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Could the USDJPY retest 160?When the BoJ increased interest rates in March, for the first time in 17 years, the Yen continued to weaken due to the perceived lack of commitment toward further rate hikes. In April the BoJ kept rates on hold at 0.10%, which saw the Yen react with further weakness. The BoJ is due to release its Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow (Friday). With the USDJPY currently at the 157.25 price level, a resumption of strength on the DXY following the FOMC decision yesterday could see the USDJPY climb up to the resistance level of 158 before the BoJ decision. If the BoJ decides to keep rates on hold and not take any further action on reducing its bond purchases, the Yen could weaken further, pushing the USDJPY higher toward the all time high of 160. This is likely to make it very interesting as it would reignite the speculation of a possible currency intervention from the BoJ
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Japan rate decision Friday: A deeper look Japan's wholesale inflation surged in May at the fastest annual rate in nine months, data revealed yesterday, indicating that a weak yen may be exerting upward pressure on prices by increasing the cost of raw material imports. Producer prices in Japan rose 2.4% year-on-year in May 2024, up from 1.1% in April, surpassing market expectations of a 2% rise. This data is likely to be a key factor for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) board as it convenes for a two-day policy meeting ending on Friday. The central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its short-term interest rate target within the 0% to 0.1% range. However, the data adds complexity to the BOJ's decision-making on the timing of interest rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated that the central bank will consider raising rates further if it becomes more confident that underlying inflation will remain around the 2% target. Looking at the 4-hour chart today, the USD/JPY has rebounded following the FOMC decision, erasing much of the post-CPI drop, and passing through the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-hour Exponential Moving Averages.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY as BOJ rate decision approaches The US federal Reserve is not the only major central bank making an interest rate decision this week. So too, will the nonconformist Bank of Japan (BOJ). In its April policy meeting, the BOJ highlighted upside risks to inflation and indicated readiness to adjust monetary policy, if necessary, although it expects to maintain its current policy for the time being. The BOJ stated that if the outlook for economic activity and price rises materializes, interest rate hikes could be warranted. Key economic reports from Japan prior to this week's interest rate decision include: Japan GDP Growth Rate (final) Japan Economy Watchers Survey Outlook Japan Producer Price Inflation For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. From the daily chart, the USD/JPY perhaps appears slightly bullish. The pair has climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong buyer momentum. On Tuesday last week, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino expressed concerns about the negative impact of a weak yen on the economy. His comments suggest that the BOJ might be preparing for another intervention in the forex markets to support the yen, which would be negative for the USD/JPY pair. The 14-day RSI has recently pulled back, avoiding overbought conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
$TM 220 - 240 - 25O AFTER EARNINGS ?NYSE:TM 220 - 240 - 25O AFTER EARNINGS ? 6 REASONS !! Strong Quarterly Earnings: Toyota has shown strong financial performance in the recent past, with its profit in the latest quarter jumping nearly threefold from a year ago as vehicle sales grew globally. This indicates a strong demand for Toyota's vehicles and the company's ability to capitalize on this demand, which could positively impact its stock price. Increased Net Profit Forecast: Toyota ramped up its annual net profit forecast to $26.1 billion after reporting it more than doubled in the first six months of the year. This indicates the company's confidence in its future performance, which could boost investor confidence and drive up the stock price. Record High Stock Price: Toyota's shares hit a record high after reporting strong earnings and raising its fiscal-year earnings forecast. This shows that the market responds positively to Toyota's financial performance, and further strong earnings could lead to a higher stock price. Year-on-Year Earnings Growth: Despite a recent decline in earnings quarter-on-quarter, Toyota's earnings are up +97% year-on-year. This indicates a strong recovery and growth trajectory, which could lead to a higher stock price in the future. Positive Market Sentiment: The market's response to Toyota's earnings reports has generally been positive, with the stock price rising after strong earnings reports. This suggests that if Toyota continues to report strong earnings, the market could respond positively, potentially pushing the stock price towards $250. Dividend Yield: Toyota pays an annual dividend of $5.10 per share and currently has a dividend yield of 2.38%. This could attract investors looking for stable returns, potentially driving up the stock price.
NYSE:TMLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
BOJ Intervention Again⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, EUJPY is currently approaching a massive supply zone marked in red. For the bears to take over again and start the next bearish impulse movement, a break below the last major low in gray is needed. Meanwhile, EURJPY would be bullish short-term and can still trade higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
NIKKEI Is it worth buying here?Nikkei (NI225) is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time as a Resistance, following the bearish break-out on April 15, which was its first breach since November 02 2023. This is a very consistent behavioral pattern with both of the previous two corrections of the 2-year Channel Up pattern. As you can see, reclaiming the 1D MA50 wasn't enough for either correction to make the index resume the uptrend, even closing above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level didn't guarantee it. What did form the index' bottom however, was the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold limit (green circle). At the moment the index is rebounding off such an RSI test. This means that this time we may see the recovery much earlier, so once we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 46000 (Channel's top and below the minimum +31.73% of Bullish Legs patterns). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:NI225Long
by TradingShot
TOYOTA 254 TP AFTER EARNINGS !! Toyota’s Earnings Report Highlights Third-Quarter Fiscal 2024 Performance: On February 6th, 2024, Toyota Motor Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.81, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.66. Toyota’s consolidated revenues for the quarter were $81.5 billion, beating analyst estimates of $73.7 billion. Investment Strategy and Hybrid Vehicles: Toyota’s strategy of focusing on hybrid vehicles rather than electric vehicles (EVs) has paid off. While many automakers are heavily investing in EVs, Toyota’s commitment to hybrid technology has resonated with consumers and investors. Sales Volume and Operating Income: A year-over-year improvement in sales volume likely bolstered Toyota’s results in the third quarter. However, operating income in China declined due to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and increased selling expenses. Market Confidence and Future Outlook Toyota’s strong financial performance, innovative approach, and consistent growth have instilled confidence in investors. As the automotive industry continues to evolve, Toyota’s hybrid focus positions it well for the future.
NYSE:TMLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Nikkei to form a higher low?JP225YJPY - 24h expiry Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Short term bias is mildly bullish. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 37830 level. We look to Buy at 37830 (stop at 37530) Our profit targets will be 38580 and 38680 Resistance: 38570 / 41135 / 42120 Support: 36990 / 35705 / 34425 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225YJPYLong
by OANDA
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers. So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons: • The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative. • Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves. • Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term. • Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention. However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions. What's Next for the Yen? The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including: • The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease. • Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation. • Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market. The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
Long
by bryandowningqln
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad. It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed. source: Bank of Japan
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Update from the BoJ decision todaySince January 2023, the USDJPY has been on an astronomic rise, driven by the significant divergence between FOMC and BoJ monetary policies. The initial market expectation was for the BoJ to intervene when the USDJPY approaches the 155 price level. Today the Yen has come under fresh selling pressure, as the BoJ kept rates on hold, taking the USDJPY above 156. Could 158 at the top of the channel be the next target intervention level? From the BoJ today Kept rates on Hold No comments about an intervention Yen continues to weaken with USDJPY climbing above 156
by JinDao_Tai
Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI Macro Monday 43 Japan Composite PMI – Japan’s Business Activity (Flash PMI is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024) Unfortunately, I had great difficulty in locating the Japan Composite Flash PMI in chart form on TradingView (it appears to not be available). Instead we will briefly cover the Japan Composite PMI chart which is the final PMI released later on Tuesday 7th May 2024 (for April). We can review the Flash PMI figures that are released tomorrow regardless for an indication. The flash consists of about 90% of the final PMI input thus is a good forward view on how the final PMI will come in on the 7th May 2024. Over the past three weeks we have covered the following three indicators for Japan: 1.Macro Monday 41 - Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 🚨 Pessimistic but with an improving long term trend. A positive ranging move from 28.6 in Nov 2022 to 39.5 in April 2024. This is the highest reading in c. 5 years, a significant milestone and trend higher. A move above 40.86 would signify a move above the historical average level of consumer sentiment (less pessimistic, as only above 50 it optimistic). 2. Macro Monday 42 - Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) ✅ Business Optimism is high with the Japan Reuters Tankan Index standing at +9, down from the previous month's 10 however firmly in the positive (above zero). 3. Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI ✅ THIS WEEK we take a quick look at the Japan Composite PMI which is firmly in the positive at 51.7 (above 50 is expansionary and below 50 is contractionary). As you can see from the chart below we have been in an uptrend since Nov 2023 The Japan Composite PMI for March 2024 was 51.7, indicating continued expansion in private sector activity (businesses). This matches the optimistic business sentiment in the Japan Reuters Tankan Index. This marked the third consecutive month of growth and the strongest pace since late September in PMI. The service sector saw solid expansion, while the decline in manufacturing production softened slightly. New orders accelerated to a seven-month peak, primarily led by the service economy. Employment growth was the steepest since May 2023, and there was a marginal rise in outstanding business. Input prices expanded robustly, leading businesses to increase their selling prices at the most pronounced rate for seven months. Overall, the PMI provides insight into the health of Japan’s private sector economy The overview of the past three weeks we covered and what they broadly tell us? 👇🏻 Japan Businesses are in expansion and optimistic whilst the Japanese Consumer remains reserved In contrast to the positive Business Sentiment and Business Activity in Japan, the Japanese consumer is not as optimistic and appears to be trailing business behind sentiment(RTI) and activity (PMI). The Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) came in at 39.5 for March. Whilst this was the highest reading in 5 years for the Japan CCI and demonstrated a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022, the Japan CCI remains below its historical average level of 40.86. Despite a sizable recovery since Nov 2022, the current 39.5 suggests the Japanese Consumer is still more pessimistic than the historical average. Whats the Japan PMI made up of? The Japan Composite PMI is a weighted average of several key components that provide insight into the health of the private sector economy. Here are the main components : New Orders (30%): Measures the volume of new orders received by businesses. An increase in new orders suggests growing demand and potential future production. Output (25%): Reflects the level of production or business activity. Higher output indicates expansion, while lower output signals contraction. Employment (20%): Tracks changes in employment levels. A rising employment index indicates job creation and economic growth. Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%): Monitors the time it takes for suppliers to deliver goods or services. Longer delivery times may indicate supply chain disruptions. Stocks of Purchases (10%): Measures inventory levels. An increase in stocks suggests businesses are building up inventories, while a decrease may indicate reduced demand. The above components collectively provide a comprehensive view of economic conditions in Japan’s private sector How to read the PMI chart The Composite PMI varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating overall growth compared to the previous month, and below 50 indicating contraction. PUKA
J
by PukaCharts
BOJ to boost the yen this Friday? In addition to the eagerly awaited US data slated for release this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for Friday. Market expectations lean towards the BOJ maintaining its current rate settings during Friday's announcement. However, analysts and investors will scrutinize the central bank's commentary for insights into its stance on inflation, as well as indicators like consumption and wages. A recent forecast from the Japan Center for Economic Research suggests that a majority of economists anticipate at least one more rate hike from the BOJ before year end. Some market observers speculate that the BOJ's next rate adjustment could be influenced by the depreciation of the yen. However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has dismissed this speculation, asserting that this won't directly dictate the central bank's monetary policy decisions. Ueda remains optimistic about wage growth prospects and hints at the possibility of another rate hike if trend inflation shows signs of reaching their projected level. While we may not see a rate hike this Friday, Deutsche Bank does speculate that BoJ might be able to support the Yen by either removing its JGB purchasing guidelines from its statement or revising them to enhance the flexibility of its purchasing operations
by BlackBull_Markets