 18025 ! Which is a high profit move or a trade if you got the whole picture of global markets and not for intraday investing. As we see ADX and Vortex Index signs 2 very solid sell signals through crossovers between the negative variables and positive variables. Invest with wisdom guys and be carefull !
