Business Cycle vs G3 Govt Bond YieldsBusiness cycle points to lower long term government bond yields. US 10 year yields seem to be the most at risk.
LONG LT BONDS & Bond proxies
Japan
USDJPY Chances are chancesUSDJPY looks nice to risk some money on, even for a sell and hold. The JPY is range bound and consolidating in an environment of mild risk aversion, with a Tuesday’s session unchanged versus the dollar, of course, waiting for Wednesday's FED decision and the upcoming round of US and China trade talks. The pair is currently >1.53% Bearish.
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EUR/JPY Long Open Position. Heres how I currently sit on EUR/JPY.
Again following what I had outlined on the weekend across the higher time frames, the hourly formed enough confluences for me execute a long trade...targeting a 75 pip upside target with a risk:reward of 1:3.
125.000 acts as key hourly resistance on this pair so it is important that we break and close above this level for me to continue supporting a long bias. During the Draghi talks we had a perfect pullback and retest of 124.800 which I had highlighted as a key zone for multiple reasons...not to be mentioned (some secrets must remain secrets.)
I now believe we have fulfilled plenty of long orders and the momentum is there for us to stretch higher. Unfortunately I did not obtain my best, preferred entry but this will do.
Win or Loose I really don't mind..don't get emotionally attached to your trades, you'll be led down a deep, dark route.
Possible Short Position CHF/JPYSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1-2 Days
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Currency Pair creating a Double Top .
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @111.600 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 110.150
FX:CHFJPY
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Target 1 @110.150
Risk/Reward @ 2:4
Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow
Thank you for your support :)
This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
S&P Japan 500 correction almost completeThis is my amateur perspective after looking at the chart for 10 minutes and drawing colourful lines all over the place.
Summary: Go long - but not quite yet.
We are in the wave 4 of (5) correction that will continue for a drop of 7 - 11% before recovering to form sub-wave 5 of (5) up (I am picking a buy zone between 1460 and 1440). Short-term targets will become clearer once sub-wave 1 of the final move up is formed. A conservative target - once the small decline is over - is 20% up from todays closing price (1880+). Not being experienced at time analysis - so I would guess this would complete in around 8 to 10 months.
Happy tradng. Do your own research. I am not a professional and this is published so that I can 1. keep track of the market easily and 2. to further my own education. Let's see if I am on the mark or way off. This is 100% TA and no fundamental analysis has been undertaken.
P.S. Japan is awesome
NIKKEI 225 CRITICAL LEVEL TO WATCHTHIS A THE MONTHLY CHART OF JAPAN 225, AS WE CAN SEE IT IS SITTING RIGHT ON TOP OF THE TREND LINE + SUPPORT AT 19000. IF THIS LEVEL HOLDS, WE WILL SEE JAPAN 225 TO KEEP GOING UP.
Japan. Never been. I'm in a BEARish wedge about it. I'm just making this up, words and all. Bears eat wedge widening on Japan Bears. Honey below 19950 and Bees above 20380. Ouch.
That's my Dream Analysis.
R 20380
S 19931
GBP/JPY... What is going on??!!The Pound against the Yen has been short for roughly around the beginning of November and puts pressure for the yen over the new year.
From research, this pair may continue to go down, and here is why. Firstly, the Nikkei 225 has significantly dropped by 17.53% from the 2nd of October to the 28th of December. Reasoning behind this is due to other variables affecting the yen such as the US and China trade war which gives concerning to what Japan may have to face when they trade with the United States on new policies. Especially since Japan is the 4th largest trading partner with the United States, rallying up on $204.1 Billion in 2017.
Britain on the other hand is more focused on Brexit, for those who do not know, Britain is wanting to leave the EU for more tougher immigration laws in order to strengthen the safety of the citizens from terrorism. There are many other reasons but this is the main highlight of why. Some people in Britain do not agree with some of the new policies and laws that the government is trying to put in place, including trade. Confident votes have been used in the government but Theresa May (current prime minister) still has passed in the votes.
Overall, both countries are in the downside at the current moment and we will have to see what 2019 awaits for us all but this evidentially results in a short sell position for short and long term.
Happy New Year everyone!
Japanese Equities look vulnerable again for early 2019=> Japan is in a party of its own with inflation flopping for the millionth time again this year. This was not enough to keep equities afloat and here the risk of returning to 19,222 is significant.
=> Tracking 21,240 - 20,975 like a hawk. Breaking below these levels will imply that we are continuing the downtrend since September.
=> Taking these lows will open up an additional -9% to the downside which will be extremely tradable for the first Quarter of 2019 and beyond if the dark clouds keep coming.
=> Best of luck to those in Japan and Japanese Equities
NI225 SHORT idea Hi huys and Merry Christmas. I post my recent for short possitions at Nikkei 225 with target 18025 ! Which is a high profit move or a trade if you got the whole picture of global markets and not for intraday investing. As we see ADX and Vortex Index signs 2 very solid sell signals through crossovers between the negative variables and positive variables. Invest with wisdom guys and be carefull !
Possible Short Position SGD/JPYSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1 Day
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Currency Pair creating a Double Top .
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @82.37 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 82.00 level.
FOREXCOM:SGDJPY
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Target 1 @82.00
Risk/Reward @ 2:1
Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow
Thank you for your support :)
This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
CADJPY, Trendline BrokenCADJPY dropped below the long term trendline. Wait for a retrecement and open a short position.
Shorting EUR/JPYBeautiful head and shoulders pattern. This calls for a short on the USDJPY.
- The head and shoulders pattern is impeccable in this scenario
- P/L is at about 2:1
- MACD momentum looking very bearish
ADA ABC correction completedADA after completing ABC correction aiming for more high,
0.618 support confirmed on 1 hour and 4 hours chart
USDJPY Warming up for a stop run and then DUMPThe Samurai are planning a surprise attack on Dixie.
So we have:
- A few highs resting just below a significant breaker (or just plain broken support that should now be resistance), creating a liquidity pool just above them (everyone who went short around this level now probably has their stops above that high.
- Void left by the inefficient move down
- Confluence with DXY since it broke some lows recently, making it more bearish.
- The breaker I outlined above falls right on the .705 fib retracement for this whole move.
This makes it a perfect candidate for a short play once it reaches that .705 level.
I can see two targets here with decent R/R ratios, marked on the chart.
Nikkei 225 set for Long moveIts been a while since I published.
Ive been checking Nikkei 225 for a while. The market has moved to a long standing Bull Trend line, where its developed Bull reversal this trading week over the last two days.
With Asia session about to begin, watch for strong continuation. Yall know how JPY react. Very solid movers once a move is in play.
This current level is perfect to catch the wave, with previous High being high probability TP.
Price Action Pmlani
thePeoplesTrader
Japanese stocks beginning to moveToday’s session saw the Nikkei close above 23,000 for the first time since the January sell-off. The chart below shows the Nikkei well positioned for a rally. Note: a) 3 higher lows b) the index on the right side of a long-term uptrend, and c) the first close higher above a 7 month resistance (the break).
This specific setup offers a good risk-reward: Entry now at 23,100 with a stop-price at 22,000 -last swing higher- for just a 5% risk.
Data based on Japan's Ministry of Finance data, and compiled by CLSA, shows the profitability of corporate Japan surging to its highest level since comparable data started being compiled in 1954. Growing data shows that Japan — in the face of a permanently bearish view of Japan’s demographics, high public debt and historically weak corporate governance — is midway through a historic turnaround in productivity and corporate return on equity. That view, said Morgan Stanley in a report published this week “puts us strongly against the consensus opinion that Japan should remain a structural underweight in global equity portfolios”.
USDJPY SHOWING STRONG SHORT-TERM UPWARDS PATTERN.Take a look this highly interesting bullish pattern .
Almost all critical indicators are showing a bullish pattern .
RSI (14) Value = 59.9 <---- Buy Signal
STOCHRSI(14) Value = 84.4 <--- Buy Signal (Though overbought)
CCI (14) Value = 116.45 <--- Buy Signal
Oscillator Value = 56.4 <--- Buy Signal
Roc Value 0.09 <--- Buy Signal
Bull/Bear Power(13) Value = 0.1 <-- Buy signal
Only one indicator I have looked at is showing that USDJPY is neutral, which is a HUGE sign, minimal risk in this chart. ( MACD value = 0.060 , Neutral, but slightly more a buy than sell signal.)
Have a great day and follow me for daily analyses!
